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Decarbonizing Transport: Lightning Talks
Teevrat Garg, UC San Diego
(w/ Sam Asher + Paul Novosad)
Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastructure
Road Infrastructure Poised to Expand Dramatically
• 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels).
• 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries.
• Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests.
• Forests are key to decarbonization (~10-15% of GHG emissions).
• The effect of roads on forest cover is theoretically ambiguous:
• Changes in relative returns to agriculture (-/+)
• Lower transportation costs for timber (-)
• Changes in fuel use (-/+)
• Causal estimation is difficult because of endogenous placement of roads.
Context and Research Design
• Rural Roads: India’s PMGSY Program
• Roads allocated to villages based on
population cutoffs.
• Regression discontinuity design.
• Highways: Expansion of 2 main highway
networks:
• Golden Quadrilateral: 80% (95%)
completed by 2004 (2006).
• North-South/East-West Corridors: delayed
onset - 10% completed by 2005.
• Difference-in-Differences design.
Rural Roads Have No Effect on Forest Cover.1.2.3.4.5
NewRoad
−200 −100 0 100 200
Population Minus Threshold
.2.3.4.5.6
LogForestCover
−200 −100 0 100 200
Population Minus Threshold
Highways Reduce Forest Cover by 17% on average
−.5
0
.5
LogForest
0 50 100 150 200 250
Distance from GQ (km)
2000
2001−2004
2005−2008
2009−2012
−.2
0
.2
.4
LogForest
0 50 100 150 200 250
Distance from NS−EW (km)
2000
2001−2004
2005−2008
2009−2012
Golden Quadrilateral North-South, East-West Corridor
Effects of Highways Driven by Forest Industry
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
−.2
0
.2
.4
.6
CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Logging Firms Wood-using Firms
Conclusion
• 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels).
• 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries.
• Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests.
• The effects of roads are heterogenous:
• Rural roads have no effect on forest cover despite leading to exits from
agriculture and improvements in educational outcomes.
• Highways result in expansion of forest cover industries and reduce forest cover.
• SCC = ~25% of fiscal cost, >100% if deforestation is additional.
• Must account for ecological cost as well as fiscal cost.

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Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastructure

  • 1. Decarbonizing Transport: Lightning Talks Teevrat Garg, UC San Diego (w/ Sam Asher + Paul Novosad) Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastructure
  • 2. Road Infrastructure Poised to Expand Dramatically • 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels). • 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries. • Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests. • Forests are key to decarbonization (~10-15% of GHG emissions). • The effect of roads on forest cover is theoretically ambiguous: • Changes in relative returns to agriculture (-/+) • Lower transportation costs for timber (-) • Changes in fuel use (-/+) • Causal estimation is difficult because of endogenous placement of roads.
  • 3. Context and Research Design • Rural Roads: India’s PMGSY Program • Roads allocated to villages based on population cutoffs. • Regression discontinuity design. • Highways: Expansion of 2 main highway networks: • Golden Quadrilateral: 80% (95%) completed by 2004 (2006). • North-South/East-West Corridors: delayed onset - 10% completed by 2005. • Difference-in-Differences design.
  • 4. Rural Roads Have No Effect on Forest Cover.1.2.3.4.5 NewRoad −200 −100 0 100 200 Population Minus Threshold .2.3.4.5.6 LogForestCover −200 −100 0 100 200 Population Minus Threshold
  • 5. Highways Reduce Forest Cover by 17% on average −.5 0 .5 LogForest 0 50 100 150 200 250 Distance from GQ (km) 2000 2001−2004 2005−2008 2009−2012 −.2 0 .2 .4 LogForest 0 50 100 150 200 250 Distance from NS−EW (km) 2000 2001−2004 2005−2008 2009−2012 Golden Quadrilateral North-South, East-West Corridor
  • 6. Effects of Highways Driven by Forest Industry 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year −.2 0 .2 .4 .6 CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Logging Firms Wood-using Firms
  • 7. Conclusion • 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels). • 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries. • Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests. • The effects of roads are heterogenous: • Rural roads have no effect on forest cover despite leading to exits from agriculture and improvements in educational outcomes. • Highways result in expansion of forest cover industries and reduce forest cover. • SCC = ~25% of fiscal cost, >100% if deforestation is additional. • Must account for ecological cost as well as fiscal cost.

Editor's Notes

  1. Talk about the link between forests and decarbonization.
  2. Ecological costs are present discounted values so directly comparable to the NPV of fiscal costs. Talk about external validity!!