1. Conflict has arisen between India and China over water resources from the Brahmaputra River, as both countries face water scarcity issues. China has begun constructing dams on the river, worrying India about downstream water availability.
2. India is concerned about the impacts on its agricultural economy and flood management. China views the river as an opportunity for hydropower and addressing water scarcity in Southern China.
3. Opportunities for cooperation include existing dialogues, potential water treaties, and joint infrastructure projects that could help equitably manage the shared river basin. However, both countries have competing interests that must be addressed.
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Barter Master Round 2 Submission
- Team Whiplash,IIFTDelhi
Problem Background
With per capita availability of 1,123 cubic meters1
and 1,500 cubic meters in India and China2
respectively, against a global average of 6,000 cubic meters1
, conflict regarding the Brahmaputra has
been brimming since early 2000s.
Root Cause
Conspicuousness of the Chinese Government about its developmental plans:
Zam HydropowerStation: Afteryearsof inconclusive indications,China operationalized the 2.5
billion kilowatt-hour project in Tibet in October 20153
Northern rerouting– China’sallegedplansonreroutingwaterintowater-scarce SouthernChina
has raised concerns4
Major stakeholders in the conflict – India, China, Bangladesh
Southern China housing ~40% of China’s population has only ~20% of China’s water1
64% of the Brahmaputra Basin (housing625 millionpeople5
) lies in India and livelihoods in the
agrarian economy are heavily dependent on the resource.
Floodshave affected lakhsoflivesin India (3 lakh people hit in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh -
July 2015)6
.
Reduced water flow could cause salination in Bangladesh (like the Ganga basin)
The Chinese Perspective
1. Large potential for hydropower
Withroughly one-tenthofthe country’s entire powergenerationcapacity7
, China’sprerogative
to tap hydropower has conviction and is a major threat to India’s downstream water needs.
China’stake: Run-of-the-riverprojectshave negligibleimpactonflow. Also, 70% of the water is
added in India and hence damming is not a concern7
.
2. Scarcity of water in Southern China
Brahmaputra is a lucrative source of water for water-scarce and mineral-poor Southern China8
3. Doctrine of prior appropriation
China has secured water rights over the Brahmaputra by being its first beneficial user through
the Zam HydropowerProject,thusstrengtheningtheir stance ondiplomaticresistance of future
hydel projects by India.
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The Indian Perspective
1. Flood Data Pact
Insufficientinformation has resulted in flash floods in the past. The renewal of the Flood Data
pact in2013, ensuringtwice-a-daydataflow from China in return of information on data usage
for floodmitigationinthe monsoonseason9
saw political leadersstressingonjointco-operation,
a welcome step.
2. Agrarian economy in underdeveloped north-eastern states
With separatist political turbulence in Arunachal Pradesh preventing macroscopic economic
development,the economyislargelyagrarianand Indiaisrightfullyconcernedaboutthe supply
of irrigation water from the dammed (in China) Brahmaputra.
Also,large diurnal variationsinflow(upto400 percent) owingtorepeatedpondage incascaded
projects spells doom for aquatic life and hence river-water fishing in India7
.
3. Lower riparian right
Withall 14 hydel projectsstill undergoingplanningand facingseriousconcernsregardingwater
flow post the Zam Project, India has failed to execute its strategy to capture lower riparian
right9
.
Negotiation Opportunities
1. SACIWaters ‘Brahmaputra Dialogue’
The Brahmaputra Dialogue conductedbythe SouthAsiaConsortium for Interdisciplinary Water
ResourcesStudies is an important source for Track 2 and Track 1.5 discussions10
. The agenda of
the next convention should be prioritized on:
i. Joint protection of communities from hazards pertaining to shared water
resources
Takeaways: Diplomatic move towards co-operation
ii. Signing the UN Water Courses Convention:
Takeaways: Equitable and reasonable utilization, prevention of significant harm,
notification of planned measures and information sharing11
.
2. BCIM Economic Co-operation
As an additional provisionof the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar co-operation12
, an agri-SEZ
(involving agribusiness co-operatives) could be conceptualized in Arunachal Pradesh utilizing
agricultural produce in China as well as India, and inland waterways-facilitated export
following BIWTA regulations13
, further downstream through Bangladesh. Indian plans to
overhaul rivers for shipping would also fuel this initiative14
.
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3. Brahmaputra Board
With over 1 lakh crore rupees of funding15
, the Brahmaputra Board could fund a mega joint
hydel-power project with Myanmar and China, in India.
Takeaways: SupportfromMyanmar innegotiations,preventionof future hydel projectsinChina
4. Multilateral water treaty
Extending the October 2013 MoU on co-operation on trans-border rivers11
, an all-basin
multilateral watertreatywiththe financial assistance of international development banks (like
the Indus Treaty supported by World Bank16
) could have the following provisions:
i. Prevention of northern rerouting of the Yarlung Zangbo
ii. Prevention of dams larger than a certain catchment area (for both India and
China)
iii. Relaxation of BIWTA regulations for supporting agricultural trade in the basin
iv. Information exchange for flood mitigation
References
1. http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/97fuaF2aQkO9IjPiPAjMyL/Six-charts-that-explain-Indias-
water-crisis.html
2. http://www.pwccn.com/webmedia/doc/635097658425042854_cn_water_scar_jul2013.pdf
3. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/china-operationalises-biggest-
dam-on-brahmaputra-in-tibet-india-worried/articleshow/49334904.cms
4. http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/brahmaputra.htm#r1
5. https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~tetho20z/classweb/dw1/brahmaputra.html
6. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/brahmaputra-crosses-danger-mark-as-
floods-hit-three-lakh-people-in-assam/
7. http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/water-wars-china-india-and-the-great-dam-rush/
8. http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/38087.htm
9. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-china-renew-flood-data-pact-on-
brahmaputra/article4732965.ece
10. www.saciwaters.org/brahmaputra-dialogue/
11. Case Study on the Water Management of the Yaluzangbu/Brahmaputra River by Ziyi Huang
12. http://cpd.org.bd/index.php/about-us/bangladesh-china-india-myanmar-bcim-pursuing-
regional-economic-cooperation/
13. http://www.biwta.gov.bd/website/?page_id=706
14. http://www.thethirdpole.net/2015/07/24/india-plans-to-overhaul-rivers-for-shipping/
15. http://www.brahmaputraboard.gov.in/
16. www.nih.ernet.in/rbis/Indus_treat.htm