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The Effects of COVID-19 on Dietary Adequacy and the Role of Markets and Trade in Ensuring Access to Nutritious Food

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This AKADEMIYA2063-USAID learning event is the first in a series of cross-mission policy learning events. It focuses on findings from AKADEMIYA2063 workstreams related to diets, markets and trade.

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The Effects of COVID-19 on Dietary Adequacy and the Role of Markets and Trade in Ensuring Access to Nutritious Food

  1. 1. THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON DIETARY ADEQUACY AND THE ROLE OF MARKETS AND TRADE IN ENSURING ACCESS TO NUTRITIOUS FOOD Dakar, January 2021 AKADEMIYA2063 The Expertise We Need. The Africa We Want.
  2. 2. AKADEMIYA2063 COVID-19 WORKSTREAMS Akademiya2063 examines the effects of COVID-19 and their implications through four workstreams:  Food production systems disruption  Tracking food staples price changes  Global trade disruption and the effects on economic growth and livelihoods  Mapping community vulnerability to identify potential major hot spots 2
  3. 3. TYPOLOGY OF LOCAL FOOD MARKETS AND MARKET NETWORKS IN SENEGAL: THE CASE OF MILLET  Globally, millet markets are highly connected.  The markets furthest from the production areas are poorly connected.  Louga market is the most connected millet market in Senegal while Sedhiou and Tambacounda are the least connected markets. 3
  4. 4. DISTRIBUTION OF THE MAGNITUDES OF PRICE DEVIATIONS ACROSS RURAL MILLET MARKETS IN SENEGAL  Most millet markets (67%) showed very modest price deviations (-5 to 5%) in March.  In June, almost a half (46%) of millet markets showed price deviations greater than 15%. 4
  5. 5. CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE 2019 AND 2020 (%) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Millet Local maize Imported Maize Sorghum Ordinary broken rice Perfumed broken rice Local rice Pricechange(%) Food items Rural 2019 2020 5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Millet Local maize Imported Maize Sorghum Ordinary broken rice Perfumed broken rice Local rice Pricechange(%) Food items Urban 2019 2020  For most crops, price changes in April-June 2020 exceeded those during the same period in 2019.  Exceptions are local maize and some rice varieties.  Particularly large price wedges for millet in rural areas and millet and sorghum in urban areas.
  6. 6. MARKED DIFFERENCES IN MARKET BEHAVIOR 6  Rising staple prices in Senegal vs. falling prices in Malawi and Mozambique  Differences are partly explained by countries’ contrasting roles in regional trade 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Proportionofmarkets Higher than predictions Lower than predictions Share of markets prices higher than predictions: Millet, Senegal Share of markets prices lower than predictions: Maize, Mozambique Share of markets prices lower than predictions: Maize, Malawi
  7. 7. CALORIE AND MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES Total consumption (per day, AME) Consumption adequacy (%) Urban Rural Recommended intake Urban Rural Kilocalories (kcal) 2561.1 2307.1 2750 82.6 76.0 Proteins (g.) 62.7 60.8 50 89.7 87.5 Calcium (mg.) 254.1 177.3 1000 25.5 17.8 Iron (mg.) 8.5 13.1 27.4 31.3 46.7 Zinc (mg.) 8.4 8.3 14 58.7 57.2 Folate (mcg.) 244.1 235.4 400 58.0 54.6 Vitamin B12 (mcg.) 1.0 0.4 2.4 41.1 18.5 Vitamin A (mcg.) 2094.9 739.3 600 85.5 56.1  Compared to calories and proteins, for which Senegalese households consume at least three fourths of the recommended levels on average, micronutrient intake is far below recommended benchmarks with the exception of vitamin A.  Nutrient adequacy for urban households is less than 60% of the recommended intake for zinc and folate and is as low as 41% for vitamin B12, 31% for iron and 26% for calcium.  Vitamin A adequacy for urban families is much higher, with levels close to 86%.  Except for iron, for which adequacy levels reach 47%, and zinc, protein and folate, for which adequacies are roughly the same as in urban areas, rural families perform considerably worse for vitamin A (56%), vitamin B12 (19%), and calcium (18%). 7
  8. 8. PRICE ELASTICITY OF CALORIES AND MICRONUTRIENTS (%)  Vitamin A is a good for the poor, or Giffen good, meaning that the demand adjusts in the same direction as the price change. This behavior is more consistent among urban households compared to rural households.  Except for meat and fish prices and oil prices (in rural areas), demand for vitamin B12 tends to rise when prices rise and fall when prices fall.  The price elasticity of demand for folate is positive for oil in rural areas. 8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 Vitamine A Vitamine B12 Folate Zinc Iron Calcium Protein Calories Rural Cereals Pulses Vegetables and tubers Fruit Meat & fish Milk Oil Sugar -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 Vitamine A Vitamine B12 Folate Zinc Iron Calcium Protein Calories Urban Cereals Pulses Vegetables and tubers Fruit Meat & fish Milk Oil Sugar
  9. 9. IMPACT OF CHANGES IN PRICES OF CEREALS IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2020 ON FOOD NUTRIENT DEMAND 9  Increases in prices of cereals are expected to decrease demand for key micronutrients as well as calories  Projected demand changes are moderate, given the limited magnitude of cereals price increases (1.8% in urban areas and 2.9% in rural areas).  However, given the already pervasive nutrient deficiency in Senegal, every negative shock increases households’ vulnerability.
  10. 10. NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT, SENEGAL (1/3)  On average, calcium intake is low in Senegal with little spatial variability across urban and rural areas, and departments  Iron is mainly provided through the consumption of millet, The maps point to lower deficiency levels in the Bassin Arachidier. Urban area Rural area 10 Household adequacy in calcium (%) Household adequacy in calcium (%) Household adequacy in iron (%) Household adequacy in iron (%)
  11. 11.  The consumption of rice (in addition to millet) is an important source of zinc intake  Most folate intake in Senegal results from the consumption of pulses, especially cowpeas but also peanuts. Urban area Rural area NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT, SENEGAL (2/3) 11 Household adequacy in folate (%) Household adequacy in folate (%) Household adequacy in zinc (%) Household adequacy in zinc (%)
  12. 12.  The overall level of nutrient intake is very low for vitamin B12  The rural areas of Vélingara and Bakel as well as Linguère perform slightly better, which aligns to some extent with the location of various types of livestock  Urban households on average have markedly higher adequacy levels of vitamin A compared to their rural counterparts  The production of palm oil in Casamance could explain its good performance in terms of vitamin A. Urban area Rural area NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT, SENEGAL (3/3) 12 Household adequacy in vitamin A (%) Household adequacy in vitamin A (%) Household adequacy in vitamin B12 (%) Household adequacy in vitamin B12 (%)
  13. 13.  Partial analysis but very informative.  COVID-19 induced price and income shocks have the potential to exacerbate household/community micronutrient deficiencies.  Impacts are heterogeneous across locations and types of food nutrients.  The government's food distribution program is a good initiative that could be improved through better targeting to mitigate the likely impact on these households.  Better planning and implementation of confinement and other restrictions to minimize disruption to market operations and ensure the continuity of food flows between surplus and deficit areas.  Better targeting and rapid identification of affected areas to avoid large-scale disruptions. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 13
  14. 14.  Compute three types of adequacy measures corresponding to nutrient production, market and consumption.  Explore potential to bridge nutrient gaps through domestic market linkages and crossborder trade.  Identify opportunities to facilitate movement of nutrients from surplus to deficit areas at local and regional levels  Align country’s NAIP targets to nutrient gaps;  Develop a nutrition smart trade matrix for the region. FUTURE DIRECTIONS 14
  15. 15. FURTHER INFORMATION WWW.AKADEMIYA2063.ORG/EVENTS.PHP?LANG=EN WWW.RESAKSS.ORG 15
  16. 16. Thank You

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