Sarijaya Securities

1. Presented By : Hery Gunawan
Muhamad
PT. Sarijaya Permana Sekuritas
Retail Division
Yogyakarta Branch
Gedung AA YKPN
Jl. Langensari No 45 Balapan Yogyakarta 55222
Phone (0274) 550503 Fax. (0274) 550538

2. DEPKEU
BAPEPAM
KSEI KPEI
KPEI
BEJ BES
(LKP) (LPP)
(LPP)
ANGGOTA BURSA/PE
PERUSAHAAN NON AB
INVESTOR

3.  How the Market
work
 Apakah ‘Price’ ?
 Apakah ‘Market’ ?

4. BID ABCD
Harga OFFER Jual saham
ABCD:
2075 185 • Rp 2050,
2050 200 200 lot
• Rp 2075,
1003 2025 185 lot
Beli saham ABCD: 585 2000
• Rp 2025, 23 lot
320 1975
• Rp 2000, 585 lot
• Rp 2025, 980 lot Jika Jual saham ABCD di Rp 2025
• Rp 1975, sebanyak 3 lot,
320 lot maka Bid tinggal 1000 lot.
 Time and Price Priority

6. ABCD Motivasi?
BID Harga OFFER
2075 185
2050 200
1003 2025
BUYERS
585 2000 SELLERS
320 1975
Buyers dan Sellers selalu dalam keadaan
Motivasi ? Fakta!
konfrontasi. Buyers ingin murah, sellers
ingin mahal. Sesekali ada kompromi, saat
buyers/sellers mengalah.

7. If you say I’ve made a mistake on the portfolio
construction why it is still profit?
 The right trading strategy does not always
come with profit
 And the profit does not always come with the
right trading strategy…
”Lucky” profit will not be consistent!

8.  Business risk – Carried by the uncertainty of the
core business of the company
 Liquidity risk – the risk of the low trading activity of
the secondary market of the stock, and high bid-
offer spread

9.  Fundamental Analysis
◦ Select the market leader of each industry by comparing
the financial ratio with the performance of its industry
◦ Winning company not always be the winning investment,
so we calculate the fairness of its pricing
◦ Company selected must be supported by steady growth
of its operational and profitability measures

10.  Technical Analysis
◦ To optimize the opportunity of each Rupiah invested,
Investment decision must be made to the stocks that
moves in the most powerful uptrend
◦ The decision based on historical study of price
movement and measures the probability of its movement
by several technical indicator
◦ Technical analysis says :”We know where we stop
when we are wrong ”

11. 1. Market price discounts everything : TA do not
concern themselves with reasons why price rise or
fall. This is because market participants act upon
expectations or upon information not yet published.
2. Price move are not entirely random and
move in trend : Market are “efficient”
3. Human nature is constant : TA are able to
watch what is happening on a price chart, interpret
how buyers and sellers are reacting to a situation
and to frame a view about likely directions of prices.

12. 1. Trend Analysis
2. Price & Volume Analysis
3. Pattern Analysis
4. Indicator Analysis

13. 1. Up Trend
2. Down Trend
3. Non Trend/Sideways
Major Middle &Minor Trend, Commitment
Buying/Selling, Support/Resistance,
Note : Time Frame

14. Volume (26,052,500)
40000
30000
20000
10000
x10000
BMRI (2,425.00, 2,450.00, 2,375.00, 2,425.00, +25.0000) 3050
3000
100.0% 2950
161.8% 161.8% 2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
61.8% 2650
100.0% 2600
50.0% 2550
2500
38.2% 2450
61.8%
2400
100.0% 50.0%
23.6% 2350
38.2%
2300
23.6% 2250
2200
0.0% 0.0% 2150
2100
61.8% 2050
2000
50.0% 1950
1900
38.2% 1850
1800
1750
23.6%
1700
1650
1600
1550
0.0%
1500
1450
1400
15 22 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 26 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12
June July August September October November December 2007 February March

15. TLKM 11000
10900
10800
10700
10600
10500
10400
10300
10200
10100
10000
9900
9800
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
9100
9000
8900
8800
8700
8600
8500
8400
Volume (10,186,000), Stochastic Oscillator (65.0000) 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
13 20 27 4 11 18 26 2 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12
December 2007 February March

16. Stochastic Oscillator (20.6897), Volume (3,014,500)
50
0
PGAS (9,000.00, 9,100.00, 9,000.00, 9,100.00, +100.000)
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 20 26 2
February March April

17. Remember that:
# trend is determined by price action
# trend lines are only measuring the rate of change
of price in trend
So, Trend Lines do not end Trends, It’s only give a
Warning that the Trend is losing
Momentum.

18. Penetration of Trend Line:
1. Closing
2. The Two Days Reversal
3. The 3% Rule

19. 1. Open : emotional reaction of public
2. High : maximum power of buyers
3. Low : maximum power of seller
4. Closing : professional take profit,
conclusion of the daily
battle

20. 1. Volume Up, Price Up, Up Trend
2. Volume Up, Price Down, Down Trend
3. Volume Down, Price Up, Correction
4. Volume Down, Price Down, Correction

21. Bar Chart Candlestick

22. Trend Major, Middle & Minor Up
(Price)
• 25-200 Rp 1,-
• <500 Rp 5,-
• 500-2000 Rp 10,-
• 2000-5000 Rp 25,-
• >5000 Rp 50,-

23. 1. Last High Last Low
2. Trend Line
3. Channel/Trend Channel
1. Up Channel
2. Low Channel

24. Dow Theory
The Market has three movement
1. Primary Trend
2. Secondary Reaction
3. Daily Fluctuation

25. Sideways (Non Trend)
1. Reversal
2. Continuation
Note:
a. Support & Resistance
b. Break Up/Down
c. Target Price after break

26. Strategy
Buying : Buy 1st at Break
Buy 2nd at Pull Back
Selling : Partial
On target
Note : Falls break TP (pattern)

27. Double/Triple Top
Double/Triple Bottom
Head & Shoulder (Left, Right, Neck Line)
Inverse Head & Shoulder
Continuation/Reversal
Triangle (Ascending & Descending)
Flag

28. TLKM 9850
9800
9750
9700
9650
9600
9550
9500
9450
9400
9350
9300
9250
9200
9150
9100
9050
9000
8950
8900
8850
8800
8750
8700
8650
8600
8550
8500
8450
Volume (10,186,000), Stochastic Oscillator (65.0000) 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 2 3 4 5
March April

29. TLKM 9850
9800
9750
9700
9650
9600
9550
9500
9450
9400
9350
9300
9250
9200
9150
9100
9050
9000
8950
8900
8850
8800
8750
8700
8650
8600
8550
8500
8450
Volume (10,186,000), Stochastic Oscillator (65.0000) 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 2 3 4 5
March April

30. Volume (2,617,000), Stochastic Oscillator (25.0000), MACD (-31.1421)
200
100
0
-100
-200
ISAT (5,850.00, 5,900.00, 5,800.00, 5,800.00, +0.0) 7100
161.8% 7000
6900
6800
6700
6600
6500
6400
100.0%
6300
6200
6100
6000
61.8%
5900
50.0%
5800
38.2% 5700
5600
23.6%
5500
5400
0.0% 5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
2005 April May June July August September November 2006 February April May June July August September November 2007 February April

31. Volume (4,855,500), Stochastic Oscillator (48.0000)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
LSIP (5,650.00, 5,950.00, 5,650.00, 5,900.00, +250.000)
161.8%
7500
7000
100.0%
6500
61.8%
6000
50.0%
38.2%
23.6% 5500
0.0%
5000
4500
25 2 9 16 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 26 2 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 20 26 2
October November December 2007 February March April

32. Stochastic Oscillator (20.6897), Volume (3,014,500)
50
0
PGAS (9,000.00, 9,100.00, 9,000.00, 9,100.00, +100.000)
14500
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
December 2006 February March April May June July August September October November December 2007 February March April

33. Modern Analysis
1. Trend Following
lagging/late, in trend
Example : MA5 average 5 days before,
Price > MA Buy
Price < MA Sell
Price Down near MA Buy
2. Momentum Indicator
closing price, non trend/sideways
Example : Over Bought (Sell)
Over Sold (Buy)

34. 1. Fundamental Analysis
2. Technical Analysis
3. Trading Tactic
4. Capital/Money Management

35. 1. Global Market
2. Regional Market
3. JCI/JSE/IHSG
4. Stocks or Individual Stock

36.  Portfolio Management
◦ Diversify investment to 8-10 different industry or stock
◦ Select the market leader of each industry
◦ Create the maximum tolerable percentage of loss each
transaction
◦ Select stock that do not move together (negative
correlation) to optimize the power of diversification

37.  Stock Picking Process :
◦ Find stock that both the excellent company (included in
MSCI index) AND liquid stock (included in LQ45
Index)
 Find the Timing :
◦ At the beginning of the estimated uptrend
◦ Stock that still move in healthy uptrend
 The Portfolio Management Thing :
◦ Allocated by observing the power of diversification!

38.  The Fact : Investment in Stocks Carrying High
Risk Profile
 High Risk means it has a higher risk than the
other investment alternatives
 Do not means uncontrollable risk!
We set the maximum stop loss percentage each trading
The best position when the market is uncertain is no position

39.  Potential Gain VS Potential Loss
 Setting the Stop Loss
 Calculate time-adjusted-return
◦ 150 to 200 = 33% (expected 6 Months)
◦ Or 5.5% per month
◦ Or 0.275% per days!
◦ Ex : TLKM 7000, Gain 0.275% per days = 19.25
 Be careful with average down…

40. Past
4M
NOW
2M ?
Key Success Factor ?
1M

41. You Can Learn, We Can Teach