this presentation will tell you about the different aspects of climate change and its impact on vector borne diseases

1. CLIMATE CHANGE
ON
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
Presented by :
Anil
Kumar
MPHE

2. NEED….??
GREENHOUSE GASES CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE IN ECOLOGICAL
PHENOMENON
CHANGE IN ECOLOGICAL
PHENOMENON
EFFECTS VECTOR
PROLIFERATION

3. CONTENTS :
 INTRODUCTION
 CLIMATE CHANGE
 DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 CLIMATE CHANGE ON VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
 CONCLUSION
 REFERENCES

4. It is the continuously changing condition of the
atmosphere, usually considered on a time scale that
extends from minutes to weeks.
CLIMATE :
It is the average state of the lower atmosphere,
and the associated characteristics of the
underlying land or water, in a particular region,
usually spanning at least several years.
INTRODUCTION

5. CLIMATE CHANGE
def:
“Climate change refers to any change in
climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity. ”
(ref: IPCC, 2007)
A statistical analysis to separate solar and anthropogenic influences
implied that 60% of the warming in the last 140 years was due to
human activity (Beer et al, 2000)

6. VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
ENVIRONMENT
HOSTAGENT

7. VECTOR BORNE
DISEASE CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
LAND USE, WATER STORAGE & IRRIGATION
POLLUTION
TRADE & HUMAN
MOVEMENT
INVASIVE VECTOR &
PATHOGEN
URBANISATION
Drivers which effects the potential of vector borne diseases globally

8. Anthropogenic
Synthetic fertilizers & chemicals
Deforestation
Change in land use pattern
Green House Gases
Industries
Unplanned urbanization
Natural
Solar radiation
Methane gas emission from
plants
Meteorites
Volcanic Eruptions
Forest Fire
Ocean Currents
DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

9. GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
About half of the incident solar radiation (wavelength between 0.2 – 0.4 µm) is
absorbed at the earth surface.
the radiation warms the earth surface which then emits energy in the thermal
infrared region, constituents in the earths atmosphere are able to absorb this
radiation.
These radiation are then subsequently emitted in both the direction, upward and
downward.
This downward emission of radiation further warms the surface.
Principle components of GH effect : GHGs, clouds & aerosols.

11. Evidences
of
CLIMATE CHANGE

12. Trace gases concentration:
(Source : IPCC reports)

14. Change in temperature :

16. Sea-level from satellites: 4 cm rise in last 10 years

17. Source : summary for policymaker of IPCC, 2007

18. RISE IN TEMPERATURE OVER A PERIOD OF TIME

19. (Source : IPCC report, 2014)

21. TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
CLIMATIC
VARIABILITY
(EXTREMES)
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT

22. CLIMATE
CHANGE • HEATWAVES
• EXTREME
WEATHER
• TEMPERATURE
• PRECIPITATION
• SEA LEVEL
• MICROBIAL
CONTAMINATION
PATHWAYS
• TRANSMISSION
DYNAMICS
AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS,
HYDROLOGY
SOCIOECONOMICS,
DEMOGRAPHICS
TEMPERATURE
RELATED ILLNESSS
& DEATH
EXTREME WEATHER
RELATED HEALTH
EFFECTS
AIR POLLUTION
RELATED HEALTH
EFFECTS
WATER & FOOD
BORNE DISEASES
VECTOR-BORNE &
RODENT-BORNE
DISEASES
NUTRITIONAL,
INFECTIOUS &
OTHER EFFECTS
MODULATING
INFLUENCES
Source: patz et al., 2000(22)

23. CLIMATE CHANGE
On
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES

24. (source : climatenexus)

25. (source : climatenexus)

26. List of major Vector Borne Diseases
Zika
Scrub typhus
KFD

27. Environment
Agent
Vector
 With 1.07 million cases and 535 deaths in 2014 in India, still MALARIA
continues as major VBDs in INDIA.(NVBDCP)
 Globally >220‐400 m additional pop at risk by 2020 to 2080.
 Increase in communicable diseases. Malaria projected to move to higher
latitudes and altitudes in India.(IPCC report,2007)
 It is predicted that global warming will increase the area of malaria
transmission from 45% of the world’s population to 60% (Epstein, 2001).
Host

29. Malarial parasite Sporogony (days)
P. vivax 16 55
28 7
18 29
P. falciparum 20 20
24 11
28 9
P. malariae 28 15
MALARIA

30. DENGUE
 Jetten and Focks (1997) –Increasing temperatures will increase length of
transmission season in temperate regions.
• Patz et al. (1998) used simulation analyses to link temperature outputs from
three general circulation models (GCM) to a dengue vectorial capacity
equation
*Predicted temperature-related increases (averages of 31-47%) in
potential seasonal transmission.
*Predicted risks would initially increase near edges of current
distribution.
*Also predicted that endemic areas would be at more risk of DHF as
transmission intensity increases.
Dengue virus temperature Incubation period
DEN 2 virus 30°c 12 days
32-35°c 7 days
For Stegomia aegypti

32. Chikungunya
a. Circles indicate old foci of chikungunya (till 1973)
b. Filled circles indicate new foci of chikungunya (2005 onwards)

33. Circles indicate old foci of kala-azar; filled squares indicate kala-azar cases that
occurred till 1982; squares indicate re-emergence of cases; rhombus indicate new
foci of kala-azar after 1982 (source: Dhiman et al 2010)
Kala- azar

34. Japanese encephalitis

35. Filariasis
Filarial parasite Temperature (°c) Developmental cycle in
mosquito (days)
W. bancrofti 26 – 28 11 – 21 (15)
Vector species Optimum temperature (°c) Extreme temperature (°c)
Culex quinquefasciatus 24 - 28 <16 or >36

36. Plague
Observations:
 Seasonality in transmission
 Survival of fleas
 Ability of fleas to transmit and retain infection
 Blockage of flea foregut by Y. pestis biofilm is
disrupted at temperatures > 27.5°C –(Blocked fleas
transmit more efficiently)
 Rodent host and flea vector population
dynamics (Trophic cascade model)

37. Increased human plague risks

38. PREDICTING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON VECTOR
BORNE DISEASES
*Assessing effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases
Source: Data from Chan et al. 1999; Figure in Gubler et al. 2001

39. References :
 Andrew K. Githeko and et al., Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional
analysis; WHO, 2008., Ref. No. 00-0737
IPCC report summary, 1995
 IPCC report summary, 2007
 IPCC report summary, 2014
 IPCC scientific assessment report, 1991
 Impact of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases with Emphasis on Malaria,
NIMR
Paul E. Parham and et al., Climate, environment and socio economic change:
weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission; Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B
370: 20130551.
 R. C. Dhiman and et al., Climate change and malaria in India; Current Science, vol.
90, no. 3, 10 february 2006

41. Preservation of our environment is not a
liberal or conservative challenge, it’s
common sense.
- RONALD REAGAN
CLIMATE change and when will you...!