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Day 1.3 impact 3 updates and improvements


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Day 1.3 impact 3 updates and improvements

  1. 1. IMPACT 3.2 – Improvements and Updates Daniel Mason-D’Croz
  2. 2. IMPACT 3 Review • Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities) • Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national level (159 countries, 154 watersheds, and 320 food production units) • Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with resulting trade • World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear international commodity markets • Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration • Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total production, area
  3. 3. IMPACT 3 Review • Food production is driven by both economic and environmental factors and has both extensive and intensive components (area x yield) • On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of irrigation and for exogenous technological change • Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and population • Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and feeding efficiency • Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand • Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a share of mandates in major countries
  4. 4. IMPACT Spatial Resolution 4 159 • Countries 154 • Water Basins 320 • Food Production Units
  5. 5. Data Sources IMPACT Parameter Data Source 2005 World Prices (USD/mt) OECD-AMAD Population (million) GDP (billion USD, PPP) WDI and CIA World Factbook Total Supply (000 mt) - Animals (000 animals), Harvest Area (000 ha) and Yield (mt/ha or animal) Total Demand (000 mt) - Food, Feed, Intermediate, and Other Trade and stock changes (000 mt) FAOSTAT Commodity Balances Calorie Availability FAOSTAT Food Supply Total national irrigated area FAO AquaStatand OECD By production system at pixel level (irr/rfd) - Harvest Area, Yield, Production IFPRI SPAM Demand Elasticities (Price and Income) USDA and expert opinion Supply Elasticities Expert opinion Marketing Margins OECD and expert opinion PSE and CSEs OECD and expert opinion Tariffs and Taxes GTAP Exogenous Yield Growth Rates (IPRs) Historical trends and expert opinion Population and GDP Growth Rates SSP Database Climate Shocks Simulated in DSSAT for 7 crops with 4 GCMS and RCP 8.5
  6. 6. • FAO Bulk Download for 3-year average around 2005 (04-06) • Harmonized SPAM/IMPACT commodity, and geographic definitions • Bayesian Work Plan – Iterate with new information 6 Processing FAO Data Source Data (FAO, SPAM) Feedback to data source Priors on values and estimation errors of production, demand, and trade Estimation by Cross- Entropy Method Check results against priors and identify potential data problems New information to correct identified problems
  7. 7. IMPACT System of Models
  8. 8. Water Models GCM RCP Crop Models Historical Trends and Expert Opinion Exogenous Endogenous Exogenous + Endogenous Yield Effects
  9. 9. No Immediate DSSAT Proxy for the IMPACT Crop Biophysically Similar Crops Mapping DSSAT Results to IMPACT DSSAT • Maize • Wheat • Rice • Sorghum • Soybeans • Groundnuts • Potatoes IMPACT • Barley • Other Cereals Wheat • Sugarcane Maize • Millet Sorghum • Pulses (chickpeas, pigeon peas, beans, cowpeas) Groundnuts 1 to 1 Mapping • Roots and Tubers • Fruits and Vegetables • Oilseed Crops • All other crops (incl stimulants, sugar beets, and cotton) Average of C3 Crops (all DSSAT crops excl. maize)
  10. 10. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.0 in use through December 2014 – New base 2005 database – Crop and region disaggregation – Crop allocation – New Pricing structure – Recoded and based on modular design – Data Management system – Implementation of Activity-commodity framework
  11. 11. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.0 publications – Andersen et al (2014) “Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050” – Ignaciuk and Mason-D'Croz (2014) “Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture” – Wiebe et al (submitted to ERL) “Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios” – Stuch et al (submitted) “Tradeoffs between Food Security, Species Richness, and Nitrogen Depletion” – van Soesbergen et al (submitted to REC) “Impacts of future agricultural development on biodiversity at regional scales a spatially explicit assessment of trade-offs in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi”
  12. 12. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.1 through March 2015 – Recalibration of food demand – Update of irrigated area trends – Update and of malnutrition module – Update and calibration of welfare module
  13. 13. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.1 publications – Robinson et al (2014) “New Crop varieties and climate change adaptation” (DP, upcoming GFS) – Rosegrant et al (2015) “Returns to investment in reducing Postharvest food losses and increasing Ag productivity growth” – Ignaciuk et al. (accepted at EuroChoices) Better Drip than Flood Reaping the Benefits of Efficient Irrigation – OECD (2015) Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture – Springmann et al (submitted to Lancet) The global and regional health impacts of future food production under climate change
  14. 14. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.2 – Review and update of base data and IPRs – Recalibration of IMPACT baseline projections – Update of share at risk of hunger module – Implementation of endogenous land supply – Further calibration of biofuels demand – Increased substitution effects throughout – Improved climate change processing to better map available crops to un-modelled crops – Update of PSEs, and CSEs, and inclusion of tariffs and taxes – Water model calibration and updates – Water data management modularized
  15. 15. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications • IMPACT 3.2 publications in the pipeline – Mason-D’Croz et al (upcoming EMS) – Sulser (upcoming) ReSAKSS Book Chapter Africa – CCAFS Regional Scenario Working Reports and Articles – CSISA South Asia Report extending Food Security in a World of Resource Scarcity to IMPACT 3 – Latin America Climate Change Monograph – Philippines Work – Water Book
  16. 16. IMPACT 3 next steps • IMPACT 3.3 – Update to livestock module – Better linkages to land-use modeling – Incorporation of IPR feedback – Soft linking to fish module – Linking to GLOBE CGE model
  17. 17. Questions