GSFS_XTM_May2015

1. Welcome and Overview
Keith Wiebe
GFSF Extended Team Meeting
Rome, 25 – 28 May 2015

2. Session 1 Welcome and overview
• Introductions
• Logistics
• Review agenda
• Update on GFSF
• CRP Phase 2 process
• Role of quantitative foresight modeling

3. Meeting objectives
• Information sharing and team-building
• Model improvement
• Work planning
• PIM Phase II pre-proposal
• Also
• Communications and administrative issues
• Planning for upcoming events

4. Meeting agenda
Monday, 25 May – Overview, Center progress reports, IMPACT baseline, IPR review
09:00 Session 1: welcome and update on GFSF, CRP phase 2 process, role of foresight (Keith)
Moderator: Aden
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Session 2: Center progress reports (WorldFish, IWMI, IRRI, ILRI)
Moderator: Anita
12:30 Lunch
13:30 Session 3: IMPACT version 3.2 baseline and web visualization tool (Daniel and Shahnila)
Moderator: Nedu
15:00 Coffee
15:30 Session 4: IPR review – roots, tubers, bananas and plantains (Daniel, Tim, centers)
Moderator: Nhuong
19:30 Dinner at Ristorante La Villetta (walk from hotel at 19:15)

5. Meeting agenda
Tuesday, 26 May – Center progress reports and IPR review (continued)
09:00 Session 1: Center progress reports (IITA, IFPRI, ICRISAT, ICRAF)
Moderator: Thanasis
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Session 2: IPR review – cereals (Daniel, Tim, centers)
Moderator: Michael
12:30 Lunch
13:30 Session 3: Center progress reports (ICARDA, CIP, CIMMYT, CIAT)
Moderator: Dolapo
15:00 Coffee
15:30 Session 4: IPR review – pulses, cash crops, fruits and vegetables (Daniel, Tim, centers)
Moderator: Arega
(Dinner on your own)

6. Meeting agenda
Wednesday, 27 May – Strategic foresight to inform the CRP research portfolio
09:00 Session 1: IMPACT version 3.3 model improvements and links to other models (Sherman)
Moderator: Steve
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Session 2: Update on livestock and fish models (Sherman, Daniel, Dolapo, Tim, Nhuong)
Moderator: Tri
12:30 Lunch
13:30 Session 3: Baseline scenarios for the CRP foresight activity (brainstorming)
Moderator: Sika
15:00 Coffee
15:30 Session 4: Alternative scenarios for the CRP foresight activity (brainstorming)
Moderator: Aditya
19:30 Dinner at the Abitart Hotel

7. Meeting agenda
Thursday, 28 May – Center presentations, planning, communications, next steps
09:00 Session 1: Center presentations (Bioversity, AfricaRice, CIFOR)
Moderator: Roberto
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Session 2: Planning for foresight contribution to PIM pre-proposal (Keith, all)
Moderator: Rose
12:30 Lunch
13:30 Session 3: Communications and administrative issues (Kim and Tim)
Moderator: Ahmad
15:00 Coffee
15:30 Session 4: Next steps and closing (Keith)
(Dinner on your own)

8. Session 1 Welcome and overview
• Introductions
• Logistics – expenses, per diem, etc.
• Review agenda
• Update on GFSF
• CRP Phase 2 process
• Role of quantitative foresight modeling

10. Update on GFSF
• Expansion, also turnover
• Progress on many fronts – which we will hear about
• PIM management comments on 2014 activity
reports (Karen 12May15)
• Overall impressive, diverse
• Integration needs to increase, e.g. re CGIAR planning
• Also publications – especially ISI
• Reporting, branding
• More on gender – impacts, prioritization
• Examples of good reports – deliverables complete, gender included, links with
national partners and decisions
• Gates and CCAFS

11. Update on GFSF
• Evaluation of PIM/GFSF
• Focused on IMPACT (and specifically IMPACT2)
• Missed other dimensions of GFSF
• Mixed messages on collaboration (within CGIAR and also AgMIP)
• Some surprising conclusions, e.g. leave IMPACT to IFPRI
• But some important questions, e.g. re engagement with decision
makers (CGIAR, national, other)
• PIM evaluation more broadly (Karen 25Mar15)
• A CRP like PIM should continue
• Link research with policy making
• More strategic collaboration with other CRPs
• Collaboration across global models
• More on gender in foresight work

12. Update on GFSF
• Status of 2015 PIM and IFPRI/Gates contracts
• Collaboration with University of Florida
• AgMIP – pest and disease workshop, ERL paper, use
of IMPACT IPRs by other modeling groups, IPCC
• Global Food Security paper and Discussion Paper
• Upcoming: ICAE Milan, next GFSF extended team
meeting, Strategic Foresight Conference, COP
• Gates phase 2 ends September 2016, prospect of
phase 3?
• Informing CGIAR planning…

13. CRP Phase II process
• Strategy and Results Framework
• SLOs and IDOs
• targets
• DGs’ meeting in Windsor 11-13 May 2015
• decision about Phase II CRPs (or is it a proposal?)
• timeline for CRP pre-proposals and full proposals

14. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF Summary, 18 May 2015

15. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF Summary, 18 May 2015

16. The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework
Reduced Poverty
Improved food and
nutrition security
for health
Improved natural
resource systems
and ecosystem
services
Increased
resilience of
the poor to
climate
change and
other
shocks
Enhanced
smallholder
market
access
Increased
incomes
and
employment
Increased
productivity
Improved
diets for
poor and
vulnerable
people
Improved
food safety
Improved
human and
animal
health
through
better
agricultural
practices
Natural
capital
enhanced
and
protected,
especially
from climate
change
Enhanced
benefit from
ecosystem
goods and
services
More
sustainably
managed
agro-
ecosystems
3 System Level Outcomes (SLOs)
10 Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)

17. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

18. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

19. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

20. Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

21. CRP Phase II process
• Strategy and Results Framework
• SLOs and IDOs
• targets
• DGs’ meeting in Windsor 11-13 May 2015
• decision about Phase II CRPs (or is it a proposal?)
• timeline for pre-proposals and full proposals

22. Phase II of the CRPs
???

23. Timeline for issuing CRP 2nd call
Source: Consortium Office 12 May 2015
June - Dec 2015* Pre-proposal stage and review
Early June Targeted call: Consortium Board (CB) invites Lead Centers to submit pre-
proposals (2 months) for the agreed portfolio of 8-12 CRPs.
Science leaders (CRP leaders & DDGs-R) meet in Montpellier first week of
June to identify flagships and geographies
15-August CRP pre-proposals submitted. Review period starts by relevant entities.
15 Sept- Sept 28 ISPC review of pre-proposals in 4 categories (pre-proposals not revised)
Sept 29 ISPC-Center-Consortium meeting to discuss portfolio post-ISPC review
15 Aug – Oct 6 CB/CO analysis of CRP pre-proposals, taking into account ISPC reviews and
IEA CRP evaluations, IAU CRP audits (CB meeting 2-3 Oct, Montpellier)
3 November FC meeting in DC decisions on CRP pre-proposals
*Note: During this time period there will be a number of activities as part of GCARD3- a few pilot national
consultations, regional consultations - which will provide valuable engagement with stakeholders and
partners for the further development of the portfolio.

24. Timeline for issuing CRP 2nd call
Nov 2015 - Nov 2016 Full proposal stage and review for proposals rated A or B
16 Nov CB invites full proposals
17 Nov ISPC-Consortium-Center meeting to discuss ISPC pre-proposal review and
ISPC/FC guidance for full proposals
16 Nov – 31 March Centers prepare and submit full CRP proposals
Feb (?) 16 GCARD3 in Africa (ad national consultations during Q1 of 2016)
1 Apr – 16 June ISPC pre-review of CRP proposals
17 June ISPC-Centers meeting to discuss ISPC review
17 June – 31-July Centers revise proposals (and shared with new CGIAR System Council)
1 Aug – 30 Sept ISPC (Re-)Review of CRP Proposals
10 Nov CGIAR Council decisions on CRP proposals
10 Nov – 10 Dec Center revisions of Council must-haves, if any
10-20 Dec ISPC final check of Council must haves
10 Nov -31 Dec New CRP contracts put in place between CGIAR Council and lead centers
From Jan 2017 CRP II implementation
Starts 1 January 2017 A twelve year research portfolio with contracts for the first 6 years, and
guaranteed funding for the first 3 years
Source: Consortium Office 12 May 2015
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

25. What is the role of foresight?
• On the “demand” side
• CRP decisions and proposal process
• IFAD decision
• PIM, Gates and CCAFS support; others?
• On the “supply” side
• IFAD decision
• PIM, Gates and CCAFS funds
•  A big challenge, and a big opportunity
• How to make it work?

26. What is the role of foresight?
• Using the IMPACT system of models to explore alternative futures
• Through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program
• One of several inputs to inform CGIAR planning for 2017-2022
• Funding from PIM, BMGF, CCAFS – and…?
26
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Model improvements,
baseline scenarios
Alternative scenarios, draft report Review and revisions

27. Proposed work flow
Model improvements
• IPR review
• Livestock module
• Links to CGE model
• Links to env models
• Links to fish model
• Links to nutrient tables
• Links to health model
Baseline scenarios
• Definition
• Quantification
Alternative scenarios
• Definition
• Quantification
Advisory
committees
• Selection
• meetings
GFSF team
• Composition
• Work plan
First draft
report
Baseline
scenario
runs
Alternative
scenario
runs
Revised
draft
report

28. Proposed work flow
Model improvements
• IPR review
• Livestock module
• Links to CGE model
• Links to env models
• Links to fish model
• Links to nutrient tables
• Links to health model
Baseline scenarios
• Definition
• Quantification
Alternative scenarios
• Definition
• Quantification
Advisory
committees
• Selection
• meetings
GFSF team
• Composition
• Work plan
First draft
report
Baseline
scenario
runs
Alternative
scenario
runs
Revised
draft
report

29. Scenarios
• Baseline
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
• Links to AgMIP

30. Scenarios
• Baseline
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
• Links to AgMIP
• Alternative
• Broadly reflective of alternative CRP portfolios
• Different regional emphases?
• Different commodity group emphases?
• Other criteria?
• How many?

31. What is the role of foresight?
• On the “demand” side
• CRP decisions and proposal process
• IFAD decision
• PIM, Gates and CCAFS support; others?
• On the “supply” side
• IFAD decision
• PIM, Gates and CCAFS funds
•  A big challenge, and a big opportunity
• What, and for whom?
• IFPRI Discussion Paper? Nature article? Science Policy Forum?
COP/GLF? Other options?

32. Scale of foresight analysis
Scale of analysis Scale of value Scale of funding
Center Center Center
CRP CRP CRP
CGIAR CGIAR CGIAR
Other partners Other partners Other partners

33. Questions?
Comments?
Suggestions?
Our task this week.