“Asia’s Economic Outlook - European Opportunities” Rintaro Tamaki, Deputy Secretary-General & Chief Economist, OECD speaking on June 6 at the Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table during Asia Business Week Dublin 2014

1. ASIA BUSINESS WEEK DUBLIN
Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table
6 June 2014
What does the economic outlook inAsia mean for European
economies?
Rintaro Tamaki
Deputy Secretary-General & Acting Chief Economist, OECD
Kindly sponsored by:

2. Paris, 6 May 2014
Rintaro Tamaki
Deputy Secretary-General and Acting Chief Economist
WHAT DOES THE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN
ASIA MEAN FOR
EUROPEAN ECONOMIES?
Asia Business Week, Dublin - 6 June 2014

3. 3
Global growth is rebounding
Real GDP growth
Per cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OECD
BRIICS
World

4. 44
Trade is picking up in advanced economies
Contribution to world trade growth, goods and services, %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015
Euro area
Other OECD
Japan
China
Other emerging Asia
Average growth of world trade (1990-2007)
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.

5. 5
Contrasting performances
Real GDP growth
Per cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan
Korea
China
Other Asian EMEs
Asian economiesEuropean economies
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
France
Italy
Ireland
Euro area

6. 6
The challenges for Europe:
High unemployment and credit contraction
Unemployment rate
Per cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
Bank credit to non-financial private
corporations
Percentage change1
-12
-6
0
6
-12
-6
0
6
March 2012 - March 2013
March 2013 - March 2014
Note: February to February for Italy.
1. Adjusted for loan sales and securitisation.
Source: ECB; Bank of Italy.
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Greece

7. 7
The challenges for Europe: Deflation risks
Euro area headline inflation1
Per cent
1. Year-on-year change of harmonised index of consumer prices.
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.

8. 8
The challenges in emerging Asia:
Increased financial vulnerabilities
Credit growth to the private sector1
Per cent
1. Average annual growth between end-December 2006
and end-September 2013.
Selected shadow banking products in China
Per cent of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Average credit growth for US, euro area, Japan
Source: BIS; OECD calculations.
Source: CBRC; Kwan (2014); National Bureau of Statistics of
China; and China Trustee Association.
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Wealth management products Trust assets

9. 9
The challenges in Japan: Deflation and
fiscal sustainability
Core inflation1
Per cent
Gross government debt
Per cent of GDP
190
200
210
220
230
240
190
200
210
220
230
240
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
1. Excluding food and energy.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014
Initiation of “Q-squared”
easing by BoJ
VAT increase

10. 10
Boost potential growth is a priority
.
Potential output growth
Per cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China India Indonesia Korea Japan
2007 2014 2030 2060