This document discusses trends in media, technology, and consumer attention. It notes that the average person's day is fragmented into 120 15-minute periods of attention across various activities like work, commuting, TV, and social media. Emerging technologies like virtual reality and the "internet of things" will further divide attention. The number of media and tech companies serving the next 4 billion users will increase as more offer specialized services across areas like messaging, content, commerce, connectivity and more. The future will see more independent players in each layer and the rise of new attention-grabbing formats, quantified data about humans and the world, and fan-created content dwarfing professional content.

1. THINKAGAIN:MEDIA+TECH 2014
MichaelJ.Wolf | @mjw

2. 2

3. 9HOURS
2HOURS
3HOURS
7HOURS
5HOURS
1
ATTENTIONISNOT
AZERO-SUMGAME

4. OTHER NIGHTTIME
ACTIVITIES
SLEEP
MULTITASKED TV,
DIGITAL AND
OTHER MEDIA
MULTITASKED WORK
WITH MEDIA
FOCUSED
WORK
MULTITASKED
AUDIO AND OTHER
PASSIVE MEDIA
COMMUTING, MEALS,
OTHER DAYTIME
DEDICATED TV
8HOURS
2HOURS
3HOURS
7HOURS
5HOURS
3HOURS
1HOUR
1HOUR
30HOURSINA24HOURDAY
REALITY OF A TYPICAL PERSON
IN THE U.S. AVERAGE DAY

5. ATTENTION15MINUTESATATIME
SLEEP
FOCUSED WORK
MULTITASKED WORK
WITH MEDIA
!
COMMUTING, MEALS,
OTHER DAYTIME
!
DEDICATED TV
MULTI-TASKED TV, DIGITAL
AND OTHER MEDIA
!
MULTI-TASKED AUDIO AND
OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA
!
OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES
A TYPICAL 30 HOUR DAY: 120 15 MIN. MOMENTS

6. $2.6 $1.5 $9.0 $1.5
$1.0 $.7 $.5
BILLIONDOLLARSONLESSTHANFIVEMINUTES
VALUATIONS IN BILLIONS
$.8 $.9

9. 1
BILLION
1
BILLION
2
BILLION
1.7
BILLION
300
MILLION
WHOWILLSERVE
THENEXT4BILLIONUSERS?

10. THENEXTFOURBILLION?
1.2
BILLION
1.2
BILLION
2.3
BILLION
2
BILLION
350
MILLION
$360-$730/YR $1,500-$20,000/YR$730-$1,500/YRLESS THAN $360/YR > $20,000/YR
SUBSIDIZE ONBOARD OPTIMIZE
INTERNET
ACCESS

11. REPLACEMENTCYCLETRENDS
HIGH
PRICE
LOW
REPLACEMENT CYCLESLOW FAST
SMART
TVS
SMART-
PHONES
PHABLETS
DESKTOP
LAPTOP
TABLETS
GAMING
CONSOLE

12. OPTIMIZE:
REVENUEPERUSER

13. MEDIA+TECHARPU
ANNUAL ARPU COMPARISON ACROSS SUBSCRIPTIONS, COMMERCE, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT AND ADVERTISING
0111335556771415213434434653
123147
257
285307
633
684
760
1227
1322
1405
1475

14. MEDIA+TECHARPU:SUBSCRIPTIONS
0156
123147
633
684
760
1227
1322
1405
1475

15. MEDIA+TECHARPU:COMMERCE
15
34
53
307

16. MEDIA+TECHARPU:MEDIA&ENTERTAINMENT
11
5
14
21
34

17. MEDIA+TECHARPU:ADVERTISING
33
5
77
46

18. MORELAYERS
TOBEAPLAYER
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
✔ ✔ ✔

19. SEARCHINGFORVR
OCULUS RIFT GOOGLE CARDBOARD
SONY MORPHEUS DAFT PUNK

20. MEDIA+TECHLAYERS
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING
VIDEO CONTENT
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA
INTERNET OF THINGS
SEARCH
MARKETPLACE
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND
CONNECTIVITY
OS
HARDWARE
PAYMENT
STORAGE
ADS/TECH

21. MEDIA+TECHCAPABILITIESMATRIX
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
VIDEO CONTENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
INTERNET OF THINGS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
SEARCH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
MARKETPLACE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND ✔ ✔ ✔
CONNECTIVITY ✔ ✔ ✔
OS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
HARDWARE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
PAYMENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
STORAGE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
ADS/TECH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA ✔ ✔ ✔

22. WHAT’SNEXT?
INDEPENDENT PLAYERS IN EACH LAYER
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING
VIDEO CONTENT
INTERNET OF THINGS
SEARCH
MARKETPLACE
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND
CONNECTIVITY
OS
HARDWARE
PAYMENT
STORAGE
ADS/TECH
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA

23. ANEWNETWORKISEMERGING

24. THEQUANTIFIEDHUMAN

25. THEQUANTIFIEDWORLD

26. THEQUANTIFIEDNETWORK

27. LESSONSFROMTHEINTERNETFRIDGE
1999 2007 20112010 20242006 20082001

28. CONTENTMUSTSERVE
THENEWREALITYOFATTENTION

29. 2013

30. 2013

31. 2014
SLIDESHOWS VINE MEMES INFOGRAPHICS
ANIMATED GIFS LISTICLES FUNNY FAKE REVIEWS SECRET

32. FANCULTUREWILLBE
ASIMPORTANTTO
ATTENTIONASSOCIAL

33. FANCONTENTALREADYDWARFSPROFESSIONALCONTENT
HOURS OF CONTENT
110 542,000
220 142,000
100 63,000
150 131,000
10 83,000
NETWORK LIBRARY FAN CREATED CONTENT

34. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY

35. 35
90 52MILLION
COPIES
SOLD
LANGUAGES
PUBLISHED
FASTEST-SELLING
PAPERBACK
OF ALL TIME
$

36. 36

38. THANKYOU!
www.activate.com
@mjw