Media Implications of COVID-19

O N E S T E P A H E A D
Welcome
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W H O I S P R E S E N T I N G ?
Presenter
Ben Shepherd
Chief Media Officer

Past/Present/Future
The media implications of the current environment

O N E S T E P A H E A D
What we will be covering today
Past
Present
Future
The Comfortable Normalcy of a sluggish economy
Jan 1 - March 11
Alert > Alarmed to Alarmed > Alert
March 12 – June 30
Adjustment and Adapting
July 1 - onwards

That escalated
quickly, didn’t it?

“What’s going on in China?”
“Now Wuhan is in lockdown – WTF?”
The first Australian case
“What’s the fuss, isn’t it just like the flu?”
“I can’t get toilet paper – how crazy!”
“Work have asked us to work from home.”
“This is really serious … “

Source: Google Analytics, April 2020

I N R E L A T I O N T O M E D I A
Where have we been?
Where are we now?
Where are we going?

T H E M E O N E
Media consumption retained the same
main headlines as 2019
Continued growth
of SVOD.
TV consumption in decline. Digital remains ubiquitous.
1 2 3

T H E M E O N E
And like 2019, the ad market was in recession
across January and February
Source: Mumbrella, March 2020

NBA
MLB
NHL
EPL
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
SUPER RUGBY
F1 GRAND PRIX
OLYMPICS
WIMBLEDON

Cancellations of events
Restrictions of movement
100-200% increase in Coronavirus search intent
Media consumption remained as normal
Foot traffic saw small immaterial declines
Alert not alarmed
Phase 2.1: March 12-16

Limited restrictions
Footy
Search interest declines
TV consumption up 10-20%
Foot traffic down 25-35%
Retail, automotive, discretionary categories all bracing
Alert or alarmed?
Phase 2.2: March 17-22

Morrison changed the tone 9pm Sunday 22 March
Footy gone
Search interest spikes
TV consumption up 10-20%
Foot traffic down 70%+
Road traffic down 30%+
Alarmed.
Phase 2.3: March 22-March 30

Source: Roy Morgan, April 2020

Source: Roy Morgan, April 2020
0
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2020
March 8

0
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence average by month – 2008/2009
2009 2008
Rudd stimulus 2009
We are here 2020
Lehman 2008 Auto bailout 2008
Bank bailout 2008

Centrelink search volume
As economic reprocussions hit fast, Centrelink search volume had a one
day increase of 1000% on 22nd March, after steadily rising across March

A new world of considerations
Reduced movement
Increased home time
No travel/events/
shared experience
Confusion and uncertainty
Rise in unemployment

Reduced movement Media channel recalibration.
Increased TV consumption.
Many. advertising messages
seem incongruent.
Impact is affected.
Reduced discretionary spend.
Increased home time
No travel/events/
shared experience
Confusion and uncertainty
Rise in unemployment
A new world of considerations

• TV viewership is up across all demos.
• +35 much higher than -35.
• News programming is dominating.
• Programming production has been affected – huge
flow on affects to TV in H2.
• SVOD consumption so high its breaking the NBN.
• BVOD seeing high single digit increases since
increased social restrictions.
Video - headlines

Linear TV is increasing in terms of hourly consumption
Source: Oztam, March 2020
For 35+, an increase throughout the day and into the evening. Under 35’s remain
steady. This bucks years of downward trends on live viewing.

Netflix, Stan – Search Volume
Last weekend saw Netflix reach its highest search volumes in the last 5 years in Australia. Stan has also
seen a 60-80% increase in search volume over the past month, as SVOD services capture an even greater
share of TV eyeballs.
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1/4/20
netflix: (Australia) Stan: (Australia)

9Now, 7Plus, Tenplay – Search Volume
Queries for the main BVOD services are up and down – no clear trends evident in
search volume. However, Oztam VPM data shows 10-15% increases in BVOD usage.
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3/3/20 4/3/20 5/3/20 6/3/20 7/3/20 8/3/20 9/3/20 10/3/2011/3/2012/3/2013/3/2014/3/2015/3/2016/3/2017/3/2018/3/2019/3/2020/3/2021/3/2022/3/2023/3/2024/3/2025/3/2026/3/2027/3/2028/3/2029/3/2030/3/2031/3/20 1/4/20
9Now: (Australia) 7Plus: (Australia) tenplay: (Australia)

BVOD sees 30% increase in 3 week period
Source: Oztam, April 2020
BVOD consumption as measured by Oztam increased dramatically week on week
from March 14 onwards.

• It’s a wait and watch situation for the next 3-6 months.
• Retail – impacted.
• Transit – impacted.
• Airport – impacted.
• Large Format – impacted.
• Street Furniture – impacted.
• Out of Home likely to go backwards 30% in CY20,
recover in 21
Out of Home - headlines

Train Timetable – Search Volume (90 days)
Train timetable search volume an average was consistent from January to the start of March,
however it has dropped 75-85% since then as less and less people move about in public.
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Westfield – Search Volume
Search terms for the shopping centre operator ‘Westfield’ have also sharply dropped since
March 14 – down 65% to 1 April 2020.
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City movement – Traffic density
Source: ABC News, from Google, April 2020
Search terms for the shopping centre operator ‘Westfield’ have also sharply dropped since
March 14 – down 65% to 1 April 2020.
Melbourne Sydney

City movement – reduction in activities
Source: ABC News, from Google, April 2020
All activities are seeing drops aside residential time spent – significant in retail, recreation and transit.

• Events are postponed for the foreseeable future.
• SITG and T20 WC planned for October.
• Concert, sports, exhibitions, arts, theatre – off indefinitely.
• Ripples of current activity will impact sponsorship and events
through to mid 2021.
Sponsorship/Events - headlines

• Traffic is up.
• Demand down.
• Suitability is a nuanced consideration.
• Connectivity/social platforms seeing much higher
engagement (on top of already high engagement)
Addressable/Biddable - headlines

“For the first time in
history, you’re probably
going to have the
highest point of media
usage in the history of
the United States and
the lowest point of
advertising in the US.”

• News is more important than ever.
• Digital is best suited to deliver in real time.
• Expect significant reduction in print advertising in C20 –
likely to be a survival challenge for the sector
Print - headlines

Source: The Guardian, April 2020

Source: The Australian, April 2020

• Radio reporting consumption increases
• Spotify up approx. 15% according to company claims
• Podcasts continue to push mainstream.
• Audio likely to be an important source of companionship and
entertainment next 3 months.
Audio - headlines

Q420
Walk
Q121
Walk Fast
Q320
Crawl

Q420
Walk
Q121
Walk Fast
Q320
Crawl
• Advertising will recover in line with consumer
confidence as well as citizen movement. Both are
inter-dependant.
• Q3 will be softly softly approach … what to say,
when to say, how to say it, where to say it.
• Home based media will continue to be up
on normal levels – TV, SVOD, social media,
communications
• Ambient media will be dependent on citizen
movement.
• Advertising will continue to be tactical and
immediate demand driven.
• Q4 2019 was a big change in retail rhythm – Xmas
starting in October, retail peaking at Black Friday,
December seeing a pullback in advertising.
• Q4 is biggest advertising/media quarter for every
format – out of home, retail, cinema in particular
rely on this for their year.
• Q4 is really an unknown – all depends on how
much society returns to normal in terms of
movement, and in terms of appetite to purchase –
and how this impacts retail in particular.
• Media will keep being tactical – Q4 is tactical
generally, dominated by retail and CPG … all
leading up to key moments across November and
December.
• The tactical competition will be intense.
• Beginning of the bounce

Adspend is unlikely
to return to pre
COVID levels before
end of CY2021

What changes will
we see from COVID?

Is it the role of advertisers to
fund the free media?
Who are the long term
beneficiaries of any
behavioural change? Non ad
funded media?
What channels and activities
don’t get turned back on?

What happened
during and post
GFC?

2021
Too early to call.
Likely to take
2-3 years to bounce
back from the losses
of 2020.

New
normal
Consolidation
Focus on
working media
Less annualising
Mandate on
efficacy
Flexibility

Media Implications of COVID-19

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