Keynote: Learning Analytics: The good, the bad, or perhaps ugly? Learning analytics provide institutions with opportunities to support student progression and to enable personalised, rich learning. With the increased availability of large datasets, powerful analytics engines, and skilfully designed visualisations of analytics results, institutions may be able to use the experience of the past to create supportive, insightful models of primary (and perhaps real-time) learning processes. While the opportunities and drawbacks of “Big Data” in the media might have been a bit over exaggerated, current research indicate several interesting but complex challenges. How can we filter the “good” from “bad”, or even ugly analytics: • What evidence is there that analytics actually helps learners to reach their potential? • How does the Open University UK use analytics to provide support for students and teachers? • How can we make learning more personalised, adaptive and meaningful, and what are the implications for Moodle? https://mootieuk15.moodlemoot.org/mod/page/view.php?id=34 Follow me on Twitter: @DrBartRienties

1. Learning Analytics: The good,
the bad, or perhaps ugly?
@DrBartRienties
Reader in Learning Analytics

2. What is learning analytics?
http://bcomposes.wordpress.com/

3. (Social) Learning Analytics
“LA is the measurement, collection, analysis and reporting of data about learners
and their contexts, for purposes of understanding and optimising learning and the
environments in which it occurs” (LAK 2011)
Social LA “focuses on how learners build knowledge together in their cultural
and social settings” (Ferguson & Buckingham Shum, 2012)

5. How can we filter the “good”
from “bad”, or even ugly
analytics:
1. What evidence is there that analytics
actually helps learners to reach their
potential?
2. How does the Open University UK use
analytics to provide support for students
and teachers?
3. How can we make learning more
personalised, adaptive and meaningful,
and what are the implications for
Moodle?

6. Q1: http://evidence.laceproject.eu/

7. 2) Linking learning design 150+ modules
with learning analytics
1) How does the OU use LA? OU Analyse
3) How do students choose
collaboration tools?
4) Learning analytics with
120+ variables

8. Q2 Learning Analytics at OU: OU
Analyse
• 15+ modules, 20K+ students
• 4 different analytics approaches
• Based upon Moodle/SAS data
warehouse
• Developed in house by Knowledge
Media Institute (Prof Zdrahal)

10. Important VLE activities
XXX1: Forum (F), Subpage (S), Resource
(R), OU_content (O), No activity (N)
Possible activities each week are: F, FS, N,
O, OF, OFS, OR, ORF, ORFS, ORS, OS, R,
RF, RFS, RS, S
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS

11. Start
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
Pass Fail No submit TMA-1time
VLE opens
Start
Activity space
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS

12. FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
Start
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
Pass Fail No submit TMA-1time
VLE opens
Start
VLE trail: successful
student
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS

13. FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
Start
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
FSF RFSOFS ORFN O SRFROF OR ORSORFS OS RS
Pass Fail No submit TMA-1time
VLE opens
Start
VLE trail: student who
did not submit

14. Action/activity type:
– Forumng
– Oucontent
– ouwiki
– URL
– Homepage
– Subpage
– …
Mapping module materials to activity
space

15. Probabilistic model: Markov chain
time
TMA1
VLE
start

16. Module VLE Fingerprint

17. Four predictive models
1. Case-based reasoning (reasoning from
precedents, k-Nearest Neighbours)
A. Based on demographic data
B. Based on VLE activities
2. Classification and Regression Trees (CART)
3. Bayes networks (naïve and full)
4. Final verdict decided by voting

18. Try the demo version yourself!
URL: http://analyse.kmi.open.ac.uk
Select Dashboard in the horizontal bar on top of the screen.
Username: demo, Password: demo
This fully anonymised version does not use data of any existing OU
module. Consequently, the STUDENT’S ACTIVITY RECOMMENDER (see
the Student view) referring to the module material could not be
included.

19. Module view

20. Student view

21. Study recommender

22. Q2/Q3 Learning analytics on meso
• 157+ modules, 60K+ students
• Learning design linked to
a. Student experience
b. Learning behaviour
c. Learning performance

26. Method – data sets
• Combination of two different data sets:
• learning design data (157 modules)
• student feedback data (51)
• VLE data (42 modules)
• Academic Performance (51)
• Data sets merged and cleaned
• 29537 students undertook these modules

27. Method – LD process
• Mapping of modules to create learning
design data by OU’s LD specialists
• Importance of consistency in mapping
process; validated in team and by Faculty
• Use of seven activity categories, derived
from five year study across eight HE
institutions

31. Assimilative Finding and
handling
information
Communicati
on
Productive Experiential Interactive/
Adaptive
Assessment
Type of
activity
Attending to
information
Searching for
and
processing
information
Discussing
module related
content with at
least one other
person (student
or tutor)
Actively
constructing an
artefact
Applying
learning in a
real-world
setting
Applying
learning in a
simulated
setting
All forms of
assessment,
whether
continuous,
end of
module, or
formative
(assessment
for learning)
Examples of
activity
Read, Watch,
Listen, Think
about,
Access,
Observe,
Review, Study
List, Analyse,
Collate, Plot,
Find,
Discover,
Access, Use,
Gather, Order,
Classify,
Select,
Assess,
Manipulate
Communicate,
Debate,
Discuss, Argue,
Share, Report,
Collaborate,
Present,
Describe,
Question
Create, Build,
Make, Design,
Construct,
Contribute,
Complete,
Produce, Write,
Draw, Refine,
Compose,
Synthesise,
Remix
Practice,
Apply, Mimic,
Experience,
Explore,
Investigate,
Perform,
Engage
Explore,
Experiment,
Trial, Improve,
Model,
Simulate
Write,
Present,
Report,
Demonstrate,
Critique

36. Findings: Patterns in LD
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
assimilative findinginfo communication productive experiential interactive assessment
Cluster 1: constructivist
Cluster 2: assessment-driven
Cluster 3: balanced-variety
Cluster 4: social constructivist

37. Constructivist
Learning Design
Assessment
Learning Design
Balanced-variety
Learning Design
Socio-construct.
Learning Design
VLE Engagement
Student
Satisfaction
Student
retention
Learning Design
40+ modules
Week 1 Week 2 Week30
+
Rienties, B., Toetenel, L., Bryan, A. (2015). “Scaling up” learning design: impact of learning design activities on LMS behavior and performance. Learning
Analytics Knowledge conference.

39. Cluster 1 Constructive

40. Cluster 4 Socio-constructive

41. M SD Assimilative
Finding
information Communication Productive Experiential Interactive Assessment total
VLE visits 123.01 66.35 .069 .334 .493** -.102 .327 -.106 -.435* .581**
Average
Time per
week 57.42 39.97 -.063 .313* .357* -.038 .341* -.159 -.253 .494**
Week-2 59.08 32.30 -.015 .072 -.057 -.087 .108 -.016 .03 .236
Week-1 84.97 46.55 -.138 .2 .077 -.033 .137 .025 .021 .19
Week0 133.29 103.55 -.131 .25 .467** -.116 0 .105 -.034 .377*
Week1 147.93 118.03 -.239 .608** .692** -.051 .13 -.041 -.175 .381*
Week2 151.44 118.16 -.27 .649** .723** -.029 .193 -.055 -.208 .381*
Week3 136.10 106.53 -.169 .452** .581** -.026 .284 -.048 -.262 .514**
Week4 165.03 210.88 -.184 .787** .579** .004 .054 -.055 -.253 .159
Week5 148.85 144.59 -.233 .714** .616** .046 .101 -.095 -.231 .272
Week6 130.41 117.27 -.135 .632** .606** -.022 .093 -.164 -.245 .308*
Week7 113.30 93.13 -.117 .545** .513** -.07 .132 -.181 -.185 .256
Week8 112.50 89.95 -.113 .564** .510** -.021 .119 -.172 -.227 .183
Week9 108.17 95.11 -.232 .682** .655** .013 .117 -.087 -.222 .212
Week10 105.27 99.97 -.156 .618** .660** -.024 .098 -.056 -.263 .331*

42. M SD
1
Assimilative
2
Finding
info
3
Communication
4
Productive
5
Experiential
6
Interactive
7
Assessment total
9 Overall I am satisfied with the quality
of the course 81.29 14.51 .253 -.259 -.315* -.11 .018 .135 -.034 .002
10 Overall I am satisfied with my study
experience 80.52 13.20 .303* -.336* -.333* -.082 -.208 .137 .039 -.069
11 The module provided good value for
money 66.86 16.28 .312* -.345* -.420** -.163 -.035 .197 .025 -.05
12 I was satisfied with the support
provided by my tutor on this module 83.42 13.10 .230 -.231 -.263 -.049 -.051 .189 -.065 -.1
13 Overall I am satisfied with the
teaching materials on this module 78.52 15.51 .291* -.257 -.323* -.091 -.134 .16 -.021 -.063
14 Overall I was able to keep up with
the workload on this module 78.75 11.75 .182 -0.259 -.337* -.006 -.274 .012 .166 -.479**
15 The learning outcomes of this
module were clearly stated 89.09 7.01 .287* -.350* -.292* -.211 -.156 .206 .104 -.037
16 I would recommend this module to
other students 74.30 16.15 .204 -.285* -.310* -.086 -.065 .163 .052 -.036
17 The module met my expectations 74.26 14.44 .267 -.311* -.381** -.049 -.148 .152 .032 -.041
18 I enjoyed studying this module 75.40 15.49 .212 -.233 -.239 -.068 -.1 .207 -.017 .016
19 Average learning experience 77.53 13.34 .277* -.308* -.346* -.106 -.103 .177 .017 -.036
20 Average Support and workload 81.09 9.22 .277* -.327* -.399** -.038 -.211 .139 .061 -.377**

43. M SD
1
Assimilative
2Finding
info
3
Communication
4
Productive
5
Experiential
6
Interactive
7
Assessment Total
21Registrations 559.05 720.83 .391** -.07 -.27 .00 -.15 -.03 -.25 -.07
22CompletedofRegisteredStarts 77.36 11.18 -.327* .12 .18 .12 -.03 -.06 .22 -.10
23PassedofCompleted 93.60 6.48 -.25 .04 .01 .11 .04 .02 .18 -.25
24PassedofRegisteredStarts 72.80 13.31 -.332* .10 .14 .13 -.01 -.05 .22 -.15
24Level 2.30 1.20 -.382** .398** .166* .00 .222** -.13 .11 .394**

44. Constructivist
Learning Design
Assessment
Learning Design
Balanced-variety
Learning Design
Socio-construct.
Learning Design
VLE Engagement
Student
Satisfaction
Student
retention
Learning Design
40+ modules
Week 1 Week 2 Week30
+
Rienties, B., Toetenel, L., Bryan, A. (2015). “Scaling up” learning design: impact of learning design activities on LMS behavior and performance. Learning
Analytics Knowledge conference.
Workload

46. Q3 Online acculturation/introduction
course Economics
• Economics/acculturation
• (Nearly) 1st year international students
• Distance Education
• -6 – 0 weeks before starting @uni
• Problem-Based Learning
• N=110

47. + e-book system

48. Dynamic interaction of sychronous and
asychronous learning
Giesbers, B., Rienties, B., Tempelaar, D.T., & Gijselaers, W. H. (2014). A dynamic analysis of the interplay between asynchronous and synchronous
communication in online learning: The impact of motivation. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, 30(1), 30-50. Impact factor: 1.632.

49. Intrinsic Motivation ↑ initial asynchronous contributions 
↑ in asynchronous and synchronous contributions
Giesbers, B., Rienties, B., Tempelaar, D.T., & Gijselaers, W. H. (2014). A dynamic analysis of the interplay between asynchronous and synchronous
communication in online learning: The impact of motivation. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, 30(1), 30-50. Impact factor: 1.632.

50. Introduction math/stats
• Business
• 1st year students
• Blended
• 0-12 weeks after start studying
• Adaptive learning/Problem-Based
Learning
• N=990

52. Diagnostic
EntryTests
Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 6Week 5
Quiz 1 Quiz 2 Quiz 3
Final
Exam
• Math-
Exam
• Stats-
Exam
--------------------------------------------- BlackBoard LMS behaviour -----------------------------------------
Week 7
Mastery scores
MyMathlab
Mastery scores
Practice time #
Attempts
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
MyMathlab
Practice time #
Attempts
Mastery scores
MyStatlab
Mastery scores
Practice time #
Attempts
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
Practice time
# Attempts
Mastery scores
MyStatlab
Practice time
# Attempts
Demogra-
phic data
QMTotal
Week 8
Learning Styles,
Motivation,
Engagement
Learning
Emotions
-Learning dispositions ------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------
Tempelaar, D., Rienties, B., Giesbers., B. (2015). In search for the most informative data for feedback generation: Learning Analytics in a data-rich context. Computers in
Human Behaviour. Impact factor: 2.067.

54. LMS prediction Not great 

55. E-tutorials prediction Substantial improvement!

56. Entry test and quizes Even better!

57. All elements combined:

58. Using track data we can follow:
-who is struggling?
-where?
-when?
-why?

60. Who is struggling in week 3?
What can be done about this?
• (Personalised) feedback
• (Personalised) examples
• Peer support
• Emotional/learning support

61. Is data from Virtual Learning Environment systems (e.g., Blackboard, Moodle)
useful for learning (analytics)? What else should we focus on to improve our
understandings of social interaction?
• “Raw” VLE data does not seem very
useful
• (entry)quizzes/formative learning
outcomes in combination with learning
dispositions provide good early-
warning systems

62. Implications for EURO CALL1. What evidence is there that analytics
actually helps learners to reach their
potential?
• http://evidence.laceproject.eu/
2. How does the Open University UK use
analytics to provide support for
students and teachers?
• OU Analyse
• Information Office Model
• Predictive Z-score
• Analytics4Action

63. Implications for EURO CALL3. How can we make learning more
personalised, adaptive and meaningful,
and what are the implications for Moodle?
• Need to incorporate learning design
• Individual differences? Learning
dispositions?
• Emotions?
• Ethics?

64. Learning Analytics: The good,
the bad, or perhaps ugly?
@DrBartRienties
Reader in Learning Analytics