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Global Strategy


Equity Research                Asia                                                                                                  Sector Strategy

        11,
January 11, 2012
                               China Oil & Gas: Gas Reform Trials
S&P 2012 GDP ESTIMATES:
China: 7.7%-8.2%                        Gas pricing trials in Guangxi and Guangdong Amid the positive news of
                                                                             Guangdong.
                                        an increase in the windfall tax threshold last week, a smaller, yet potentially
Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0%
                                        as significant, announcement was also made on the imposition of a new gas
India: 6.8%-7.3%
                                        pricing mechanism on a trial basis in Guangdong province and the Guangxi
Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5%
                                        autonomous region (referred to herein as the “two provinces”).
Korea: 2.8%-3.3%
Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9%                     Shifting to a netback formula (from cost - plus) Effective Dec. 26, 2011,
                                                                                  cost-plus).
Singapore: 2.0%-2.5%                    benchmark gate gas prices were set at CNY2.74/m3 and CNY2.57/m3 in
Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8%                       Guangdong and Guangxi, respectively. City gas gate prices in the two
Thailand: 3.5%-4.0%                     provinces will be based on the benchmark plus respective logistics costs.
U.S.: 1.8%                              This replaces the previous mechanism from a cost-plus basis (wellhead +
Eurozone: 0.4%                          logistics) to a netback formula with reference to a basket of alternative fuels
                                        (60% imported fuel oil + 40% imported LPG). The benchmark gate prices are
2012 INDEX TARGETS:                     to be adjusted initially on an annual basis; if successful the mechanism may
S&P 500: 1,400                          be rolled out nationwide at a later date.
S&P Euro 350: 1,050
S&P Asia 50: 3,500                      Partially removes a key stumbling block . As noted in our December 2011
                                                                               block.
                                        piece, China O&G: Cloudy 2012, a key impediment to gas price reform is the
                                        multitude of gas sources with substantially different cost structures
                                        (domestic conventional, domestic unconventional, pipeline import or LNG),
                                        and hence the lack of a proper pricing benchmark. Switching to a netback
                                        formula allows the NDRC to set key benchmarks on a provincial basis,
                                        regardless of gas source. This still leaves the NDRC the headache of setting
                                        provincial benchmark prices, but the addition of a pricing basket automates
                                        (theoretically) much of this process.
Energy
Energy                                  Netback results = still loss - making (albeit lower) for CNPC ’s WEP2 . In our
                                                                loss-                            CNPC’s
Overweight                              December 2010 sector note, Reform on the Mind , we calculated CNPC’s
                                        (PetroChina’s parent) average imported gas cost for the second West-East
Oil & Gas                               Pipeline (WEP2) to be about CNY2.02/m3. Hence, netting back from the two
                                        provinces’ city gas gate prices (assuming a CNY1/m3 pipeline cost), CNPC
Overweight                              would still be losing money from its Turkmenistan gas imports, albeit at a
                                        lower level, given previous average city gas gate price of CNY2.27/m3. This is
                                        also lower than CNOOC’s (parent of CNOOC Ltd) Fujian terminal import costs
                                        from Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG, but reports from Beijing-based industry
                                        consultants 3E Ltd indicate the new benchmark prices are still substantially
        Halim,
Ahmad Halim, CFA                        lower than CNOOC gas imports from Qatar. Pertamina is also reportedly
Equity Analyst                          seeking to hike its LNG sales price to CNOOC by up to 109% to USD7/mBtu.

                                        Stock Recommendations While the changes should benefit PetroChina,
                                                Recommendations.
                                        given its dominance in the natural gas distribution business, we believe
                                        much of this is in the long term, as wholesale gas pricing reform (although
                                        required to secure China’s energy needs in future) will take some time to
                                        play out. For now, our preference lies with Sinopec Corp (00386, HKD9.02)
                                        and CNOOC Ltd (00883, HKD15.18), both at 4-STARS (Buy). Valuations for
                                        both are attractive, while Sinopec also offers reform leverage and significant
                                        injection opportunities (e.g. Addax, Daylight). PetroChina
                                                                                                PetroChina’s (00857,
                                        HKD10.74) unexciting valuations lead us to a 3-STARS (Hold) call.


                               This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Standard & Poor’s              Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results
Equity Research Services       from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required
17th Floor, Prudential Tower   d i s c l o s ur e s a nd an a l y st c er t if i c a t io n ap p e ar s o n t he la s t 3 p a g e s of t h i s r epo r t . A dd i t io n a l i nf or m a t io n i s
30 Cecil Street, Singapore     a v a i l a b le on r eq u e st .
January 11, 2012                                       Global Strat egy




 Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at January 10, 2012
                                                                                                       2012                                                        2

                                                                                                     Price Performance           PER (x)           PAT Growth
                                                                                          Market
                                                               Trading                  Cap (USD
 Company Name                                     CIQ Ticker   Ccy          Share Price      mln)   1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012
 Integrated O&G
 Exxon Mobil Corporation                          NYSE:XOM     USD               85.72   410,874     5.4% 12.4%       4.7%      10.0x      10.2x   36.5%   -5.4%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                              SEHK:857     HKD               10.80   288,587    14.0% 19.7%      -6.9%      11.2x       9.9x    5.6%   13.8%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                            LSE:RDSA     GBP               24.02   236,283     4.7% 13.3%       7.0%       8.0x       7.8x   32.8%    5.2%
 Chevron Corporation                              NYSE:CVX     USD              109.06   217,191     4.6% 11.7%       4.5%       7.9x       8.3x   43.9%   -5.8%
 BP plc                                           LSE:BP.      GBP                4.80   140,867     6.1% 18.2%       4.5%       6.5x       6.4x      NM    1.9%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.                 SEHK:386     HKD                8.96   105,718    12.1% 26.4%     14.7%        8.3x       7.7x   11.2%    8.2%
 ConocoPhillips                                   NYSE:COP     USD               73.28    97,297     1.8%   9.3%     -1.9%       8.5x       8.6x    6.3%   -7.7%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                              SET:PTT      THB              324.00    29,254     1.3% 11.0%      -2.1%       9.2x       8.3x   22.3%    9.8%
 Average                                                                                            6.26% 15.25%    3.05%        8.7x       8.4x   22.6%    2.5%

 Exploration & Production (E&P)
 CNOOC Ltd.                                       SEHK:883     HKD               15.30    87,271     3.5% 11.5%      -16.0%     7.9x        8.1x 33.2%     -2.3%
 Statoil ASA                                      OB:STL       NOK              155.00    82,413     1.0% 16.9%       15.1%     9.7x        8.7x 36.8%      8.1%
 Suncor Energy Inc.                               TSX:SU       CAD               32.82    50,785     9.9% 13.8%      -14.3%     9.6x        9.8x 50.7%      2.1%
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation                   NYSE:APC     USD               80.88    40,276     0.8% 21.5%        5.2%    26.1x       23.9x 104.8%     4.3%
 Apache Corp.                                     NYSE:APA     USD               98.09    37,672     0.6% 12.8%      -19.1%     8.4x        7.9x 52.5%      6.4%
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.                          ASX:WPL      AUD               32.18    26,142     0.9% -9.6%      -19.8%    14.9x       13.7x   9.1%    12.5%
 Hess Corporation                                 NYSE:HES     USD               58.56    19,608     0.2%   5.3%     -18.7%     9.4x        8.4x -0.1%     10.6%
 PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd.   SET:PTTEP    THB              181.00    18,995     8.4% 22.3%        2.0%    13.6x       11.1x   5.4%    22.8%
 Average                                                                                            3.17% 11.80%    -8.22%     12.5x       11.5x 36.6%      8.1%

                                                                    EV/EBITDA                 PBV           ROE        Gross Margin   Div Yield
 Company
 Company Name                                                   FY2011      FY2012        FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012
 Integrated O&G
 Exxon Mobil Corporation                          NYSE:XOM           4.7x         4.8x      2.5x     2.3x   25.5%   22.0%     46.40%    47.50%     2.16%   2.27%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                              SEHK:857           6.3x         5.6x      1.6x     1.4x   14.2%   14.9%     36.42%    36.70%     3.90%   4.39%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                            LSE:RDSA           4.1x         4.0x      1.4x     1.2x   17.6%   16.0%     22.20%    21.90%     4.59%   4.85%
 Chevron Corporation                              NYSE:CVX           3.3x         3.5x      1.8x     1.6x   23.8%   19.5%     45.20%    46.00%     2.82%   3.02%
 BP plc                                           LSE:BP.            3.7x         3.7x      1.3x     1.1x   20.5%   18.2%     18.90%    19.80%     3.75%   4.13%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.                 SEHK:386           5.2x         4.7x      1.3x     1.2x   16.8%   16.0%     16.75%    17.14%     3.19%   3.50%
 ConocoPhillips                                   NYSE:COP           3.8x         3.9x      1.5x     1.4x   17.6%   16.0%     28.30%    29.40%     3.55%   3.82%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                              SET:PTT            6.7x         5.9x      1.6x     1.4x   19.4%   18.6%      9.06%     9.59%     3.85%   4.12%
 Average                                                             4.7x         4.5x      1.6x     1.5x   19.4%   17.6%     27.90%    28.50%     3.48%   3.76%

 Exploration & Production (E&P)
 CNOOC Ltd.                                       SEHK:883           4.2x         4.2x      2.1x     1.8x   28.8%   23.2%     59.33%    53.10%     4.27%   4.12%
 Statoil ASA                                      OB:STL             2.2x         2.1x      1.9x     1.6x   24.6%   20.0%     47.05%    48.85%     4.20%   4.46%
 Suncor Energy Inc.                               TSX:SU             5.2x         5.2x      1.3x     1.2x   14.6%   12.7%     60.80%    62.40%     1.33%   1.41%
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation                   NYSE:APC           6.9x         5.8x      2.1x     1.9x    5.3%    8.2%     70.70%    71.30%     0.45%   0.45%
 Apache Corp.                                     NYSE:APA           3.7x         3.4x      1.3x     1.2x   16.9%   15.7%     78.10%    79.30%     0.65%   0.64%
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.                          ASX:WPL            9.7x         7.5x      2.0x     1.8x   13.9%   13.6%     69.90%    68.60%     3.51%   3.67%
 Hess Corporation                                 NYSE:HES           3.5x         3.2x      1.0x     0.9x   12.4%   11.5%     25.10%    25.30%     0.72%   0.71%
 PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd.   SET:PTTEP          5.9x         4.9x      3.0x     2.5x   23.3%   24.3%     52.74%    50.76%     2.86%   3.51%
 Average                                                             5.1x         4.5x      1.8x     1.6x   17.5%   16.1%     57.97%    57.45%     2.25%   2.37%
 Source: S&P Capital IQ




                                                       Standard & Poor’s                                                                Equity Re search
January 11, 2012                                                  Global Strat egy




                                                                                            S&P Capital IQ Research S&P Capital IQ U.S. includes Standard & Poor’s
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                                                                                            Europe includes Standard & Poor’s LLC- London; Standard & Poor’s Equity
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                                                                                            Research Services Asia includes Standard & Poor’s LLC’s offices in Singapore,

S&P STARS     -   Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a        Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong,

universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs               Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services

(American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future                 (Australia) Pty Ltd.

performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS®
                                                                                            Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports
methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under
                                                                                            CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate
proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank
                                                                                            CAPEX- Capital Expenditures
equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return
                                                                                            CY- Calendar Year
potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional
                                                                                            DCF- Discounted Cash Flow
index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a
                                                                                            EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking
                                                                                            EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining
                                                                                            EPS- Earnings Per Share
the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal
                                                                                            EV- Enterprise Value
proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs.
                                                                                            FCF- Free Cash Flow

S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings
                                                            Rankings)-                      FFO- Funds From Operations

Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in                   FY- Fiscal Year

establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are              P/E- Price/Earnings

designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted,     PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio

however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and             PV- Present Value

modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for           R&D- Research & Development

each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores        ROE- Return on Equity

of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of         ROI- Return on Investment

this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings:                         ROIC- Return on Invested Capital
                                                                                            ROA- Return on Assets
A+ Highest                  B+ Average                 C Lowest                             SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
A High                      B Below Average            D In Reorganization                  WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital
A- Above Average            B- Lower                   NR Not Ranked
                                                                                            Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
S&P Issuer Credit Rating      -   A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current
                                                                                            Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
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legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account
the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit
enhancement on the obligation.
                                                                                            Required Disclosures
                                                                                            In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which
S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates        –   S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates   are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative
reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally         evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In
exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary.          particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology,
Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity        whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the
analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently                 STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods,
compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among            quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment,           analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on
restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process        history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity
research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt;           as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations.
the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that
have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items,
such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and
                                                                                            S&P Global STARS Distribution
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to            In North America
which some types of data is disclosed by companies.                                         As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research
                                                                                            North America recommended 39.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.4%
         Earnings
S&P Core Earnings      -   S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for
                                                                                            with hold recommendations and 3.5% with sell recommendations.
adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings
generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are
                                                                                            In Europe
employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from
                                                                                            As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research
ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets,
                                                                                            Europe recommended 31.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 50.6% with
purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized
                                                                                            hold recommendations and 17.9% with sell recommendations.
gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains,
impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-
                                                                                            In Asia
year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.
                                                                                            As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia
S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the           recommended 43.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 51.0% with hold
market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a                      recommendations and 5.2% with sell recommendations.
combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P
Fair Value.


                                                                  Standard & Poor’s                                                                     Equity Research
January 11, 2012                                            Global Strat egy




Globally                                                                                S&P Capital IQ or an affiliate may license certain intellectual property or provide
As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research            pricing or other services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain issuers     4
globally recommended 38.3% of issuers with buy recommendations, 55.7% with hold         of securities, including exchange-traded investments whose investment objective is
recommendations and 6.0% with sell recommendations.                                     to substantially replicate the returns of a proprietary Standard & Poor's index, such
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5-STARS (Strong Buy) Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
                Buy):
                                                                                        tied to the amount of assets that are invested in the fund or the volume of trading
relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising
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in price on an absolute basis.
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basis.
                                                                                        recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, nor is it
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                                                                                        considered to be investment advice.
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price
on an absolute basis.
                                                                                        Indexes are unmanaged, statistical composites and their returns do not include
2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
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relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not
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anticipated to show a gain.
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1-STARS (Strong Sell Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
                Sell):
relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling
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Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are generally the S&P Europe
                                                                                        organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may
350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index.
                                                                                        recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address.

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In Europe
                                                                                        With respect to reports issued to clients in Japan and in the case of inconsistencies
As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Europe
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recommendations and 30.8% with sell recommendations.
                                                                                        inconsistencies between the English and German version of a report, the English
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In Asia
                                                                                        the translation. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of
As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Asia
                                                                                        the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance
recommended 47.6% of issuers with buy recommendations, 21.9% with hold
                                                                                        is not necessarily indicative of future results.
recommendations and 30.5% with sell recommendations.

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Globally
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As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services globally
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                                                            Standard & Poor’s                                                                         Equity Research
January 11, 2012                                                   Global Strat egy




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Ching Wah Tam and Ahmad Halim.


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that any such securities will only be offered or sold through a financial institution.




                                                                   Standard & Poor’s                                                                        Equity Research
January 11, 2012   Global Strat egy




                   This page intentionally left blank            6




                   Standard & Poor’s           Equity Research

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Energy 120111

  • 1. Global Strategy Equity Research Asia Sector Strategy 11, January 11, 2012 China Oil & Gas: Gas Reform Trials S&P 2012 GDP ESTIMATES: China: 7.7%-8.2% Gas pricing trials in Guangxi and Guangdong Amid the positive news of Guangdong. an increase in the windfall tax threshold last week, a smaller, yet potentially Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0% as significant, announcement was also made on the imposition of a new gas India: 6.8%-7.3% pricing mechanism on a trial basis in Guangdong province and the Guangxi Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5% autonomous region (referred to herein as the “two provinces”). Korea: 2.8%-3.3% Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9% Shifting to a netback formula (from cost - plus) Effective Dec. 26, 2011, cost-plus). Singapore: 2.0%-2.5% benchmark gate gas prices were set at CNY2.74/m3 and CNY2.57/m3 in Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8% Guangdong and Guangxi, respectively. City gas gate prices in the two Thailand: 3.5%-4.0% provinces will be based on the benchmark plus respective logistics costs. U.S.: 1.8% This replaces the previous mechanism from a cost-plus basis (wellhead + Eurozone: 0.4% logistics) to a netback formula with reference to a basket of alternative fuels (60% imported fuel oil + 40% imported LPG). The benchmark gate prices are 2012 INDEX TARGETS: to be adjusted initially on an annual basis; if successful the mechanism may S&P 500: 1,400 be rolled out nationwide at a later date. S&P Euro 350: 1,050 S&P Asia 50: 3,500 Partially removes a key stumbling block . As noted in our December 2011 block. piece, China O&G: Cloudy 2012, a key impediment to gas price reform is the multitude of gas sources with substantially different cost structures (domestic conventional, domestic unconventional, pipeline import or LNG), and hence the lack of a proper pricing benchmark. Switching to a netback formula allows the NDRC to set key benchmarks on a provincial basis, regardless of gas source. This still leaves the NDRC the headache of setting provincial benchmark prices, but the addition of a pricing basket automates (theoretically) much of this process. Energy Energy Netback results = still loss - making (albeit lower) for CNPC ’s WEP2 . In our loss- CNPC’s Overweight December 2010 sector note, Reform on the Mind , we calculated CNPC’s (PetroChina’s parent) average imported gas cost for the second West-East Oil & Gas Pipeline (WEP2) to be about CNY2.02/m3. Hence, netting back from the two provinces’ city gas gate prices (assuming a CNY1/m3 pipeline cost), CNPC Overweight would still be losing money from its Turkmenistan gas imports, albeit at a lower level, given previous average city gas gate price of CNY2.27/m3. This is also lower than CNOOC’s (parent of CNOOC Ltd) Fujian terminal import costs from Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG, but reports from Beijing-based industry consultants 3E Ltd indicate the new benchmark prices are still substantially Halim, Ahmad Halim, CFA lower than CNOOC gas imports from Qatar. Pertamina is also reportedly Equity Analyst seeking to hike its LNG sales price to CNOOC by up to 109% to USD7/mBtu. Stock Recommendations While the changes should benefit PetroChina, Recommendations. given its dominance in the natural gas distribution business, we believe much of this is in the long term, as wholesale gas pricing reform (although required to secure China’s energy needs in future) will take some time to play out. For now, our preference lies with Sinopec Corp (00386, HKD9.02) and CNOOC Ltd (00883, HKD15.18), both at 4-STARS (Buy). Valuations for both are attractive, while Sinopec also offers reform leverage and significant injection opportunities (e.g. Addax, Daylight). PetroChina PetroChina’s (00857, HKD10.74) unexciting valuations lead us to a 3-STARS (Hold) call. This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Standard & Poor’s Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results Equity Research Services from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required 17th Floor, Prudential Tower d i s c l o s ur e s a nd an a l y st c er t if i c a t io n ap p e ar s o n t he la s t 3 p a g e s of t h i s r epo r t . A dd i t io n a l i nf or m a t io n i s 30 Cecil Street, Singapore a v a i l a b le on r eq u e st .
  • 2. January 11, 2012 Global Strat egy Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at January 10, 2012 2012 2 Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth Market Trading Cap (USD Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share Price mln) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 Integrated O&G Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 85.72 410,874 5.4% 12.4% 4.7% 10.0x 10.2x 36.5% -5.4% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 10.80 288,587 14.0% 19.7% -6.9% 11.2x 9.9x 5.6% 13.8% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 24.02 236,283 4.7% 13.3% 7.0% 8.0x 7.8x 32.8% 5.2% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 109.06 217,191 4.6% 11.7% 4.5% 7.9x 8.3x 43.9% -5.8% BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 4.80 140,867 6.1% 18.2% 4.5% 6.5x 6.4x NM 1.9% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 HKD 8.96 105,718 12.1% 26.4% 14.7% 8.3x 7.7x 11.2% 8.2% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 73.28 97,297 1.8% 9.3% -1.9% 8.5x 8.6x 6.3% -7.7% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 324.00 29,254 1.3% 11.0% -2.1% 9.2x 8.3x 22.3% 9.8% Average 6.26% 15.25% 3.05% 8.7x 8.4x 22.6% 2.5% Exploration & Production (E&P) CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 15.30 87,271 3.5% 11.5% -16.0% 7.9x 8.1x 33.2% -2.3% Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 155.00 82,413 1.0% 16.9% 15.1% 9.7x 8.7x 36.8% 8.1% Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 32.82 50,785 9.9% 13.8% -14.3% 9.6x 9.8x 50.7% 2.1% Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 80.88 40,276 0.8% 21.5% 5.2% 26.1x 23.9x 104.8% 4.3% Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 98.09 37,672 0.6% 12.8% -19.1% 8.4x 7.9x 52.5% 6.4% Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 32.18 26,142 0.9% -9.6% -19.8% 14.9x 13.7x 9.1% 12.5% Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 58.56 19,608 0.2% 5.3% -18.7% 9.4x 8.4x -0.1% 10.6% PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP THB 181.00 18,995 8.4% 22.3% 2.0% 13.6x 11.1x 5.4% 22.8% Average 3.17% 11.80% -8.22% 12.5x 11.5x 36.6% 8.1% EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield Company Company Name FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 Integrated O&G Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 4.7x 4.8x 2.5x 2.3x 25.5% 22.0% 46.40% 47.50% 2.16% 2.27% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 6.3x 5.6x 1.6x 1.4x 14.2% 14.9% 36.42% 36.70% 3.90% 4.39% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 4.1x 4.0x 1.4x 1.2x 17.6% 16.0% 22.20% 21.90% 4.59% 4.85% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.3x 3.5x 1.8x 1.6x 23.8% 19.5% 45.20% 46.00% 2.82% 3.02% BP plc LSE:BP. 3.7x 3.7x 1.3x 1.1x 20.5% 18.2% 18.90% 19.80% 3.75% 4.13% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 5.2x 4.7x 1.3x 1.2x 16.8% 16.0% 16.75% 17.14% 3.19% 3.50% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 3.8x 3.9x 1.5x 1.4x 17.6% 16.0% 28.30% 29.40% 3.55% 3.82% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 6.7x 5.9x 1.6x 1.4x 19.4% 18.6% 9.06% 9.59% 3.85% 4.12% Average 4.7x 4.5x 1.6x 1.5x 19.4% 17.6% 27.90% 28.50% 3.48% 3.76% Exploration & Production (E&P) CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 4.2x 4.2x 2.1x 1.8x 28.8% 23.2% 59.33% 53.10% 4.27% 4.12% Statoil ASA OB:STL 2.2x 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x 24.6% 20.0% 47.05% 48.85% 4.20% 4.46% Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 5.2x 5.2x 1.3x 1.2x 14.6% 12.7% 60.80% 62.40% 1.33% 1.41% Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 6.9x 5.8x 2.1x 1.9x 5.3% 8.2% 70.70% 71.30% 0.45% 0.45% Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.7x 3.4x 1.3x 1.2x 16.9% 15.7% 78.10% 79.30% 0.65% 0.64% Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 9.7x 7.5x 2.0x 1.8x 13.9% 13.6% 69.90% 68.60% 3.51% 3.67% Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 3.5x 3.2x 1.0x 0.9x 12.4% 11.5% 25.10% 25.30% 0.72% 0.71% PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP 5.9x 4.9x 3.0x 2.5x 23.3% 24.3% 52.74% 50.76% 2.86% 3.51% Average 5.1x 4.5x 1.8x 1.6x 17.5% 16.1% 57.97% 57.45% 2.25% 2.37% Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & Poor’s Equity Re search
  • 3. January 11, 2012 Global Strat egy S&P Capital IQ Research S&P Capital IQ U.S. includes Standard & Poor’s Research– Glossary Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Europe includes Standard & Poor’s LLC- London; Standard & Poor’s Equity 3 Research Services Asia includes Standard & Poor’s LLC’s offices in Singapore, S&P STARS - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong, universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services (American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future (Australia) Pty Ltd. performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS® Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank CAPEX- Capital Expenditures equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return CY- Calendar Year potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional DCF- Discounted Cash Flow index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining EPS- Earnings Per Share the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal EV- Enterprise Value proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs. FCF- Free Cash Flow S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings Rankings)- FFO- Funds From Operations Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in FY- Fiscal Year establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are P/E- Price/Earnings designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and PV- Present Value modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for R&D- Research & Development each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores ROE- Return on Equity of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of ROI- Return on Investment this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: ROIC- Return on Invested Capital ROA- Return on Assets A+ Highest B+ Average C Lowest SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses A High B Below Average D In Reorganization WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital A- Above Average B- Lower NR Not Ranked Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository S&P Issuer Credit Rating - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin). opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of Disclosures/Disclaimers the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. Required Disclosures In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology, Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods, compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment, analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations. the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and S&P Global STARS Distribution depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to In North America which some types of data is disclosed by companies. As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North America recommended 39.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.4% Earnings S&P Core Earnings - S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for with hold recommendations and 3.5% with sell recommendations. adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are In Europe employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, Europe recommended 31.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 50.6% with purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized hold recommendations and 17.9% with sell recommendations. gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains, impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior- In Asia year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements. As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the recommended 43.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 51.0% with hold market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a recommendations and 5.2% with sell recommendations. combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P Fair Value. Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
  • 4. January 11, 2012 Global Strat egy Globally S&P Capital IQ or an affiliate may license certain intellectual property or provide As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research pricing or other services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain issuers 4 globally recommended 38.3% of issuers with buy recommendations, 55.7% with hold of securities, including exchange-traded investments whose investment objective is recommendations and 6.0% with sell recommendations. to substantially replicate the returns of a proprietary Standard & Poor's index, such as the S&P 500. In cases where S&P Capital IQ or an affiliate is paid fees that are 5-STARS (Strong Buy) Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a Buy): tied to the amount of assets that are invested in the fund or the volume of trading relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising activity in the fund, investment in the fund will generally result in S&P Capital IQ or in price on an absolute basis. an affiliate earning compensation in addition to the subscription fees or other 4-STARS (Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant compensation for services rendered by S&P Capital IQ. A reference to a particular benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute investment or security by S&P Capital IQ and/or one of its affiliates is not a basis. recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, nor is it 3-STARS (Hold): Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a considered to be investment advice. relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis. Indexes are unmanaged, statistical composites and their returns do not include 2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not securities they represent. Such costs would lower performance. It is not possible to anticipated to show a gain. invest directly in an index. 1-STARS (Strong Sell Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a Sell): relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling S&P Capital IQ and its affiliates provide a wide range of services to, or relating to, in price on an absolute basis. many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker- dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, Relevant benchmarks: In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are generally the S&P Europe organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may 350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index. recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address. For All Regions: For a list of companies mentioned in this report with whom S&P Capital IQ and/or All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research one of its affiliates has had business relationships within the past year, please go analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or to: issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, http://www.standardandpoors.com/products- related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research services/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245187982940 report. S&P Global Quantitative Recommendations Distribution Disclaimers In Europe With respect to reports issued to clients in Japan and in the case of inconsistencies As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Europe between the English and Japanese version of a report, the English version prevails. recommended 50.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 18.5% with hold With respect to reports issued to clients in German and in the case of recommendations and 30.8% with sell recommendations. inconsistencies between the English and German version of a report, the English version prevails. Neither S&P Capital IQ nor its affiliates guarantee the accuracy of In Asia the translation. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Asia the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance recommended 47.6% of issuers with buy recommendations, 21.9% with hold is not necessarily indicative of future results. recommendations and 30.5% with sell recommendations. S&P Capital IQ, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, Globally officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services globally guarantee the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of this material, and S&P recommended 48.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 20.7% with hold Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, recommendations and 30.6% with sell recommendations regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of the information information Additional information is available upon request. provided by the S&P Parties. 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