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Decarbonizing Transport: lightNing Talks
Fan Zhang, world Bank
Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in China
Motivation
Source: IEA, EAFO
• China has the largest EV
market in the world
• The study provides the first
empirical evidence on the
effectiveness of various
incentive policies for China’s
EV market
Incentive Policies
• Consumer subsidies
• Exemption from driving restrictions
• Green plate policy
• Charging infrastructure
Incentive Policies
Charging Ports per million Residents by City
Data
• Quarterly EV sales by city and vehicle trim from 2015 to 2018,
including detailed vehicle attributes by trim
• Charging stations information including opening date, location, and
the number of charging ports
• Consumer subsidies and other policies aimed at promoting consumer
adoption of EVs
Identification Strategy
• Instrumental variable method
• Central subsidies and battery capacity as IVs for vehicle price
• Lagged installed EV base by institutional buyers as IV for the charging stations
• City-border regression design
• cluster-time fixed effects to control for time-varying local unobservable
• cluster-brand-year fixed effects control for brand-specific demand shocks
Regression Results
Simulation results
conclusions
• Consumer subsidies from central and local explain over half of the EVs
sold during 2015-2018.
• Investment on charging infrastructure is about four times as cost-
effective in promoting EV sales as consumer subsidies.
• Green plate policy is very cost-effective in promoting EVs and
increased EV sales by 18% during 2016-2018

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Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in China

  • 1. Decarbonizing Transport: lightNing Talks Fan Zhang, world Bank Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in China
  • 2. Motivation Source: IEA, EAFO • China has the largest EV market in the world • The study provides the first empirical evidence on the effectiveness of various incentive policies for China’s EV market
  • 3. Incentive Policies • Consumer subsidies • Exemption from driving restrictions • Green plate policy • Charging infrastructure
  • 4. Incentive Policies Charging Ports per million Residents by City
  • 5. Data • Quarterly EV sales by city and vehicle trim from 2015 to 2018, including detailed vehicle attributes by trim • Charging stations information including opening date, location, and the number of charging ports • Consumer subsidies and other policies aimed at promoting consumer adoption of EVs
  • 6. Identification Strategy • Instrumental variable method • Central subsidies and battery capacity as IVs for vehicle price • Lagged installed EV base by institutional buyers as IV for the charging stations • City-border regression design • cluster-time fixed effects to control for time-varying local unobservable • cluster-brand-year fixed effects control for brand-specific demand shocks
  • 9. conclusions • Consumer subsidies from central and local explain over half of the EVs sold during 2015-2018. • Investment on charging infrastructure is about four times as cost- effective in promoting EV sales as consumer subsidies. • Green plate policy is very cost-effective in promoting EVs and increased EV sales by 18% during 2016-2018