1.
THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON DIETARY
ADEQUACY AND THE ROLE OF MARKETS AND
TRADE IN ENSURING ACCESS TO NUTRITIOUS
FOOD
Dakar, January 2021
AKADEMIYA2063
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2.
AKADEMIYA2063 COVID-19 WORKSTREAMS
Akademiya2063 examines the effects of
COVID-19 and their implications through
four workstreams:
 Food production systems disruption
 Tracking food staples price changes
 Global trade disruption and the
effects on economic growth and
livelihoods
 Mapping community vulnerability to
identify potential major hot spots
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3.
TYPOLOGY OF LOCAL FOOD MARKETS AND MARKET NETWORKS IN
SENEGAL: THE CASE OF MILLET
 Globally, millet markets are highly connected.
 The markets furthest from the production areas are poorly connected.
 Louga market is the most connected millet market in Senegal while Sedhiou and Tambacounda are the
least connected markets.
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4.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE MAGNITUDES OF PRICE DEVIATIONS ACROSS
RURAL MILLET MARKETS IN SENEGAL
 Most millet markets (67%) showed very modest price deviations (-5 to 5%) in March.
 In June, almost a half (46%) of millet markets showed price deviations greater than 15%.
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5.
CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES BETWEEN APRIL AND
JUNE 2019 AND 2020 (%)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Millet Local maize Imported
Maize
Sorghum Ordinary
broken rice
Perfumed
broken rice
Local rice
Pricechange(%)
Food items
Rural
2019 2020
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Millet Local maize Imported
Maize
Sorghum Ordinary
broken rice
Perfumed
broken rice
Local rice
Pricechange(%)
Food items
Urban
2019 2020
 For most crops, price changes in April-June 2020 exceeded those during the same
period in 2019.
 Exceptions are local maize and some rice varieties.
 Particularly large price wedges for millet in rural areas and millet and sorghum in urban
areas.

6.
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN MARKET BEHAVIOR
6
 Rising staple prices in Senegal vs. falling prices in
Malawi and Mozambique
 Differences are partly explained by countries’
contrasting roles in regional trade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Proportionofmarkets
Higher than predictions Lower than predictions
Share of markets prices higher
than predictions: Millet, Senegal
Share of markets prices lower than
predictions: Maize, Mozambique
Share of markets prices lower than
predictions: Maize, Malawi

7.
CALORIE AND MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES
Total consumption (per day, AME) Consumption adequacy (%)
Urban Rural
Recommended
intake
Urban Rural
Kilocalories
(kcal)
2561.1 2307.1 2750 82.6 76.0
Proteins (g.) 62.7 60.8 50 89.7 87.5
Calcium (mg.) 254.1 177.3 1000 25.5 17.8
Iron (mg.) 8.5 13.1 27.4 31.3 46.7
Zinc (mg.) 8.4 8.3 14 58.7 57.2
Folate (mcg.) 244.1 235.4 400 58.0 54.6
Vitamin B12
(mcg.)
1.0 0.4 2.4 41.1 18.5
Vitamin A (mcg.) 2094.9 739.3 600 85.5 56.1
 Compared to calories and proteins, for which
Senegalese households consume at least three
fourths of the recommended levels on average,
micronutrient intake is far below recommended
benchmarks with the exception of vitamin A.
 Nutrient adequacy for urban households is less
than 60% of the recommended intake for zinc
and folate and is as low as 41% for vitamin B12,
31% for iron and 26% for calcium.
 Vitamin A adequacy for urban families is much
higher, with levels close to 86%.
 Except for iron, for which adequacy levels reach
47%, and zinc, protein and folate, for which
adequacies are roughly the same as in urban
areas, rural families perform considerably worse
for vitamin A (56%), vitamin B12 (19%), and
calcium (18%).
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8.
PRICE ELASTICITY OF CALORIES AND MICRONUTRIENTS (%)
 Vitamin A is a good for the poor, or Giffen good, meaning that the demand adjusts in the same direction as
the price change. This behavior is more consistent among urban households compared to rural households.
 Except for meat and fish prices and oil prices (in rural areas), demand for vitamin B12 tends to rise when
prices rise and fall when prices fall.
 The price elasticity of demand for folate is positive for oil in rural areas.
8
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Vitamine A Vitamine B12 Folate Zinc Iron Calcium Protein Calories
Rural
Cereals Pulses Vegetables and tubers Fruit Meat & fish Milk Oil Sugar
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Vitamine A Vitamine
B12
Folate Zinc Iron Calcium Protein Calories
Urban
Cereals Pulses Vegetables and tubers Fruit Meat & fish Milk Oil Sugar

9.
IMPACT OF CHANGES IN PRICES OF CEREALS IN THE SECOND
QUARTER OF 2020 ON FOOD NUTRIENT DEMAND
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 Increases in prices of cereals are expected to decrease demand for key micronutrients as well as calories
 Projected demand changes are moderate, given the limited magnitude of cereals price increases (1.8% in
urban areas and 2.9% in rural areas).
 However, given the already pervasive nutrient deficiency in Senegal, every negative shock increases
households’ vulnerability.

10.
NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT,
SENEGAL (1/3)
 On average, calcium intake
is low in Senegal with little
spatial variability across
urban and rural areas, and
departments
 Iron is mainly provided
through the consumption
of millet, The maps point
to lower deficiency levels
in the Bassin Arachidier.
Urban area Rural area
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Household adequacy
in calcium (%)
Household adequacy
in calcium (%)
Household adequacy
in iron (%) Household adequacy
in iron (%)

11.
 The consumption of rice
(in addition to millet) is
an important source of
zinc intake
 Most folate intake in
Senegal results from
the consumption of
pulses, especially
cowpeas but also
peanuts.
Urban area Rural area
NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT,
SENEGAL (2/3)
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Household adequacy
in folate (%)
Household adequacy
in folate (%)
Household adequacy
in zinc (%)
Household adequacy
in zinc (%)

12.
 The overall level of nutrient
intake is very low for vitamin B12
 The rural areas of Vélingara and
Bakel as well as Linguère
perform slightly better, which
aligns to some extent with the
location of various types of
livestock
 Urban households on average
have markedly higher adequacy
levels of vitamin A compared to
their rural counterparts
 The production of palm oil in
Casamance could explain its
good performance in terms of
vitamin A.
Urban area Rural area
NUTRIENT ADEQUACY LEVELS BY AREA AND DEPARTMENT,
SENEGAL (3/3)
12
Household adequacy
in vitamin A (%) Household adequacy
in vitamin A (%)
Household adequacy
in vitamin B12 (%)
Household adequacy
in vitamin B12 (%)

13.
 Partial analysis but very informative.
 COVID-19 induced price and income shocks have the potential to exacerbate
household/community micronutrient deficiencies.
 Impacts are heterogeneous across locations and types of food nutrients.
 The government's food distribution program is a good initiative that could be improved
through better targeting to mitigate the likely impact on these households.
 Better planning and implementation of confinement and other restrictions to minimize
disruption to market operations and ensure the continuity of food flows between
surplus and deficit areas.
 Better targeting and rapid identification of affected areas to avoid large-scale
disruptions.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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14.
 Compute three types of adequacy measures corresponding to nutrient production, market
and consumption.
 Explore potential to bridge nutrient gaps through domestic market linkages and crossborder
trade.
 Identify opportunities to facilitate movement of nutrients from surplus to deficit areas
at local and regional levels
 Align country’s NAIP targets to nutrient gaps;
 Develop a nutrition smart trade matrix for the region.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
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15.
FURTHER INFORMATION
WWW.AKADEMIYA2063.ORG/EVENTS.PHP?LANG=EN
WWW.RESAKSS.ORG
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16.
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