Global Messaging Trends 2019

Global Messaging Trends CHina CHat 2019 andrew@grata.co
Global Messaging Trends
2019
Image: Tatiana Fet

It was hard to be bullish in 2018

For 2019
every single company we looked
at had some pretty awful headlines

From the embarrassing

To the surprising

To the damning

Facebook fell
43 spots on a
survey of 100
brands ranked by
reputation
https://www.axios.com/axios-harris-poll-corporate-reputations-bcc0c03d-0bb5-4eb1-b591-4622bb4b01ed.html

Failing at ethics and
citizenship, Facebook
barely beat out
the US Congress,
Philipp Morris, and
the Trump Organization
https://www.axios.com/axios-harris-poll-corporate-reputations-bcc0c03d-0bb5-4eb1-b591-4622bb4b01ed.html

But unlike in 2018, Wall Street was a party

Facebook shares up 17%
over last year, despite
slipping with the valuable
12-34 demographic
https://www.slideshare.net/webby2001/the-social-habit-2019-from-edison-research
2017 2019
-21%
Estimated 12-34yo Facebook users in US

12-34yo is Snap’s
demographic.
Snap shares are
+84% in the last
twelve months.
https://www.slideshare.net/webby2001/the-social-habit-2019-from-edison-research

https://www.pewinternet.org/2018/05/31/teens-social-media-technology-2018/
The highest number of
teens reported that Snap
is their most used app

Last year Snap was shedding high-level
staff, losing advertisers, recovering from a failed
app redesign, getting beaten by Instagram on their own
Stories feature, had falling DAU QoQ, falling time-in-app QoQ,
a share price at an all-time low, people had started to question their
vision…

So they changed their logo
And everyone lost their minds

Snap has always gotten the
long-term vision right.

Discover AR
+35% audience growth YoY
+300% Shows consumption
500k user-generated lenses
New “Scan” machine-vision
Games Kit
Launched April 4th
No-install, real-time social games
2x app integration since last year
New ad-distribution network
They’re losing $305M/quarter on bold, long-term investments
https://investor.snap.com/~/media/Files/S/Snap-IR/press-release/q2-19-earnings-release.pdf

And they’ve
always been
sexy
Spectacles 3
2 cameras
3 dimensions
4 microphones

Scan Shop

Scan Photomath

“Discover” premium content studio
Snap Originals
Full screen vertical video
6-second un-skippable ads
Snap did $388M in Q2
revenue, mostly on ads
Ads need good content
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKU99fWC1xs

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/04/snap-games/
8-players with up to 24-person audience
Real-time, social, vertical full-screen
Monetized with same un-skippable ads
rather than in-app purchases which are
problematic with young users
There’s no more engaging
content than games

( I pretty much had to say that. )

PRIVATE INTERACTIONS ENCRYPTION REDUCING PERMANENCE
People should have simple, intimate
places where they have clear control
over who can communicate with
them and confidence that no one
else can access what they share.
Private communications should be
secure: end-to-end encryption
prevents anyone -- including us --
from seeing what people share on
our services.
We won't keep messages or stories
around for longer than necessary to
deliver the service or longer than
people want them
SAFETY INTEROPERABILITY SECURE DATA STORAGE
We will do everything we can to
keep people safe on our services
within the limits of what's possible in
an encrypted service
People should be able to use any of
our apps to reach their friends, and
they should be able to communicate
across networks easily and securely
We won't store sensitive data in
countries with weak records on
human rights like privacy and
freedom of expression
https://www.facebook.com/notes/mark-zuckerberg/a-privacy-focused-vision-for-social-networking/10156700570096634/
https://www.cnet.com/news/facebooks-new-mantra-the-future-is-private/
The Facebook Privacy Manifesto

In summary
personal > social
personal = messaging

This is how
teens already
feel about
Snap
Snapchat is definitely more about talking to
people, while other social media apps are
more about exploring content from creators
you don’t know personally
I definitely use Insta[gram] every day but I
don’t post on my account that often.
https://www.wired.com/story/teen-love-snapchat-keeping-snap-afloat
It feels more like communication than like exhibition

And the data
backs up the
preeminence of
messaging over
social
https://www.pewinternet.org/2019/08/22/in-emerging-economies-smartphone-and-social-media-users-have-broader-social-networks

https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/16/18627760/instagram-direct-standalone-messaging-app-snapchat-shutdown
R.I.P.
Launched December 2017, the app never
really got out of beta. Users expressed
frustration at having to switch between
Instagram and Direct just to message.
FB retired “Direct”, the
camera-first messaging
companion app to Instagram

https://www.wired.com/story/instagram-threads/
www.theverge.com/2019/8/26/20833903/facebook-instagram-threads-messaging-app-close-friends-snapchat
Facebook’s next challenge to Snap is
called Threads. It launched Oct 3rd.
It’s also a camera-first, messaging-focused
app for your close friends on Instagram,
but messages synch across both apps.
Interesting feature: Opt-in auto-sharing
feature based on phone sensors: “on the
move”, “getting lunch”, or “low battery”

Facebook was supposed
to fast follow WeChat
Facebook saw WeChat as simultaneous
threat and a potential product roadmap since
at least 2013. But despite inspiring some of
Messenger and many of Business for
Messenger features, the products are very
different.
2013
2015
2016
2019

Messenger entry points
Credit to
Facebook, their
web entry points
are better than
WeChat’s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD-uAkJLQsk&list=PLb0IAmt7-GS2O4a6XbFciZmtwatWoXtAt&index=3

Messenger chat elements are better suited for chatbots than WeChat

Messenger
Despite a new WeChat API, Messenger still has a better UX for getting customer info

Messenger’s horizontal carousel is more efficient use of a smartphone display

Messenger’s webview implementation in a tab overlay is better UX than WeChat’s

Oculus Quest
• Top platform for XR developers
For the first time, Oculus
Rift was rated the
preferred device for VR
developers. And Oculus
Quest tied the previous
three year title-holder,
HTC Vive.
Oculus announced new
Half Dome models
currently being tested for
workplace collaboration.
https://www.wired.com/story/future-ar-vr-survey/ https://venturebeat.com/2019/09/25/facebook-teases-oculus-half-dome-2-and-3-prototypes/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is8eXZco46Q
“Horizon” is the new immersive VR chatroom + gaming
platform teased at Oculus Connect September 25th

Expectations for Portal were
low, having launched at (let’s
hope) the nadir of Facebook’s
reputation for privacy.
The latest models are still
powered by Alexa for skills, and
now integrate with Messenger
and WhatsApp.
With the launch of a TV model
and enhanced body movement
tracking, the expectation is that
Portal transitions into gaming.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-facebook-portal-smart-speaker-is-back-now-with-more-ai

The voice assistant
industry exploded to
one third of the US
population, but growth
will slow.
https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-voice-assistant-users-2019

https://voicebot.ai/2019/03/07/u-s-smart-speaker-ownership-rises-40-in-2018-to-66-4-million-and-amazon-echo-maintains-market-share-lead-says-new-report-from-voicebot/
Alexa’s still dominant but losing market share

5.2% Messaging
10.4% Email
0.7% Calendar
0.6% Voice
0.5% Video Chat
1.2% Other
2019
Messaging is the fastest growing workplace communication app,
mostly at the expense of email and voice communication.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/1/18511575/productivity-slack-google-microsoft-facebook

Business Messaging AdoptionMicrosoft the clear
victor here. Skype for
Business retires in
2021, getting folded
into Teams.
Facebook has several
marquee large
enterprise installs, but
barely makes the
chart.
https://community.spiceworks.com/blog/3157-business-chat-apps-in-2018-top-players-and-adoption-plans

Found on FB Workplace
but not in WeChat Work:
Live streaming
Official Groups
Org Chart
Searchable colleague skills
Auto-translate in 46 languages

Large enterprise CIO
Net Spending Intentions
Teams Slack
OCT2018
APR2019
JUL2019
67%68%
62%
28%
38%
51%
Chart data: http://etr.plus/articles/no-slack-by-teams
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/9/20686206/microsoft-teams-slack-facebook-snapchat-copy
Slack is getting hammered
by Teams at large orgs
Slack redefined office messaging, but
Teams has caught up: rated a
“tolerable” alternative
Slack is $8 or $15 per user per
month, while Teams is basically free
with Office 365
-45%

Slack -33% since IPO in June
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WORK

Microsoft Teams + Office 365
Teams is at the heart of a strategy to leverage core competency
of Office software but updated to be more collaborative
Major initiatives to re-imagine
Office for Voice (voice
commands, real-time
language translation, super
accurate transcription service)
and position Cortana to
coordinate across different
Microsoft assets

Cortana re-centers on Office
Cortana is now less a digital assistant
app (Windows 10 opened up to
Alexa; Cortana no longer default
Windows search), and more a
background enterprise connector for
calendar, tasks, docs, and
colleagues.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/8/18536088/microsoft-cortana-interview-vision-build-2019
https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/25/20727129/microsoft-cortana-features-strategy-report
Surface Earbuds $250
Coming soon

Microsoft Hardware
Rumors that Teams will get a new
portable speaker for meetings
New Surface Earbuds for the
Office. Microsoft teasing real-time
captioning and translations while
giving a Powerpoint presentation.
Microsoft building out AR/VR as
the next office. As with Google
Glass, Hololens is increasingly
focused on business applications
for the “deskless”.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/10/20858690/microsoft-surface-portable-speaker-microsoft-teams-meeting-rooms-patent-rumors

ECHO FRAMES relatively inconspicuous
mic, personal speaker, and swipe input
ECHO BUDS combine Alexa with
premium Bose noise cancellation
ECHO LOOP puts a mic and speaker
on your finger and looks like a gimmick
ECHO FLEX
Plug Alexa
into an outlet
for just $25
Alexa
Everywhere
Broad range of
devices including
experimental
hardware in a push
to get Alexa
everywhere at
affordable prices.

Google will start running
Assistant on device
10x faster responses means it’s faster
than tapping and swiping for nearly any
operation
On-device is, in theory, more private
Similarly, Apple filed a 2017 patent for
an offline voice assistant
Google still the best
performing assistant
https://loupventures.com/annual-digital-assistant-iq-test
Results over 800 questions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GILvyiWB7xY
Watch assistant on-device:

After so many delays, will
RCS even make an impact?
Rich Communication Service (RCS) is meant to
replace SMS, using data networks and adding
features like “user typing” notifications, read
receipts, stickers, etc.
Despite push from Google, RCS is currently
available on only a limited number of Android
devices, carriers, and regions
Google quietly started supporting RCS “chats”
within Android Messages, but requires opt-in
https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/17/18681573/google-rcs-chat-android-texting-carriers-imessage-encryption

Will we ever see an
iMessage Android app?
If not Facebook or Google, perhaps
Apple is best positioned to be the
WeChat of the West. Would Apple
ever open up iMessage?
Apple already has many of the
components: an app ecosystem,
payments, maps, Business Chat
platform, fun Animoji, etc.
https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-privacy-pivot-messaging/
https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/13/18677644/imessage-iphone-apple-secure-encrypted-chat-moral-imperative-signal-rcs-hangouts
Appstore WalletiMessage
Maps
Animoji
Apple Business Chat

SLOW MODE: Throttle messaging to
promote more thoughtful discussion
Location-
based public
group chats
Think: local
businesses,
conferences,
events
Granular user
permissions
Ability to create
listen-only groups,
ban stickers, etc.
Identify group chat admins by custom roles
Telegram’s
200,000
person
group chats
Telegram has been a
consistent innovator.
Group chat controls
are a frequent gripe of
WeChat users, where
groups are limited to
just 500 people.
https://telegram.org/blog/6-years

What about all those bad headlines
from the start?
Social media and messaging have
some existential questions to work out.

We are
simultaneously
better informed
but more easily
manipulated
https://www.pewinternet.org/2019/05/13/publics-in-emerging-economies-worry-social-media-sow-division-even-as-they-offer-new-chances-for-political-engagement

Targeted advertising vs Privacy
Content moderation vs Freedom of Speech
Law enforcement vs Encryption
Selling user data vs Charging for the product
We haven’t figured out the right balance yet

Encryption is
nearly an industry
standard, but
viewed by some
intelligence
services and law
enforcement as
adversarial
https://www.securemessagingapps.com
iMessage
Messenger
RCS
Signal
SMS
Snap
Telegram
WeChat
WhatsApp
End-to-end encryption available?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/
09/28/us/child-sex-abuse.html
Messenger added optional
encryption in 2019.
In 2018, Messenger
submitted 12 million of the
18.4 million worldwide
reports of child sexual
abuse material

https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FOTN_2018_Final%20Booklet_11_1_2018.pdf
Countries are blocking apps they can’t control
22 of 65
countries reviewed by
Freedom House are
blocking social media
and messaging apps
Free
Partly free
Not free
Not assessed

Predictions for 2020
Platforms continue to struggle with
privacy, disinformation, and security
Voice increasingly the
interface of choice
We finally accept smart glasses
This is an easy prediction as any
solution is a compromise.
The industry has embraced encryption
which is in conflict with content
moderation, law enforcement, and
intelligence services. More encryption
means more nations blocking apps.
Can Facebook ever respect privacy
while it’s business model is primarily
advertising?
On-device language processing is a
game changer.
Increasingly low latency and low error
rates for digital assistants and speech-
to-text mean we’ll start talking to our
devices more than we tap and swipe,
starting with the latest generation of
devices coming on the market in the
next several months.
Amazon just jumped in.
Apple is right behind them.
People thought Airpods were too
weird to get adoption; now everyone
makes pods. These two companies,
particularly Apple, have the power to
move the consumer market. Glasses
won’t seem so strange by the end of
next year.

About Grata
Andrew Schorr
founder @Grata.co
andrew@grata.co
andrew_schorr
grata_co
grata_co
Grata is made-for-China live chat
software for WeChat official accounts,
mini-programs, WeChat Work, and
web chat.
Find out more at grata.co or grata.cn

Recommended viewing
DEMO: Google Assistant
running on-device
This is how we will be interacting with
our devices in the very near future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GILvyiWB7xY
DEMO: Azure Transcription
service
Error-free transcription from a
microphone array of smartphones and
a Surface at very high complexity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYinMnQWgfU
The Mirror World
AR will spark the next big tech
platform, merging physical
reality with the digital universe
https://www.wired.com/story/mirrorworld-ar-
next-big-tech-platform

Global Messaging Trends 2019

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