By Ranjit Deshmukh 2020 #Infra4Dev Conference: Decarbonizing Infrastructure www.worldbank.org/infra4dev2

1. DECARBONIZING ENERGY: LIGHTNING TALKS
Ranjit Deshmukh, University Of California Santa Barbara
Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System

2. MOTIVATION
India is the third largest greenhouse gas emitter
(6% of annual global GHG emissions in 2016)
One-third of these emissions were from coal-
based electricity
Per capita emissions and energy use is low;
suggests massive potential for growth
Rapid decline in wind, solar PV, and battery
storage costs provide clean alternatives
Wind
Solar PV
400-500 GW by 2030175 GW by 2022
India clean electricity goals

3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND METHODS
• What targets for wind and solar capacity have the
lowest associated integration costs?
• Will these targets significantly offset the need to
build fossil fuel generation capacity?
• What additional measures can we take to mitigate
VRE integration costs
Scenarios
• 3 VRE targets: 200 GW, 400 GW, 600 GW
• 5 mixes: 100% wind - 0% solar PV to 100% solar
PV – 0% wind in 25% increments
• Various technical, economic, and policy scenarios
Compared costs and emissions for VRE scenarios
with corresponding scenario with no VRE capacity
MODELING FRAMEWORK
VRE: Variable Renewable Energy

4. KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 1:
Abundant wind and solar resources exist
in India.

5. KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 2:
Capacity value of VRE is low
Even large wind and solar
capacities displace only a small
fraction of fossil fuel generation
requirements

6. KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 2:
Capacity value of VRE is low
Even large wind and solar
capacities displace only a small
fraction of fossil fuel generation
requirements

7. KEY INSIGHTS
Insight 3:
Optimal shares of wind and
solar in India’s 2030 low carbon
electricity system are either
balanced or majority-wind
mixes; not solar-majority mix
Comparison of costs for
mitigating carbon emissions

8. KEY INSIGHTS
Comparison of costs for
mitigating carbon emissions
Insight 4:
Battery storage can provide
peak capacity but is cost-optimal
only if costs fall to the low end
of cost forecasts

9. CONCLUSIONS
• A “balanced” or “more-wind” capacity mix is cheapest for high VRE targets; suggests
revisiting India’s present solar-majority targets.
• India’s VRE resources have low capacity value and are likely to not displace much of fossil-
fuel capacity requirements
• Low cost battery storage could be a cost-effective alternative to fossil-fuel peaking
capacity. Demand response opportunities should be explored