Results from the 2011 Future of Open Source Survey, presented at the Open Source Business Conference in San Francisco, CA.

1. Future of Open Source
5TH Annual Leadership Keynote
Michael Skok

2. The Panel
Jim Whitehurst Tom Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle
President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director
@entrecapitalist
2

3. Welcome!
Industry
Investment
Impact
Direction
3

4. Collaborators
4

5. Who we heard from.
(you!)
5

6. Survey Response
455
6

7. Survey Respondents
Vendors Non-Vendors
4060 %
7

8. Survey Respondent’s Titles
8

9. Agenda
Industry
Impact
Investment
Direction
9

10. Is a Turbulent Economy Good or Bad
for Open Source?
100%
2009 2010 2011
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Good Bad
10

11. What Makes OSS Attractive?
2008 2009 2010 2011
Lower costs Lower costs Lower costs Freedom from
VENDOR lock-in
Freedom from Superior security Freedom from
VENDOR Lock-in VENDOR lock-in
Lower costs
Access to code Freedom from Rapid pace of
libraries VENDOR lock-in innovation
Flexibility
11

12. Tipping Point – What’s Driving Adoption?
Other
Mobility Vendor
3%
7% Lock-in
18%
Quality 13%
Economic
15% Downturn
14%
Private Sector
Adoption
15%
15% Public Sector
OSS Adoption
Experience
12

13. Top 5 Barriers to OSS Selection
Lack of internal technical skills 126 responses
Unfamiliarity with open source solutions 122
Lack of formal commercial vendor support 98
Legal concerns about licensing 84
Does not conform to internal policies 65
13

14. Agenda
Industry
Investment
Impact
Direction
14

15. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS
Over the Next 5 Years?
Mobile
MOST Database
OS

16. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS
Over the Next 5 Years?
MOST = Mobile New Mobile OSS Projects
4,000
3,000
 3,800 new mobile
projects in 2010
2,000
 94% speficied, target
1,000
Apple iOS or Android
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Thanks to our collaborator Black Duck

17. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS
Over the Next 5 Years?
“Code can be Office
commoditized more Productivity
easily than trained
people, ingrained ERP/CRM LEAST
business processes Business
and mission critical Intelligence
data”
Michael Skok
17

18. How is The Use of OSS Components
Impacting the Manageability of Applications?
More
Less
None
18

19. Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today
Other
Custom
8% Development
Ad-hoc
26%
Support 17%
Value-add 15%
Subscriptions 20%
Support
14%
Subscriptions
“Closed-source”
Licensing
19

20. Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today,
and 2 years out…
Other Advertisements
Custom
8% Development
Ad-hoc
4% 26%
Support 17% 9% 17%
18% +2
Years
25%
Value-add 15% 20%
Subscriptions 7% 20%
Support
14%
Subscriptions
“Closed-source”
Licensing
20

21. What Licensing Strategy do you use?
(vendor only question)
45
Responses
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
For definitions refer to
21

22. Impact on OSS Vendors?
Mobile
Devices
SaaS
App Stores
Public
Cloud Private
Cloud
22

23. Impact on OSS Vendors – Cloudy…
200 500
160 400
120 300
80 200
40 100
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
New OSS Cloud Projects Cumulative Projects
*Projects specifically referencing cloud. Many OSS projects are suitable for cloud but don’t specify it.
Thanks to our Collaborator Black Duck

24. Cool OSS Projects mentioned…
24

25. Up & Coming OSS Companies
2009 2010 2011
25

26. OSS Investment – by the numbers
$466M $7.0M $112M
24% 22% 72%
Dollars Deals Ave Deal Seed,
Invested Completed Size Series A
2009
$375M 73 $5.7M $65M
2.7%
71
26

27. OSS Deployed in Your Organization
96 94
89
85
75
Responses
67
62
42
0%-
25% 25%
75%-100%
-50% 50%-75%
In 5
Today
Years Percentage of OSS is Deployed
27

28. IN 5 YEARS: What % of Software
Purchases Will be OSS?
50% or more on OSS
2016
2015
2014
2013
28

29. Wrap-up: The Open Source Path
29

30. OSS in the Mainstream…
Growing
Public Sector Investments
Private Sector
Adoption Adoption
Avoid Vendor
Lower Lock-In
Costs
30

31. … But Not Yet Mature!
 Internal technical skills
 Unfamiliarity
 Vendor support
31

32. Watch for Path Traps
 Innovation vs. bloat
 Maintenance costs
 DevOps
32

33. Opportunities…
OSS can:
• Innovate
• Lead
33

34. A big thank you from North Bridge to…
Jim Whitehurst Tom Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle
President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director
34

35. FutureOpensource.net
35