Global eCommerce sales are growing at 19% annually and accounted for $2.8 trillion in 2017. In Latin America, eCommerce sales reached $45 billion in 2017 and are projected to continue growing 20% annually. Mexico and Brazil lead Latin American eCommerce, with Mexico reaching $7.6 billion in sales in 2017 growing 23% and Brazil reaching $17.4 billion growing 10%. Major eCommerce players like Amazon and MercadoLibre dominate sales, but growth opportunities remain in categories like appliances and personal goods.
2. Global eCommerce
sales are growing at
19% annually
10% of total retail
sales are accounted for
by eCommerce sales
Global eCommerce
revenue in 2017
accounted for U$2.8Tn
15 eCommerce players
generate +60% of
gross merchandise sales
Appliances and personal
goods are some of the
categories with the
highest growth potential
eCommerce sales in
Latam reached $45Bn in
2017 and will continue
growing 20% annually
MercadoLibre leads
the eCommerce
space in Latam
with 61M AMUVs,
but not for long
Consumers will turn
to private labels
because retailers favor
the discovery of
owned brands
Asia leads in eCommerce
innovations and the
integration of physical
and digital spaces
Fraud is still a
critical deterrent for
eCommerce in Latam,
(8% of orders are rejected)
Top insights from
the 2018 eCommerce
handbook
3. consulting
eCommerce represents 10% of total retail sales and will maintain growing double digit
Digital buyers and penetration, by region
(2017)
Global eCommerce sales
(2015–2021F, in trillions USD)
% of Total
Retail Sales
Region
Asia-Pacific
Western Europe
North America
Latin America
Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East and Africa
Worldwide
2015
$1.6
$1.9
$2.4
$2.9
$3.4
$4.1
$4.5
% of total
retail sales
Digital buyers
penetration*
2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
7.4% 8.7% 10.0% 11.5% 12.0% 14.6% 15.5%
57.0% 58.3% 60.2% 61.6% 63.0% 64.6% 65.2%
14.4%
9.0%
9.0%
1.9%
3.4%
1.9%
10.0%
925
217
203
155
113
49
1,662
61.7%
74.7%
77.6%
48.8%
44.6%
36.0%
60.2%
Digital
Buyers (M)
Digital Buyers
Penetration*19%CAGR
Source: eMarketer, August 2016. Note: *as % of total Internet users. 1
4. consulting
Credit cards represent 49% of total global eCommerce transactions
Regional eCommerce sales share by payment method
(2020, in billions USD)
Global eCommerce sales share by payment method
(2015 and 2020, in trillions USD and % of total)
Credit card
Credit card
Digital wallet
Digital wallet
Transfer
Transfer
Other*
Other*2015 2020
$1.8 $3.4
13%
12%
26%
49%
14%
12%
32%
42%
65%
63%
42%
28%
22%
4%
22%
43%
8%
11%
20%
11%
5%
22%
16%
18%
North America
Latin America
EMEA
Asia-Pacific
Source: McKinsey and Company, “Global Payments 2016”, September 2016. Note: *Includes Prepay Solutions and Cash on Delivery. 2
5. consulting
Amazon is now bigger than almost all brick and mortar retailers put together
Retailer’s market cap in the US
(in billions USD, % change)
2008
% change
2018
$11 $9 $18 $29$12 $22$219
$8 $21 $41$8 $262 $729$1
$14
$11
3,228%19%42%18%-25%-35%-9%-89%
Source: SWS Analysis, Google Finance, February 2018. 3
6. consulting
15 eCommerce players account for +60% of gross merchandise sales
eCommerce gross merchandise sales volume¹
(Global, 2016)
$1.9Tn
16%
39%
Rest of the web
16%
5%
4%
2%
1%²
<1%²
11%
4Source: Activate, “Tech and Media Outlook 2018”. Activate analysis, Company financials, eCommerce Foundation, eMarketer, Fortune, GeekWire, Nasdaq, National
Retail Federation, OfferUp, OLX, TechCrunch. Note: 1. Excluding travel and tickets. 2. Each 1% or <1% respectively.
7. consulting
Growth in time spent per website visit¹
(US, August 2015-2017, % change)
Key strengths of specialty retail
Retailers and brands will continue growing by offering more engaging experiences
+140%
+68%
+45%
+41%
+23%
+24%
+18%
+18%
+14%
-10% Total Internet²
Consumer trust
and reputation
Value-added
services
Personalized and
curated services
In demand
merchandise
Source: Activate analysis, comScore. Note: 1. Time spent on website per visit across all platforms. 2. Average time spent per visit across all Internet as defined by comScore. 5
8. consulting
Dish Care Surface Care
Non-Branded
Branded
Air Care Laundry Care
Private-label sales share,
supermarkets and mass channels
(US, 2016, % of sales)
Shifts in US search behavior
(2020E)
Branded vs. non-branded growth in search volume
(US, April 2016 vs. March 2017)
Examples of
private-label brands
with high value
and perception
of searches will
be voice searches
of searches will be
done without
a screen
Consumers will turn to private labels and retailers will favor the discovery of owned brands
Private-label sales
18%
$118B
50% 30%
6%
17%
29%
10%
14%
18%
34% 36%
Source: Activate analysis, Branded3, comScore, Gartner, Keyword Tool IO, L2, Manufacturing Association, MediaPost, Nielsen, Private Label 6
9. consulting
Appliances and personal goods are some of the categories with highest growth potential
eCommerce growth matrix by product category, US
PotentialforShiftfromPhysicaltoeCommerce¹
High
Low
0% 70%Category Share of eCommerce Sales 2016 (%)
ADVANCED
ECOMMERCE
ADOPTION
ACCELERATING
SHIFT TO
ECOMMERCE
PREDOMINANTLY
ONLINE
SLOW SHIFT
TO ECOMMERCE
Products are
predominantly digital
Products involve
first-hand experience, e.g., food
freshness, used car condition
DELAYED
ECOMMERCE
ADOPTION
ELECTRONICS
MUSIC AND VIDEO
BOOKS
TOYS AND
GAMES
SPORTING
GOODS
APPAREL
BEAUTY AND
HEALTH
FURNITURE AND
APPLIANCES
SHOES
AUTOMOTIVE
GROCERY
HOME AND
KITCHEN
TOOLS AND HOME
IMPROVEMENT
Source: Activate analysis, Activate 2017 Consumer Tech and Media Research Study. Cowen and Company, eMarketer, Kantar Retail, Nielsen, US Census Bureau. 7
10. consulting
Groceries and cars will be the next eCommerce battleground—but adoption will be slow
eCommerce adoption forecast by category, US
2016USOfflineRetailSales(inbillionsUSD)
1,200
800
400
Low
0
HighProjected Speed Of Adoption¹
SLOW SHIFT
TO ECOMMERCE
2016 share of online
sales in category
NEXT IN LINE WITH
SLOW ADOPTION
Grocery
3%
Automotive
11%
Attractive categories
because of large offline
revenues to be captured
Sporting
Goods
23%
Beauty and
Health
18%
Furniture and
Appliances
16%
Apparel
20%
Shoes
17% Books
67%
Music and
Video
67%Toys and
Games
21%
Home and
Kitchen
8%
What could
accelerate eCommerce
penetration in grocery?
Consumer Trust
in fresh food delivery
Delivery Experience
that is fast and satisfactory,
particularly for fresh food
offerings
Pricing
that is consistent
and competitive
Electronics
23%
%
Source: Activate analysis. DrugStore News, eMarketer Euromonitor, IBIS World, International Publisher’s Association, IRI, One Click Retail, PricewaterhouseCoopers,
St. Louis FRED, US Census Bureau, Venture Beat, Wazir.
8
11. consulting Source: Activate analysis, Alexa, comScore, eMarketer, i-scoop, RetailDive, UPS, Walmart
of consumers who prefer to buy
online rely on a physical store
before or after their purchase
Non contiguous
Pacific
Mountain
Midwest
Southeast
Northeast
Southwest
Many retailers are leveraging their physical presence to drive higher revenue per shopper
Impact of Walmart’s physical footprint on online engagement by region in the US
2016, number of Walmart stores vs. ratio of online visits (Walmart / Amazon)
9
RatioofOnlineVisits/(%)
20%
15%
10%
0
5%
1,500Number of Supercentres
drives more traffic to walmart.com
in regions with a larger store footprint
67%
12. consulting
Latam reached 177M eShoppers and 360M Internet users
GDP
2016 in billions USD 2016 in millions 2017 in millions 2017 in millions 2017 in millions % of Internet users
Population
Internet
Users
Smartphone
Users
eShooppers
$1,775
$1,144
$583
$292
$1,254
$5,048
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
ROLA
Total Latam
208
128
44
49
150
579
123
71
31
28
101
354
133
65
32
34
130
394
59
31
25
-
53
177
48%
40%
56%
-
52%
49%
Source: World Bank, 2016. Internet World Stats, 2016. eMarketer, 2017. Advertising Age “Hispanic Fact Pack”, 2017. CIA World Factbook, 2017. Encuesta Nacional sobre
Disponibilidad y Uso de Tecnologías de la Información en los Hogares (ENDUTIH) 2017, INEGI. 10
13. consulting
eCommerce sales in Latam reached $45Bn in 2017 and will grow 20% annually
Retail eCommerce sales in Latam
(2015 – 2020F, in billions USD)
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Other*
10%
23%
35%
24%
20%CAGR 15’-20’
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
$29.8
$36.9
$45.4
$54.0
$64.4
$74.8
7.9
3.4
4.8
13.7
10.1
5.2
6.1
15.6
13.1
7.3
7.6
17.4
15.8
9.8
9.3
19.1
19.7
12.6
11.1
20.9
23.6
15.4
13.2
22.6
Source: eMarketer, August 2016. 11
14. consulting
MercadoLibre leads the eCommerce space in Latam with 61M monthly visitors
Credit card usage for digital purchases in Latam
(July 2016, % of respondents)
Top 10 eCommerce sites in Latam
(Dec 2016, in millions, avg. monthly unique visitors)
61
23
20
19
12
12
12
10
10
9
2 countries
Brazilsince 2012
Mexicosince 2015
Mexico
69%
63%
59%
55%
33%
30%
Chile Brazil Colombia Peru
Dominican
Republic
19 countries
12Source: Tecnocom, “Tendencias en Medios de Pago 2016”, November 2016. comScore Media Metrix, April 2017. Note: MercadoLibre is available in the following Latam countries:
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, DR, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, El Salvador, Uruguay, Venezuela
15. consulting
Rising connectivity in Mexico continues to boost the country’s digital economy
Online sales growth
In the last 4 years,
online sales have grown
at a rate of 43%, while in
the same period the retail
sector has grown 5%.
Hot Sale growth
Total 2017-edition
HotSales reached
U$ 262M, 4.2 times
more than in 2016.
Connectivity
Mexico is more connected
than ever. In 2017 over
71M individuals had Internet
access and 65M owned
a Smartphone.
Market validation
Major venture capital
investments are also on the
rise in Mexico. For example,
mattress company Luuna
just raised U$5M in funding.
Source: AMVO, INEGI, Endeavor, 2017. 13
16. consulting
In 2017, Mexico reached $7.6 Bn USD eCommerce sales for 23% annual growth
Product/service categories purchased
digitally by internet users in Mexico
(Feb 2017, % of respondents)
Mexico eCommerce revenues
(2015–2020F, in billions USD)
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Travel
Events
Clothing
Electronics
Telecom
Culture
Beauty
Banking
Home
Sports
Groceries
1.2%
% of total
retail sales
Digital buyers
penetration*
1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5%
- 38.3% 40.0% 40.9% 41.6% 43.0%
$4.8
$6.1
$7.6
$9.3
$11.1
$13.2
23%CAGR
32%
30%
28%
25%
21%
18%
15%
13%
11%
11%
8%
Source: eMarketer, August 2016, June 2017. The Cocktail Analysis and Instituto Superrior para el Desarrollo de Internet (ISDI), March 2017. Note: *as % of total Internet users. 14
17. consulting
43% of Mexican online buyers prefer to research online and purchase offline
Research & purchase method
(percentage of respondents)
Mexico online consumer profile
50% men
50% women
36
Has a full
time job
87% own a
smartphone
Mostly purchases
fashion and tech
Mostly
consumes
travel
Prefers paying
with Pay Pal
years
old
Research
Offline/
Purchase
Offline
Research
Offline/
Purchase
Online
Research
Online/
Purchase
Offline
Research
Online/
Purchase
Online
43%
48%
18%
7%
Source: Google's Consumer Barometer Survey, 2014/2015. 15
18. consulting
Brazil’s 2017 eCommerce sales reached $17.4 Bn with 10% annual growth
Top 10 eCommerce categories in Brazil
(H1 2017, % of total)
Brazil eCommerce revenues
(2015–2020F, in billions USD)
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Fashion
Personal health
Home and décor
Home appliances
Mobile phones
Books and suscriptions
Sports and leisure
Software
Groceries
Electronics
2.2%
% of total
retail sales
Digital buyers
penetration*
2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%
- 45.9% 47.7% 49.4% 50.6% 51.7%
$13.7
$15.6
$17.4
$19.1
$20.9
$22.6
10%CAGR
14.8%
12.2%
10.6%
10.3%
9.5%
8.5%
6.1%
4.8%
4.6%
3.5%
Source: eMarketer, August 2016, June 2017. E-bit Informacao, August 2017. Note: *as % of total Internet users. 16
19. consulting
Argentina’s 2017 eCommerce sales reached $7.3 Bn USD, with 35% annual growth
Top 10 Product/Service Categories in Argentina
(2016, in billions USD)
Argentina eCommerce revenues
(2015–2020F, in billions USD)
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Fashion
Personal health
Home and décor
Home appliances
Mobile phones
Books and suscriptions
Sports and leisure
Software
Groceries
Electronics
1.3%
% of Total
Retail Sales
Digital buyer
penetration*
1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.6%
- 54.0% 55.7% 56.1% 56.3% 56.5%
$3.4
$5.2
$7.3
$9.8
$12.6
$15.4
35%CAGR
$1.83
$0.81
$0.76
$0.59
$0.49
$0.19
$0.19
$0.18
$0.18
$0.16
Source: eMarketer, August 2016, June 2017. Cámara Argentina de Comercio EleCommercetrónico (CACE), Feb 2017. Note: *as % of total Internet users. 17
20. consulting
Fraud is still a critical deterrent for eCommerce in Latam
Chargeback
index on
invoiced order
volume
Rejected
orders
1.4%
-
0.8%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
1.9%
Latam
USA and Canada
Europe
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
8.0%
2.8%
4.8%
14.3%
4.6%
8.2%
10.1%
Top merchant categories affected by fraud
(2016)
General
Retail
Computer
electronics
Money
transfer
Airlines
Clothing
Other*
46%
16%
13%
9%
5%
11%
Source: CyberSource, 2016. RSA Security, 2016. Note: Other includes: travel, gaming, toys and jewelry. 18
21. consulting
Today’s eCommerce industry enjoys strong, affordable, capability providers
eCommerce capability stack
Delivery players
TransactionDiscoveryInfrastructure
Fulfillment enablers
Payment processors
Social inspirators
Aggregators
Search optimizers
Store creators
Platform providers
Source: Activate analysis, Big Commerce, Capterra, CB Insights, Crunchbase, Forbes, Fortune, Luma Partners, Marketing Mag, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Website Builder Expert 19
22. consulting
Asia leads eCommerce innovations alongside physical/digital spaces integrations
Engagement
Elements
Advanced Logistics and
Investment in Technology
Physical and Digital
Integration
Virtual reality store:
Alibaba Buy+
Robot delivery Smart supermarkets:
Alibaba’s Hema
Augmented reality
shopping game: TmallAerial drone delivery
Cashier-free mobile
stores: Moby Mart
Source: Activate, “Tech and Media Outlook 2018”. 20
23. consulting
Brick-and-mortar retail will consolidate its hold by integrating technology into in-store experiences
Customized service
and experience
Dynamic
pricing
◦ Ensures consistent competitive
prices with online retailers
◦ Minimizes showrooming
Digital price display
◦ Offers services such as product
information, recommendations
and seamless checkout
Smart mirror (e.g., Oak Labs)
Personalized
in-store targeting
Product information
and discovery
◦ Assists shopper with product
discovery both in-sore and online
(e.g., at home)
Augmented Reality mobile technology
(e.g., Lowe’s)
◦ Feeds recommendations and
promotions to consumers base on
shopping history, across channels
In-store apps powered by visible
light communication (e.g., MediaMarkt,
Edeka, Carrefour)
Source: Activate analysis, Amazon, Aptaris, Carrefour, eMarketer, Forbes, Lowe’s, MediaMarkt, New York Times, Oak Labs, Philipps, Retention Science. 21
24. consulting
Global tech eCommerce trends to follow in 2018
Rebirth of brick
and mortar
A new breed of retail stores
and in-person experiences,
rooted in digital, will begin to
replace outmoded retailers.
Mobile checkout
overtakes desktop
Wheter it’s buying products
and renewing services on
the go, checking out or
buying in-store, mobile
checkout will become a
convenience that no consumer
will want to do without
Disruption of B2B
eCommerce
The perfect storm is about
to hit the nearly 1 Trillion
$B2B eCommerce sector.
Machine learning
x eCommerce
A.I. will create the
perfect, customized customer
experience. 2018 will signal a
shift in mostretailers’ and
brands’ targeting strategy
A year of
marketplace maturity
Amazon is expected to
continue its relentless growth.
Like its counterpart Alibaba,
Amazon will be ubiquitous
element in every 2018
eCommerce business plan.
Voice will
change SEO
In 2018, consumers will
start speaking to devices
and using voice to interact
(conversational AI)
like never before.
Measuring digital
ads’ in-store ROI
Retailers will know how many
dollars in in-store sales are
attributable to each dollar of
marketing spend thanks to reliable
ROPO¹ Ratios attribution models
In-home
augmented reality
Augmented Reality (AR) will be huge
in 2018 as brands roll out features
that allow consumers to use their
mobile devices to visualize items in
their home or office before purchasing.
Source: Absolunet, “10 eCommerce Trends for 2017”. Note: ¹ Research online, purchase online. 22
25. consulting
Top retail and eCommerce events we recommend for 2018
24
Event designed to develop a response to the
shifting consumer, technology and business
model disrupting the global retail landscape.
London | September 10th
The world’s leading tech summit, showcasing
talks by the industry’s most prominent leaders.
Rancho Palos Verdes, CA | May 29-31
Canada's Leading Technology, Digital
Marketing and Retail Event.
Toronto | March 9-11
In 2018 the World Retail Congress will bring
together industry leaders to discuss innovation
and how to connect with today’s consumers.
Madrid | April 17-19
The Internet Retailer Conference and Exhibition is
one of the largest Internet conferences
covering the eCommerce and retail industry.
Chicago | June 5-8
The largest technology conference in the world,
its goal is to connect the technology community
with all industries, both old and new.
Lisbon | November 5-8
Source: SWS analysis, 2017.
26. Credits
Juan Saldivar
Paula Velasco
Ari Davidoff
Jose Vazquez
(Design)
Julio Sosa
info@risecapital.com | risecapital.com
Rise Capital is a global investment firm that focuses on making expansion-stage investments in Internet businesses in Emerging
Markets. We back industry-leading businesses run by world-class entrepreneurs who attack large addressable market opportunities.
Leveraging our experience as Emerging Market Internet operators and investors, we strategically guide these businesses to scale.
info@sws.ms | sws.ms
consulting
SWS is a hands-on consulting firm specialized in disruptive and results-oriented strategy. Our client list includes global players and local
industry leaders in search of solid future positions that embrace the powerful benefits the connected world can offer. Focused on both the
US Latino and Mexican markets, our strengths comprise proven expertise in telecom, media, marketing and digital space.
27. This presentation has been prepared by “JSW Servicios de Estrategia SC” (SWS) and/or its affiliates or
subsidiaries for the exclusive use of the party to whom SWS delivers this presentation. This presentation
was developed internally using public data. SWS has not independently verified the information contained
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completeness and reliability of the information contained in this presentation. Any estimates or projections
as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expenses, net income, and stock
performance) are based on the best judgment of SWS gathered from publicly available information as of the
date of this presentation. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved.
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