Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program enhances and uses a coordinated suite of biophysical and socioeconomic models to assess potential returns to investments in new agricultural technologies and policies. These models include IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), hydrology and water supply-demand models, and the DSSAT suite of process-based crop models. The program also provides tools and trainings to scientists and policy makers to undertake similar assessments. GFSF program is a Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) program led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

1. IMPACT Food Security Module
Shahnila Islam and Daniel Mason-D’Croz

2. Post Processing Module
• Malnourished Children
– Per capita kilo calories
– Total kilo calories
– Percent Malnourished
– Total Malnourished
• Risk of Hunger
– Relative Kilocalories
– Share of population at risk of hunger
– Total population at risk of hunger
• Reaching Millennium Development Goals
– Checking if the MDG parameter has been reached
– Checking the progress towards the MDG goal

3. Malnourished Calculation
• Lisa Smith and Lawrence Haddad (2000)
– Per capita national food availability
– Women’s education and women’s status relative to men’s
– Access to safe water
• IMPACT parameters
– Per capital national food availability (2nd most important)

4. Smith and Haddad update (2013/2014)
• Stunting and not weight for age
• Percentage of food that comes from non-staples
• Access to sanitation and not only access to water
• Governance
– Bureaucratic effectiveness
– Law and order
– Political stability
– Restraint of corruption
– Democratic accountability
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5. What do the updates mean for IMPACT?
• Need to update data to use stunting and not weight for age
• Need to disaggregate calories from different categories (non-
staples)
• Other Issues
– National food availability is not a very important determinant for
malnourishment!
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6. Share At Risk Calculation
• Per capita kilo calories
• Minimum kilo calories required
• Relative kilo calories
• Calculation following Günther Fischer, Mahendra Shah,
Francesco N. Tubiello and Harrij van Velhuizen (2005)
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7. Towards MDGs
• Goal 1: Eradication extreme poverty and hunger
– Target 1C – Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
who suffer from hunger
• IMPACT Proxies
– Malnourished children
– Share at risk of hunger
• IMPACT reports
– MDG check – year in which each goal is reached
– MDG progress – tracks the progress of countries towards each goal
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