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The 
IPCC’s Fift 
h 
Assessme 
nt Report 
What’s in it 
for South Asia? 
Key findings
South Asia’s 
climate 
is already 
changing 
● Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming 
has been unprecedented compared to previous 
decades and millennia 
● The IPCC says with 95% certainty that 
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases 
in the atmosphere due to human activities have 
been 
the dominant cause of observed warming since 
the mid-20th century
South Asia’s 
climate 
is already 
changing 
● At a country scale, 
warming has occurred 
across most of South Asia 
over the 20th century and 
early 2000s. There were 
more temperature 
extremes (high confidence) 
● Rainfall trends, including 
extremes, are 
characterised by strong 
variability, with both 
increasing and decreasing 
trends observed in 
different parts of (South) 
Asia 
Change in annual average 
temperature in South Asia, 
1901–2012 
Change in annual average 
temperature in South Asia, 
1901–2012
Climate impacts 
are already 
being felt 
● The Asia region as a whole experienced the 
most weather-related disasters in the world 
(2000–2008) and suffered almost 30% of total 
global economic losses 
● Globally, the risk of deaths due to flooding is 
highly concentrated in Asia 
● Extreme rainfall and flooding is causing 
illnesses, deaths and mass displacement 
● Heat stress is affecting South Asian populations 
and putting more children’s lives at risk 
especially 
in cities
Further climate 
change is 
inevitable in the 
coming decades 
● Regardless of future emissions, we are already 
committed to a further warming world. 
● If the world continues to emit greenhouse gases 
at current rates, average global temperature 
could rise by 2.6–4.8ºC by 2100 (highest 
emissions scenario – business as usual).
Future impacts 
of global 
warming 
Observed and projected global annual 
average temperature 
Global risks under increasing levels of 
climate change
Future climate 
trends for 
South Asia
Climate change 
poses 
challenges to 
growth and 
development 
in South Asia 
● Flood damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and 
settlements 
● Food and water shortages 
● Heat-related mortality 
● These threats could undermine the progress South 
Asian countries have made in tackling disease, 
malnutrition and early deaths and gains in 
agricultural productivity in recent decades
Adaptation will 
bring immediate 
benefits and 
reduce the 
impacts of 
climate change 
in Africa 
Carefully planned adaptation activities make for 
good development. ‘No regrets’ and ‘low regrets’ 
measures: 
● Increasing access to information 
● Improving health services 
● Diversifying cropping systems 
● Strengthening access to land, credit and 
other resources especially for poor and 
marginalised groups 
● Improving governance of water and land 
resources
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Increased riverine, 
coastal, and urban 
flooding leading to 
widespread damage to 
infrastructure, 
livelihoods and 
settlements in Asia. 
(medium confidence)
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Increased risk of 
heat-related mortality 
(high confidence)
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Increased risk of 
drought-related water 
and food shortage 
causing malnutrition 
(high confidence)
Adaptation is 
fundamentally 
about 
risk managemen 
t 
“In many cases, we are not prepared for 
the climate-related risks we already face. 
Investments in better preparation can 
pay dividends both in the present and for 
the future.” 
– Vicente Barros, IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair
Asia has many 
adaptation 
options 
Good practices exist 
“Asia has longstanding experience in managing natural 
resources and biodiversity. Harnessing th experience 
gained in afforestation, rangeland regeneration, 
catchment rehabilitation and community based natural 
resource management programmes could drive 
effective and evcologically sustainable local adaptation 
strategies” – IPCC 
Regional cooperation could be important
Beyond the 
Fifth Assessment 
Report: South 
Asia’s first heat-related 
health 
action plan
Beyond the 
Fifth 
Assessment 
Report: Energy 
efficient, 
climate-resilient 
construction in 
Pakistan
Promoting 
ambitious global 
action 
● In order to limit global warming to less than 2C, 
total emissions from human activity should not 
exceed 800-1000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide 
equivalent, to date, human activity has release 
500 gigatonnes 
● Pledges by world leaders are not enough to limit 
global warming below 2C 
● On the current trajectory, parts of South Asia will 
experience XXC rise by mid-21st century 
● Climate mitigation must be a shared effort
Some low-carbon 
development 
options may 
be less costly 
in the long run 
and could offer 
new economic 
opportunities 
for South Asia 
● South Asian countries can adopt clean, energy 
efficient technologies and side-step ‘lock in’ to 
fossil fuel dependent infrastructure 
● It is cheaper to invest in low-carbon options 
now than to lock in to conventional alternatives
South 
Asia stands 
to benefit from 
integrated 
climate 
adaptation, 
mitigation and 
development 
approaches 
Many sustainable development pathways combine 
climate adaptation, mitigation, development 
options effectively 
Decentralised, renewable power systems avoid 
greenhouse gas emissions, dependence on costly 
and unreliable fossil fuels, more resilient to climate 
extremes and variability
South Asia stands 
to benefit from 
integrated 
approaches 
Many sustainable development pathways combine 
climate adaptation, mitigation, development options 
effectively 
Agroforestry schemes can allow farmers to 
generate income and accumulate assets from 
carbon capture, wood-based energy and improved 
soil fertility, and can promote resilience through 
species diversity
International 
cooperation is 
vital to avert 
dangerous 
climate change 
and African 
governments 
can promote 
ambitious 
global action 
● Every government must participate in global 
negotiations toward a collective solution 
● Developed countries have committed to 
mobilising $100 billion/year by 2020 for 
adaptation and mitigation in developing 
countries
“International cooperation is required 
to effectively mitigate greenhouse gas 
emissions and address other climate 
change issues … outcomes seen as 
equitable can lead to more effective 
cooperation” 
–IPCC
Download resources including 
infographics and slides: 
www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit 
Find the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment 
Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ 
Contact: asia@cdkn.org

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What's in it for South Asia? Key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

  • 1. The IPCC’s Fift h Assessme nt Report What’s in it for South Asia? Key findings
  • 2. South Asia’s climate is already changing ● Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming has been unprecedented compared to previous decades and millennia ● The IPCC says with 95% certainty that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities have been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century
  • 3. South Asia’s climate is already changing ● At a country scale, warming has occurred across most of South Asia over the 20th century and early 2000s. There were more temperature extremes (high confidence) ● Rainfall trends, including extremes, are characterised by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends observed in different parts of (South) Asia Change in annual average temperature in South Asia, 1901–2012 Change in annual average temperature in South Asia, 1901–2012
  • 4. Climate impacts are already being felt ● The Asia region as a whole experienced the most weather-related disasters in the world (2000–2008) and suffered almost 30% of total global economic losses ● Globally, the risk of deaths due to flooding is highly concentrated in Asia ● Extreme rainfall and flooding is causing illnesses, deaths and mass displacement ● Heat stress is affecting South Asian populations and putting more children’s lives at risk especially in cities
  • 5. Further climate change is inevitable in the coming decades ● Regardless of future emissions, we are already committed to a further warming world. ● If the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, average global temperature could rise by 2.6–4.8ºC by 2100 (highest emissions scenario – business as usual).
  • 6. Future impacts of global warming Observed and projected global annual average temperature Global risks under increasing levels of climate change
  • 7. Future climate trends for South Asia
  • 8. Climate change poses challenges to growth and development in South Asia ● Flood damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements ● Food and water shortages ● Heat-related mortality ● These threats could undermine the progress South Asian countries have made in tackling disease, malnutrition and early deaths and gains in agricultural productivity in recent decades
  • 9. Adaptation will bring immediate benefits and reduce the impacts of climate change in Africa Carefully planned adaptation activities make for good development. ‘No regrets’ and ‘low regrets’ measures: ● Increasing access to information ● Improving health services ● Diversifying cropping systems ● Strengthening access to land, credit and other resources especially for poor and marginalised groups ● Improving governance of water and land resources
  • 10. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Increased riverine, coastal, and urban flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements in Asia. (medium confidence)
  • 11. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Increased risk of heat-related mortality (high confidence)
  • 12. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition (high confidence)
  • 13. Adaptation is fundamentally about risk managemen t “In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both in the present and for the future.” – Vicente Barros, IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair
  • 14. Asia has many adaptation options Good practices exist “Asia has longstanding experience in managing natural resources and biodiversity. Harnessing th experience gained in afforestation, rangeland regeneration, catchment rehabilitation and community based natural resource management programmes could drive effective and evcologically sustainable local adaptation strategies” – IPCC Regional cooperation could be important
  • 15. Beyond the Fifth Assessment Report: South Asia’s first heat-related health action plan
  • 16. Beyond the Fifth Assessment Report: Energy efficient, climate-resilient construction in Pakistan
  • 17. Promoting ambitious global action ● In order to limit global warming to less than 2C, total emissions from human activity should not exceed 800-1000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, to date, human activity has release 500 gigatonnes ● Pledges by world leaders are not enough to limit global warming below 2C ● On the current trajectory, parts of South Asia will experience XXC rise by mid-21st century ● Climate mitigation must be a shared effort
  • 18. Some low-carbon development options may be less costly in the long run and could offer new economic opportunities for South Asia ● South Asian countries can adopt clean, energy efficient technologies and side-step ‘lock in’ to fossil fuel dependent infrastructure ● It is cheaper to invest in low-carbon options now than to lock in to conventional alternatives
  • 19. South Asia stands to benefit from integrated climate adaptation, mitigation and development approaches Many sustainable development pathways combine climate adaptation, mitigation, development options effectively Decentralised, renewable power systems avoid greenhouse gas emissions, dependence on costly and unreliable fossil fuels, more resilient to climate extremes and variability
  • 20. South Asia stands to benefit from integrated approaches Many sustainable development pathways combine climate adaptation, mitigation, development options effectively Agroforestry schemes can allow farmers to generate income and accumulate assets from carbon capture, wood-based energy and improved soil fertility, and can promote resilience through species diversity
  • 21. International cooperation is vital to avert dangerous climate change and African governments can promote ambitious global action ● Every government must participate in global negotiations toward a collective solution ● Developed countries have committed to mobilising $100 billion/year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries
  • 22. “International cooperation is required to effectively mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and address other climate change issues … outcomes seen as equitable can lead to more effective cooperation” –IPCC
  • 23. Download resources including infographics and slides: www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit Find the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ Contact: asia@cdkn.org