In this webinar, we'll explore product strategy obstacles and present practices to overcome them while driving clarity and alignment across your executive team.
Shaping the Future: Product Strategy in the Age of Uncertainty
1. 1
Shaping the Future: Product
Strategy in the Age of Uncertainty
W/ WILLIAM HAAS EVANS - PRINCIPAL
CONSULTANT
, PRODUCT STRATEGY PRACTICE LEAD,
KUROSHIO CONSULTING
OCTOBER 4, 2022 AT 12:30 PM PDT, 3:30 PM
EDT, 8:30 PM BST
Product Management Today
The Path to Product-Led Growth
Rayvonne Carter
Webinar Coordinator
Product Management Today
2. 2
03
As the leading Customer Success platform provider,
Gainsight empowers hundreds of customer-focused
businesses to deliver outcomes and exceptional
experiences everyday. We (literally) wrote the book on
Customer Success, but we refuse to let it stop there. We
never stop looking for the “next best thing” and work with
industry thought leaders to bring the latest best practices
to our customers and community.
Learn more about Gainsight at Gainsight.com
3. 3
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4. 4
Shaping the Future: Product
Strategy in the Age of Uncertainty
W/ WILLIAM HAAS EVANS - PRINCIPAL
CONSULTANT
, PRODUCT STRATEGY PRACTICE LEAD,
KUROSHIO CONSULTING
Product Management Today
The Path to Product-Led Growth
7. 7
COMMON CHALLENGES
Ø Poor Collaboration / Silos
§ Multiple smaller companies within BU with no overarching identity
§ Constant battles over priorities and resources
§ Focused on own area’s agenda and success
§ Failure to share best practices and knowledge / difficult to get
sufficient information
§ Leadership does not function effectively as a team
§ Serious Trust Gulf between Business and IT
Ø Shifting Priorities
§ Creates a reactive environment
§ Difficult to scale or shift development investment
§ Projects are unplanned with critical priority
§ Easily distracted, scattered, lack of idea filtering
Ø T
echnical Debt
§ Multiple technology platforms / environments not consistent; Very
complex environment to support
§ Not dynamic enough to embrace change
7
8. 8
4 Pillars of a Value-Driven Organization
A VDO Systematically Searches for New Value as the Source of
Growth through Loosely Coupled Value Networks
9. 9
“The Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution,” Harvard Business Review (June 2008)
“Employees at three out of every five
companies rated their organization
weak at execution—that is, when asked
if they agreed with the statement
“Important strategic and operational
decisions are quickly translated into
action,” the majority answered no.”
What is the greatest challenge to strategy execution?
10. 10
How we Connect Strategy to Execution
Ø A Value-Driven Organization (VDO) systematically searches for new value
as the primary source of growth through loosely coupled value networks
Ø A value-driven organization optimizes team structures, funding cycles,
processes, and metrics to drive discovery, traction, and growth across
multiple product adoption curves
Ø In a VDO, how we connect strategy to execution through four pillars:
§ The Product Roadmap (Orient to Value)
§ A Cascade of Requirements (V
ertical/T
emporal Alignment to Strategy)
§ A Cadence of Ceremonies (Horizontal/Lateral Coordination)
§ A System of Metrics (Inspect and Adapt Progress & Performance)
11. 11
“The strategic stimulus to economic
development (growth) is innovation,
defined as the commercial or industrial
application of a new product, process or
method of production, a new market or
source of supply, a new form of
commercial, business or financial
organization.”
— JOSEPH A. SCHUMPETER
15. 15
Dispositioning organizations towards innovation and learning to
drive growth requires designing the right environment for…
§ Joint Activity (Cooperation/Collaboration) which depends on inter-predictability (a foundational
element of trust*) of the team(s). Such inter-predictability is based on common ground – pertinent
knowledge, beliefs, and assumptions that are shared among the involved parties.
§ Requisite Diversity is crucial to variety and variance in our teams. T
o match external variety and
expand adapative and innovative capacity of the organization (that is reach more adjacent possible(s)), team
diversity is key to generating requisite response variety.*
LEADERSHIP CAPABILITIES:
§ Creating the environment and conditions where teams can generate requisite variety while
maintaining coherence is a leadership competency.
§ Creating/Designing the Shared Understanding of the context, purpose, and strategy is table
stakes to build collaboration and cooperation into ethos.
§ IS-OUGHT: We lead — to enable things to be more that way we intend them to be to shift from future
possible to future probable to future preferable.
18. 18
42% of companies
cited “No Market
Need” as their main
reason for failure.
Think about that.
Adapted from Scott Sehlhorst’s Decision Framing
19. 19
06 01
02
03
04
05
Orient to Customer/Business Value
Build Deep Empathy
Map the Customer Experience
Prototype & Experiment
Measure & Improve Capabilities
Adapt & Scale
Disciplined Value Discovery
Six Steps of a Product-Driven Culture
Orient to Value
Design Research
Ethnography
Contextual Inquiry
Customer
Experience
Mapping
Prototype/Experiment
and Execute
Measure &
Improve
Capabilities
Adapt & Scale
20. 20
Product Adoption Curve
MARKET
SHARE
%
Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Early Innovators
50
25
75
100 100
M A R K E T S C U S T O M E R S P R O B L E M S T A R G E T S D E S I G N E X E C U T I O N
P0
First people to adopt a
new technology and
willing to take risks.
Early majority require
that the technology is
usable, reliable, simple.
21. 21
Diffusion Theory (Ideas/Products/Societies)
Everett Rogers (1962)
Synthesized research on adoption of innovation
from several fields: agriculture, anthropology, early
sociology, rural sociology, education, industrial
sociology, medical sociology
He found that for most members of a social
system, the adoption-decision depends heavily on
the adoption-decisions of the other members of
the system (those closest to you).
The more people who adopt an innovation, the
lower the perceived risk. We see this with the
adoption of masks right now.
The S-curve is a measure of the speed of adoption
of an innovation (or idea) across a social group.
22. 22
Diffusion of Innovation
MARKET
SHARE
%
100
50
25
75
100
The most common symbol of
product innovation is the S-curve.
Each curve represents a new
venture, tracing the path from its
start through its growth and
maturation to eventual decline.
Every idea, product, and organization
face this curve. Even this curve, faces
this curve.
While adoption curves are a simple
concept, the ability to create, shape,
accelerate, and dominate an
adoption curve is the holy grail of
product strategy.
Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Early Innovators
24. 24
T
echnological Revolutions Follow the Same Path
MARKET
SHARE
%
Big Bang A
Gestation A
Degree
of
diffusion
of
the
technological
potential
Collapse/Recovery
1. Creative Destruction
2. New Paradigm versus
Old Paradigm
3. Financial Capital Leads
4. Bubble Creation
1. Creative Construction
2. Widespread Application of
New Paradigm
3. Production Capital Leads
INST
ALLA
TION DEPLOYMENT
20-30 YEARS 20-30 YEARS
Big Bang B
Gestation B
1. Irruption
2. Frenzy (Pets.com)
3. Synergy
Inflection
Point
1. Irruption
2. Frenzy (Pets.com)
4. Maturity & Decline
25. 25
The Innovation S-Curve
MATURE
TIME
You arrive and enter a
steady state, but then
value begins to diminish
You need a new
dream and reinvention
to thrive in the future
DECLINE
DEAD
OPPORTUNITY
GROWTH 3G LTE
PORTFOLIO
STRATEGY
INNOVATION
Once an innovation reaches
maturity, the business enters a
steady state where it can exploit
its position to maximize profit.
Equilibrium may feel like a relief,
but that’s where stagnation sets
in.
To avoid decline, or even death, a
new S-curve ventures must be
launched.
3G
4G
“Plan for the future because that’s where you are going to spend the rest of your life.” – Mark Twain
26. 26
§ What do consumers need?
§ What drives better customer
experiences?
§ What are the functional, emotional,
and social jobs-to-be-done?
§ What problems must be solved?
§ What capabilities are technically and
organizationally feasible?
§ Do we build or partner to deliver
those capabilities?
§ How do we close the performance
gap in those strategic capabilities?
§ What interventions drive better
business outcomes?
§ What business models will support
delivery of this solution to market?
§ How price sensitive is the market to
this offering?
We ask these questions to drive innovations in
technology, consumer experience, and business model….
HIGH
VELOCITY,
FAST
CYCLES
RAPID
EXPERIMENTATION
SLOW
VELOCITY,
LONG
CYCLES
TIGHTLY
COUPLE
SYSTEMS
RESILIENCE
QUALITY
INNOVATION
FLOW
AGILE TEAMS
Agility means focusing on how we remove impediments,
run experiments, and continuous learning towards value
delivery to customers, stakeholders, and employees.
Value-Driven Innovation Starts with the
Consumer…
27. 27
Outcome Hypothesis Syntax
§ We believe that doing/building: [ ACTION / EXPERIMENT]
§ In order to solve [ THE PROBLEM ]
§ For [ THESE PEOPLE/THIS PROCESS ]
§ We will achieve [ THIS MEASURABLE OUTCOME ] by [ TIMEFRAME ]
§ When it fails, we will [WHAT IS THE NEXT PROBLEM/EXPERIMENT]
§ If it succeeds, we will [PLAN FOR SCALING]
28. 28
“Themes are a promise to solve problems, not build features.”
Quarter 1
(Theme Name)
Quarter 2
(Theme Name)
Quarter 3
(Theme Name)
Quarter 4
(Theme Name)
Q1 Q2
Jobs to be done
Jobs to be done
Jobs to be done
Jobs to be done
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
1 2 3
Identify / clarify JTBD Draft Epic Brief Prioritize and Score
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
4
EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC EPIC
Draft Roadmap tied to Themes (Aligned to Strategic OKRs)
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC
EPIC EPIC
EPIC EPIC
EPIC EPIC
Building the Product Roadmap
Take an iterative approach to building a Product Roadmap based on Uncertainty and Risk
P R O D U C T ( E P I C ) R O A D M A P 1 2 - 1 8 M O N T H S H O R I Z O N 2
EPIC
29. 29
A CASCADE OF REQUIREMENTS
4 Pillars of a Value-Driven Organization
30. 30
Strategic Planning T
actical Product Planning
THEME INITIATIVE EPIC FEATURE STORY
~3-6 QUARTERS
BIG STRATEGIC THEME
~1-3 MONTHS
STRATEGIC THEME
BROKEN DOWN INTO
MULTIPLE INTIATIVES
TAKING 1-3 MONTHS TO
REALIZE
~1-3 SPRINTS
AN INTIATIVE IS
BROKEN DOWN INTO
DISCREATE EPICS
WITH DEFINED
OUTCOMES TAKING
1-3 SPRINTS TO
COMPLETE
~1-3 WEEKS
~1-3 DAYS
32. 32
CASCADE REQUIREMENTS THROUGH VALUE NETWORKS
EPIC EPIC EPIC
FEATURE FEATURE FEATURE
PRODUCT ROADMAP
FEATURE RELEASE PLAN
USER STORY
USER STORY
USER STORY
SPRINT BACKLOG
PRODUCT
STRATEGY
PORTFOLIO
PRODUCT
DELIVERY
ARCHITECT
DESIGN
PRODUCT ENGINEERS
INITIATIVE
BRIEF
AOP
THEME
Inspired by Scott Sehlhorst’s Requirements Cascade
33. 33
Product Discovery and Requirements
§ Building the Right Thing
1) It has to be valuable or there’s no benefit to
the business and we shouldn’t do it.
2) It has to also be desirable to the customer or
we will not have a business.
3) It has to be feasible for our organization to
execute or we will not succeed.
§ Where we answer these
questions:
1) Epics – Why? Why is this problem valuable?
2) Features – What will we build? Is it feasible?
3) User Stories – Goal? How is this desirable by
the customer/user?
33
BUSINESS
VALUABLE
TECHNOLOGY
FEASIBILITY
CUSTOMER
DESIRABILITY
E
P
I
C
F
E
A
T
U
R
E
D
E
L
I
V
E
R
Y
Problem Statement (JTBD)
Succes Criteria
Outcome Hypothesis
Effort (Duration)
Risks (Dependencies)
Description
Acceptance Criteria
Solution Hypothesis
Effort (Duration)
Supporting Artifacts
Acceptance Criteria
Effort (Points)
Supporting Artifacts
Description
Inspired by Scott Sehlhorst’s Requirements Cascade
34. 34
FEATURE
EPIC
INITIATIVE
STRATEGY
VISION
Which moves us towards realizing our…vision
Which creates business value aligned to our…
Enabling us to exploit an opportunity
defined in the…
We are building this
DECADE
3-5 YEARS
6-18 MONTHS
1-3 MONTHS
1-3 WEEKS
WHY?
WHY?
WHY?
WHY?
WHY?
Which solves a valuable problem
defined in our…
What are
you doing?
STRATEGIC
COHERENCE
35. 35
A SYSTEM OF METRICS
4 Pillars of a Value-Driven Organization
37. 37
What Y
ou Measure Depends on Where Y
ou Are…
Optimize for Validated Learning, then Optimize for Traction by reducing frictions, then Optimize for Margin Growth.
Focus: Validated Learning
Experiments: Pivots
Metrics: Qualitative
Focus: Growth
Experiments: Optimization
Metrics: Quantitative
38. 38
Types of Metrics
Qualitative
Warm and Fuzzy.
Quantitative
Cold and Hard.
Unstructured, anecdotal,
revealing, hard to aggregate,
richer insight
Numbers and stats; hard facts
for validation, less insight, more
verifiable
Discover Qualitatively. Prove Quantitatively.
39. 39
Types of Metrics
Lagging
Start here.
Leading
Try to get here.
Historical metric that shows you
how you’re doing: reports the
news.
Metrics today that hint/forecast
a metric tomorrow: makes the
news.
Shift from what happened, to influencing what should happen.
40. 40
Types of Metrics
Correlated Causal
Two variables that move in
similar ways over time, perhaps
because they are linked to
something else.
An independent factor that
directly impacts a dependent
factor.
41. 41
Understanding Causality is a Superpower:
it lets you Shape the Future.
Correlated Causal
Understanding
CORRELATION lets you predict
the future.
Understanding
CAUSALITY let’s you shape and
change the future.
“I will have 420 engaged users and 75
paying customers next month.”
“If I can make more first-time visitors
stay engaged for 17 minutes, will
increase sales in 90 days.”
Find ‘Notional’
Correlation
Formulated
Testable Hypothesis
Test
Causality
Optimize the
Causal Factor
42. 42
Example System of Metrics
Strategic
Intent
3 OKRs
Customer
Value Propositions
3 OKRS
Lagging Indicator
Economic Profit
(NOP – CoC)
% Market Share
Δ Gross Revenue
Lagging Indicators
Δ CLV / CAC / CSR / NPS
Epic Lead time
Epic Completion Ratio
Leading Indicators
Ready Backlog
Epic Throughput / OpEx
Cycle Time (C/T)
Product North Star
Product KPIs
Capability Performance
Feature Throughput
Lagging Indicator
Product North Star Metric
AOV / CHURN
Leading Indicator
Feature Ready Backlog
Feature Throughput
Lagging Indicator
Value Demand/Failure Demand Ratio
Leading Indicator
Velocity Variance
Release Burndown
Escaped Defects
Operational / Sprint KPIs
Release KPIs
Example Metrics
Value Stream
OKRs
Portfolio Teams
Product Teams
Delivery Teams
43. 43
A CADENCE OF CEREMONIES
4 Pillars of a Value-Driven Organization
44. 44
Evolution through raising standards and
solving next class of problems to drive
continuous improvement.
YOU
ARE
HERE
ORIGINAL
STANDARD
Raise the
standard
IDENTIFY
NEXT
GAP
TIME
CREATE
NEXT TARGET
FUTURE
VISION
PREVENT
BACKSLIDING
Macro View: How Do We Vision Future State?
NEXT
STABLE
STATE
45. 45
TARGET
CONDITION
BARRIER
CONSTRAINT
IMPEDIMENT
remove
overcome
eliminate
You are here We will get
you here.
CURRENT
CONDITION
At each stage, we
identify the next class
of problems to solve.
Micro View: How Do We Improve @ Scale?
CURRENT
CONDITION
GAP
Zooming In
What we need to do next to get to target
condition is leverage Lean Thinking
Continuous Improvement: Plan-Do-Study-
Act to remove waste and increase capacity
of system to innovate.
P
D
S
A
46. 46
Execution, Delivery, Monitoring
Report progress towards objectives, measurable
outcomes via EAP System and Monthly
ProdOps Review faciliated by PMO
§ Product Canvas
§ Customer Personas
§ Customer Journey Map
§ Initiative Brief
Continuous
Portfolio
Investment
Planning
Circle
1. Regular Backlog Replenishment & Refinement :
Prioritize backlog of “next up / below the line” projects, review
current project budget commitments aligned to investment themes.
Establish OKRs, KPIs, and CPIs for new Intiaitive aligned to
strategic themes.
2. Monthly Portfolio Investment Planning:
Check for readiness and approve funding for a given
initiative / roadmap with defined value measures; align
markets, product, and engineering to outcomes, forecast
demand and value realization.
3. Quarterly Portfolio Review: Review value delivered
and realized across portfolio, budget status, and demand
for prioritized “next up” projects
Project/Initiative Demand Intake (Continuous)
● Business Case One-Pager (Product Canvas / Intiative Brief)
● Defined Benefit (ROI/IRR) of Investment
● Cost/Benefit Detailed with Forecasted Value, Urgency, Risk,
and Effort
Product Investment Approval
Required for specific Capital Investment
Thresholds; Properly allocate CapEx/OpEx Mix
4. Annual Planning (July - August)
§ Retrospectives
§ Revisit and Update OKRs
§ Deploy Strategy
§ Investment Demand Intake
§ Initial Above and Below the Line
Define Initiative/Project Value / Success Criteria / Outcome / Budget:
D E M A N D I N T A K E
A N D
P O R T F O L I O
P R I O R I T I Z A T I O N
47. 47
Cadence of Ceremonies
D E M A N D I N T A K E
A N D
P O R T F O L I O
P R I O R I T I Z A T I O N
B E N E F I T
( V A L U E )
R E A L I Z A T I O N
P R O G R E S S
R E V I E W
P O R T F O L I O
O P S R E V I E W
(Quarterly)
Develop a shared understanding of priorities,
tradeoffs, options for Epic Intake, solution
approach, and Release Targeting Timeframe
(Monthly)
”Walk the Portfolio Kanban” to
understand the progress of Epics and
Features against product roadmap
(Monthly)
Review performance data and
analysis, improve assumptions,
modify/update Epics and roadmap
(Quarterly)
Review how the delivery system is
working and plan improvements
P R O D U C T
P L A N N I N G
P R O D U C T
B A C K L O G
R E F I N E M E N T A N D
P R O G R E S S I O N D E M O ,
E V A L U A T I V E
R E E S E A R C H ,
U A T
M E T R I C S A N D
R E T R O S P E C T I V E S
(Bi-Weekly)
”Walk the Kanban” to understand the
progress of Features, dependencies and risks
(Weekly)
Review features ready to move to Kanban
to ensure policies are met
(Bi-Monthly)
Completed work is demod to
stakeholders and sponsors, verified and
validated with actual users or customers.
(Bi-Monthly)
Review how the delivery system is working and
plan improvements
PORTFOLIO
TEAM
PRODUCT
TEAM
48. 48
5 Principles of Innovation-Driven Product Growth
1) Innovation starts when people convert problems (limitations) into value
hypotheses
2) Passion for the problem (not the solution) is the Fuel, shared understanding
(Common Ground) in the Launch Pad, the Roadmap is your guidance/navigation
system
3) Innovation requires the right environment and measurement systems with the
right enabling constraints
4) Cross-function Collaboration increases horizon and opportunity landscape
scanning, insight synthesis, knowledge exchange, and response diversity
5) The right Enabling Constraints accelerates innovation; the wrong governing
constraints suffocates it
6) Establishing the four pillars is a leadership capability.
49. 49
Value-Driven Companies that effectively shape the future and
release trapped value have six characteristics:
Product/Market Centric
Knowing how to be and how to stay relevant to customers
by sensing and addressing their changing jobs-to-be-done /
needs (e.g., affordability, social connection, experience, quality)
and creating products which change behavior leading to new
outcomes.
1
2 Agile Leadership
Creating new, modern forms of workforces (T-shaped, cross-
functional, cell-based flexible teams with rolling backlogs and
quick release cycles) required to find or create competitive
advantage in existing or new markets.
3
Technology & Data Powered
Mastering leading-edge technologies and data science
combined with qualitative research to enable business
innovation, smart automation, and continuous discovery of
insights to reduce uncertainty and place better bets.
Asset (Capability) Smart
Optimizing enterprise capability positions to enable a faster
shift to new business models, by making bold and strategic
bets to exploit emergent opportunities across shifting markets
leveraging micro-services architecture to enable speed to
market.
4
5
Exploit Network Economics
Harnessing the power of a carefully managed ecosystem of
partners to bring the best innovations and capabilities to
customers.
6
Hyper Lean
Adopting principles of Lean and DevOps to optimize
systems thinking for throughput, feedback loops, intelligent
automation, and just-in-time, supply chains and underlying
processes aligned to value streams
50. 50
“Individuals and teams closest to the
problems, armed with unprecedented levels
of insights from across the network, offer
the best ability to decide and act decisively.”
— GEN. STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL
THANKS
52. 52
Principal Consultant, Product
Strategy Practice Lead, Kuroshio
Consulting
William Haas
Evans
/in/semanticwill/
/in/rayvonnecarter/
Q&A
Rayvonne Carter
Webinar Coordinator
Product Management Update
productmanagement
today.com
semanticfoundry.com
53. 53
Conceptual Architecture: Strategy to Execution
HYPOTHESES
STORIES
MARKET RESEARCH MARKET / OPPORTUNITIES / TRENDS / DEMOGRAPHICS
ETHOGRAPHY / CONTEXTUAL INQUIRY
JTBD
M A R K E T S C U S T O M E R S P R O B L E M S T A R G E T S D E S I G N E X E C U T I O N
STORY
ACCEPTANCE
DELIVERED
FEATURE
PRIORITZED CUSTOMER NEEDS
RELEASED
CAPABILITY
WORKING
PRODUCT
PRODUCT VISION
STORY
ACCEPTANCE
CRITERIA
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE MAP
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE JOURNEY
Customer-Centric
Known-Unknowns
PDO FLOW OF VALUE FROM IDEAS TO PRODUCT
OPPORTUNITIES
INVESTMENT TEAM PORTFOLIO TEAM(S) PRODUCT TEAMS DELIVERY TEAMS
THINK
MAKE
CHECK
INNOVATION
TEAM
R&D / Emergent Innovation
FEEDBACK
FEEDBACK
FEATURES
RELEASE PLAN
PRODUCT ROADMAP
IMPACT
MAPPING
MAKE
CHECK
THINK
FEATURE
ACCEPTANCE
CRITERIA
NFR
VISUAL
INSPECTION
Unknown-Unknowns
CI/CD PIPELINE
61. 61
SYSTEMS THINKING
CROSS-DISCIPLINARY COLLABORATION
MAPPING AND VISIONING
RESEARCH / ETHNOGRAPHY
ACTIVE SEEING / ACTIVE LISTENING
INTEGRATION / SYNTHESIS
PROTOTYPING/EXPERIMENTING
STORYTELLING
THE BEHAVIORS WHICH REINFORNCE A VALUE ORIENT
A
TION