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DECARBONIZING ENERGY: LIGHTNING TALKS
Ranjit Deshmukh, University Of California Santa Barbara
Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
MOTIVATION
India is the third largest greenhouse gas emitter
(6% of annual global GHG emissions in 2016)
One-third of these emissions were from coal-
based electricity
Per capita emissions and energy use is low;
suggests massive potential for growth
Rapid decline in wind, solar PV, and battery
storage costs provide clean alternatives
Wind
Solar PV
400-500 GW by 2030175 GW by 2022
India clean electricity goals
RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND METHODS
• What targets for wind and solar capacity have the
lowest associated integration costs?
• Will these targets significantly offset the need to
build fossil fuel generation capacity?
• What additional measures can we take to mitigate
VRE integration costs
Scenarios
• 3 VRE targets: 200 GW, 400 GW, 600 GW
• 5 mixes: 100% wind - 0% solar PV to 100% solar
PV – 0% wind in 25% increments
• Various technical, economic, and policy scenarios
Compared costs and emissions for VRE scenarios
with corresponding scenario with no VRE capacity
MODELING FRAMEWORK
VRE: Variable Renewable Energy
KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 1:
Abundant wind and solar resources exist
in India.
KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 2:
Capacity value of VRE is low
Even large wind and solar
capacities displace only a small
fraction of fossil fuel generation
requirements
KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 2:
Capacity value of VRE is low
Even large wind and solar
capacities displace only a small
fraction of fossil fuel generation
requirements
KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 3:
Optimal shares of wind and
solar in India’s 2030 low carbon
electricity system are either
balanced or majority-wind
mixes; not solar-majority mix
Comparison of costs for
mitigating carbon emissions
KEY INSIGHTS
Comparison of costs for
mitigating carbon emissions
Insight 4:
Battery storage can provide
peak capacity but is cost-optimal
only if costs fall to the low end
of cost forecasts
CONCLUSIONS
• A “balanced” or “more-wind” capacity mix is cheapest for high VRE targets; suggests
revisiting India’s present solar-majority targets.
• India’s VRE resources have low capacity value and are likely to not displace much of fossil-
fuel capacity requirements
• Low cost battery storage could be a cost-effective alternative to fossil-fuel peaking
capacity. Demand response opportunities should be explored

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Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System

  • 1. DECARBONIZING ENERGY: LIGHTNING TALKS Ranjit Deshmukh, University Of California Santa Barbara Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
  • 2. MOTIVATION India is the third largest greenhouse gas emitter (6% of annual global GHG emissions in 2016) One-third of these emissions were from coal- based electricity Per capita emissions and energy use is low; suggests massive potential for growth Rapid decline in wind, solar PV, and battery storage costs provide clean alternatives Wind Solar PV 400-500 GW by 2030175 GW by 2022 India clean electricity goals
  • 3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND METHODS • What targets for wind and solar capacity have the lowest associated integration costs? • Will these targets significantly offset the need to build fossil fuel generation capacity? • What additional measures can we take to mitigate VRE integration costs Scenarios • 3 VRE targets: 200 GW, 400 GW, 600 GW • 5 mixes: 100% wind - 0% solar PV to 100% solar PV – 0% wind in 25% increments • Various technical, economic, and policy scenarios Compared costs and emissions for VRE scenarios with corresponding scenario with no VRE capacity MODELING FRAMEWORK VRE: Variable Renewable Energy
  • 4. KEY INSIGHTS Insight 1: Abundant wind and solar resources exist in India.
  • 5. KEY INSIGHTS Insight 2: Capacity value of VRE is low Even large wind and solar capacities displace only a small fraction of fossil fuel generation requirements
  • 6. KEY INSIGHTS Insight 2: Capacity value of VRE is low Even large wind and solar capacities displace only a small fraction of fossil fuel generation requirements
  • 7. KEY INSIGHTS Insight 3: Optimal shares of wind and solar in India’s 2030 low carbon electricity system are either balanced or majority-wind mixes; not solar-majority mix Comparison of costs for mitigating carbon emissions
  • 8. KEY INSIGHTS Comparison of costs for mitigating carbon emissions Insight 4: Battery storage can provide peak capacity but is cost-optimal only if costs fall to the low end of cost forecasts
  • 9. CONCLUSIONS • A “balanced” or “more-wind” capacity mix is cheapest for high VRE targets; suggests revisiting India’s present solar-majority targets. • India’s VRE resources have low capacity value and are likely to not displace much of fossil- fuel capacity requirements • Low cost battery storage could be a cost-effective alternative to fossil-fuel peaking capacity. Demand response opportunities should be explored