Europe's Groundwater

How might future climatic change affect Europe’s groundwater resources? Page 1
How might future climate change affect Europe’s
groundwater resources?
The security of groundwater has traditionally been viewed from a humanitarian aspect; and
rightly so with 75% of European residents relying on this as their source of water (European
Commission, 2008). However, there is an increasing effort to understand the environmental and
ecological implications of near-future groundwater alterations (Skinner, 2008). Furthermore, as
the scientific community continues to examine the potential impacts of future climatic change –
there is a concerted effort being made by hydrologists to understand how groundwater resources
might alter due to these climatic variations. Although, as stated by Green et al (2011), these
studies have only recently been conducted, as the attention of hydrologists has previously been
focused on how climactic change might influence surface waters.
It must be stated from the outset that the ways in which this essay states that the climate might
change, are much diluted. The complexities of this subject of unfathomably extensive, and
compressing them into this essay is simply impractical. This essay serves as a summation on the
current understanding of how future climatic change might influence groundwater resources
within Europe. It begins by establishing how the climate is predicted to change. From this, it is
examined how the earth’s basic hydrological processes might alter due to these climatic changes;
and how this will influence groundwater resources. Various aspects of groundwater’s importance
are also discussed; and how detrimental it could be if this resource was to be irreversibly
damaged. The essay concludes with a brief summary of what has gone before, adjoined by some
comments on Europe’s future groundwater resources.
One will note that speculative words such as ‘could’ and ‘might’ are extensively used throughout
the essay. Due to the fact that hydrologists cannot explicitly predict the future of groundwater
(and the climate), there is a presence of uncertainty within the science as to the extent of the
changes that are expected to affect groundwater resources. However, it is fundamentally clear,
through the use of mathematical modelling and extensive studies, groundwater resources are
extremely sensitive and must be maintained via a significant anthropological effort.

It’s estimated that there is 1.4 billion km3 of water on earth: of which 98.3% is ‘unusable’ as it is
either in the oceans (as salt water), or is locked up in the cryosphere as ice and snow (Maidment,
1993). As ~69% of the earth’s fresh water is stored in ice and snow within the mentioned
cryosphere, only ~30% is realistically accessible to humans as it is stored as groundwater (with
~1% being stored within the atmosphere, biosphere etc). From these statistics, it is obvious why
understanding and protecting our groundwater resources is of a fundamental importance.
Climatic change sensu lato is without doubt, the single-most debated topic across the academic
spectrum; with multiple scientific disciplines and a multinational organisation, namely the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), being concerned with it. With atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels seen as the driver for climatic change; the consensus is that as these CO2
levels increase, so will the earth’s temperature. In general, the models used by the IPCC (2007)
conclude that the climate will become warmer as time advances. However, there is a great
variation as to how precipitation will alter due to the predicted climatic fluctuations. For example,
the Mediterranean may see a 20% decrease in precipitation; whereas there may be precipitation-
increases as great as 20% within the higher latitudes of the globe (Rowell and Jones, 2006; Emori
and Brown, 2005). This predicted decrease for Mediterranean precipitation will have severe
consequences for water resources – a region renowned for having extremely scarce and fragile
water resources. Garcia-Ruiz et al (2011) examine how the water resources in the Mediterranean
might alter with climatic change via the application of multiple simulations.
Fig. 1 – The change in annual precipitation (mm) for the Mediterranean between
1990 – 2002 (Garcia-Ruiz et al, 2011).

From Fig. 1 it can be deduced that the Mediterranean has seen a dramatic decrease in annual
precipitation – particularly in the coastal regions. As stated, these rates of precipitation are
simulated to decrease. The average annual precipitation in Europe varies from 500mm to
3,000mm (European Environmental Agency, 2000); if this were to decrease, groundwater
recharge would be severely affected – which would be detrimental to Mediterranean
groundwater. A simulated scenario by Garcia-Ruiz et al (2011) also found that annual run-off in
Southern Europe could decrease by as much as 50%; with the possibility of Mediterranean water
resources decreasing by 30%. These situations would have a substantial indirect impact on
European groundwater resources. Klove et al (2014) highlights how we’re already dependent on
groundwater resources; and if the annual discharge of European rivers were to decrease, this
would only increase our dependency upon groundwater. Furthermore, with the predicted
increase in human-dependency on groundwater, coupled this with the potential recharge
reduction; European groundwater resources may be detrimentally and irreversibly damaged. This
is echoed by Eckhardt & Ulbrich (2003), who found that summer groundwater recharge could
reduce by 50%, and that reduced streamflow will lead to a net increase of pollutants entering into
the hydrological system.
Recently, hydrologists have begun to develop an understanding of the human interaction with
karst aquifers and their respective water resources. It’s stated by Hartmann (2014), that 25% of
the European population are reliant (whether partially or fully) on water that is derived from
these karst aquifers. Karst landscapes predominantly occur on soluble limestones that contain
massive fracturing - it is extremely effective at transmitting water from the surface to deep
underground cave systems. These sub-surface drainage systems allow for mass volumes of water
to be stored and eventually resurface as a karst spring (Karimi, 2012); which as previously stated,
is a lifeline for a vast quantity of humans. The entire hydrological cycle of karst landscapes is
intimately inter-linked with precipitation, and as one can deduce: a severe reduction in rainfall
would have profound implications for those who are dependent on karst springs as a source of
groundwater.

It is evident that a significant and perpetual change in groundwater levels, as a result of climatic
change, will undoubtedly cause serious repercussions for the agricultural and industrial sectors;
as well as particular ecosystems and natural environments. Potential future climatic changes are
simulated on sophisticated computer models known as General Circulation Models (GCMs). With
these GCMs being used for the last six decades, they are constantly evolving and being enhanced
by climatologists to generate a more-accurate picture of climatic change. Although their
projections are used with some confidence, there are still some recognised errors within them and
the conclusions drawn from GCMs are not necessarily absolute. There is a multitude of varying
GCMs used by differing organisations and research institutes to examine and predict how certain
aspects of the climate might change. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SALT) is GCM
predominantly used by hydrologists in an attempt to understand how the earth’s limited
groundwater will be influenced by future climatic change (Erturk, 2014).
Bloomfield (2006) concluded that groundwater contamination by nitrates is already a serious
issue within the UK; and this is only going to be exacerbated by climatic change. This conclusion is
echoed by Stuart et al (2011), which states that summer precipitation rates in the UK are expected
to decrease by 40% by the year 2080, according to the climate simulations. Groundwater and
society are heavily interlinked; whether it is for industry, agriculture, sanitation or domestic
purposes. Valverde et al (2015) states that by 2070: Portuguese agriculture, primarily due to
climatic change, will demand more water resources than will be physically available. This
conclusion is essentially synonymous for Europe: our future demands for freshwater will far
exceed the supply.
The security of groundwater resources is such a complex and multi-dimensional issue that all of
its aspects could not be contained within this essay. However, this work has attempted to
summarise and present some of the crucial recent studies that have attempted to explore how
groundwater may be influenced by climatic change. It cannot be stressed enough that European
groundwater resources are heading towards breaking point and future climatic change my serve
to intensify and accelerate the decline in this resource. Alternatively, some studies suggest that

forthcoming climatic change may rejuvenate and enhance groundwater resources; although these
are based on unlikely ‘best case scenario’ simulations (Armandine Les Landes et al, 2014).
Whether we as a society want to accept or deny our impact on the climate, it is irrelevant on the
grand scale of ‘things’. The climate is changing, and the security of our groundwater with it.
Furthermore, there is currently a scientific debate as to whether human influence upon the
climate has become so significant, that it warrants for us to be classified as now living in the
Anthropocene (Braje and Erlandson, 2013). It is of the upmost importance that humanity
develops an unyielding effort to ensure the security of this precious resource – regardless of our
political or personal beliefs. If some of the climatic predictions are correct then a bleak future
awaits for our groundwater resources: now is the time to act to ensure these unsettling
predications do not come to fruition.
Word Count: 1,494
References
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