This year, governments will agree Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the period to 2030, and a new global climate agreement, to take effect from 2020. Together, these could set the course for environmental sustainability and human well-being this century. The agreements together offer a once-in-a generation opportunity to end extreme poverty, create climate resilience and avoid dangerous levels of climate change by committing to zero net carbon emissions.
This powerpoint shares the key messages from CDKN, Metroeconomica and HR Wallingford on the relationship between climate change and the sustainable development goals.
The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals
1. The impact of climate change on
the achievement of the post-2015
sustainable development goals
Photo:PichuginDmitry/Shutterstock.com
2. Key messages
2
• Strong SDGs will help to achieve a more ambitious climate agreement
• An ambitious climate agreement will help to achieve the SDGs
• Impacts up to 2030:
• Climate impacts before 2030 may not differ greatly under a
strong or weak climate agreement, BUT
• The climate agreement WILL significantly impact global
development from now to 2030
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
3. By 2030, the low-ambition agreement is
projected to result in:
• 80% – 140% higher poverty levels for Asia
and sub-Saharan Africa
• 25% higher poverty levels for LAC
than the high-ambition agreement
4. Method
4
• combination of RCP4.5 and SSP1
• 2°C temperature increase by 2100
• policies for rapid income growth,
reduced reliance on natural
resources
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
IPCC (2014)
• combination of RCP8.5 and SSP3
• 3-5°C temperature increase by
2100
• economic growth is slower, lack of
international cooperation, slow
technological progress
High-ambition climate agreement
Low-ambition climate agreement
5. Case study:
Caribbean countries
5
• Small economies, low population, low emissions
• High energy expenditure
• Keen on expanding domestic energy supplies
• Keen on increasing use of renewable energy technologies
Would welcome a strong agreement:
• access to more resources for investment
• reach their energy targets
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
Photo:WorldWatchEn/Flickr.com
6. Case study:
Caribbean countries
6Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
Poverty SDG (people
under national
poverty line)
2015 2030
high-ambition low-ambition
Jamaica 490,000 180,000 400,000
Dominica 20,700 10,200 16,600
• Poverty impacts of the agreement are greater than in the
analysis of LAC as a whole
• Extreme events exacerbate poverty
• Potential for women to benefit from climate financing
• Energy is of considerable importance:
• A high-ambition agreement would create the right policy framework
and help finance the energy transition
8. Case study:
Pakistan
8Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
• Shift towards energy policy enhancing the role of renewables
• Investment to increase water and food security
• Promotion of rapid, sustainable urban growth
High-ambition agreement benefits:
• Support for renewable energy growth
• Greater investments in infrastructure
• Adaptation finance for agricultural and
water sectors
Photo:RussellWatkins/DFID
9. Case study:
Pakistan
9Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
Poverty SDG (Number of
people below the poverty
line of US$1.25 per day )
2015 2030
high-ambition low-ambition
Pakistan 25 million zero 8.6 million
• Compared to the average for South Asia, the effect of a
strong agreement on poverty is much greater in Pakistan:
• Poverty is impacted by extreme events
• Financial backing much more likely under a strong agreement
• Water sector needs significant resources
• A strong climate agreement would increase water infrastructure
• Energy deficit is critical and need for action is urgent
• Climate finance will help develop hydro and renewable resources
11. Case study:
Uganda
11Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
• Major urban infrastructure investments
• Compact energy efficient developments
• Efficient, low-carbon transport system
• Energy system that develops the low-carbon indigenous resources
High-ambition agreement benefits:
• Greater emphasis to renewables and non-fossil sources
• External finance will be enhanced
Photo:PeteLewis/DFID
12. Case study:
Uganda
12Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
Poverty SDG (Number of
people below the poverty
line of US$1.25 per day )
2015 2030
high-ambition low-ambition
Uganda 15 million 12 million 19 million
• In neither case the goal of extreme poverty eradication is met
• Water sector imbalances due to water deficit/flooding, likely
to be exacerbated by climate change:
• support is more likely to be forthcoming under a strong agreement
• Energy sector links between developing a modern energy
sector and phasing out the high dependence on traditional
biomass
14. Research recommendations
14
Improved understanding is needed on:
• How development pathways change due to alternative warming
and decarbonisation scenarios
• Links between extreme events and poverty
• Co-benefits of low-carbon energy development
• Links between the water & sanitation and health SDGs
• Extending the country-level analysis to cover more SDGs
• More and better quantitative data on gender metrics
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
15. Conclusions
15
• A high-ambition agreement:
• Will pave the way towards eradicating poverty, ensuring
food security and protecting future generations from the
impacts of a changing climate
• Is likely to provide significant benefits to both the climate
and development agendas over the next two decades
• Is essential to have the best chance of achieving the SDGs by
2030
• Strong SDGs will support efforts to implement a more
ambitious agreement
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
Photo:TrustforAfricasOrphans/Flickr.com
