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Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
- 1. Decarbonizing ENERGY: lighting Talks Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks University of Warsaw and Centre for Climate and Energy analysis Cost of TransiTion from The Workers’ PersPecTive
- 2. Intagrated Assessment Models 1.5C scenario: phase-out of coal in OECD by 2040s 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 EJ/year IMAGE SSP1 OECD MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 OECD REMIND-MAGPIE SSP5 OECD IMAGE SSP1 World MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 World REMIND-MAGPIE SSP5 World
- 3. Age and education of workers 20% 20% 48% 43% 31% 32% 2% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Minning Polish Economy 60+ 45-59 30-44 15-29 16% 33% 43% 39% 39% 25% 2% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Minning Polish Economy Primary Vocational Secondary Tertiary Source: Statistics Poland, pooled BAEL 2015-2017
- 4. Why transition is costly? • Given education, experience and education of miners, mining sector gives them the highest payoff from all sectors in the economy. • Loosing a job implies that they need to move to their second-best choice • If they move to, say, manufacturing, on average they are less productive than those who worked in manufacturing before
- 5. Wage distribution: mining vs. manufacturing Source: computation based on Polish Structure of Earnings Survey 2014
- 6. Role of policy makers • Provide guidance: • signal phase-out of coal early to manage expectations and prevent invesment with no future • Ensure that young workers leave mining early so they acquire skills in growing and not declining sectors • Acknowledge that transition to other sectors involve costs on the side of workers and negotiate compensation.
- 7. acknowledgement The research summarized in this presentation received funding from Project LIFE16 GIC/PL/000031 co-financed from EU funds from the LIFE program and from the funds of the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management, SONATA grant by the National Science Centre, Poland, registration number 2016/21/D/HS4/02795 and from the European Union Horizon2020 under Grant Agreement No 642260