A presentation by Daniel Fraile of CAN Europe at the CAN Europe - CANSA Summit held in India in March 2014.

1. EU Energy policy Strategy:
Towards a low-carbon economy
Daniel Fraile
March 2014

2. Outline
• EC low carbon economy and Energy roadmap
2050
• The 2020 package- current policy
• The post-2020 process
• What’s next

3. EC 2050 roadmap

4. EC Roadmap for moving to a low carbon
economy in 2050

5. EC 2050 Energy roadmap: 5 Decarbonisation
Scenarios
Source: EC Energy Roadmap 2050

6. ON THE WAY TO 2050
First stop: 2020

7. 2009 EU Climate and Energy Package
• Two binding target
– 20% GHG Reduction target (compared to 1990 levels)
– 20% Renewable energy share of final energy demand
• 10% RES in transport by 2020
• One indicative target
– 20% energy efficiency (with respect to 1990 levels of
primary energy demand)
• Emission Trading Scheme for carbon allowance

8. 2009 EU Climate and Energy Package
REGULATIONS
• Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars
as part of the Community's integrated approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty
vehicles
DIRECTIVES
• Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
• Directive 2009/29/EC to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading
scheme of the Community
• Directive 2009/30/EC as regards the specification of petrol, diesel and gas-oil and introducing a
mechanism to monitor and reduce greenhouse gas emissions AND as regards the specification
of fuel used by inland waterway vessels
• Directive 2009/31/EC on the geological storage of carbon dioxide
DECISIONS ADOPTED JOINTLY BY THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
• Decision No 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up
to 2020

9. 2020 Targets on GHG emissions
2020 GHG Emissions Target
(compared to 2005 levels) (%)

10. 2020 Targets for Renewable Energy
Share of renewables in gross
final Energy consumption

11. Primary energy demand by fuel
Source: EC Energy trend to 2050, Reference scenario (2013)

12. RES penetration in different sectors
Source: EC Energy trend to 2050, Reference scenario (2013)

13. Post-2020 Energy & Climate
policy framework

14. The post-2020 Climate and Energy Framework
2030 C&E
Framework
Energy roadmap
2050:
No-regrets
options
RE strategy:
post-2020 RES
framework
ETS failures:
- back-loading proposals
- long-term structural
measures
UNFCCC: New
climate
agreement by
2015

15. Pathway to 2015

16. The European Commission Proposal on a 2030
E&C framework- NGO views
– Low ambition: 40% for GHG and 27% for RES
– No concrete figure for Energy efficiency
– No national binding targets for RES nor Energy
efficiency
– Lack of focus on sustainability
– Too much focus on electricity prices/
competitiveness
– Focus on power (and ETS) sector. Abandon efforts
on transport. Little attention to heating & cooling
– Positive appraisal of ETS as the main tool

17. Why – 55% domestic by 2030
• Logical pathway from -15% to -95%
• Realistic pathway based on current -2%/yr
• Feasible based on multitude of studies

18. Realistic vs EC 2050 Roadmap pathway
2006 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Realistic
Current
Roadmap
-5%
-80%
-95%
-55%
-40%
-20%
-35%

19. What do we need to reach -95%?
We need 3 binding targets
• Need to make the right choices (risk of high-carbon
lock-in). Pushing for full potential
– GHG emissions reductions (at least -55% by 2030)
– Demand reduction (at least -40% by 2030)
– Renewable energy (at least 45% by 2030)
• Need targets to steer massive investments in
production capacity and grids
• Not by carbon price alone, need complementary
policies

20. carbon price policy is not enough
IEA: Summing up the parts, 2011

21. Power sector related policies supporting a 3
targets approachEnergy market design
 Continuation of support policies for RES, to reduce technology cost and
to overcome non-market barriers
 Implementation of a functioning single European energy market that
promotes an energy transformation
 Creating a level playing field for all energy technologies
Coal related policies
 Full implementation of IED, and committed to continuously
strengthening best available techniques
 Phase coal out of system (i.e. EPS)
Carbon Market
 ETS- Permanent cancellation (~2,2bn)
 ETS- Cap reduced at approx. 2,6% annually

22. What’s next
• Ban-ki-Moon Summit, September
• EU deadline for a 2030 target: October
• UNCFF deadline: 1Q 2015
• Energy efficiency directive review, June
• Review of subsidies schemes across Europe

23. Thank you for your attention.

24. RES are fundamental for Europe’s decarbonisation
EC decarbonisation scenarios:
-RES in final energy: ~ 30% in 2030
-RES in electricity: 52% to 58% in 2030

25. Many scenarios on the power sector evolution
reference scenario of the Greenpeace/EREC study.
Figure 4 Development of the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation (including net
imports) in the different scenarios
Source: Compiled from data provided by the given studies and by Eurostat (2010)
The following figure takes a closer look at renewable electricity generation in Europe in the
Source: SEFEP METASTUDY 2012- Compiled from data provided by the given studies and by Eurostat (2010)
Development of RES in electricity generation
(including net imports)
EC decarbonisation scenarios
range (RES between 52 to 58%)

26. European Commission White Paper
1+1/2 targets package:
 40% GHG, domestic (compared to 1990)
 EU-wide binding target for RES: at least 27%
 No carbon target for fuels (FQD) and no sub-target for RES transport
 Indicative level for Energy efficiency: 25%
 New governance process with national decarbonization roadmaps
 Legislative proposal- ETS Reserve mechanism
 shale gas enabling framework guidelines- No regulation
 Analysis on energy prices and costs

27. Key aspects of the White Paper
 GHG Target:
 ETS: 43% (compared to 2005)
 ETS’s Linear Reduction Factor: 2,2%
after 2020
 Non- ETS: 30% (compared to 2005)
 No clear effort sharing methodology
 LULUCF to be included
 No conditionality
 New ETS reserve mechanisms
 Review of carbon leakage list- BAU
*[…to maximise the resource efficient use of biomass in order to deliver robust and verifiable greenhouse
gas savings and to allow for fair competition between the various uses of biomass resources in the
construction sector, paper and pulp industries and biochemical and energy production. This should also
encompass the sustainable use of land, the sustainable management of forests in line with the EU's forest
strategy and address indirect land use effects as with biofuels.]
RES Target:
EU-wide binding: at least 27%
No RES transport target
Improved biomass policy*
Substantial revision of RED for
after 2020
New governance before 2020
Phase out support after 2020

28. GHG emission reduction targets
40%

29. Key stakeholders in Brussels
2-3 targets &
more ambition
1 GHG Target&
low ambition
Business
Europe
No targets:
Only an instrument
Coal lobby
(Euracoal)
Oil and Gas
(OGP,
Europia),
Energy-intensive
industry
(chemical, paper,
cement, lime,
metals, glass,
consumers, clay,
etc.

30. EC Green
paper
• 27th March
• COM Green
Paper on 2030,
and public
consultation
Public
consultation
• 500 response
• Until July 2
Informal
Minister
council –
Dublin
• 23rd April
• MS informal
views on targets
European
Council on
energy
• 2nd May,
• EU Heads of
States give
mandate to COM
for analysis and
sets the timeline
Impact
assessment for
targets/ Energy
prices study
• Summer/ autumn
• EC internal work
December 2013
• COM to present
communication
on 2030 policy
options
Timeline- EU process: Next steps
EU Council on
Competitiveness
• February 2014
• EU Council on
Competitiveness
EU Council on
2030
• March 2014
Ministerial
meeting for int’
negotiations
• May/June
• MS to take EU
position on domestic
target for int climate
negotiations
UN “Ban-ki-Moon”
meeting
• September
COP20-Peru
2014
2013

31. what it’s like being an environmental NGO (in Brussels) trying to lobby for
change, the imbalances in lobbying capacity between such NGOs and large
corporations?
NGOs
Many Industry
groups, many
voices
Large industry groups: Eurelectric,
Business Europe, etc.
Member States:
UK, DE, FR
Opportunities & Challenges