Presented by Raoni Rajão (professor de Estudos Sociais da Ciência do Departamento de Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)) at "Informações, análises e ferramentas para apoiar programas subnacionais de REDD+ no Brasil" on 17 December 2020
3. Is Brazil’s NDC ambitious?
Copenhagen’s NAMA
Paris’ NDC
Indicative NDC
4. Policy Scenarios and the NDC
Integrated
modeling:
Land Use
Scenarios
Model of
Optimization of
Mitigation
Options in
industry and
energy sector
10. Conclusion
Deforestation control is at the basis of Brazil’s NDC
Contribution Amazonian states is key
If the PNMC goal is met (Gov. Brazil may sell +400 MtCO2e
as ITMOs in 2025
More than 14 thousand km2 of deforestation in the
Amazon:
Impossible goal of 2025 and 2030 without buying ITMOs from
other countries (Cost of + 5 tri USD)
PRODES 2019 indicates displacement of Gov.
intermediate to weak
Uncontrolled deforestation implies costs for
industry/energy or inability to meet climate targets
Copenhagen NAMA: Redução entre 36.1-38.9% do BAU para 2030 (i.e. entre 1,65 – 1,73 GtCO2e)
Acordo de Paris NDC: 1.2 em 2025 com indicação de 1.3 GtCO2e em 2030*
* No Terceira Comunicação Nacional implica em redução de 51 e 56% para 2025 e 2030