Loads Limited IPO to Raise PKR 750 Million for Expansion

504, 5th Floor, Business Avenue, Plot 26-A, Block-6, P.E.C.H.S.,
Shahra -e-Faisal, Karachi.
PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
WEBSITE : www.alt-research.com
EMAIL : research@alt-research.com
Loads Limited - IPO
Loads Limited, a public listed company, is a member of Ali Group which is
a conglomerate of blue chip listed companies, is offering 50mn shares
representing 40.00% of the total post IPO paid-up capital of the
Company. The issue will be made available through book building process
to high net worth individuals and institutional investors with 71.25% of
the total issue size equivalent to 35.625mn shares. The remaining shares,
28.75% - 14.375mn, will be made available to the general public at a
strike price determined through book building inclusive of 2.5mn
ordinary shares to be allotted to employees on preferential basis. The
price will be determined in the book building process carrying a Floor
Price of PKR 15.00/sh.
Group Profile
Loads Limited is part of a conglomerate of blue chip listed companies
engaged in diverse industrial and business activities such as packaging,
insurance, investment banking, engineering, vegetable oil, soaps, razor
blades, food products, etc. The group’s strategy includes generating
synergies by sharing resources within the business units. Associated and
Group companies includes following companies:
Company Information
Loads Limited was incorporated in 1979 as an auto parts manufacturing
company and since then the Company over the last 36 years has brought
together a team of technically skilled and well versed individuals. The top
management of Loads Limited comprises of some of the most experienced
individuals in the industry. The Company lays a strong emphasis on
recruiting and retaining the best professionals. Treet Corporation Limited
(“TCL”), one of the main sponsors of Loads Limited, is the holding company
of one of the oldestand most renowned business groups in Pakistan.
Product Offering
Loads is recognized for the reliability and quality of its products. It is the
leading manufacturer of exhaust systems (including mufflers/silencers &
pipes) for locally assembled vehicles i.e. Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, Hino and
other vehicles. The Company also manufactures brass & copper radiators
according to customers’ designs and specifications.
In addition, the Company provides a wide variety of customized sheet
metal components of all shapes and sizes, such as fuel tank protectors,
insulators, floor reinforcers, roof components, suspension arms, door
plating’s,bikestands etc.
Asia Pac| Pakistan | Equities
Automotive
Wednesday,September06, 2016
This report has been prepared by Alternate Research and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances it is to be used
or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This information has been compiled from sources we believe to be
reliable, but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report
constitute our present judgment only and are subject to change without notice. This report is intended for persons having professional
experience in matters relating to investments.
Loads Limited:Loaded IPO
Floor Price: PKR 15
Source: Loads Limited prospectus
Shares Offerors
% # of shares
Book Building 71.25% 35.625mn
IPO 28.75% 14.375mn
Shares offload 100.00% 50mn
20%
17%
63%
Radiators Sheet Metal Components Exhaust Systems
SalesMix
S. No Name of Company Business Type
1 Treet Corporation Limited Razor Blades
2 Packages Limited Packagingmaterials
3 IGI InsuranceLimited Insurance
Equity ResearchAnalyst
Ali Jumani
a.jumani@alt-research.com
71.25%
28.75%
Institutional Investors General Public
IPO Distribution

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
Automotive
Particulars
Estimated Cost (PKR
Million)
% of Total Estimated
Cost
Expansionof Business Line & New
Projects
224.6 29.90%
Modernization& Automation 325.4 43.40%
WorkingCapital 200 26.70%
Total 750 100%
Product Units
Existing
Capacity
Increased
Capacity
Increase %
Exhaust Systems / Silencers
/ Mufflers
Assemblies 150,000 275,000 83%
Radiators Assemblies 100,000 120,000 20%
RadiatorCores Assemblies 80,000 175,000 119%
Heater Cores Assemblies 50,000 55,000 10%
Sheet Metal Components Units 3,100,000 6,500,000 109%
Customers Profile
The Company's primary customer base includes multi-national assemblers
of passenger cars, trucks, buses, tractors and motorcycles, representing
reputable names like Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, Hino, Nissan and Yamaha.
Loads enjoys 100% market share in most of the products it offers to these
automobile assemblers. Further, as per auto industry practice, agreements
with buyers for supply of parts, are long term in nature and renewed
automatically. This is especially applicable to sole suppliers who have
technology, foreign collaboration, equipment, dies and moulds for
manufacturing the products.
Reason for Issuing Equity
Loads Limited plans to raise PKR 750mn for expansion and modernization of
manufacturing facilities. With a strike price at floor rate, company will be
able to raise sufficient funds to ensure BMR activities. The company also
plans to invest in acquisition of equipment, dies, tooling and building facility
to manufacture auto parts for their new two wheeler customer i.e. Yamaha
Name ofClient
Productssupplied-Loads
Limited
Loads Market Shares
Radiators
Exhaust
Systems
Sheet Metal
Components
Pak Suzuki Motor Radiator, Muffler & SMC 80% 100%
Hinopak Motors Radiator, Muffler 100% 100%
Indus Motor Muffler & SMC 100% 100%
Honda Atlas Cars Muffler & SMC 100% 100%
Master Motors Radiator & Muffler 100% 100%
Gandhara Industries Radiator 100%
Millat Tractors Radiator 20%
Gandhara Nissan Radiator 100%
Yamaha Motor SMC 100%
56%
20%
10%
14%
Indus Motor Pak Suzuki
Honda Atlas Others
Major Customers
Capacity Addition
Post implementation of expansion plans, the Company will experience a
modest increasein its production capacities as:

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
Growth in Auto sectorto triggerearnings growth for Loads:
Loads Limited, being an automotive parts manufacturer, earnings are
directly correlated to the production and sale of vehicles in the country
specially of the company’s primary customer. Further, we observed 6 years
data of car sales and Loads earnings fromFY10 till FY15 to see the relation.
Automotive
Company/Sector Key Issues
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, PAMA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Net Profit
Gross Profit
Vehicle sales
ProfitabilityRelative to Auto Sales
Particular FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Vehicle Sales* 146,559 150,444 182,710 138,290 140,686 185,208
GP(‘000) 188,016 358,257 328,827 328,759 308,407 494,490
Net-profit (‘000) 74,377 201,654 166,368 102,711 134,909 211,053
*Vehicle Sales includes sales of cars/LCVs/Trucks/Buses/Tractors
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, PAMA
The data displays, as vehicles are build based on advance booking, that as
vehicle sales increases the demand for automotive parts also increases
leading to better profitability for Loads Limited. Moreover, a lag can be
seen between vehicle sales and GP/NP in the graph (RHS) as the GP/NP of
the Loads increased in FY11 due to better sales of automotive parts the
vehicle sales also increase in the following year FY12. Similarly,a reversal of
this phenomena can be grasped by looking how drop in vehicle sales in
FY13 drastically reduced the profitability of Loads Limited in FY12 and FY13
causing NP to clock at PKR 166.4mn and PKR 102.7mn respectively.
The government's Automotive Development Policy 2016-2020 offers tax
breaks to new assemblers to set up plants and tightens quality assurance
rules for existing manufacturers. It is largely silent, however, on imports of
refurbished Japanese cars, which are eroding the small car market for
Japanese-affiliated local manufacturers. Another incentive is that new
entrants will pay 10% import duty on parts and accessories made outside
Pakistan for five years, while existing assemblers continue to pay 30%.
Hence, the anticipated entry of other auto manufacturers in Pakistan,
including Nissan, Datsun, Renault, Volkswagen etc. in the near future
could give a really tough time to the Big 3 in Pakistan, which are the biggest
clients of Loads Limited. There is risk of big three sales to be affected which
will ultimately affectthe topline of Loads Limited.
Based on management estimates, Loads Limited expects that sale of Cars
and LCVs will grow at CAGR of 16.06% from FY17 till FY20 whereas the
historical CAGR from FY11 till FY15 calculates to be just 4.25%. It appears
that the company expects individual income to increase so significantly
that they will excessively demand for new cars in coming years. Moreover,
a study done by PAKWHEELS having a sample size of 11,000+ respondents
reveals the buying habits of Pakistanis with 60% of the respondents buying
used cars and 40% buying new cars. Similarly, Loads appears to be quite
optimistic about sales of HCV and Tractors as it expects it to grow at CAGR
of 19.93% and 10% against historical CAGR of 12.36% and -8.88%
respectively. Hence, we believe that company, in order to appear attractive
to investors, has exaggerated growth rates based on which it has
forecasted the sales to grow at CAGR of 25.3% againstCAGR of just18%.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
ThousandsMillions
Revenues (PKR)
Cars/LCV (units)
HCV/Tractors (units)
Loads Revenue & Auto Sales
Source: Loads prospectus, Management Estimates, PAMA

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
Competitors and Market Share
Currently, there are about 375 Tier-1 Auto parts manufacturers (APMs) and
1,600 Tier-2 suppliers, who comply with global standards to produce
localized auto parts that are being used in assembly of multi-national
vehicles in the country. Cars, heavy vehicles, tractors and motor cycles
assembled in Pakistan use almost 55% to 70% of the auto parts that are
manufactured by the local APMs. The quality of locally manufactured auto
parts is certified by international standards and approved as per
specifications prescribed by the global car assemblers.
Automotive
Product Name of Company Estimated Market Share %
Exhaust Systems/ Mufflers 800cc 1000cc
1300cc &
>1300cc
Total
Loads Limited 92 76 100 95
Competitors (Unlistedcompanies) 8 24 - 5
100 100 100 100
Radiators(Cars)
800cc 1000cc
1300cc &
>1300cc
Total
Loads Limited 60 100 - 40
Competitors : Listed company (ThalLtd) - 100 50
Unlisted companies 40 - - 10
100 100 100 100
Radiators(Tucks) Total
Loads Limited 9
Competitors (Unlistedcompanies) 91
100
Sheet Metal Component Total
Loads Limited 20
Competitors (Unlistedcompanies/SMEs) 80
100
Radiator Core Total
Loads Limited 35
Competitors (Unlistedcompanies/SMEs) 65
100
The company seems quite optimistic regarding its market share with new
players expected to enter in the auto sector, on back of ‘Automobile
Development Policy 2016-21’, It is expected that the sales of the Big 3
might get affected significantly which will ultimately result in affecting the
topline of Loads Limited as they are its main clients i.e. Pak Suzuki, Indus
Motor and Atlas Honda. The company does have agreements with buyers
for supply of parts, they are long term in nature and renewed
automatically. However, besides Loads, there are many other automotive
makers of the same products as produced by Loads Limited in the industry
such as Briter Engineering, M.G.A. Industries, Shahid Engineering, Aliwin
Engineering Industries, Metaline Industries, Auvitronics Limited, Silencer
Ssilencers, Briter Engineering Company, Affaq Corporation etc. which can
not be ignored and will strivefor market shareas well in future.

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
Volatility in Profit Margins
The company margins have been quite volatile in the past especially Net
Profit Margins being 12%, highest ever, in FY12 while just 6% in FY15.
Based on 6MFY16 about 71% of the raw material used by Loads for
manufacturing of Exhaust Systems, represents 63% of total sales, is
imported which shows how sensitive cost of manufacturing is to
international commodity prices. The company COGS have been hovering
between 84%-87% due to high input costs as the basic raw material
consume by the company includes commodity like Steel, Tin, Zinc,
Aluminum, Lead and Copper. Hence, high costs of inputs leave little room
for margins and maintaining such GP margins could prove to be a hassle as
international commodity prices are quite volatile. Additionally, since the
start of CY16 the international commodity prices have started to recover if
the trend continues it is going to increase the input cost further making
hard for Loads to maintain margins.
The margins set by Loads Limited sandwiched between FY17-FY20 seems a
bit far from reality. It appears that the company, in order to keep margins
constant, have exaggerated forecasted sales of cars, LCV, trucks, and
tractors. Moreover, fluctuations in currencies, especially JPY, can
significantly affect the company’s earnings as Loads imports latest
technologies and state-of-the-art machines for manufacturing of radiators
and exhaust systems from Japan.
Some Other Issues
Government policies towards automotive industry are quite unstable. At
times government allows import of 5-7 years old vehicles which badly
affect local industry sales. Ultimately, in order to run their operations they
need to increasethe prices of their products or to layoff their employees.
Overseas Pakistanis are allowed to bring one car with them once they
return to Pakistan after a period of 6 months and this facility has been
grossly misused by them as the trader lobby buys them out and they have
become importers of used cars. Due to this misuse by the overseas
Pakistanis, Pakistan is being turned into a junkyard of scrap cars. Thus, this
practicehas been adversely affecting the local industry.
Automotive
Source: FXTop, Alt-R Team
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Gross Margin (%)
Operating Margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
Loads Margins
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, Management Estimates
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Gross Margin 13% 21% 16% 13% 13% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Operating Margin 9% 17% 12% 9% 8% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Net Profit Margin 5% 12% 8% 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, Management Estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Copper Iron Ore
Zinc Tin
Lead Aluminum
International Commodity Relative
Prices Movement
Source: Indexmundi, Alt-R Team
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
JPY/$ PKR/$
Currency ChangeRelative to USD

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
Automotive
Source: Bloomberg, Alt-R team
Valuation
Valuation Parameters
Cost of Equity 13.50%
RiskFree Rate 7.50%
Beta 1.00
RiskPremium 6.00%
Growth 2.00%
We have developed our investment thesis on Loads with ‘Caution’ rating
and recommend short-term trading strategy to be followed as the
company’s profitability have been quite volatile in the past. We have used
discounted cash flow (Free Cash Flow to Firm) methodology to derive the
intrinsic value of Loads Limited. The following assumptions have been
used to arriveatthe intrinsic valueunder different scenarios:
Best Case
FY16 (F) FY17 (F) FY18 (F) FY19 (F) FY20 (F)
InflationRate* 4.00% 4.35% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
Growth in Vehicle Sales** 23% 25% 25% 15% 9%
EBITDA*(1-tax rate) 283 437 605 735 840
Add: Dep*(taxrate) 17 20 29 35 35
Less: Capex 136 364 259 90 81
FCFF 164 93 375 680 793
Terminal value 6,896
DiscountedFCFF 4,530
FCFF/share 36.24
The Intrinsic Value calculated under ‘Best Case’ is based upon the growth
rates assumed by the management of Loads Limited.
The Intrinsic Value calculated under ‘Base Case’ is based upon the average
historical growth rates from FY12-FY15.
*Selling prices and Input costs are expected to increase at inflationary rate
**Growth in Vehicle Sales pertains to total growth in Cars, LCV, and HCV.
Source: Alt-R team
Base Case
InflationRate* 4.00% 4.35% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
Growth in Vehicle Sales** 7% 6% 13% 17% 12%
EBITDA*(1-tax rate) 243 330 414 506 585
Add: Dep*(tax rate) 17 20 29 35 35
Less:Capex 136 364 259 90 81
FCFF 124 (14) 184 451 539
FCFF/share 23.79
Intrinsic Value underdifferent Scenarios
Best Case 36.24
Base Case 23.79
Worst Case 18.55
Source: Alt-R team
Valuation Details
*Selling prices and Input costs are expected to increase at inflationary rate.
**Growth in Vehicle Sales pertains to total growth in Cars, LCV, and HCV.
Source: Alt-R team

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Loads Limited - IPO
P/E Valuations
Based on the ‘Best Case’ as assumed by the Loads Limited management
and Floor Price of PKR 15, we expect Loads Limited to trade at a discount
of 47.9% at the floor price of PKR15/sh post IPO as the Forward P/E
calculates to be 5.97x against the average P/E of 11.46x, based on
weighted average P/E of Peer companies namely Agriauto and Thal
Limited.
Valuation Risk
As the future is uncertain, valuations are subject to uncertainty. The risk
that can affect our valuation of Loads Limited are any changes in spending
pattern of consumers, income per capita, government policies in respect
of automotive industry or related industry, imports of cars, international
commodity prices, and assumptions undertaken in this study. Further,
valuations are also subject to business risk, risk of physical damage,
foreign exchange risk, raw material supply risk, price risk, operational risk,
competitor risk, risk of technological obsolescence, concentration risk,
diversification risk,regulatory risk and capital marketrisk.
Automotive
Worst Case
InflationRate* 4.00% 4.35% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
Growth in Avg Selling Price** 4.00% 3.00% 4.50% 6.00% 6.50%
Growth in Vehicle Sales*** 7% -3% 9% 18% 11%
EBITDA*(1-tax rate) 243 275 319 405 479
Add: Dep*(tax rate) 17 20 29 35 35
Less: Capex 136 364 259 90 81
FCFF 124 (69) 90 351 433
FCFF/share 18.55
*Input costs are expected to increase at inflationary rate.
**Selling prices are expected to increase at lower pace than inflationary rate.
***Growth in Vehicle Sales pertains to total growth in Cars, LCV, and HCV.
Source: Alt-R team
Ticker Price** P/E EPS DY***
AGIL 201.69 11.99 16.82 8.9%
THALL 304.77 11.33 26.89 7.4%
Loads Limited 15.00 5.97* 2.69 0%*
*DY and forward P/E calculated at PKR 15.00 per share
**Last 90 days average price is used (starting from June 02,
2016 to August 04, 2016) – Source: PSX
***DY for AGIL and THALL are calculated based on avg price
in FY16.
Source: Loads Prospectus, FT Markets, Alt-R team
PeerComparisonThe Intrinsic Value calculated under ‘Worst Case’ is based upon the
average historical growth rates for vehicle sales lowered by 10-15%.
Further, selling price are also expected to rise at lower pace than inflation
rate.

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
PKR million FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Revenue 1,714 2,071 2,462 2,352 3,333 4,035 5,318 7,054 8,598 9,948
COGS (1,355)(1,742)(2,133)(2,044)(2,838) (3,478)(4,579)(6,067)(7,396)(8,561)
Gross profit 358 329 329 308 494 557 739 988 1,202 1,387
Operating Profit 288 245 224 195 360 413 574 783 960 1,119
Financial Charges (52) (56) (61) (71) (86) (105) (115) (117) (126) (129)
Profit Before Tax 236 212 204 177 322 258 455 650 807 955
Profit after Tax 202 166 103 135 211 175 314 455 565 668
EPS – 75mn shares 0.99 2.69 2.22 1.37 1.80 2.81 2.34
EPS – 125mn shares 1.76 2.54 3.66 4.53 5.35
PKR million FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Non Current Asset 553 583 571 614 829 946 1,290 1,360 1,340 1,313
Current Asset 634 895 1,183 1,242 1,867 2,166 2,967 3,454 4,127 4,894
Total Asset 1,187 1,478 1,754 1,856 2,696 3,112 4,257 4,814 5,467 6,207
Total Equity 823 1,001 1,100 1,230 1,440 1,627 2,644 3,099 3,664 4,332
Long Term Liabilities 7 8 54 52 103 91 85 79 73 67
Current Liabilities 357 470 600 574 1,154 1,394 1,528 1,636 1,731 1,808
Total Liab& Equity 1,187 1,478 1,754 1,856 2,696 3,112 4,257 4,814 5,467 6,207
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, Management Estimates, Alt-R Team
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Financial Ratios
Financial Highlights
Loads Limited - IPO
Source: Loads Limited prospectus,Management Estimates, Alt-R Team
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Profitability Ratios(%)
Gross Margin 20.9 15.9 13.4 13.1 14.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9
Operating Margin 16.8 11.8 9.1 8.3 10.8 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.2
Net Margin 11.8 8.0 4.2 5.7 6.3 4.3 5.9 6.4 6.6 6.7
ROE 24.5 16.6 9.3 11.0 14.7 10.8 11.9 14.7 15.4 15.4
ROA 17.0 11.3 5.9 7.3 7.8 5.6 7.4 9.5 10.3 10.8
Liquidity Ratios
Quick Ratio (x) 0.42 0.63 0.81 0.93 0.76 0.69 0.98 0.98 1.12 1.33
Current Ratio (x) 1.78 1.91 1.97 2.17 1.62 1.55 1.94 2.11 2.38 2.71
NWC (in millions) 277 425 582 668 713 772 1,439 1,818 2,396 3,086
Activity Ratios
Accounts Receivable Days 14 16 17 19 25 29 21 20 18 16
Inventory Days 127 122 115 120 121 121 112 106 103 101
Creditor Days 34 28 29 19 21 19 25 26 26 26
Operating Cycle Days 108 110 103 120 125 131 108 100 95 91
Asset TurnoverRatio(x) 1.44 1.40 1.40 1.27 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.47 1.57 1.60
Leverage Ratios
Debt ratio (%) 31% 32% 37% 34% 47% 48% 38% 36% 33% 30%
L-TDebt to TC (%) 1% 1% 5% 4% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Debt to equity 0.44 0.48 0.60 0.51 0.87 0.91 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.43
Times interest earn 5.51 4.36 3.71 2.75 4.21 3.92 5.00 6.70 7.63 8.69
Cash Flow Adequacy 0.49 (0.09) 0.01 0.20 (0.45) (0.55) 0.26 (0.02) 2.05 4.23
Source: Loads Limited prospectus, Management Estimates, Alt-R Team
Automotive

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Loads Limited IPO to Raise PKR 750 Million for Expansion

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