Preliminary results of Beyond 4.0 (by Steven Dhondt and Michael Kohlgrüber

1. Inclusive Futures for Europe. Beyond the Impacts
of Industry 4.0 and Digital Disruption
Dr. Michael Kohlgrüber / Clara Behrend
TU Dortmund University – sfs (TUDO)
European School of Social Innovation (ESSI)
Global Conference on Social Innovation and Socio-Digital Transformation
28th of October 2019, Dortmund

2. The Scope of BEYOND 4.0
Creating data for the
analysis of future work
Creating data for the
analysis of future work
Understanding future
skills
Understanding future
skills
Historical perspectiveHistorical perspective
Regional perspectives on
digital transformation
Regional perspectives on
digital transformation
Company strategiesCompany strategies
Socio-economic
consequences
Socio-economic
consequences
Welfare, taxes and inclusive
wealth
Welfare, taxes and inclusive
wealth
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 8222293.

3. Work Package 6 – Understanding Future Skills
• Task 6.1 Understanding the
future skills and enriching the
skills debate
• Task 6.2 The demand side for
new skills – employer
requirements
• Task 6.3 The supply side –
consequences for vocational
education and training
• Task 6.4 Creating new
opportunities for inclusiveness
• Task 6.5 Creating an approach for
better data

4. Job profiles
Skills
EU
(regional
convergence)
Member
States
(VET systems)
Companies
(training)
Workers´
Demand
TheDemandSideTheSupplySide
Skills for the digital transformation
Conceptualization Calculation
Tasks
Organisations´Capabilities
Competences
Future Job
The Skills Framework

5. Conceptualization
• Framework to classify new skills for the digital transformation
• Based on literature review
• based on current frameworks (e.g. EQF, O*Net classification)
• refined in line with other project findings
• reflects, what kind of skill change is needed (e.g. reskilling, upgrading,
new skills)

6. Skill Categorization by PWC EU project „Skills for Smart
Industrial Specialisation and Digital Transformation“
Source: PWC (2018): Skills for Smart Industrial Specialisation and Digital
Transformation – Interim Report, p. 10.

7. Skills for future work
Digital Skills Analogous Skills
Management
and Entre-
preneurship
Quality,
risk and
safety
Social
Skills
Complex
and
creative
thinking
Self-
manage
ment
skills
Basic
Skills
Basic
digital
skills
Advanced
digital
skills
Skills for
researching/
developing
digital and cyber
technologies
Professional Skills (incl. skills from experience-based work)

8. Example for category definition
Complex and Creative Thinking
• In the context of future skills, complex and creative thinking confides a
set of skills very often discussed in publications dealing with skill
change as being very important and gaining in importance. It includes
cognitive skills, thinking techniques, innovation, creativity, problem
solving, analytical thinking, process knowledge, capability to think in
abstract ways/ see the whole process, transfer knowledge from one are
to another and similar skills of using one’s cognitive abilities in a
complex or creative way. Often these kinds of skills are required to be
combined with field-specific knowledge or professional skills.

9. Digital Skills
Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills
Skills for researching/
developing cyber and digital
technologies
Pfeiffer 2016
• Be able to describe an IT-
related problem to an IT-
professional in a precise
way (speak “IT-language”)
• Data safety and privacy
• Handle data in safe ways
White Paper (Rampelt et al
2019)
• Basic functional digital skills
• being able to use
digital devices
• Generic digital skills:
• Harness digital
devices to use,
interpret and create
numeric and literary
information sources
for communication
Pfeiffer 2016:
• Mediate and translate
between material and
virtual sphere
• Programming
• Maintain software
• Handle robotics
• Handling big data:
• Program algorithms
• Interpret big data based
information in a correct
way
• Relate them to the real
world in an adequate way
University of Phoenix
• Computational thinking
(ability to translate vast
amounts of data into
abstract concepts)
PWC
• Electronics
• Optics
• Photonics
• Engineering (incl. Systems
Engineering)
• Computer science
• Nanoscience
• Materials Science
• Statistics
• Design Methodology
• Operations Analysis
• Big data analytics
• Systems Analysis
• Business analytics Computer-
Aided Design (CAD)
• Multidisciplinary design
optimisation
• Cyber Technologies
• Computer Skills

10. Digital Skills
Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills
Skills for researching/ developing
cyber and digital technologies
Pfeiffer
• Be able to describe an IT-related problem to
an IT-professional in a precise way (speak
“IT-language”)
• Data safety and privacy
• Handle data in safe ways
White Paper (Rampelt et al 2019)
• Basic functional digital skills
• being able to use digital devices
• Generic digital skills:
• Harness digital devices to use,
interpret and create numeric and
lierary information sources for
communication and collaboration
with others
• Computational thinking, i.e. understanding
of what a device or code is doing (also in
terms of deep learning or AI) without
needing the ability to change this
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• ICT literacy
Key competences for life long learning (New
Skills Agenda
• Digital competence
Skills Panorama most requested skills
• Use a computer
• Use office systems and Microsoft office
CEEMET
• Cybersecurity skills
Pfeiffer 2016:
• Mediate and translate between material
and virtual sphere
• Programming
• Maintain software
• Handle robotics
• Handling big data:
• Program algorithms
• Interpret big data based information in a
correct way
• Relate them to the real world in an
adequate way
University of Phoenix
• Computational thinking (ability to translate
vast amounts of data into abstract
concepts and to understand data-based
reasoning)
Berger/Frey
• E-leadership skills:
• Encompassing both ICT and
management skills to adapt
businesses and organizations to
accommodate ICT technology,
• Finding new ways to conduct
business or identifying innovation
opportunities
PWC
• Electronics
• Optics
• Photonics
• Engineering (incl. Systems Engineering)
• Computer science
• Nanoscience
• Materials Science
• Statistics
• Design Methodology
• Operations Analysis
• Big data analytics
• Systems Analysis
• Business analytics Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
• Multidisciplinary design optimisation
• Cyber Technologies
• Computer Skills
• Programming
• Computational thinking
• Mathematics
• Microelectronics
• Process Layout & Optimisation
• Life-cycle analysis
• Scalability analysis
• Mobile app design and development
• Enterprise resource planning
• Artificial intelligence
• Complex business systems
• Big data analytics Computer-Aided Engineering
(CAE)

11. Digital Skills
Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills
University of Phoenix:
• New-media literacy: critically assess and
develop content that uses new media forms
and use them to persuade
• Virtual collaboration (ability to work
productively, drive engagement, and
demonstrate presence as a member of a
virtual tem
• Virtual collaboration (ability to work
productively, drive engagement, and
demonstrate presence as a member of a
virtual team
Berger/Frey
• User skills:
• Abilities to use ICT as tools in their
own jobs
• May involve generic software of
specialized ICT tools
PWC
Uses categorization of DigComp
Plus mentions the following skills in quality,
risk and safety category
• Computer-aided quality assurance (CAQ)
Kai Reinhardt
• Understand and interpret big amounts of
data
• Expertise for law and regulation
• Application of AI skills
• Advanced mathematical skills
CEEMET
• Software and hardware integration
• Focused programming and coding skills
• Analytical skills
DigComp
• Information and data literacy (incl.
browsing, searching for and filtering data,
info and digital contecnt ,evaluatuon,
managing)
• Communication and Collaboration
(interacting using dig tech, sharing,
engaging, collaboration, netiquette, manage
digital identity)
• Digital content creation (developing,
integration, copy right and licenses,
programming)
• Safety (protect devices, personal data,
health and well-being and the environment)
• Problem Solving (solve technical problems,
identify needs and techn. Responses,
creatively use digital technologies, identify
digital competence gaps)
eCF framework
• Problem management
• Cloud computing and virtualisation
• Security skills
• IT and platform architecture
• Web development
• Internet of Things
• Social Media
• Mathematical modelling and simulation
• Systems evaluation
• Systems integration
• Characterisation and analysis
• Physics
• Business analytics
• Internet of Things
Berger/Frey
• Practitioner skills:
• Develop
• Design
• Install
• Managae
• Market
…ICT systems
Kai Reinhardt
• Development of AI
E-CF framework (version 3.0)
• IS and business strategy alignment
• Architecture Design
• Application Design
• Systems Engineering
• Technology Trend Monitoring
Skills for researching/ developing
cyber and digital technologies

12. Digital Skills
Basic digital skills Advanced digital skills
Skills for researching/ developing
cyber technologies
E-CF framework (version 3.0)
• Product/Service Planning
• Application Development
• Component Integration
• Testing
• Solution Deployment
• Documentation Production
• User support
• Change support
• Service Delivery
• Problem Management
• Information and Knowledge Management
• Digital Marketing
• Information Security Strategy Development
• ICT quality strategy
• Education and training provision
• Risk management
• Process improvement
• Information Security Management
ecF framework
Sustainable development

13. Professional Skills
All occupation-specific, job-specific or field-specific skills
Pfeiffer
Knowledge from experience
Lebendiges Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer)
intutition
emotions/feeling from your guts
Feel for technology
Arbeitsvermögen (nach Pfeiffer)

14. Analogous Skills
Quality,
risk and
safety
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Quality standards
PWC
• Quality Management
• Quality control analysis
• Risk assessment
• Working conditions/health
and safety
• Emergency management and
response
• Industrial hygiene
• Equipment safety
• Ethics
E-CF framework (version 3.0)
• Information Security Strategy
Development
• ICT quality strategy
• Education and training
provision
Social Skills
Pfeiffer
• work effectively in teams (also
in Skills Panorama)
• Articulate knowledge in easy
way for different audiences
Future Skills (KcKinsey und
Stifterverband)
• Social intelligence (ebenso Uni
Phoenix)
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Communication in mother
tongue
• Communication in foreign
languages
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Communication
• Collaboration
• Social and cross-cultural skills
(ebenso Uni Phoenix)
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Use communication
techniques
• Assist customers/customer
service
• Teamwork principles/work as
a team
• Team buliding
Management
and Entre-preneurship
Pfeiffer
• Vermittlung und Förderung
von Innovation als
Querschnittsaufgabe
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Leadership
• Responsibility
Acatech
• Problemlösungs- und
Optimierungskompetenz
• Führungskompetenz
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Sense of initiative and
entrepreneurship
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Provide leadership
Complex and creative
thinking
Pfeiffer:
• Interpret information in the
right way and relate it to the
real world in an adequate way
• Identify better business
models building on new
information
• Be open to new things
• Identify innovations as such
• Knowledge from experience
• Lebendiges Arbeitsvermögen
(nach Pfeiffer)
• intutition
• emotions/feeling from your
guts
• Feel for technology
• Arbeitsvermögen (nach
Pfeiffer)
• React to changing tasks and
demands (auch bei Lamb et
al zu finden
• Tackle complexity
• Work and decide in complex
interconnected structures
• Work interdisciplinary
(combine knowledge and skills
from different fields of work)
(auch bei acatech, University
of Phoenix zu finden)
Self-Management Skills
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Productivity and accountability
Acatech
• Fähigkeit zur Koordination von
Arbeitsabläufen
• Dienstleistungsorientierung
• Eigentverantwortliche
Entscheidungen
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda)
• Learning to learn
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Project management
• Show responsibility
• Tolerate stress
• Work independently
Basic Skills
(Numeracy, Literacy,
Problem Solving)
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Information literacy
• Media literacy
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Mathematical competences
• Basic c. in science
• Basic c. in technology
Kai Reinhardt
• Mathematische und/oder
Lese-/Schreibkompetenz
CEEMET
• Basic literacy, numeracy and
digital skills should be available
for everyone
O*Net
• Active learning
• Active listening
• Critical thinking
• Learning strategies
• Mathematics
• Reading comprehension
• Science
• Speaking
• Writing

15. Analogous Skills
Quality,
risk and
safety
Social Skills
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Teamwork principles/work as
a team
• Team buliding
Future Skills (Stifterverband)
• The ability to negotiate
complex social relationships
(like caring for others or
managing cultural sensitivities)
(ebenso bei University of
Phoenix zu finden)
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Social and civic competences
• Cultural awareness and
expression
Management
and Entre-preneurship
Complex and creative
thinking
PWC
• Integration skills
• Design-Mindset
• Continuous experimentation
• Complex problem solving
• Creativity
• Systems thinking
Acatech
• Mitwirkung an
Innovationsprozessen
Future Skills (Stiferverband)
• Cognitive intelligence
• The ability to carry out task in
an unpredictable environment
University of Phoenix
• Novel & adaptive thinking:
coming up with solutions and
response beyond that which is
routine or rule-based
• Design mindset: ability to
represent and develop tasks
and work processes for
desired outcomes
(Prozessversrtändnis?)
• Cognitive load management
(filter information, maximize
cognitive functioning)
Self-Management Skills
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Manage time
• Demonstrate enthusiasm
PWC
Self-management:
• Persistence
• Passion, enthusiasm and
curiosity
• Sense of responsibility
• Stress tolerance
• Attention to detail
• Adaptability
• Ability to thrive on failures
• Balancing life and work
demands
• Self-discipline
• Self-control
• Proactivity
• Continuous improvement
orientation
• Active learning
• Alertness
• Judgement and decision
making
Basic Skills
(Numeracy, Literacy,
Problem Solving)
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Information literacy
• Media literacy
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Mathematical competences
• Basic c. in science
• Basic c. in technology
Kai Reinhardt
• Mathematische und/oder
Lese-/Schreibkompetenz
CEEMET
• Basic literacy, numeracy and
digital skills should be available
for everyone
O*Net
• Active learning
• Active listening
• Critical thinking
• Learning strategies
• Mathematics
• Reading comprehension
• Science
• Speaking
• Writing
E-CF framework (version 3.0)
• Risk management
• Process improvement
• Information Security
Management

16. Analogous Skills
Quality,
risk and
safety
Social Skills
Future Skills (Stifterverband)
• The ability to negotiate
complex social relationships
(like caring for others or
managing cultural sensitivities)
(ebenso bei University of
Phoenix zu finden)
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• English
• German
• Foreign languages for
international careers
PWC
• Interpersonal skills
• Verbal communication
• Written communication
• Presentation skills
• Public communication
• Virtual collaboration
Kai Reinhardt
• Fremdsprachenkenntnisse
• Mündliche und schriftliche
Ausdrucksfähigkeit
CEEMET
• Communication
• Cooperation
Management
and Entre-preneurship
Complex and creative
thinking
Kai Reinhardt
• Innovative thinking
• Willingness to/desire for
change
• Creativity
O*Net (nennt die Systems Skills):
• Judgment and decision
making
• Systems analysis
• Systems evaluation
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Creativity and innovation
• Critical thinking and problem
solving (ebenso Uni Phoenix,
CEEMET)
• Flexibility and adaptability
Skills Panorama most requested
skills
• Adapt to change
• Create solutions to
problems/develop strategy to
solve problems
• Think proactively
• Think creatively
• Adjust priorities/prioritise
tasks
Self-Management Skills
Basic Skills
(Numeracy, Literacy,
Problem Solving)
Lamb et al (21st century skills)
• Information literacy
• Media literacy
Key competences for life long
learning (New Skills Agenda
• Mathematical competences
• Basic c. in science
• Basic c. in technology
Kai Reinhardt
• Mathematische und/oder
Lese-/Schreibkompetenz
CEEMET
• Basic literacy, numeracy and
digital skills should be available
for everyone
O*Net
• Active learning
• Active listening
• Critical thinking
• Learning strategies
• Mathematics
• Reading comprehension
• Science
• Speaking
• Writing
E-CF framework (version 3.0)
• Risk management
• Process improvement
• Information Security
Management

17. Analogous Skills
Quality,
risk and
safety
Social Skills
PWC
Social skills
• friendliness/being respectful
with others
• Leadership
• Integrity
• Cooperation
• Multi-cultural/global
orientation
Kai Reinhardt
Kundenorientierung
Teamfähigkeit
• Work in a team
• Cooperation
• Work in a diverse environment
• Solve conflicts
• Human judgement
• Networking skills
O*Net
Social skills:
• Coordination
• Instructing
• Negotiation
• Persuasion
• Service orientation
• Social perceptiveness
WEF
• Training and teaching others
Management
and Entre-preneurship
Complex and creative
thinking
• Analytical thinking
• Problem solving
• Overarching departmental
thinking
• Constructive critical thinking
• Make strategic decisions
• Use present knowledge in new
context
• Anticipate trends using facts
Self-Management Skills
Basic Skills
(Numeracy, Literacy,
Problem Solving)

18. Calculations
• move the skills debates forward by linking the current debates
together (e.g. on polarization, upgrading and downgrading).
• Discuss the job-based approach and the task-based approach
• compare the gathered results with particular skills requirements
from ecosystems/regions (WP 4) and frontrunner companies (WP 8).

19. Based on Schmid, CEDEFOP, World
Congress on TVET, 13-16 May 2012
Scenario of Digital Skills Development
New digital jobs and
emerging occupations
New digital jobs and
emerging occupations
Digitised unchanged occupationsDigitised unchanged occupations
Digitising
Existing
Occupations
New Skills
High
Low
Up-skilling
Low HighNumber of Jobs
SkillsChange

20. Source: Hirsch-Kreinsen (Ed.), Akzeptanz von Industrie 4.0, 2019
Scenarios of changing skill demands

21. Innovation Triangle and its Interfaces:
Technology – Human – Organisation
Hirsch-Kreinsen et. al 2015, p. 7
Its the
interface that
matters!

22. Skills
demands
in
numbers
Macro-
economics
Company
level
Sectoral level
Regional
level
National
institutional
configuration
European
institutional
configuration
Determinant factors on skill demand

23. Skill surveys
OECD
Eurofound
WEF
Cedefop
Eurostat
European
Company
Survey
European
Working
Conditions
Survey
Survey
of Adult
Skills
Future
of Jobs
survey
Adult
Education
Survey
(AES)
Continuing
Vocational
Training
Survey
European
skills and
jobs survey
(ESJ)
Opinion
survey on
vocational
education
and training
in Europe

24. Skills debate – empirical results
EU from 1985 to 2014: Most EU countries either upgrading or polarisation:
• Ireland, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland: more or less upgrading since the
1970s
• Portugal: Some evidence of upgrading since 2011
• Germany: polarisation
• United Kingdom: Polarisation since 1990s
• Spain: polarisation since 2011
• Greece: polarisation trend
• Italy: downgrading (job creation at the bottom from 2011-2015 )
Sources: Warhurst et al. 2017, Gasparri et al. 2017

25. Skills debate – empirical results
Diversity across countries took place against a background of very
similar broad trends of structural change
• Deindustrialisation and dynamic service sector
had similar polarising effects everywhere
• Skill upgrading has occurred faster in more technological advanced
firms and industries (cf. Berman et al. 2017: 15)
• Manufacturing has mainly experienced a process of skills upgrading over the
last 15 years.
• In manufacturing, low skilled jobs are progressively automated in the process of
technological change (cf. Gasparri et al. 2017: 15)

26. Next Steps
• Defining potential data sources to quantify (most relevant) influence
factors
• Analysis of regional ecosystems and using skills related data for the
work package “Future Skills”
• Analysis of company strategies related data for the work package
“Future Skills”
• Desk research on employers´ requirements (demand side)

27. References
• Abel, J., 2018: Kompetenzentwicklungsbedarf für die digitalisierte Arbeitswelt. Düsseldorf: Forschungsinstitut für gesellschaftliche Weiterentwicklung.
• Acatech, 2016: Kompetenzentwicklungsstudie Industrie 4.0. Erste Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen. München.
• Autor, D., Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J., 2003: The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Harvard.
• Autor, D., 2015: Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of work-place innovation. In: Journal of Economic Perspectives. 3-30.
• Berman, E. & S. Machin, 2000: Skill-Biased Technology Transfer around the World. In: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 16, No. 3, Oxford: University Press, 12-22.
• Cedefop, E. (2018). Skills forecast: trends and challenges to 2030 (Cedefop Reference Series No. 108). Luxemburg. Retrieved from http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/4492
• CEEMET (Council of European Employers of the Metal, Engineering and Technology-based Industries), 2016: Digitalisation and the World of Work. Brussels: CEEMET.
• Dachs, B., 2018: The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy. Study – European Parliament, Science and Technology Options Assessment.
• Fernandez-Macias, E. & J. Hurley, 2016: Routine-biased technical change and job polarization in Europe. In: Socio-Economic Review, 1-23.
• Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M. A., 2013: The Future of Employment: How susceptible are Jobs to Computerization? University of Oxford.
• Foster-McGregor, N., Nomaler, Ö., & Verspagen, B., 2019: Job automation risk, economic structure and trade: a European perspective. UNU-MERIT Working-Paper.
• Gasparri, S. & A. Tassinari, 2017: Shaping industrial relations in a digitalizing services industry: Regional report for Southern Europe. Wien: Centre for Social Innovation.
• Hirsch-Kreinsen (Ed.): Akzeptanz von Industrie 4.0, 2019
• Hirsch-Kreinsen, Hartmut, 2017: Digitalisierung industrieller Einfacharbeit. Entwicklungspfade und arbeitspolitische Konsequenzen. In: Arbeit 26, Nr. 1, S. 7-32.
• Hirsch-Kreinsen, H., 2016: Digitization of industrial work: Development paths and prospects. In: J Labour Market Res, Springer: Berlin.
• Pfeifer, S./ Lee, H./Zirnig, C./Suphan, A., 2016: Industrie 4.0 – Qualifizierung 2025.
• PWC, 2018: Skills for Smart Industrial Specialisation and Digital Transformation – Interim Report for European Commission.
• Reinhardt, K., Brandt, K., Gerlach, C., Glöde, A., Limbach, J., 2018: Studie zum einfluss der künstlichen Intelligenz auf die Kompetenzen in Corporate Finance. HTW: Berlin.
• Schmid, CEDEFOP World Congress on TVET, 13-16 May 2012
• Staab, P./Prediger, L.J., 2019: Digitalisierung und Polarisierung. Eine Literaturstudie zu den Auswirkungen des digitalen Wandels auf Sozialstruktur und Betriebe. In: Hirsch-Kreinsen, H./Karacic, A. (Hrsg.): FGW-Studie.
• WEF (2016): Future of Jobs.
• Warhurst, C., Wright, S., Lyonette, C., 2017: Understanding and Measuring Job Quality. University of Warwick.

28. Thank you!