Alt R - ACPL - Initiating Coverage - 15th Sept 2016

ACPL Initiating Coverage
We initiate the coverage of Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL)
with the “BUY” recommendation and the target price for Jun’17 of
PKR 322/share providing total upside of 32.29%, including capital
gain accounting for 28.29% at the current price of 251 and dividend
yield 4% on target price. The major reasons behind our bullish
stance derive from:
• Expansion on fast track: Expansion of production capacity by
1.2mn tons at its existing site with estimated cost of USD 130mn
• Leading the growth in South: Acceleration in topline on back of
being the first player in south to come online with expansion and
get maximum benefit
• Growing cement demand: Increase in cement demand on back
of materialization of CPEC, booming housing sector and high
allocation under PSDP
• Focus on Domestic Market: Based on high expected demand
from domestic market and falling export, it is expected the
company would shift its focus toward domestic market
• Change in Capital Structure: The expansion of plant would cost
around USD 130mn and management have decided to opt for
debt to equity ratio of 51:49
• Healthy growth in bottom line: Robust earning growth for ACPL
post expansion is expected to increase from EPS PKR 25.24/sh in
FY16 to EPS PKR 41.94/sh in FY21
Asia Pac | Pakistan | Equities
Cement
Thursday, September 15, 2016
This report has been prepared by Alternate Research and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances it is to be used
or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This information has been compiled from sources we believe to be
reliable, but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report
constitute our present judgment only and are subject to change without notice. This report is intended for persons having professional
experience in matters relating to investments.
ACPL | Bright future ahead !
Source: PSX, Alt-R Team
CURRENT MARKET DATA
Current Price (PKR/sh) 251
Target Price (PKR/sh) 322
Year High - Low (PKR/sh) 277 – 155
Market Cap (PKR mn) 28,745.14
Market Cap (USD mn) 275.53
P/B 2.76
P/ETTM 7.6
Free Float (%) 20
Relative Performance
Source: PSX, Bloomberg
Target Price: PKR 322/share
Recommendation: BUY !
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
ACPL KSE-100
*EPS and BVPS based on 114.52mn shares and reoccurrence
**P/E for estimated years is based on current price of 251/sh as of 7th Sept, 2016
Source: Company Financials, Alt-R Team
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
FY2015A FY2016A FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
EPS* 19.26 25.24 26.55 30.03 31.15 36.67 41.94
DPS 15 12.5 13 16.5 18 22 25.5
BVPS* 78 91 105 122 137 156 176
PE (x)** 9.7 7.6 9.5 8.4 8.1 6.8 6.0
Div Payout 78% 50% 49% 55% 57% 59% 60%
EBITDA Margin 28% 32% 34% 36% 35% 35% 35%
GPM 34% 40% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39%
OPM 25% 31% 30% 31% 30% 31% 31%
NPM 17% 21% 21% 20% 19% 20% 21%
Equity Research Analyst
Ali Jumani
a.jumani@alt-research.com

EXPANSION ON FAST TRACK
In view of high expected demand on back of CPEC materialization, high PSDP
spending and booming construction sector, In August 2015, ACPL
management put forward their intention to expand the cement production
capacity by 1.2mn tons from 1.83mn tons to 3.09mn tons per annum at the
existing plant site. The company is already operating at capacity of 105% thus
this expansion is desperately required to capture the flourishing market. The
estimated capital outlay would be around USD 130mn. Moreover, ACPL has
signed an agreement with a Chinese company for supply of 4,000tpd cement
manufacturing plant which is expected to come online by December 2017 as
necessary work on civil, mechanical and electrical infrastructure/installation is
now being carried out..
Besides production line expansion, Attock cement was also planning to install
40 MW Coal Fired Power Plant costing USD 50 million, however according to
management due to acute shortage of water in Hub Dam, which is the only
source of water for the plant operations; work on project has stopped. The
company in 2014 started venture capital with Iranian party under the name
of “Saqr Al-Keetan” to establish a cement grinding facility at Basra, Iraq. The
plant has a capacity of 900,000 tons costing USD 40mn representing 60%
share of ACPL. We believe with outlay of USD 130mn due to expansion Attock
Cement will keep this project on hold for now.
LEADING THE GROWTH IN SOUTH
As cement despatches are expected to skyrocket in upcoming years, many
players in cement sector have revealed their intention to expand their
production capacity. Out of the total cement production capacity of 45.62MT,
South Zone processes 17% of it which translates into 7.65MT as of FY16. With
expansion of ACPL, LUCK, DGKC and POWER in South Zone the cement
production capacity is expected to reach 13.70MT from 7.65MT, an increase
of 79%. As Attock Cement is expected to come online by the end of 2017,
almost a year before DGKC is expected to start production is South, this will
surely provide them advantage in South. Attock Cement is currently
operating at capacity utilization of 105% and selling all what its producing as
Falcon, Attock’s cement brand name, is very well known brand in market.
Further, we expect that once Attock plant comes online it will operate at 70%
utilization and increase gradually over the years. Hence, the increased
production from expansion will dissolve to some extend until LUCK and DGKC
comes online.
Cement
Source: Alt-R Team, APCMA
Industry Capacity Expansion
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
FY2019E
FY2020E
Capacity (MT)
Total Capacity North South
Source: Company Accounts, Alt-R Team
Attock’s Production Capacity & Utilization
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
MT
Clinker Capacity (LHS) Cement Capacity (LHS) Capacity Utilization (RHS)

Cement
GROWING DOMESTIC CEMENT DEMAND
As per research conducted by CEMTEC, Pakistan is amongst the three
Cement Hotspots in the world where demand is expected to grow at its
fastest. In Pakistan, infrastructure projects and the housing sector are
the key drivers for consumption of cement. We believe on back of
following factors cement demand is expected to fly high:
• Infrastructure projects worth USD 9.8b are planned to be undertaken
under China Pakistan Economic Corridor
• High spending for infrastructure projects as per allocations made
under Public Sector Development Programs. Currently Federal PSDP
of PKR 800bn is allocated for FY16-17 particularly for construction of
dams, roads and bridges
• Large infrastructure projects include Gwadar Airport, Gwadar Deep
Sea Port, Hydropower project of around 10,000MW capacity and
Karachi-Lahore Motorway
• Increasing urbanization with urban areas having lower number of
people per household vis-à-vis rural areas creating additional
demand for housing units
• Significant backlog of housing units estimated at 9 million units and
announcement of various plans by the government to address this
shortfall
• New affordable mega housing projects (Bahria Town, DHA, and LDA
City)
Based on all the above mentioned factors we expect total cement
despatches, mainly domestic despatches, to increase robustly in near
future. Considering both historical growth and future scenario we
expect total cement despatches to grow at CAGR of 6.6% from FY17 till
FY21 against CAGR of 4.6% from FY12 till FY16. Currently cement
industry is operating at capacity utilization of 85%, we expect this
utilization rate to increase to 88% in FY17 with increasing demand but
will start dwindling once expansion from different players starts to
materialize and reach 75% between FY20 and FY21. Exports have been
shrinking over the last few years and outlook over the next 2‐3 years is
not particularly bright. We expect exports to shrink further in future
resulting in industry sales mix of 90:10 with 90% being domestic market.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MT
Local Despatches
Export Despatches
Total Dispatches
Actual and Estimated Industry
Despatches
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
MT
Production Capacity (LHS) Total Dispatches (LHS) Capacity Utilization (RHS)
Production Capacity accounts for Expansion of LUCK, DGKC, POWER, ACPL, MLCF, CHCC, KOHC, FECTO and PIOC
Industry Production Capacity, Despatches and Utilization

Cement
28%
72%
Share of export in Total Company dispatches
Share of local in Total Company dispatches
Sales Mix
2016
11%
89%
2021
ACPL Market Share
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
ACPL Market Share (based on installed capacity)
Share in Total Industry Dispatches
FOCUS ON DOMESTIC MARKET
As domestic demand is expected to surge on back of materialization
of CPEC, higher investment in PSDP and booming construction sector
while exports are expected to fall due to anti-dumping duties
imposed on cement sector by South Africa plus competition from
cheap Iranian cement in international market and international
capacity expansion, we anticipate Attock cement to change its sales
mix in order to make the most of this excellent opportunity by
focusing on domestic market. Currently, ACPL sales mix showcase
72:28 ratio with 72% representing domestic sales. We expect this
sales mix to change gradually and reach about 89:11 by 2021.
Attock Cement currently has a market share (based on installed
capacity) of 4% as of FY16. With this expansion expected to come
online by 2QFY18, the market share is expected to increase to 6.12%
in FY18. We don’t expect ACPL’s market share to sustain because of
other expansions anticipated in FY18 and FY19 (DGKC, MLCF and
LUCK with estimated capacity of 10.65mn tons). Hence, market share
is likely to deteriorate moving forward.
Based on the total industry despatches, ACPL’s market share
currently stands at 5.1%. As ACPL is already operating at capacity of
105% they won’t be able to reap the benefit of increased demand in
FY17 as a result drop in market share can be foreseen. However,
with expansion in FY18, the market share in total despatches is
expected to heighten but fall thereafter as tough competition from
LUCK and DGKC is expected.
FY2016FY2017EFY2018EFY2019EFY2020EFY2021E
ACPL Market Share (based on
installed capacity)*
4.0% 3.9% 6.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Share in Total Industry
Despatches
5.1% 4.7% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
Share of export in Total Company
Despatches
28% 22% 19% 14% 11% 11%
Share of local in Total Company
Despatches
72% 78% 81% 86% 89% 89%
*Market Share considers expansion of LUCK, DGKC, POWER, ACPL, MLCF, CHCC, KOHC, FECTO and PIOC

Cement
Loan Terms
Principal borrowed: $66,300,000
Interest Rate: 3m Kibor + 0.2%
Tenure: 5 years
Grace Period 2 Years
Loan initiation FY17
Source: Alt-R Team
CHANGE IN CAPITAL STRUCTURE
In order to expand the production facility by 1.2MT the company opted
partially for long-term financing and partially for internally generated
cash flow. Thus, we expect that the total cost of project, which is around
USD 130mn, will be divided into the debt to equity ratio of 51:49 which
translates into long-term financing portion being USD 66.3mn (PKR 7bn)
while company will invest remaining amount of USD 63.7mn (PKR 6.5bn)
from internally generated cash flow. The loan has been arranged by
local Punjab Bank with the support of MCB Bank, Allied Bank, Askari
Bank and United Bank Ltd.
As per our talk with the management, the loan will be provided for 5
years having grace period of 2 years. The cost of financing would be 3
months Kibor + 0.2%. Furthermore, we expect interest will be
capitalized until the plant gets complete for commercial production. We
further expect Kibor to showcase increasing trend in the future as
inflation have started to rebound which will result in significant interest
outlay but we believe that ACPL will be able to pay finance cost with
ease as topline and operating profits are expected to excel on back of
increased demand and market share post expansion.
Moreover, we expect as expansion is a long process and plant will come
online by FY18, the company will likely receive financing in two chunks,
major portion will be falling in FY17 while the remaining financing will be
used in FY18. Additionally, the use of leverage will help provide support
to bottom line in shape of tax shield.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E
Long-Term Debt Finance Cost (RHS)
Long-Term Financing and Finance Cost(In mn) (In mn)

Cement
0
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100
120
140
160
180
200
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
BVPS (RHS) EPS (LHS) DPS (LHS)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
GPM OPM NPM EBITDA Margin
PKR Mn FY16 FY15 YoY
Sales 13,918 13,086 6%
COGS 8,332 8,690 -4%
GP 5,587 4,396 27%
PBT 4,236 3,221 32%
NPAT 2,890 2,206 31%
EPS 25.24 19.26 31%
Financial Highlights
Margins
EPS, DPS and BVPS
HEALTHY GROWTH IN BOTTOM LINE
We anticipate earnings of ACPL to surge massively post expansion from
mere EPS PKR 25.24/sh in FY16 to EPS PKR 41.97/sh in FY21E, an
increase of 66%. However, a slow down in earning growth is expected
once other cement manufacturers get their expansion online.
Moreover, we expect ACPL management to continue paying hefty
dividends as the working capital requirement are lower than the cash
generated from operations. The major upsurge in bottom line stems
from
• Boost in sales on back of increase in production capacity, higher
domestic sales due to shift in sales mix and strong demand on back
high construction activity expected to incur in future
• We expect retention prices on back of strong demand are likely
grow further in future leading to increase in the profits
• COGS are assumed to hover between 60-62% due to weak outlook
of fuel and coal prices giving boost to the margins
• Shift in sales mix from 72:28 to 89:11 will further decrease the
distribution cost thus increasing operating margins
• The benefit from using leverage will provide tax shield to ACPL
leading to better profit margins
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
Sales Gross Proft Operating Profit Net Profit
ACPL Estimated Sales and Profits
FY16 PERFORMANCE
Sales for FY16 clocked at 13.92bn resulting gross profit to prospered by
27%YoY to settle at PKR 5.59bn. This rise was supported from marvelous
rise in local despatches by 23.8%. Additionally, reduction in power cost
on back of fuel adjustment owing to dip in international oil prices and
along with dip in coal prices decrease growth in cost to sales to 4%YoY.
PBT has achieved enormous growth of 32%YoY in FY16. Despite the
bulky gain in PBT, NPAT limited to 31%YoY owing to rise in tax payment
by 33%YoY. Consequently, earnings for the year clocked in at PKR
2.89bn (EPS: PKR 25.24), depicting a growth of 31%YoY against PKR
2.29bn recorded last year.

Cement
VALUATION
We initiate coverage on Attock Cement Pakistan Limoted (ACPL), with
‘Buy’ rating and a TP of PKR 322/sh, implying 28.29% upside potential
from its closing price PKR 251/sh of Sept 09, 2016. We have used
discounted cash flow (Free Cash Flow to Firm) methodology to derive
the intrinsic value of ACPL at PKR 322/sh. The stock also offers a
dividend yield of 4% making total yield of 32.29%. Following
assumptions have been used to arrive at the our target price:
FY2016A FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
WACC 14.9% 9.8% 11.1% 12.2% 12.8% 13.7%
EBIT(1-t) 2,905 2,568 3,621 4,021 4,461 5,022
Depreciation 244 680 922 879 837 796
CAPEX -303 -11,186 -2,428 -102 -100 -53
Change in WC -59 667 -805 -406 64 671
FCFF 2,786 -7,271 1,309 4,392 5,263 6,436
PV of FCFF 2,424 -6,035 956 2,773 2,877 3,023
Sum of PV 6,018
Terminal Value 71,050
PV of Terminal Value 30,817
Equity Value 36,835
No. of Shares (mn) 114.52
Target Price 322
Upside @ 251/sh 28.29%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450 Average Price 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x
P/E VALUATION
By analyzing P/E band it can be witnessed that on average ACPL usually
traded between P/E of 8x and 10x. Currently the P/E hover below the
P/E 8x (29% discount) suggesting that the scrip is very well undervalue
against Allt-R cement universe average P/E of 11.34x. Hence, Supporting
our valuation and depicting a potential gain near future.
Valuation Parameters
RFR 7.75%
Beta* 1.15
Market Premium 6.25%
Cost of Equity 14.94%
Sustainable Growth 4%
*5-years monthly beta to reduce the impact of volatility
on our valuation.
Source: Alt-R Team, PSX
PT Sensitivity
Risk free rate
Growth
Rates
% 6.75 7.25 7.75 8.25 8.75
3.0 289 292 294 297 299
3.5 301 304 307 310 312
4 315 318 322 324 327
4.5 330 333 337 340 343
5.0 347 351 354 358 361
Source: Alt-R Team

Cement
KEY RISKS
• If cement demand growth is weaker than expected, it could impact
the ability of the industry to push through accretive price increases
and lower breakeven utilization on of new capacities.
• Cement industry has remained on an active watch-list of the
Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCoP) and has been slapped
faced fines on allegations of collusive pricing arrangements. Previous
fines by manufacturers have remained unpaid yet and case awaits
verdict on the matter.
• Lower than expected allocation of budgeted Public sector
development fund will hurt domestic cement off take. With declining
demand eminent from export avenues, lower PSDP will pose a threat
for manufacturers.
• Technical problems in the new line and resultant delay in production
may hurt profitability in the near term. Delays in capacity
commissioning will lead to lower volume off-take and hence
reduce profit outlook.
• Lower than forecasted capacity utilization of the new plant (lower
demand) will serve as a key risk to our valuations.
• Sharp recovery in input, coal and fuel costs can inflate cost pressure.
The gross margins are likely to erode owing to surge in fuel prices and
electricity prices.
• Sharp increase in finance cost can erode the bottle line because of
recent hefty financing for its expansionary business.
• South region has in the past has been prone to many terrorist attacks
and various acts of violence which has had adverse effect on the law
an d order situation in the region. These may lead to plant operation
disruptions and hence impact profitability. However, ACPL’s
operations have not got impacted so far due to such events in the
past.
• The expansions of many player are likely to pose a threat of
price war if the local demand didn’t surge as expected.

Cement
FINANCIALS
INCOME STATEMENT FY2016A FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
Net sales 13,918 14,703 17,151 18,866 20,779 22,707
Cost of sales 8,332 9,112 10,467 11,571 12,643 13,766
Gross profit 5,586 5,592 6,684 7,295 8,136 8,940
Distribution costs 955 934 1,040 1,097 1,172 1,293
Administrative
expenses 402 452 514 562 616 675
Other expenses 314 321 370 390 453 511
Other income 341 475 487 499 570 612
Profit from operations 4,257 4,360 5,247 5,745 6,465 7,073
Finance cost 21 16 334 648 467 211
Profit before taxation 4,236 4,344 4,913 5,097 5,999 6,862
Taxation 1,346 1,303 1,474 1,529 1,800 2,059
Profit after taxation 2,890 3,041 3,439 3,568 4,199 4,803
BALANCE SHEET FY2016A FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
Current assets 6,896 5,177 9,075 10,607 11,942 12,435
PPE 7,117 18,862 18,003 17,173 16,386 15,639
Non-current assets 7,232 18,985 18,135 17,313 16,526 15,781
Total assets 14,128 24,163 27,210 27,920 28,468 28,215
Current liabilities 2,337 2,840 2,849 2,701 3,285 4,624
Non-current liabilities 1,344 9,749 9,831 8,111 5,400 1,405
Long-term Liablitiy 0 5553 6941 5357 3,094 -
Total liabilities 3,681 12,589 12,680 10,813 8,685 6,029
Share capital and reserves 10,447 11,574 14,530 17,108 19,783 22,186
Total equity and liabilities 14,128 24,163 27,210 27,920 28,468 28,215
RATIOS FY2016A FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E FY2021E
Profitability Ratios
Return on Equity (ROE - %) 28% 25% 25% 23% 24% 24%
Return on Asset (ROA - %) 20% 13% 13% 13% 15% 17%
Gross Margin (%) 40% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39%
Operating Margin 31% 30% 31% 30% 31% 31%
Net Margin (%) 21% 21% 20% 19% 20% 21%
EBIDA Margin 32% 34% 36% 35% 35% 35%
Liquidity Ratios
Quick Ratio (x) 2.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.1
Current Ratio (x) 1.9 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5
Cash flow liquidity 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.9 4.7 3.6
Leverage
Debt ratio 26% 50% 49% 44% 37% 29%
L-T Debt to Total Capitalization 11% 43% 43% 38% 29% 15%
Times interest earn 200 276 16 9 14 34
Cash Flow Adequacy 1.31 0.35 3.04 1.26 1.16 0.95

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Alt R - ACPL - Initiating Coverage - 15th Sept 2016

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