By Professor Paul PS Teng, Dr. Margarita Escaler and Dr. Mely Cabellero-Anthony

1. The Interdependence Between
Urban and Rural Food Security in
Asia
Professor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE
Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU,
Dr. Margarita Escaler
Research Fellow
National Institute of Education,
and
Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony
RSIS, NTU, Singapore

2. • Food security landscape in Asia
• Importance of urban food security
• Multi-dimensional nature of food security
• Urban-rural linkages and interdependence
• Policies & action interventions
• Case study: Singapore
Outline of Presentation

3. Asia: A contrasting scorecard
• 60% of world’s population
• Six of the top ten most populous countries
• Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7”
• 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion
• 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)
• Half of world’s urban population
• More than half of world’s slum population
• Eleven megacities
• Large agricultural exporter and importer
• 60% of world’s under-nourished
Food Security Landscape in Asia

4. Food Balances in Asia
Crop Item
Million MT
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
35
(30)
31
(27)
34
(24)
35
(26)
33
(27)
RICE
(milled)
Global Production 421 434 448 440 452
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
10
(31)
8.5
(29
6.9
(24)
8.6
(28)
8.7
(29)
CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
34
(37)
35
(36)
34
(40)
37
(39)
36
(39)
SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
39
(56)
48
(61)
51
(66)
61
(65)
68
(69)
Source: USDA FAS

5. Asia by 2050
Food Security Landscape in Asia
Urban
2010
Rural
2010
Total
2010
Urban
2050
Rural
2050
Total
2050
ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1
WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3
Three key drivers
• ~20% increase in total population
• ~89% increase in urban population
• 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)
Population

6. Food Demand Changes in Asia
• Reduced per capita consumption of rice
• Increased consumption per capita of wheat and
wheat-based products
• Increased diversity in the food groups consumed
• Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets
• Increased consumption of temperate zone
products
• Rising popularity of convenience food and
beverages
• Westernization of diets
Source: Pingali, FAO 2004

7. • Meat consumption
100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yr
Today, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr)
China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr
• Fish consumption
1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yr
China accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)
• Vegetable consumption
- 1970s – 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 – >100 kg/person/yr
- China: 1970 – 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 270.6 kg/person/yr
Food Demand Changes in Asia (cont’d)

8. At present, 50% of the world’s
population lives in cities – Asia
accounts for half the share
By 2050, 70% will be urban
(mostly in developing
countries) with Asia seeing an
increase of ~1.7 Billion
Shift in the locus of poverty to
cities
Increase in slum dwellers to
828 M in 2010 from 777 M in
2000; Asia accounts for more
than half the world’s total slum
population
Urbanization of Asia
Asian Urbanization 2010 2050
Total Urban Population
(millions)
3,486 6,285
East Asia 785 1,189
West Asia 155 296
Southeast Asia 247 501
South Central Asia 571 1,396
Urbanization (%)
East Asia 50 79
West Asia 67 75
Southeast Asia 42 66
South Central Asia 32 56
ASIA 1,758 3,382
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision

9. Importance of Urban Food Security
“A hungry person with low
blood sugar is a very angry
person – virtually
ungovernable”
Ruth Oniang’o

10. Why is food a security issue?
* Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
Food
Shortages
Food
Contamination
Food Price
Increases
Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Loss of Life
Economic Instability
Political Instability
Conflict
Social Instability
Food
Hoarding
Food
Insecurity*
Globalisation
Conflict
Climate Change

11. Unique features of cities
- Most food is purchased
- Food basket is more varied and more diverse
in origin
- More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets
- Supermarket chains and control
of access
- Availability of more processed foods
- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects
- Poor living conditions for urban poor
- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain

12. II.
Physical Access
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
I. Availability
Primary Production
Crops/Animals
III.
Economic Access
IV.
Utilization
Demand for
Food
Inputs
Labor Land Water
Sunshine
Other Uses
Fish
Distribution
Biofuels
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
Aquaculture
Capture Natural
Ecosystems
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization Etc.
Processing/
Distribution
Losses
Household
Food
Security
Trade
Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security

13. Issues of Concern
Availability Physical
Access
Economic
Access
Utilization
• Fragility of
agro-systems
• Climate change
• Competition for
land
• Changing
demographics
• Waste
• Int’l trade
policies
• Biofuel policies
• Subsidies
• Etc.
• Poor infrastructure
• Conflict
• Market
imperfections
• Waste
• Etc.
• Health and
nutrition
• Fortification
programs
• Education
• Etc.
• Social
programs,
safety nets
• Employment
• Income
• Macroeconomic
policies
• Entrepreneurship
• Etc.

14. Urban-Rural Inter-dependence
URBAN RURAL
- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside
- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture
- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decrease
rural poverty & increase agricultural innovation
- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases
dependence on subsistence production for food security
- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside
- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri-
urban agriculture

15. URBAN RURAL
Threats to Urban Food Security
Natural calamities and pest outbreaks
Macro-economic policy changes
Unseasonal weather patterns
Rising energy prices
Competition from energy sector
Temporary illness/ unemployment
Poverty
Underinvestment in agriculture
Competition for land
Changing demographics
HIV
Climate Change
Fragility of agro-ecosystems
Agricultural policy Changes

16. Food
Production
and consumption
At source
Food
Production
and consumption
Export of
surplus
Role of
public sector
Role of
private sector
URBAN
RURAL
RURAL
URBAN
PERIURBAN
Feeding cities requires rural surplus production
PERIURBAN

17. Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland”
and in the global food supply chain?
• Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds,
fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training;
improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.
• Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve
seed
• Reducing waste
• Changing diets
• Expanding aquaculture
CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an
environmentally sustainable manner

18. Policy & Action Interventions - Examples
Availability
Physical
Access
Economic
Access
Utilization
• Increase
agricultural
productivity
• Reduce waste
• Encourage
sustainable
int’l trade
• Review
agricultural/
biofuel policies
• Improve
transport and
infrastructure
• Link farmers to
markets
• Reduce waste
• Biofortification,
dietary supple-
ments, education
• Improve health
care
• Monitor nutritional
security progress
• Improve infra-
structure/hygiene
• Social
programs,
safety nets
• Increase
entrepreneurial
skills of farmers
• Non-farm
employment
INVESTMENTS

19. FOOD SECURITY
Trade
Social developmentEnvironment
Energy
Agriculture Water Supply
Land use
Economic development
Political stability
Finance
Interconnected Policy Making
Labour & Employment
Health & Nutrition
National security Migration
Education
Public works

20. ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Global Food Supply Chain
Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food
Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --
Distribution
Food Security: geographic connectivity

21. Country Major Ag Commodities Produced World
Ranking
Brunei rice, vegetables, fruits; chickens, water buffalo
Burma rice, pulses, beans, sesame, groundnuts, sugarcane; 2- pigeon pea,
cowpeas; 3-
sesame
Cambodia rice, rubber, corn, vegetables, cashews
Indonesia rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa,
coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs
1- palm oil,
cloves, cinnamon,
coconuts;
2 – rubber,
pepper; 3 – rice,
coffee, cocoa
Laos sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffee
Malaysia rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice, coconuts, timber,
pepper
2 – palm oil;
3 - rubber
Philippines sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassavas,
pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggs
2 – coconuts,
pineapple
Singapore orchids, vegetables; poultry, eggs; fish, ornamental
fish
Thailand rice, cassava (tapioca), rubber, corn, sugarcane,
coconuts, soybeans
1 – rice & shrimp
exporter; 1 –
rubber,
pineapple; 2-
eggs
Vietnam paddy rice, coffee, rubber, cotton, tea, pepper,
soybeans, cashews, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas;
1- cashew
pepper;
2 - coffee; 2 –

22. Why should Singapore be concerned?
• Net food importing country with limited land
resources and largely urban environment
• Imports over 90% of its food
• Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish,
7% leafy vegetables consumed
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Singapore’s food sources

23. Enhancing local food supply resilience
• Increase self production of selected items
• Diversify food sources
• Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart
partnerships
• Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA)
– Agroparks; Aquazones
– Vertical farming
– Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc
• Stockpiles
• Reduce waste
• Etc.
“National Food Security depends on Regional
and Global Food Security”

24. Conclusions
• Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat
of hunger & instability could increase
• Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct
attention
• Food security is multi-dimensional
• There is no quick fix
• More interconnected policy making is critical
• More holistic approach is required
• For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral,
cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban
food security

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