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Project X impact of social media on public safety

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Project X impact of social media on public safety

  1. 1. Project X Impact of Social media on Public SafetyArnout de Vries
  2. 2. 110 januari 2011M BoumanTNO Nieuwe huisstijl
  3. 3. Highly promoted…
  4. 4. 3 10 januari 2011But then… M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
  5. 5. Almost all flash mobs start as a jokeBut – can – have very violent outcomes:
  6. 6. How does a viral actually work? - Project Toasterhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAjJTebCh7A&feature=player_embedded
  7. 7. The day after: Project Clean-X
  8. 8. Crowdsourcing the riot starters
  9. 9. But days later… Silent march announced? Said to be a FB page with +40k „likes‟ and silent march is bound to become a catastrophe
  10. 10. And 3 months later another „joke‟ (GeenStijl.nl)
  11. 11. Role of the police: internet surveillance
  12. 12. Mayor of Haren: “My son noticed it on Facebook” “At the start of my installation (4 months ago) I said “there will be no Mayor on Twitter in Haren. I don‟t see the added value. And precisely social media became my largest case to deal with someone said to me today” Source: Volkskrant
  13. 13. “Governmental leaders don‟t understand social media” according to most citizens (source: Maurice de Hond)
  14. 14. Social media is here to stay, widely adopted and citizens expect a fast response (just like 112) (source: NIFV)http://www.dutchcowboys.nl/socialmedia/25897 http://www.nifv.nl/web/show/id=189276/contentid=3836
  15. 15. Role of the Dutch media is debatedhttp://weblogs.nos.nl/hoofdredactie/2012/09/22/haren-als-middelpunt-van-wereld/ http://nieuwereporter.nl/
  16. 16. International news
  17. 17. Safety & security expenses debated Just earlier this month:
  18. 18. Role of Facebook debated
  19. 19. Facebook is currently cleaning up…
  20. 20. Riot starters are online too…
  21. 21. How one thing leads to another… Role of Internet trolls debated How a „hoax‟ creator becomes trending… Freedom of speech?: Ibe Der Führer - FB pageIdentity theft and act as an authority:
  22. 22. Role of commercial exploitations debated…** Companies expanding the viral online for commercial purpose
  23. 23. Even when things turn bad…
  24. 24. Social crime solving:Social media analyses have already started (1) Haren HackathonBy Thomas Boeschoten http://nos.nl/op3/video/422583-de-tweets-over-haren-onder-de-loep.html http://www.tweetonderzoek.nl/hackaton-500-000-tweets-over-projectx-onderzoeken/
  25. 25. Analysis (2)by Ritzo ten Cate http://www.dutchcowboys.nl/facebook/25930
  26. 26. Analysis (3)by Harro Ranter http://twetrics.com/haren.php?id=177
  27. 27. Analysis (4)by Martijn Kriens
  28. 28. Analysis (5)by Obi4Wan Project-X Haren al drie maal meer buzz dan TVOH uitzendingRond 2:00 op 22 september 2012 is het aantal berichten gestegen tot meerdan 400.000. Dit komt overeen met meer dan 10 uitzendingen van TVOH.Dit is ongekend, pas vanaf 12:30 namen de berichten af, voornamelijkomdat iedereen wilde gaan slapen. Morgen zullen de berichten ongetwijfeldweer toenemen tijdens de nabeschouwing. Ondertussen zijn er ook alnieuwe Project-X events aangekondigd. http://www.obi4wan.nl/nieuws/project-x-groter-dan-tvoh.html
  29. 29. Post analysis (6) and real-time monitoring
  30. 30. 100000 140000 120000 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 17 18 19 20 21 21.01 21.02 21.03 21.04 21.05 21.06 21.07 21.08 21.09 21.1 21.11 21.12 21.13 21.14 21.15 21.16 21.17 21.18 21.19 21.2 21.21 21.22 21.23 22 22.01 22.02 23 24 25 26 Post analysis (6): Twitterverse from 17-26 sep Tweets (alle) Tweets (uniek)(>750k tweets)
  31. 31. Social network graph from 21h-22h Notice the influence of one (!) Hells Angels tweet at 21:28PM (>2500 RT‟s, excluding @‟s and keyword usage) RT and @ network
  32. 32. Media influence (total)Match on „dwdd‟ (incl „luckytv‟), „3fm‟ (incl. „timur‟), „trouw‟, „nos‟, „rtvnoord‟compared to total set of 50 media namesGraph shows only RT‟s and @‟s for these accounts/keywords
  33. 33. Media influence (zooming in prior to 21st)Notice the traffic when NOS announced the Project X safety preparations
  34. 34. Influence of authorities, media and totalGraph shows RT‟s and @‟s for these account/keyword sets, the total#is divided by 250 for comparisonNotice that the authorities and media follow the same pattern at thenight of the 21st
  35. 35. Closer examination of media and authoritypattern before the incidentGraph shows RT‟s and @‟s for these account/keyword sets, the total#is divided by 250 for comparisonNotice the patterns of total vs media and the increase of mediarelated traffic the night before
  36. 36. 100000 140000 120000 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 17 18 19 20 2121.0121.0221.0321.0421.0521.0621.0721.0821.09 21.121.1121.1221.1321.1421.1521.1621.1721.1821.19 21.221.2121.2221.23 2222.0122.02 23 24 25 26 Smart filtering on public safety themes Doden (alle) Tweets (alle) Geweld (alle) Hells Angels (alle)
  37. 37. 45000 Mobile tweets vs Web tweets (# and %)4000035000300002500020000 mob15000 webs100005000 0100%90%80%70%60%50% webs40%30% mob20%10% 0%
  38. 38. 0% 1% 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 2121.01 21.0121.02 21.0221.03 21.0321.04 21.0421.05 21.0521.06 21.0621.07 21.0721.08 21.0821.09 21.09 21.1 21.121.11 21.1121.12 21.1221.13 21.1321.14 21.1421.15 21.15 21.16 Geotagged tweets < 0.5%21.16 21.1721.17 21.1821.18 21.1921.19 21.2 21.2 21.2121.21 21.2221.22 21.2321.23 22 22 22.0122.01 22.0222.02 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 tunt haren total # % of total
  39. 39. Wordcloud of situation at 21h
  40. 40. Wordcloud of situation at 22h-> Notice the influence of a hoax about a girl said to be squeezed to death
  41. 41. 80-20 rule for core tweeps doesn‟t seem to apply (1/2) 50% of unknown/ new tweeps are joining throughout time
  42. 42. 80-20 rule for core tweeps doesn‟t seem to apply (2/2)Except for the night itself which shows a small core set of tweeps
  43. 43. Part of the riot starters network
  44. 44. Project X copycats …
  45. 45. Prior to Haren(different parts ofUnited States)
  46. 46. Canada
  47. 47. Germany
  48. 48. France
  49. 49. South Africa
  50. 50. After Haren:(Schiedam)
  51. 51. GoudaDe uitnodiging was gisteravondal aan bijna 30.000 mensenverstuurd. De bedoeling was omer net zon groot feest van temaken als in Haren. Mensenwerden dan ook aangespoordhun vrienden uit te nodigen.
  52. 52. Leeuwarden
  53. 53. Den Haag
  54. 54. Haarlem – Project H
  55. 55. Alkmaar
  56. 56. Amersfoort Op Twitter wordt opgeroepen tot een groot spontaan feest in Amersfoort. Dat zou mogelijk volgende week zaterdag worden gehouden, meldt RTV Utrecht. Ook worden er oproepen gedaan voor feesten in Vianen, Nieuwegein, Houten en plaatsen buiten de provincie. De burgemeester van Amersfoort, Lucas Bolsius, en de politie in die stad hebben via Twitter laten weten niet gediend te zijn van een dergelijk feest. Ze vrezen herhaling van de rellen in Haren.
  57. 57. ArnhemNoodbevel:
  58. 58. Amsterdam
  59. 59. Westvoorne
  60. 60. Spijkenisse
  61. 61. Uithuizen
  62. 62. Leiden
  63. 63. Asten
  64. 64. IJmuiden
  65. 65. Huizen
  66. 66. Dronten
  67. 67. Hoorn
  68. 68. Antwerpen(Belgium)
  69. 69. Project X or not?
  70. 70. Magdeburg(Germany)
  71. 71. And many others…
  72. 72. Several arrests for creating a tweet or FB page
  73. 73. Suicide after party invite mistake on FB
  74. 74. „Word of the year‟ and „download of the year‟ 2012
  75. 75. Just some of the issues in the Project X case:1. Do we see the right things on social media? • Complete and accurate vision? Equipped for early detection?2. Which set of eyes and brains should look into it? • Multi-disciplinary, experience of (new) media and online (criminal) phenomenon; New ways of working and thinking needed!3. How do we explain what we see? • E.g. reliability of messages and how to assess risks?4. How do we act in different phases of viral development? • Ranging from (early) removal of FB pages to influencing a large crowd online.
  76. 76. A call for real-time and smart INTELLIGENCEto be able to ACT on the dynamics of social media

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