Share of Search and Market Share - Ben Shepherd

Share of Search
A Practical Look at how it relates to Market Share
Ben Shepherd http://www.linkedin.com/in/shepherdieu

The original hypothesis
Source: https://www.contagious.com/news-and-views/share-of-search-the-new-most-important-metric-for-brands-google

Why is understanding this important?
Because it comes from Les Binet.

Binet’s work is important and highly insightfgul,
yet unfortunately commonly taken out of context
and used lazily by others

Binet’s view is share of search can be a predictive
metric on future share of market

Binet is pragmatic that this is an area
that is worthy of further investigation

I wanted to look at the relationship between
share of search and market share
• As an indicator of current market share
• Month by month movements
• Delayed movements
• And whether there’s any other external variables that seem to
impact a market.

Categories investigated
• Energy -
Utilities
• Health
Insurance
• Automotive –
New Car
Sales

All data is from Australia.

1. Energy

Energy company search volume appears to follow
category based peaks and troughs over the last 12
months
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
18/8/19 18/9/19 18/10/19 18/11/19 18/12/19 18/1/20 18/2/20 18/3/20 18/4/20 18/5/20 18/6/20 18/7/20
AGL Energy: (Australia) Origin Energy: (Australia) EnergyAustralia: (Australia) ErgonEnergy: (Australia)
Alinta Energy: (Australia) Red Energy: (Australia) Aurora Energy: (Australia)
Source: Google Trends, extracted 15 August 2020

Energy– search share by week
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AGL Energy: (Australia) Origin Energy: (Australia) EnergyAustralia: (Australia) ErgonEnergy: (Australia)
Alinta Energy: (Australia) Red Energy: (Australia) Aurora Energy: (Australia)

Comparing Market Share (SOM) to share of
search (SOS) across energy retailers
Brand SOM SOS Percentage Points Difference
Origin Energy 32% 28% -4%
AGL 24% 30% 6%
EnergyAustralia 18% 18% 0%
Ergon Energy 11% 5% -5%
Alinta Energy 6% 10% 4%
Red Energy 5% 7% 2%
Aurora Energy 4% 2% -2%
Top 7 energy retailers – Share of Search and Market Share
(relative to top 7 only) Last 12 months
• Market leaders AGL and Origin Energy are
within a 70-80% accuracy range
• Ergon and Alinta are outliers – Alinta has a
much higher SOS than market share, and
Ergon the opposite.
• It needs to be noted that AGL is a highly
traded stock on the ASX and this would
have some influence on its search volume.

Limitations on Energy as a category to analyse
• Weekly or monthly share of sales data is not publicly available
• Looking at energy there is a reasonable link between current
market share and current search share.
• No energy retailer appears to have seen a spike either in
volume or share in a material way over the last 12 months, that
could influence share in 2021 or beyond.

2. Health Insurance

Significant health insurance search volume is driven by
2 companies over the last 12 months – Bupa and
Medibank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
18/8/19 18/9/19 18/10/19 18/11/19 18/12/19 18/1/20 18/2/20 18/3/20 18/4/20 18/5/20 18/6/20 18/7/20
medibank: (Australia) AHM: (Australia) Bupa: (Australia) HBF: (Australia)
HCF: (Australia) NIB: (Australia) GMHBA: (Australia) Australian Unity: (Australia)

Health Insurance – search share by week
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
18/8/19 18/9/19 18/10/19 18/11/19 18/12/19 18/1/20 18/2/20 18/3/20 18/4/20 18/5/20 18/6/20 18/7/20
Health Insurance - search share by week
medibank: (Australia) AHM: (Australia) Bupa: (Australia) HBF: (Australia)
HCF: (Australia) NIB: (Australia) GMHBA: (Australia) Australian Unity: (Australia)

Comparing Market Share to share of search (SOS)
across Health Insurance retailers
Top 7 health insurance retailers – Share of Search and Market
Share (relative to top 7 only) Last 12 months
• Market leaders Medibank and Bupa are within a
10-15% accuracy range.
• The Medibank figure is a sum of both Medibank
and AHM (AHM is owned by Medibank)
• Bupa Search Share is significantly higher than
market share – unanswered question is why
• All other competitors are reasonably close in
terms of market share and share of search.
• The category seems to have externally led
fluctuations in volume – September, January,
March and June peaks, with drops in July and
also around Christmas.
Brand Market Share SOS Perentage Points difference
Medibank 31.40% 28% -3.4%
BUPA 30.70% 35% 4.3%
HCF 12.51% 12% -0.51%
NIB 9.9% 11% 2.1%
HBF 9.10% 8% -1.1%
Australian Unity 3.39% 4% 0.61%
GMHBA 2.80% 2% -0.80%

Limitations on Health as a category to analyse
• Weekly or monthly share of sales data is not publicly available
• Looking at health insurance there is a reasonable link between
current market share and current search share.
• No health retailer appears to have seen a spike either in
volume or share in a material way over the last 12 months, that
could influence share in 2021 or beyond.
• Health Insurance as a category is seeing significant structural
headwinds, these could be influencing search behavior.

3. Automotive

Automotive is a good category to analyse
• Monthly sales data is available.
• Highly considered purchase.
• Internet is commonly accepted as primary research source of
information.
• 9 competitors to look at closely.

Automotive is a remarkably stable category when
it comes to search behaviour
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2019 – Share of Search across selected 9 brands
Toyota: (Australia) Mazda Motor Corporation: (Australia) Hyundai Motor Company: (Australia)
Mitsubishi Motors: (Australia) Ford Motor Company: (Australia) Kia Motors: (Australia)
Nissan: (Australia) Volkswagen: (Australia) Holden: (Australia)

Automotive sales tend to peak industry wide as
opposed to specific OEM’s
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2019 - New Car Sales by Month by brand
Source: VFACTS, extracted 15 August 2020

And market share remains reasonably stable on
the whole across 2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2019 - Market Share by Month - Selected Auto Brands
Source: VFACTS, extracted 15 August 2020

Comparing Market Share (SOM) to share of
search (SOS) across Automotive manufacturers
Brand SOM SOS Difference (percentage pts)
Toyota 27.76% 22% -5.6%
Mazda 13.17% 11% -1.9%
Hyundai 11.62% 8% -3.7%
Mitsubishi 11.23% 7% -3.8%
Ford 8.54% 20% 11.0%
Kia 8.30% 6% -2.6%
Nissan 6.82% 10% 3.0%
Volkswagen 6.74% 3% -3.9%
Holden 5.82% 13% 7.5%
Top 9 Automotive manufacturers – Share of Search and Market
Share (relative to top 9 only) 2019 full year
• Ford and Holden are outliers – massively
inflated search share compared to market
share.
• Kia, VW, Hyundai and Mitsubishi are
significantly under represented in search
of search compared to market share.
• For automotive an annualized view of
share of search compared to share of
market does not appear to be that useful.
• For the record, 2018 search share by
month was very similar to the same
periods in 2019 – very minimal movements
if any.
Source: VFACTS, Google Trends, extracted 15 August 2020

What if we looked closer at the monthly
changes by OEM?

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Toyota
SOM SOS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mazda
SOM SOS
• Search Share stable across year
• Market Share increases April/May, July and
October
• No relationship evident – although Toyota has
largest share of search and overall market share
• Search share stable across first half of year,
then drops marginally from July onward.
• Market share drops throughout year but sees
more pronounced drop in October

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Hyundai
SOM SOS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mitsubishi
SOM SOS
• Market Share increases to October, drops from
13% to 9% in 3 month window
• No hint from search volume that a drop was
coming – search share had been stable for 24
months
• Market Share very volatile – big peaks in March,
September and big share growth in November
and December
• Search volume stable for past 24 months

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Kia
SOM SOS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Nissan
SOM SOS
• Search Share increases from June
• Market Share looks to increase from June
• Small increase in share of search in 2019 (flat in
2018) – could be a predictor of 2020 fortunes.
• Nissan a rare brand with higher share of search
than share of market.
• Share of search stable across 2018 and 2019
• Market share on the increase from April of 2019
to end of year

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
VW
SOM SOS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Ford
SOM SOS
• Share of Search is 2.5x Share of Market
• Both metrics stable across year
• VW Share metrics closely aligned
• 1 point search share increase in September
followed by 1 point market share increase in
October

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Holden
SOM SOS
• Search share stable
• Market share fluctuated, down marginally.
• Gap between the two widened as the year went
on.

So what does it all mean?
• It’s hard to tell.
• For one, a sizeable chunk of search traffic for many of these brands
could be existing owners performing ‘navigational search’ to book a
repair.
• Automotive has good data to analyse but the relationship between
search share and market share is difficult to find.
• Even looking back to 2018 there doesn’t appear to be 12+ month
lagging benefits from an increased search share (that would yield in
market sales in 2019) as the search dynamic remains extremely
stable.
• When there is an auto who has seen big changes in sales across
months in 2019 (such as Kia and Mitsubishi), there doesn’t seem to
be any previous search share data that suggests these are linked.

Moving forward
• Analysing share of search is a prudent metric for any marketer
• Be cautious about what it tells you about 1. future events, 2. efficacy of current
campaigns, 3. consumer sentiment
• From the categories analysed, search share and volume is much more stable
than advertising and marketing spend/activity – which suggests external
variables have significant impact on how consumers interact with the category.
• Do not fall victim to buying more paid search to boost share – share of search is
unrelated to paid search spending, it’s an indicator of salience and recall when
it comes to someone using a search engine.
• It cannot capture traffic that comes through sources other than search – for
instance direct traffic, or referred through non search sources. Having robust
data on this would be helpful for future analysis.

What about another data source? Can it tell
us anything around what drives automotive
purchases (and give us some clues as what
may influence other categories?)

Do these two sources look linked? The blue is new car
sales per month for the 9 earlier selected brands.
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Total Sales - Selected Brands
Series1 Series2
Source: RMR ANZ consumer confidence, Google Trends, extracted 15 August 2020

Maybe.
The other data series is the monthly
ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence
index.

Let’s look at the ANZ/RMR index and sales
volume by OEM, and look at the index
against sales volume, and the index against
market share.

Toyota
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
JanuaryFebruary
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Toyota
Series1 Series2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Toyota SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
Note: Orange represents ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index
• Sales volume increases in June as consumer
confidence increases in May/June.
• Sales volume drops in July and holds stable as
economic confidence drops.
• Market share is stable across the year – so any
drops in volume are mirrored by market wide drops
in total sales volume.
• Market share appears unaffected by consumer
confidence increases or decreases – very stable.
• Toyota market share appears unaffected by
economic confidence levels.
Source: RMR ANZ consumer confidence, VFACTS, extracted 15 August 2020

Mazda
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
JanuaryFebruary
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mazda
Series1 Series2
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mazda SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
• Sales volume increases in June marginally as
consumer confidence increases in May/June,
sales increase not as high as confidence increase
• Sales volume drops in July and continues to drop
to December.
• At start of year market share is highest, even when
consumer confidence is at relatively low levels.
• As consumer confidence jumps post Easter, Mazda
market share doesn’t move.
• In the back half share drops significantly, as consumer
confidence drops.
• Erosion in market confidence in back half could be
linked to Mazda share erosion during same time.

Hyundai
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
JanuaryFebruary
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Hyundai
Series1 Series2
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Hyundai SOV SOM
ANZ SOM
• Volume remains stable June through October, but
drops in November and December
• Hyundai has strongest market share in October,
following 2 straight months of large economic
confidence drops.
• However, confidence bounces in November and
Hyundai drops in response, with another drop in share
in December.
• Some link appears between lower economic
confidence and higher Hyundai market share.

Mitsubishi
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
JanuaryFebruary
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mitsubishi
Series1 Series2
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Mitsubishi SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
• Sales volume is choppy throughout the year • Mitsubishi relationship with consumer confidence is
fascinating. It has its’ highest market share when
economic confidence is at its lowest, and its lowest
share when economic confidence is at its highest.
• In 2019 – high Mitsubishi share meant a bearish
economy, low Mitsubishi share meant a bullish one.
• In a down economy, Mitsubishi is more considered and
more purchased than in an optimistic one.

Kia
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Kia
Series1 Series2
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Kia SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
• Steady increases by units Jan to June
• Drop in July, then a steady increase August
through December.
• Kia is like Mitshubishi – it has lower share in good
economic periods, higher share in bad economic
periods.
• In the last quarter of 2019, Australian economic
sentiment was at low levels, Kia market share was at
record highs.
• In a down economy, more people in market will
consider and buy a Kia.

Nissan
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Nissan
Series1 Series2
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
Nissan SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
• Sales volume drops in July and holds stable as
economic confidence drops.
• Nissan is similar to Kia, Mitsubishi, in that lower
economic confidence tends to create higher market
share.
• When economic confidence increases, share doesn’t
appear to increase.
• Would suggest the Nissan buyer is impacted by
economic conditions – as the economy drops in
confidence, the Nissan brand appears more
appealing..

VW
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
VW
Series1 Series2
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
January
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
AugustSeptem
ber
OctoberNovem
berDecem
ber
VW SOM ANZ
ANZ SOM
• VW sales volume is stable throughout the year,
outside of the June spike that the category
experiences.
• VW market share appears stable in the face of
economic changes. It hovers at 6-7% all year
despite reasonable changes in the ANZ index.
• VW buyer appears unaffected by broader
economic ebbs and flows.

What does it tell us?
• Toyota and VW appear unimpacted by the economy – they keep
their share and do not appear to be more attractive in a good/bad
economy.
• Mazda appears to be impacted negatively in a bad economy, and
positively impacted in a good one. Would suggest for buyers Mazda
is a brand they will buy if they’re confident economically.
• Mitsubishi, Nissan and Kia are impacted positively in a bad
economy, and impacted negatively in a good one. This suggests
when economic confidence is low, buyers may ‘trade down’ to these
brands, and when confidence is high, they will trade up to brands
like Mazda.

The RMR/ANZ confidence index is an indicator
worth more investigation in advertising and media
• From analysis completed, there are reasonable links between the
consumer confidence index and sales and share movements in both
automotive and also consumer finance (credit cards, personal loans).
• It isn’t a sign to focus advertising activity only on high confidence times,
or confidence spikes, but it is a data point which suggests that some
brands are more impacted by external economic variables than others.
• In automotive, it appears some brands are, in fact, beneficiaries of lower
economic sentiment.
• For marketers and agencies, close following of the RMR/ANZ index could
help inform communications dependent on economic confidence at the
time – perhaps to cover more price led features in lower economic
confidence periods, and more feature and quality benefits in higher
economic periods.

RMR/ANZ data is free and easily available
• For weekly data, just visit
http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/consumer-
confidence/consumer-confidence
• Monthly can be found back to 2010 here -
http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/consumer-
confidence/roy-morgan-business-confidence

If you enjoyed this, I have a book coming out in
late 2020, it’s called …
Advertising & Media
Everything you wanted to know about …
… but were too afraid to ask.

Share of Search and Market Share - Ben Shepherd

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