The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

1. Global Futures and
Strategic Foresight
Bioversity workplan for 2015 and 2016
Presented at May 25-28 meeting, Rome

2. Objectives
Bioversity program of work with Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight is designed to examine, at multiple scales, the
trade-offs/complementarities between sustainable
agricultural production and those ecosystem-services (ESS)
affected by safeguarding agriculture and tree biodiversity.
These include services which affect productivity,
• Risks of pests/diseases
• Pollination
• Soil health
• Water quality and use-efficiency

3. Reason for analysis at multiple scales
Consideration of agriculture in a systems framework requires
analysis of
• Below-ground and above ground impacts of production
systems
• Equity and gender impacts
• Sustainable livelihoods, profitability, and resilience of
production systems
• Impacts on other sectors
• Labor implications
• NRM implications
• Climate change mitigation, adaptation implications, etc

4. Still being defined. Current engagement has involved
Elisabetta Gotor
Enoch Kikulwe
Linkage with A4NH team in Bioversity
Linkage with intra-species diversity team in Bioversity
Linkage with WLE team in Bioversity
Wageningen University
IIASA
Roma Tre University
Francesco Caracciolo, University of Naples
Paolo Colangelo, Istituto per lo Studio degli Ecosistemi
Team

5. Plan of Action
• We just joined GFSF
• Held workshop in Rome May 7-8, 2015 where we had 45
participants – from across CGIAR and outside CGIAR.
• Started a literature review on integrating biodiversity and
ESS into foresight models in partnership with IIASA
• Starting a literature review to link biodiversity to ESS
• Holding internal meetings first half of June to identify
research questions at each scale of analysis

6. Key questions in the May Workshop
• What should be the objective of collaborative work in this
area?
• What are 3 concrete work streams which would accomplish
this goal?
• What geographic area or areas may be recommended for
focus?

7. Key points emerging from the May Workshop
• Data: availability, gap, developing common platform,
coordination
• Clearly identify ESS, develop common definition and
indicators for use
• Challenge to link research across scales
• Need to improve/increase empirical validation of models
• Come up with concrete research questions for moving
forward

8. Bioversity interested in integrating
biodiversity data into crop models
15 countries
• Africa: Ethiopia, Uganda, Morocco, Burkina Faso
• Central and Southern America: Mexico, Peru, Ecuador
• Asia: Nepal, Vietnam, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan
• Europe: Hungary
XX Annual crops
• barley, maize, rice, durum wheat, faba bean, common bean, taro, chili,
squash, finger millet, sponge gourd, pigeon pea, sorghum, cowpea, okra
XX Perennial fruit trees
• Banana/plantain, Apple, Pear, Almond, Pistachio, Pomegranate, Apricot,
Grape, Walnut
XX Sites and sample numbers
• Five focus groups and 60 Households per site per crop; two to five
agroecological sites per country

9. Research plan under GFSF
• Participation in the banana component of IMPACT
• Work on establishing a relationship between use of
biodiversity and the risks from pest/disease focusing on
specific host/pest/disease relationship
• This will likely be pursued both at the specific
commodity level and at the landscape level
• Trade-off analysis at farm/household level
• Also planning to work with a CGE component. We are
still deciding the details.

10. Linking biodiversity to ESS
• Use geospatial and field trial data to estimate
relationships
• Explore the use of remote-sensing data to spatially scale
the relationship
• Explore the use of process models

11. Integrating biodiversity and ESS at the
agriculture-sector level
• Participation in the banana component of IMPACT
• Look at banana production at a system-level
• Incorporation of biodiversity, through its affect on
ecosystem services such as potential for pest/disease

12. Analysis at the household/farm level
• In partnership with Wageningen University, A4NH and
System CRPs
• Ongoing work in Zambia, expanding to Kenya under PIM
• Potential for expansion to Vietnam

13. We are exploring both/either looking at global and/or a
specific country
We will choose the country and issues based on critical mass
of ongoing work and the potential for ESS for impact.
We are collaborating with Roma Tre University on this.
Integrating biodiversity and ESS at the
economy-wide level

14. Anticipated Outputs for 2015
• Poster presented to AgMIP meeting February 2015 on using
varietal mixtures to control bean fly infestation in Uganda
• May 7-8 workshop in Rome
• IAAE organized symposium in Milan, August 2015
• Paper on bioeconomic modelling literature review to be
submitted to a journal
• Draft of literature review on biodiversity and ecosystem
linkages to be completed

15. Questions
Thank you