Global Messaging Trends 2017

Global Messaging Trends 2017 CHina CHat 2017 Grata.co
Global Messaging Trends 2017
CHina CHat Shanghai
21 September 2017
Andrew Schorr
founder @ Grata.co

The “messaging wars” isn’t the
most exciting story this year
Source: the companies *Estimated
Monthly Active Users Year-over-Year Growth Reported
2.01B Facebook +17% Q2 2017
1.30B WhatsApp +30%* 26-Jul-2017
1.20B Messenger +33%* 12-Apr-2017
963M WeChat +19.5% Q2 2017
850M QQ -5.4% Q2 2017
800M Instagram +33%* 25-Sep-2017
328M Twitter +5% Q2 2017
258M* Snap +21% Q2 2017
169M Line +7.6% Q2 2017
100M Telegram no data 23-Feb-2016
49M Kakao +0.7% Q2 2017
15M Kik no data May-2017

z
WeChat is still the king in China
Kleiner Perkins 2017 Internet Trends Report pg 204

And Facebook will not be
unseated anytime soon
Chart: www.recode.net/2017/6/20/15836248/instagram-stories-250-million-users-snapchat

$SNAP vs. $FB
Chart finance.yahoo.com/chart/FB
$136.76
$172.52
$14.72
$24.48
IPO Close
+26%
-40%

The messaging space is
increasingly hard to define
Is WeChat still considered a messaging app?
More and more tangential services plug-in to messaging platforms
Not just human-to-human or consumer-to-business messaging, but
human-to-machine too
Where does the space go from here?

What is communication?
How do we measure improvement in communication?
Helpful to step back even further

Communication is optimized when a
message is conveyed as accurately as
possible with the least amount of friction

Clarity
EaseFriction
Noise
Reducing friction means making it
easier to start and participate in a
conversation
Improving clarity enriches
conversations, effectively
communicating context and emotion
With progress generally comes
increasing frequency of
communication: WhatsApp users
sent 55 billion messages daily
blog.whatsapp.com/10000631/Connecting-One-Billion-Users-Every-Day

Clarity
EaseFriction
Noise
Only with context can we plot a
mode of communication on our
graph; if the context, for example,
is two people trying to find each
other, it’s hard to imagine a more
precise and effortless tool than
real-time location-sharing
Modern messaging apps are
already in the top-right quadrant;
multi-modal so users can select
the most appropriate mode
based on context
○ Smoke Signals
○ Push-to-talk
○ Image
○ Telegram
○ Snail Mail
○ Loudspeaker
○ Banner Ads
○ Phone call
○ Essay
○ Pony Express
○ Video chat
○ Radio broadcast
○ SMS
○ Location sharing

Platforms Voice Vision
Where should we look for continuing gains
in reducing friction and increasing clarity?

Messaging as a Platform
What other features add value when paired with messaging?
This is WeChat’s forte. How are the other platforms doing?

Key pillar of messaging
platforms
China mobile payments
are 50x US
($5.5 trillion versus $112 billion)
ft.com/content/00585722-ef42-11e6-930f-061b01e23655
Payments

Chart: Kleiner Perkins Internet Trends Report 2017
1. Payments in China
are cheap,
2. Lower credit card
adoption in China, and
Why?

Further reading: a16z.com/2017/08/11/qr-codes-in-china/
Image: www.shopify.com/blog/shopcodes-announcement
3. QR Codes are ubiquitous in
China; the dominant payment
mechanism (not NFC)
Snap, Messenger, Kik, and
others use codes, but it’s just
not the same
Shopify’s scan-to-shop
“shopcodes”, announced
September 12th, are a boost

Messenger Platform
Still “start building a bot” rather than
a wider business platform
Platform v2.0 released in April;
July’s v2.1 update adds built-in NLP
and a handover protocol to put a
floor on bad bot experiences.
Payments still in beta, US-only
Image: Facebook messenger.fb.com/blog/messenger-platform-2-1-brings-new-tools-to-enrich-conversations

Android Instant Apps
Closest analog to WeChat Mini-
programs
Streaming apps +
Authentication + Payments
Easier for developers and more
extensible than WeChat MPs
Still in beta; Google will
backdate support to Jelly Bean
Images: Doodle
Further reading: www.androidauthority.com/android-instant-apps-693316

WhatsApp for
Business
Finally
Closed pilot of verified pages
and SMB/enterprise messaging
tools
No public documentation
Image: KLM
9/5/2017 blog.whatsapp.com/10000633/Building-for-People-and-Now-Businesses
1/18/2016 blog.whatsapp.com/615/Making-WhatsApp-free-and-more-useful

Voice as an Interface
In a world of AR/VR, we’re not using a keyboard anymore
Related to growth in Internet of Things, we need to talk to an
increasing number of machines

Smart speakers are a big deal
A year ago, the frenzy was over chatbots; now it’s speakers,
or more appropriately microphones
Image: South Park

Everyone’s making one
Echo Home Dingdong Baidu Xiaoyu Tmall Genie Homepod
Nov
2014
Nov 4
2016
Nov 28
2016
May 4
2017
July 17
2017
Dec
2017
Images: the manufacturers
www.voicebot.ai/2017/07/14/timeline-voice-assistants-short-history-voice-revolution

Amazon vs. Google US market share
76%
24%
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners 18 Sep 2017
This is what a two year head
start looks like
Alexa started handling calls
and messaging in May 2017

The Amazon effect. Cheaper than China.
Images: Amazon, Baidu
$229 $453
Echo Show
Baidu Xiaoyu

It’s about the mic
Apple’s Homepod has six
microphones; Airpods
have two each
Earphones with a chip
inside: the always-on smart
microphone
Calls, voice messages, Siri,
Google Voice
www.apple.com/airpods
www.sonymobile.com/us/products/smart-products/xperia-ear
www.motorolastore.com/accessories/bluetooth-headsets/motorola-hint.html
$140
Xperia Ear
$160
Airpods
$72
Moto Hint

Making progress, but voice is hard
“Real speech technology, like being
able to have my phone turned on
when I am in a crowd and having it
recognize what I am saying, is
twenty years away. When Siri came
out, people thought that speech was
a solved technology problem.”
Jeff Adams
former project lead, Alexa
previously Nuance Dragon Dictation
Chart: Kleiner Perkins Internet Trends Report 2017 pg 48
Quote: www.voicebot.ai/2017/09/06/jeff-adams-led-the-team-that-built-amazon-alexa-cobalt-offers-elite-speech-technology-expertise
Google NLP vs. Human Accuracy

Short-term challenges: discovery + security
Ultrasonic device attacks
“Dolphin Attack” www.fastcodesign.com/90139019/a-simple-design-
flaw-makes-it-astoundingly-easy-to-hack-siri-and-alexa
Voice Modification www.technologyreview.com/s/608381/ai-
shouldnt-believe-everything-it-hears
Chart: BBC
Solving for Voice SEO
Discoverability in Alexa www.voicebot.ai/2017/09/05/amazon-
alexa-now-recommends-third-party-skills
Voice SEO www.voicebot.ai/2017/07/30/voice-seo-new-rules-
discovery
Chart: voicebot.ai

Vision + Messaging
AR/VR will improve both the effectiveness and emotive
power of communication
Vision processing can reduce the need for human to
communicate context to a device
Heads up displays are inevitable; reducing marginal device-
specific friction of smartphones

Oculus’ mixed reality video chat was a good
demonstration of what’s possible
Image: Facebook

BAT all have early AR platforms in China
Baidu DuSee announced 8/2016;
testing 3D augmentation in Baidu
maps and search
Tencent QAR Open Platform
announced 12/2016; QAR = Quick
+ AR; lightweight Android and iOS
SDK
Alibaba implementing VR/AR
changing rooms and make-up
stations in its first offline stores
Slides from QAR first public presentation: vr.sina.com.cn/news/js/2016-12-07/doc-ifxyiayq2668441.shtml
More on DuSee: www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2017/01/18/how-tech-giant-baidu-is-making-china-a-leader-in-augmented-reality
More on Alibaba: jingdaily.com/alibaba-to-open-first-new-retail-mall-china

Google was
early to AR
Project Tango launched in
2014; “great tech, no users”
ARCore will replace high-end
3D mesh tech of Tango in
favor of surface detection
tech
ARCore in limited release,
but will support 100M
Android devices at public
launch
More at techcrunch.com/2017/08/29/google-shows-off-arcore-its-answer-to-apples-arkit

Snap makes
AR cool
More at www.theverge.com/2017/4/18/15333130/snapchat-world-lenses-something-new-for-facebook-to-copy
Tempting to dismiss Snap
world lenses, and for that
matter Apple’s new
animoji, as frivolous, but
their ability to enrich and
delight is in line with
theme of improving
communication

Apple will make
it normal
IKEA Place App
Image: techcrunch.com/2017/09/12/ikea-place-the-retailers-first-arkit-app-creates-lifelike-pictures-of-furniture-in-your-home
More at: techcrunch.com/2017/08/29/a-preview-of-the-first-wave-of-ar-apps-coming-to-iphones
Announced at WWDC in
June 2017; works with iOS
11 devices
Apple has advantages
controlling OS + device
relative to Google, Snap,
WeChat, etc

Microsoft Vision API makes for fun bots
twitter.com/citydescriber

If not
always
accurate

Easy to imagine its trajectory
An aerial view of Barcelona
Cathedral and the
surrounding Eixample
district in Barcelona,
Spain…
Better still: Connect to
maps, venues, real-time
contextual data, and more

Google’s already
there
Google Lens connects
image processing to
Google services
Announced at Google I/O
May 2017; rolling out first
on Google Assistant and
Photos
www.engadget.com/2017/05/17/google-lens-brings-ai-understanding-to-assistant-and-photos

Google Lens + Translate

Smartphone AR is a stepping
stone to a heads up display
Further reading: wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here
Image: www.x.company/glass
Glass is back
Five years after first launching,
it’s now strictly for work,
improving productivity and
quality in manufacturing
Improved battery life, camera,
and processor; lighter
equipment can be attached to
any frame
Glass Enterprise Edition
Available only through Google Partners
$1,800+

Glasses for the rest of us?
Snap Spectacles launched one
year ago; estimated sales of 100K+
units; v2.0 in development is
rumored to include AR
Apple is widely rumored to be
developing glasses for ARKit
Amazon rumored to be shipping
Alexa-powered glasses this year
Sales estimates: www.businessinsider.com/snap-spectacles-sales-slowdown-in-q2-2017-8
Apple glasses: www.theverge.com/2016/11/14/13631010/apple-wearable-smart-glasses-ar-vr-google-glass
Amazon glasses: www.ft.com/content/d7862042-9d9a-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946
Magic Leap: www.businessinsider.fr/us/magic-leap-update-design-images-revealed-patent-filing-2017-8
Latest Spectacles news: www.recode.net/2017/9/21/16346862/snap-spectacles-hardware-division-layoffs-steve-horowitz
Magic Leap patent filing
Coming soon?
$130
spectacles.com

The Intersection
of AR +
Messaging?
Finding your friend at a
music festival
Neon app built on ARKit:
better than sending a pin
on a map
Geo-located messages
Geo-located messages
uploadvr.com/neon-social-ar-app-friend-finding-sign-posting

Will wearables kill
the smartphone?
Combination of an always-on
microphone, ambient camera,
heads up display, and voice
commands will gradually allow
us to put down the smartphone
This will remove the seemingly
last friction in digital
communication
The next best use-cases likely
haven’t been thought of yet
Image: South Park

Thank you!
Andrew Schorr
founder @ Grata.co
Grata is a live-chat platform
for the messaging era
www.grata.co
twitter.com/grata_co
 WeChat @ grata_co
facebook.com/grataapp
andrew@grata.co

Global Messaging Trends 2017

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