SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 27
Download to read offline
Michael Grubb
Professor of Energy and Climate
Change
University College London
To begin at the end ….
Infrastructuretotalcost
(Energy,transport,comms)
Greenhouse gas and other environmental impacts
Global
energy
costs
Annual
global
emissions
Time
‘Green’ futures
•High-innovation system
•Increasingly integrated across
sectors
•Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’
•Biomass and electricity in
transport
•High capital costs….
•……but low operating costs
‘Brown’ futures
• Continued dependence on fossil fuels
• Unconventional and synthetic oil in
transport
• Low capital costs…
•…but higher operating costs
• … and a host of environmental issues
beyond carbon
PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”,
Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide
‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca
No wind favours those who don't know where they are going
Diverging paths ….
Topics for this talk:
• Are we crossing the ridge?
• What are the costs?
• Policy foundations?
• … and Covid?
We are
here
https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/s-curve-power-report/
Q: “[is it] exponential, stupid!?”
Notes: Comparison of linear extrapolation of historic trend in growth of renewables’ share of electricity generation (2008-2019 average rate), with exponential
growth (7% annual increase), and with 2030 and 2050 benchmarks derived from Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2020), Climate Ambition Benchmarks (CAB) (Climate
Works Foundation et al., 2019), and ‘Our Paris-consistent benchmark’, based on the median of relevant scenarios from Huppmann et al (2018)
Renewables in global electricity
Hydro % contribution stable,
New Renewables’ only 7% of global electricity generation
Notes: Comparison of linear extrapolation of historic trend in growth of renewables’ share of electricity generation (2008-2019 average rate), with exponential
growth (7% annual increase), and with 2030 and 2050 benchmarks derived from Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2020), Climate Ambition Benchmarks (CAB) (Climate
Works Foundation et al., 2019), and ‘Our Paris-consistent benchmark’, based on the median of relevant scenarios from Huppmann et al (2018)
Renewables in global electricity Hydro % contribution stable,
New Renewables’ only 7% of global electricity generation
…. Growing how, and how fast?
`
Growth rates of wind+PV – plausible tracks to global transitions
… as measured 2010-2019,
compared to S-curve dynamic
2010-2050,
defined to median end-point from
SR1.5 model database
On track with 30%/year emergence growth rate, which
also hits 2030 median benchmark but not those of more
renewables-dominated scenarios
Source: Grubb, Drummond and Hughues (2020), The Shape and Pace of Change in the Electricity Transition: Sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress, We Mean Business, Oct 2020
Note the huge change 2020 – 2030
especially under 30 – 35%/yr
emergence growth rates
Notes: IRENA estimates of levelised cost of energy (grey) and cost data revealed by auctions and power purchase agreements (blue), for onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV.
Boxes show 5th to 95th percentile range. Lines show weighted averages. IRENA estimates of high and low range of new fossil fuel power generation shown in red. Data from IRENA
(2020b).
Major investment – but sustained momentum from dramatic cost
reductions
Onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV levelised cost of energy (grey) and cont
Notes: Historic data for 2000-2009 from IEA (2018), and for 2010-2019 from IEA (2020a).
But the trend of fossil fuel – carbon intensity – in conflict
Historic (2000-2019) and projected (2010-2050) CO2 intensity of global electricity
generation – linear and S-curve projections
Power: the cost of low carbon
pathways depends on timing and
demand management
Early investments
in renewables +
demand
management
Investments in fossil fuel generation +
stranded assets
3.0% of GDP per year
2.2% of
GDP per
year
Investments in fossil fuel generation +
stranded assets
3.0% of GDP per year
urce: World Bank (2019), ‘Beyond the Gap’
Contrasting indicators point to trend transition risk?
Traffic light summary (Executive Summary version)
System element Indicator Current (2019) status
/decadal trend (2010-2019)
Paris-consistent?
CO2 emissions and technology deployment
Power system Total CO2 emissions +10%
CO2 intensity (per kWh) -12%
Wind Generation growth rate 17%/year average growth
Solar Generation growth rate 41%/year average growth
Wind and solar PV Combined share of total
generation
Increase from 2% to 8%
Unabated fossil fuels Share of total generation 5.2 percentage point decline
Electricity demand Demand growth substantially outpacing non-fossil fuel
growth and mostly not displacing other carbon-intensive
energy
Costs and finance
Onshore wind Global weighted average
cost (auctions/PPAs)
-28%
Offshore wind Levelized cost of energy -29%
Solar PV Global weighted average
cost (auctions/PPAs)
-69%
All renewables Generation investment –
share of renewables
~65%
What of Transport – will projections be realised?
Mostly vehicles
10 million passenger EVs on the road today, along with more
than 500,000 e-buses, almost 400,000 electric delivery vans
and trucks and 184 million electric mopeds, scooters and
bikes. Growth rate 40% per year
Dramatic movements … `
• Most international vehicle manufacturers now producing or launching
lines of electric vehicles
• Costs sharply declining
• Growing number of countries
moving to set phase-out date for
sale of traditional vehicles
• UK set to announce tomorrow -
(20 Nov) bringing forward its ICE
phase-out date from 2040 to 2030
Urban transport: Land use planning lowers
investment needs by 20 percent and reduces
emissions
0.37% of GDP
per year
0.47% of GDP per year
Dense cities
&
public transit
Sprawl & individual mobility
Shared Micromobility Trips Grew by 62%
in 2019
The number of micromobility trips grew
62% from 2018 to 2019 due to the large
increase in scooter trips. Shared
micromobility refers to small fleets of
fully or partially human-powered vehicles
including bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters.
Trips on scooters more than doubled from
2018 to 2019 while bike trips increased by 3%
and e-bike trips increased 54%. Data collection
by the National Association of City
Transportation Officials (NACTO) began in 2010
and included only bike trips until 2018.
Note: Data includes systems with
over 150 bikes or scooters and
includes only data reported by
large cities. Data does not include
private or closed campus systems
like those operating on university
campuses. For more detail, see
the source report.
Source: National Association of
City Transportation Officials
(NACTO), Shared Micromobility in
the U.S.: 2019, Summer 2020.
With the right policies, investments of 4.5 percent
of GDP will enable LMICs to achieve the infrastructure-related SDGs
and stay on track to full decarbonization by the second half of
the century
Source: World Bank (2019), ‘Beyond the Gap’
Global
energy
costs
Annual
global
emissions
Time
‘Green’ futures
•High-innovation system
•Increasingly integrated across
sectors
•Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’
•Biomass and electricity in
transport
•High capital costs….
•……but low operating costs
‘Brown’ futures
• Continued dependence on fossil fuels
• Unconventional and synthetic oil in
transport
• Low capital costs…
•…but higher operating costs
• … and a host of environmental issues
beyond carbon
PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”,
Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide
‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca
No wind favours those who don't know where they are going
Diverging paths ….
Topics for this talk:
• Are we crossing the ridge?
• What are the costs?
• Policy Foundations?
• … and Covid?
We are
here
with different characteristics and theoretical foundations, apply at different scales
Three Domains of decision-processes
Improved
efficiency and
service
New technology
waves
1.
Satisficing
Habits, myopia/present-bias, risk
aversion, inattention to incidental
/ intangible costs & opportunities,
individual diversity &
experimentation, malleable
preferences; network effects
Behavioural
and
organisational
economics
DOMAIN
Theoretical
foundations
Characteristics
S
O
C
I
A
L
S
C
A
L
E
T
I
M
E
H
O
R
I
Z
O
N
2.
Optimising
Economic optimisation based on
relative prices,
‘representative agents’
with ‘rational expectations’, stable
preferences and tech trends
Neoclassical
and welfare
economics
3.
Transform
-ing
Structural, technological,
institutional and behavioural
change, typically from
strategising, innovation,
infrastructure investment
Evolutionary
and
institutional
economics
New markets,
vs
Incumbents
Source: Planetary Economics
The ‘Dark Matter of macroeconomic growth’
• Macro-economic research points to two key areas of economic growth
in addition to resource & capital accumulation:
– Improving efficiency of many economic actors and structures throughout the
economic system
– Infrastructure, innovation and education
• ie. First and Third Domain processes are recognised as important for
macroeconomic development. Yet these remain
– largely absent in global (or national) modelling
– poorly charted in policy
H
M
L
H Highest relevance
M Medium relevance
L Lowest relevance
Satisfice
Transform
Optimise
Domain
Standards &
Engagement
Markets &
Prices
Strategic
Investmen
t
‘Smarter’
individual &
corporate
choices
Cleaner
products &
processes
Innovation &
infrastructure
1 2 3
L/M
H
L/M
L
M
H
Policy pillars
“The EU 3-targets
approach is
madness.. “
“Other policies such
as feed-in tariffs,
industry regulation
and subsidies, are
far less economically
preferable than
carbon pricing to
reduce emissions… “
(OECD, 2013)
I beg to differ …
Ideal policy comprises a package …
Key is to match the best instrument to the
respective domain of decision-making
Global
energy
costs
Annual
global
emissions
Time
‘Green’ futures
•High-innovation system
•Increasingly integrated across
sectors
•Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’
•Biomass and electricity in
transport
•High capital costs….
•……but low operating costs
‘Brown’ futures
• Continued dependence on fossil fuels
• Unconventional and synthetic oil in
transport
• Low capital costs…
•…but higher operating costs
• … and a host of environmental issues
beyond carbon
PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”,
Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide
‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca
No wind favours those who don't know where they are going
Diverging paths ….
Topics for this talk:
• Are we crossing the ridge?
• What are the costs?
• Policy foundations?
• … and Covid?
We are
here
Emerging post-COVID stimulus – mostly in the wrong direction
… though in global volume, much
may hinge on future of US and
Chinese stimulus developments ..
Source: Vivid
Economics,
Green Stimulus
Index
Covid
• A huge macroeconomic shock
• A dramatic episode of ‘Schumpeterian Destruction’
• – can it be made a creative one?
• Keys will be:
– A clear and compelling narrative of the opportunities (and the risks)
– International financial cooperation (eg. underwriting)
– Synthesis between financial and energy/transport policies – Central Banks
need to care about how the money is used
– Links between the lending, infrastructure contracts, and environmental
revenue opportunities to underwrite 10-20 year payments
(eg. carbon pricing, road pricing)
25
Sector policy still crucial to accelerating decarbonisation
 `To overcome obstacles in international diffusion
‒ Country risk particularly in some developing countries create high cost of capital
‒ Some State-Owned Enterprises particularly in Asia still funding coal and sometimes impeding
renewables
‒ Challenges may be exacerbated by aftermath of Covid (impact on debt and attention to sectoral
reform)
 To reform power market structures appropriate to ‘free to run’, variable output power sources
 To provide the infrastructure of interconnection and electric vehicle charging
 To help incumbent industries adjust
 To promote both efficient use, and electrification of carbon-intensive end-uses
Global
energy
costs
Annual
global
emissions
Time
‘Green’ futures
•High-innovation system
•Increasingly integrated across
sectors
•Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’
•Biomass and electricity in
transport
•High capital costs….
•……but low operating costs
‘Brown’ futures
• Continued dependence on fossil fuels
• Unconventional and synthetic oil in
transport
• Low capital costs…
•…but higher operating costs
• … and a host of environmental issues
beyond carbon
PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”,
Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide
‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca
No wind favours those who don't know where they are going
Diverging paths ….
We are
here
“.. Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to
way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and
I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”
Robert Frost
Michael Grubb
Professor of Energy and Climate
Change
University College London

More Related Content

What's hot

The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sector
The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sectorThe role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sector
The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sectorSustainableEnergyAut
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity SystemLightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity SystemWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunications
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunicationsEnergy in emerging telecoms telecommunications
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunicationsVISCAR INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY
 
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter Erickson
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter EricksonLow carbon development in global cities by Peter Erickson
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter EricksonCape Town Partnership
 
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...Alliance To Save Energy
 
Benjamin Sovacool "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...
Benjamin Sovacool  "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...Benjamin Sovacool  "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...
Benjamin Sovacool "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...Energy Cultures 2 Janet Stephenson
 
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”Energy Cultures 2 Janet Stephenson
 
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the road
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the roadGetting next generation mobility technologies on the road
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the roadReedExhibitionsMiddl
 
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...New York Public Transit Association
 
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector SustainableEnergyAut
 
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMDEnergy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMDUniversity of Southern California
 
Vector 10-10-2016 30
Vector  10-10-2016  30Vector  10-10-2016  30
Vector 10-10-2016 30Roger Dixon
 
De-risking Renewable Energy Investments
De-risking Renewable Energy InvestmentsDe-risking Renewable Energy Investments
De-risking Renewable Energy InvestmentsLászló Árvai
 
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009CreateWV
 
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean AirWorld Resources Institute (WRI)
 

What's hot (20)

The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sector
The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sectorThe role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sector
The role of the regulator in the transformation of the electricity sector
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity SystemLightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System
 
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunications
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunicationsEnergy in emerging telecoms telecommunications
Energy in emerging telecoms telecommunications
 
Energy STEM LE Flyer
Energy STEM LE FlyerEnergy STEM LE Flyer
Energy STEM LE Flyer
 
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter Erickson
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter EricksonLow carbon development in global cities by Peter Erickson
Low carbon development in global cities by Peter Erickson
 
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...
Hank Courtright, EPRI: Realizing the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Car...
 
Solar Revolution
Solar  RevolutionSolar  Revolution
Solar Revolution
 
Benjamin Sovacool "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...
Benjamin Sovacool  "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...Benjamin Sovacool  "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...
Benjamin Sovacool "The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition: Implications and Insigh...
 
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”
Espen Moe “Renewable energy and the politics of grid-line expansion.”
 
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the road
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the roadGetting next generation mobility technologies on the road
Getting next generation mobility technologies on the road
 
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...
Taking the Subway to Copenhagen - How Transit is Essential to Global GHG Red...
 
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector
DPER’s perspective on the transformation of the electricity sector
 
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMDEnergy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD
Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD
 
Vector 10-10-2016 30
Vector  10-10-2016  30Vector  10-10-2016  30
Vector 10-10-2016 30
 
De-risking Renewable Energy Investments
De-risking Renewable Energy InvestmentsDe-risking Renewable Energy Investments
De-risking Renewable Energy Investments
 
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009
CreateWV Kamenetz Keynote 2009
 
Future Grid Forum
Future Grid ForumFuture Grid Forum
Future Grid Forum
 
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air
#BuildBackBetter Webinar: Three Transformations for Clean Air
 
P5_Vans
P5_VansP5_Vans
P5_Vans
 
OGF Panel Presentation
OGF Panel PresentationOGF Panel Presentation
OGF Panel Presentation
 

Similar to Michael Grubb: 2020 #Infra4dev Conference Keynote presentation

The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility (BC3 Summer ...
The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility  (BC3 Summer ...The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility  (BC3 Summer ...
The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility (BC3 Summer ...BC3 - Basque Center for Climate Change
 
Energy efficiency technologies
Energy efficiency technologiesEnergy efficiency technologies
Energy efficiency technologiesTeale Asia
 
Ab climate change outline_v2
Ab climate change outline_v2Ab climate change outline_v2
Ab climate change outline_v2velgot
 
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote PresentationOECD Environment
 
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022Energy for One World
 
The future of energy - global insights - 3 april 2018
The future of energy -  global insights - 3 april 2018The future of energy -  global insights - 3 april 2018
The future of energy - global insights - 3 april 2018Future Agenda
 
IT and OT: How the Internet of Things enables the convergence of IT & Energy
IT and OT:  How the Internet of  Things enables the  convergence of IT &  EnergyIT and OT:  How the Internet of  Things enables the  convergence of IT &  Energy
IT and OT: How the Internet of Things enables the convergence of IT & EnergySchneider Electric
 
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050Leonardo ENERGY
 
Waddesdon Club_Conference
Waddesdon Club_ConferenceWaddesdon Club_Conference
Waddesdon Club_ConferenceNadia Ameli
 
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...www.thiiink.com
 
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescan
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescanClean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescan
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescanmssarfraz1
 
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is On
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is OnBusiness and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is On
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is OnMichael Soron
 
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action - entso-e annual confer...
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action -  entso-e annual confer...Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action -  entso-e annual confer...
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action - entso-e annual confer...Marina Cubedo Vicén
 

Similar to Michael Grubb: 2020 #Infra4dev Conference Keynote presentation (20)

The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility (BC3 Summer ...
The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility  (BC3 Summer ...The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility  (BC3 Summer ...
The Paris meeting: the vision of an international power utility (BC3 Summer ...
 
Energy Transition(s): where are we?
Energy Transition(s): where are we?Energy Transition(s): where are we?
Energy Transition(s): where are we?
 
Energy efficiency technologies
Energy efficiency technologiesEnergy efficiency technologies
Energy efficiency technologies
 
Ab climate change outline_v2
Ab climate change outline_v2Ab climate change outline_v2
Ab climate change outline_v2
 
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation
2018 GGSD Forum - Opening Session - Keynote Presentation
 
Educause Live
Educause LiveEducause Live
Educause Live
 
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022
WEC World Energy Issues Monitor : Global Report 2022
 
The future of energy - global insights - 3 april 2018
The future of energy -  global insights - 3 april 2018The future of energy -  global insights - 3 april 2018
The future of energy - global insights - 3 april 2018
 
WEF Energy architecture_performance_index_2017
WEF Energy architecture_performance_index_2017WEF Energy architecture_performance_index_2017
WEF Energy architecture_performance_index_2017
 
IT and OT: How the Internet of Things enables the convergence of IT & Energy
IT and OT:  How the Internet of  Things enables the  convergence of IT &  EnergyIT and OT:  How the Internet of  Things enables the  convergence of IT &  Energy
IT and OT: How the Internet of Things enables the convergence of IT & Energy
 
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050
 
Sustainable transport - will it ever really count?
Sustainable transport - will it ever really count?Sustainable transport - will it ever really count?
Sustainable transport - will it ever really count?
 
Waddesdon Club_Conference
Waddesdon Club_ConferenceWaddesdon Club_Conference
Waddesdon Club_Conference
 
Infraestructura 2030
Infraestructura 2030Infraestructura 2030
Infraestructura 2030
 
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...
Expect the-unexpected cti-imperial " Yes Carbon Tracker forgot 10,000 billion...
 
Infrastructure to 2030 opportunities and challenges
Infrastructure to 2030 opportunities and challengesInfrastructure to 2030 opportunities and challenges
Infrastructure to 2030 opportunities and challenges
 
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescan
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescanClean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescan
Clean energy solutions_for_americas_cities__uscm_siemens_globescan
 
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is On
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is OnBusiness and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is On
Business and Sustainable Development - The Green Race is On
 
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action - entso-e annual confer...
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action -  entso-e annual confer...Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action -  entso-e annual confer...
Ben Voorhorst: presentation on global climate action - entso-e annual confer...
 
Innovation 2016
Innovation 2016Innovation 2016
Innovation 2016
 

More from World Bank Infrastructure

Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-Hailing
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-HailingLightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-Hailing
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-HailingWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. Culture
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. CultureLightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. Culture
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. CultureWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and Restrictions
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and RestrictionsLightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and Restrictions
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and RestrictionsWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?World Bank Infrastructure
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ PerspectiveLightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ PerspectiveWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...World Bank Infrastructure
 
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory ChallengesUsing EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory ChallengesWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience
 Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience
Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French ExperienceWorld Bank Infrastructure
 
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?World Bank Infrastructure
 
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...World Bank Infrastructure
 

More from World Bank Infrastructure (20)

Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: Wither Urban T...
 
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Transport: The Role of El...
 
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...
Pathways to Decarbonization & Digital Innovation in Energy: Prospects for Hyd...
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-Hailing
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-HailingLightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-Hailing
Lightning Talk - Transport: Transit Reforms and Ride-Hailing
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. Culture
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. CultureLightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. Culture
Lightning Talk - Transport: Reinventing the Car: Technology vs. Culture
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and Restrictions
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and RestrictionsLightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and Restrictions
Lightning Talk - Transport: Lessons from Vehicle Taxation and Restrictions
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastruc...
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Overcoming Deadhead in the Trucking Industry Usin...
 
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...
Lightning Talk - Transport: Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Incentives in C...
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...
Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...
Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?
Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?
 
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ PerspectiveLightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective
 
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...
Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...
 
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory ChallengesUsing EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges
Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges
 
Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience
 Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience
Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience
 
The Future of Road Transport
The Future of Road TransportThe Future of Road Transport
The Future of Road Transport
 
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?
Infrastructure in the Digital Era: How Should Regulation Adapt?
 
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...
Developing Country Case Study: Retail Pricing and Efficient Deployment of Dis...
 
Future Design of Electricity Markets
 Future Design of Electricity Markets Future Design of Electricity Markets
Future Design of Electricity Markets
 

Recently uploaded

Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdf
Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdfCanadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdf
Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdfAndrew Griffith
 
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in Manicaland
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in ManicalandCyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in Manicaland
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in ManicalandBervenMavhima1
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 142024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14JSchaus & Associates
 
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRICCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRIAhmed Ali
 
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptx
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptxNSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptx
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptxDheerajKL1
 
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 Edition
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 EditionHadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 Edition
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 EditionHadleyWood Association
 
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agenda
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agendaCeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agenda
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agendaEnergy for One World
 
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...JSchaus & Associates
 
Importance of child education kurnool.docx
Importance of child education kurnool.docxImportance of child education kurnool.docx
Importance of child education kurnool.docxSERUDS INDIA
 
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024Energy for One World
 
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSES
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSESTHEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSES
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSESLouis Malaybalay
 
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobbyericdove88
 
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and Wildlife
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and WildlifeLivewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and Wildlife
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and WildlifeRandy Myers
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdf
Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdfCanadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdf
Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdf
 
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Serbia CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Serbia CAF.pdfPPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Serbia CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Serbia CAF.pdf
 
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in Manicaland
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in ManicalandCyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in Manicaland
Cyclone Idai Exhibition Final - Re-living Disaster in Manicaland
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 142024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisiton Regulations - Part 14
 
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRICCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI
CCFW_Launch slides by Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI
 
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptx
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptxNSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptx
NSFW QUhhvliyvyv;iyv;v;yifyfo7otudb75IZ.pptx
 
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 Edition
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 EditionHadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 Edition
Hadley Wood Newsletter - December 2023 Edition
 
Highland Hills Comprehensive Plan Public Meeting #1
Highland Hills Comprehensive Plan Public Meeting #1Highland Hills Comprehensive Plan Public Meeting #1
Highland Hills Comprehensive Plan Public Meeting #1
 
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - North Macedonia CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - North Macedonia CAF.pdfPPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - North Macedonia CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - North Macedonia CAF.pdf
 
Photo gallery - SIGMA-GIZ Academies on QM - Stage 1.pdf
Photo gallery - SIGMA-GIZ Academies on QM - Stage 1.pdfPhoto gallery - SIGMA-GIZ Academies on QM - Stage 1.pdf
Photo gallery - SIGMA-GIZ Academies on QM - Stage 1.pdf
 
No Elevators Day - Communications Guide 2024 - #UseTheStairs
No Elevators Day - Communications Guide 2024 - #UseTheStairsNo Elevators Day - Communications Guide 2024 - #UseTheStairs
No Elevators Day - Communications Guide 2024 - #UseTheStairs
 
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agenda
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agendaCeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agenda
CeraWeek 2024 - Executive conference agenda
 
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - CAF in Ukraine.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - CAF in Ukraine.pdfPPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - CAF in Ukraine.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 - CAF in Ukraine.pdf
 
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...
SPONSORED CONTENT - AGILE ATS - Recruiting Strategies Systems & Tactics For G...
 
Importance of child education kurnool.docx
Importance of child education kurnool.docxImportance of child education kurnool.docx
Importance of child education kurnool.docx
 
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024
CIA Annual Global Threat Assessment 2024
 
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSES
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSESTHEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSES
THEOLOGY SOCIAL JUSTICE - TYPHOON ULYSSES
 
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby
100 Community Place Signage for the main Lobby
 
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Bosnia Herzegovina CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Bosnia Herzegovina CAF.pdfPPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Bosnia Herzegovina CAF.pdf
PPT - SIGMA-GIZ Academies - Stage 1 -Bosnia Herzegovina CAF.pdf
 
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and Wildlife
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and WildlifeLivewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and Wildlife
Livewell Oxygen System Tested by Texas Parks and Wildlife
 

Michael Grubb: 2020 #Infra4dev Conference Keynote presentation

  • 1. Michael Grubb Professor of Energy and Climate Change University College London
  • 2. To begin at the end …. Infrastructuretotalcost (Energy,transport,comms) Greenhouse gas and other environmental impacts
  • 3. Global energy costs Annual global emissions Time ‘Green’ futures •High-innovation system •Increasingly integrated across sectors •Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’ •Biomass and electricity in transport •High capital costs…. •……but low operating costs ‘Brown’ futures • Continued dependence on fossil fuels • Unconventional and synthetic oil in transport • Low capital costs… •…but higher operating costs • … and a host of environmental issues beyond carbon PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”, Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide ‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca No wind favours those who don't know where they are going Diverging paths …. Topics for this talk: • Are we crossing the ridge? • What are the costs? • Policy foundations? • … and Covid? We are here
  • 5. Notes: Comparison of linear extrapolation of historic trend in growth of renewables’ share of electricity generation (2008-2019 average rate), with exponential growth (7% annual increase), and with 2030 and 2050 benchmarks derived from Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2020), Climate Ambition Benchmarks (CAB) (Climate Works Foundation et al., 2019), and ‘Our Paris-consistent benchmark’, based on the median of relevant scenarios from Huppmann et al (2018) Renewables in global electricity Hydro % contribution stable, New Renewables’ only 7% of global electricity generation
  • 6. Notes: Comparison of linear extrapolation of historic trend in growth of renewables’ share of electricity generation (2008-2019 average rate), with exponential growth (7% annual increase), and with 2030 and 2050 benchmarks derived from Climate Action Tracker (CAT, 2020), Climate Ambition Benchmarks (CAB) (Climate Works Foundation et al., 2019), and ‘Our Paris-consistent benchmark’, based on the median of relevant scenarios from Huppmann et al (2018) Renewables in global electricity Hydro % contribution stable, New Renewables’ only 7% of global electricity generation …. Growing how, and how fast?
  • 7. ` Growth rates of wind+PV – plausible tracks to global transitions … as measured 2010-2019, compared to S-curve dynamic 2010-2050, defined to median end-point from SR1.5 model database On track with 30%/year emergence growth rate, which also hits 2030 median benchmark but not those of more renewables-dominated scenarios Source: Grubb, Drummond and Hughues (2020), The Shape and Pace of Change in the Electricity Transition: Sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress, We Mean Business, Oct 2020 Note the huge change 2020 – 2030 especially under 30 – 35%/yr emergence growth rates
  • 8. Notes: IRENA estimates of levelised cost of energy (grey) and cost data revealed by auctions and power purchase agreements (blue), for onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV. Boxes show 5th to 95th percentile range. Lines show weighted averages. IRENA estimates of high and low range of new fossil fuel power generation shown in red. Data from IRENA (2020b). Major investment – but sustained momentum from dramatic cost reductions Onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV levelised cost of energy (grey) and cont
  • 9. Notes: Historic data for 2000-2009 from IEA (2018), and for 2010-2019 from IEA (2020a). But the trend of fossil fuel – carbon intensity – in conflict Historic (2000-2019) and projected (2010-2050) CO2 intensity of global electricity generation – linear and S-curve projections
  • 10. Power: the cost of low carbon pathways depends on timing and demand management Early investments in renewables + demand management Investments in fossil fuel generation + stranded assets 3.0% of GDP per year 2.2% of GDP per year Investments in fossil fuel generation + stranded assets 3.0% of GDP per year urce: World Bank (2019), ‘Beyond the Gap’
  • 11. Contrasting indicators point to trend transition risk? Traffic light summary (Executive Summary version) System element Indicator Current (2019) status /decadal trend (2010-2019) Paris-consistent? CO2 emissions and technology deployment Power system Total CO2 emissions +10% CO2 intensity (per kWh) -12% Wind Generation growth rate 17%/year average growth Solar Generation growth rate 41%/year average growth Wind and solar PV Combined share of total generation Increase from 2% to 8% Unabated fossil fuels Share of total generation 5.2 percentage point decline Electricity demand Demand growth substantially outpacing non-fossil fuel growth and mostly not displacing other carbon-intensive energy Costs and finance Onshore wind Global weighted average cost (auctions/PPAs) -28% Offshore wind Levelized cost of energy -29% Solar PV Global weighted average cost (auctions/PPAs) -69% All renewables Generation investment – share of renewables ~65%
  • 12. What of Transport – will projections be realised? Mostly vehicles 10 million passenger EVs on the road today, along with more than 500,000 e-buses, almost 400,000 electric delivery vans and trucks and 184 million electric mopeds, scooters and bikes. Growth rate 40% per year
  • 13. Dramatic movements … ` • Most international vehicle manufacturers now producing or launching lines of electric vehicles • Costs sharply declining • Growing number of countries moving to set phase-out date for sale of traditional vehicles • UK set to announce tomorrow - (20 Nov) bringing forward its ICE phase-out date from 2040 to 2030
  • 14. Urban transport: Land use planning lowers investment needs by 20 percent and reduces emissions 0.37% of GDP per year 0.47% of GDP per year Dense cities & public transit Sprawl & individual mobility
  • 15. Shared Micromobility Trips Grew by 62% in 2019 The number of micromobility trips grew 62% from 2018 to 2019 due to the large increase in scooter trips. Shared micromobility refers to small fleets of fully or partially human-powered vehicles including bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters. Trips on scooters more than doubled from 2018 to 2019 while bike trips increased by 3% and e-bike trips increased 54%. Data collection by the National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) began in 2010 and included only bike trips until 2018. Note: Data includes systems with over 150 bikes or scooters and includes only data reported by large cities. Data does not include private or closed campus systems like those operating on university campuses. For more detail, see the source report. Source: National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO), Shared Micromobility in the U.S.: 2019, Summer 2020.
  • 16. With the right policies, investments of 4.5 percent of GDP will enable LMICs to achieve the infrastructure-related SDGs and stay on track to full decarbonization by the second half of the century Source: World Bank (2019), ‘Beyond the Gap’
  • 17. Global energy costs Annual global emissions Time ‘Green’ futures •High-innovation system •Increasingly integrated across sectors •Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’ •Biomass and electricity in transport •High capital costs…. •……but low operating costs ‘Brown’ futures • Continued dependence on fossil fuels • Unconventional and synthetic oil in transport • Low capital costs… •…but higher operating costs • … and a host of environmental issues beyond carbon PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”, Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide ‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca No wind favours those who don't know where they are going Diverging paths …. Topics for this talk: • Are we crossing the ridge? • What are the costs? • Policy Foundations? • … and Covid? We are here
  • 18. with different characteristics and theoretical foundations, apply at different scales Three Domains of decision-processes Improved efficiency and service New technology waves 1. Satisficing Habits, myopia/present-bias, risk aversion, inattention to incidental / intangible costs & opportunities, individual diversity & experimentation, malleable preferences; network effects Behavioural and organisational economics DOMAIN Theoretical foundations Characteristics S O C I A L S C A L E T I M E H O R I Z O N 2. Optimising Economic optimisation based on relative prices, ‘representative agents’ with ‘rational expectations’, stable preferences and tech trends Neoclassical and welfare economics 3. Transform -ing Structural, technological, institutional and behavioural change, typically from strategising, innovation, infrastructure investment Evolutionary and institutional economics New markets, vs Incumbents Source: Planetary Economics
  • 19. The ‘Dark Matter of macroeconomic growth’ • Macro-economic research points to two key areas of economic growth in addition to resource & capital accumulation: – Improving efficiency of many economic actors and structures throughout the economic system – Infrastructure, innovation and education • ie. First and Third Domain processes are recognised as important for macroeconomic development. Yet these remain – largely absent in global (or national) modelling – poorly charted in policy
  • 20. H M L H Highest relevance M Medium relevance L Lowest relevance Satisfice Transform Optimise Domain Standards & Engagement Markets & Prices Strategic Investmen t ‘Smarter’ individual & corporate choices Cleaner products & processes Innovation & infrastructure 1 2 3 L/M H L/M L M H Policy pillars “The EU 3-targets approach is madness.. “ “Other policies such as feed-in tariffs, industry regulation and subsidies, are far less economically preferable than carbon pricing to reduce emissions… “ (OECD, 2013) I beg to differ … Ideal policy comprises a package … Key is to match the best instrument to the respective domain of decision-making
  • 21. Global energy costs Annual global emissions Time ‘Green’ futures •High-innovation system •Increasingly integrated across sectors •Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’ •Biomass and electricity in transport •High capital costs…. •……but low operating costs ‘Brown’ futures • Continued dependence on fossil fuels • Unconventional and synthetic oil in transport • Low capital costs… •…but higher operating costs • … and a host of environmental issues beyond carbon PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”, Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide ‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca No wind favours those who don't know where they are going Diverging paths …. Topics for this talk: • Are we crossing the ridge? • What are the costs? • Policy foundations? • … and Covid? We are here
  • 22. Emerging post-COVID stimulus – mostly in the wrong direction
  • 23. … though in global volume, much may hinge on future of US and Chinese stimulus developments .. Source: Vivid Economics, Green Stimulus Index
  • 24. Covid • A huge macroeconomic shock • A dramatic episode of ‘Schumpeterian Destruction’ • – can it be made a creative one? • Keys will be: – A clear and compelling narrative of the opportunities (and the risks) – International financial cooperation (eg. underwriting) – Synthesis between financial and energy/transport policies – Central Banks need to care about how the money is used – Links between the lending, infrastructure contracts, and environmental revenue opportunities to underwrite 10-20 year payments (eg. carbon pricing, road pricing)
  • 25. 25 Sector policy still crucial to accelerating decarbonisation  `To overcome obstacles in international diffusion ‒ Country risk particularly in some developing countries create high cost of capital ‒ Some State-Owned Enterprises particularly in Asia still funding coal and sometimes impeding renewables ‒ Challenges may be exacerbated by aftermath of Covid (impact on debt and attention to sectoral reform)  To reform power market structures appropriate to ‘free to run’, variable output power sources  To provide the infrastructure of interconnection and electric vehicle charging  To help incumbent industries adjust  To promote both efficient use, and electrification of carbon-intensive end-uses
  • 26. Global energy costs Annual global emissions Time ‘Green’ futures •High-innovation system •Increasingly integrated across sectors •Low-carbon, ‘smart electricity’ •Biomass and electricity in transport •High capital costs…. •……but low operating costs ‘Brown’ futures • Continued dependence on fossil fuels • Unconventional and synthetic oil in transport • Low capital costs… •…but higher operating costs • … and a host of environmental issues beyond carbon PlanetaryEconomicsChapter10,“Transformingsystems”, Figure10-6:Twokindsofenergyfuture–thecarbondivide ‘Ignoranti quem portum petat nullus suus ventus est’ - Lucius Annaeus Seneca No wind favours those who don't know where they are going Diverging paths …. We are here “.. Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.” Robert Frost
  • 27. Michael Grubb Professor of Energy and Climate Change University College London