Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

Restructuring monocities as a lever of
paradigm shift towards iconomics for
Russian economy
Клод Рошке
Профевор университет париж сакле
Claude Rochet
Professeur des universités
Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris Saclay
Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr

Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cities from the past can teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
2

Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
29/12/2016
3

Top down mono functional city
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia,
representing up to 31% GDP.
A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year
4
Monocities are the
legacy of the
paradigm of the IInd
industrial revolution
based on mass and
standardized
production.
Iconomics is the new
paradigm based on
information techs.
Togliatti (Russia):

Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities
29/12/2016
Decreasing returns due to
• mono specialization in primary activities
• localization in remote places
• No synergies between activities
• 335 mono goroda (31% of towns)
• 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.)
• Urbanisation rate: 75%
5

What a smart city can’t be
 A collection of « smarties »
 A techno centric city
 A city without past
 = EU ideology!
 A deterministic system
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Ont the contrary
Smart city = Integrated complex system
6

Summary
Physics of the city
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Cities scaling laws
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Densité
Potentiel
d’interconnexions
Y=x2 Metcalfe law
But…..
Distance
Interconnexionsréelles
Von Thünen Tobler law
Externalités+et_
Taille
But…..
Taille
Nombredevilles
Marshall West Bettencourt law
Zipf law
8

Combining these laws:
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Size x Number of cities
Connectionsxwealth
New town
Clustering medium size
cities
New town
Defining the perimeter and
the
« in and out »
interrelations of the
system is a key issue in
cities 'system design
9

Good and bad complexity
At a certain point growing
complexity produces more
negative than positive
externalities and become
unmonitorable
Bad complexity
Good complexity
Growing size
Growingcomplexity
E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities…
10

A (really) smart city is an
emerging ecosystem
 Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects
whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.
 The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to
another can be described.
 Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the
city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) :
The behavior is no longer predictable
 Modeling emergence implies:
1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as endogenous (e.g.
disruptive technology) changes.
2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take.
3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.
4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity.
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What modeling means?
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Reality
Model = abstract
representation of perceived
reality
Human constructed reality
Emergence
Transition
Evolutionary model

A smart city is an integration of two kinds of
systems
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Hard systems may
be modeled thanks
to the laws of
physics
(conservative
systems)
Soft systems can’t
be modeled with
the laws of physics
(dissipative
systems)
- Social sciences
- Big data
- Autopoeisis
- Multi-agents
modeling
The key of the
success is here…
… while business
is there
Politics must prevail
on a bottom up basis
13

Summary
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach
us?
29/12/2016
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Middle age cities were smart: organic development,
common good, synergies between economic activities
Common good
Vivere politico
Economic welfare
Pivate good
15

Direct democracy was at the root of the
city life and its organic evolution
16
A russian born
institution
Novogorod veche:
Rule by popular
assembly
Новгоро́дская
респу́блика вече

Middle Age cities grew on an organic
planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a
preconceived goal; it moves from need to
need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a
series of adaptations that themselves become
increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that
they generate a complex final design, hardly
less unified than a pre-formed geometric
pattern. »
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Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!

From organic growth to top-
down planning
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Екатеринбург was founded top
down in 1723 to be a mono
industry city.
Modern cities (from XVI° onward)
were designed through detailed
plans.
The political associated ideal was
autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev).
The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!

Summary
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating
city
29/12/2016
19

Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to
autopoesis
First order cybernetics (Forrester):
The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop…
... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio)
The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human
dissipative systems
The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws and
not top-down predictable
There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size
and its complexity....
... But there is a good and a bad complexity
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A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self
regulate
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Paris métro….

First order cybernetics city
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The myth of
the super mind
and perfect
control
IBM at Rio do
Janeiro
The big brother
like city
22

Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of
production (transformation and destruction) of components
which: (i) through their interactions and transformations
continuously regenerate and realize the network of
processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a
concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist
by specifying the topological domain of its realization as
such a network.” H. Maturana
Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system:
strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce
itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions
29/12/2016
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Autopoeisis: Why and How?
Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the
rapid changing of the environment:
“This generalized view of autopoiesis considers
systems as self-producing not in terms of their
physical components, but in terms of its
organization, which can be measured in terms of
information and complexity. In other words, we
can describe autopoietic systems as those
producing more of their own complexity than
the one produced by their environment".
C. Gershenson
29/12/2016
24

Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on
“ordinary actions of the people”
NO! An evolutionary
process
Integration process is
bottom-up…
… based on ordinary
interactions
 We must understand
how ordinary people
behave
 Q: Is there an
architect with a
master plan?
25

The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics
26
Emergence of the city
pattern
Experiencing
autopoeitic properties
Organic complexity
growth
Example of impact of an
exogenous/endogenous change:
The propagation of the electric
vehicle
Urban Lifecycle Management

Summary
Physics of city
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Methodology : Strategic Analysis
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Why building a city & what are
the strategic goals? Who are
the stakeholders?
What are the generic
functions to be performed by
a smart city?
With which organs?
Technical devices,
software…
With which smart
people?
Conception,
metamodel
framework,
steering
Subsystems
and
processes
People
and tools
Why designing this ecosystem?
Who will live in the city?
What are its activities?
How the city will be fed?
Where the city is located ? (context)
What are the functions to be performed to
reach the goals and how do they interact?
With which organs
and ressources?
How people will interact with the
artifacts?
How civic life will organize?
People as
end-users
People as
citizens

Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (1)
 Economy:
 An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the
condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a
political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)
 FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the
lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…)
productive governance often enforces the development sustainable
productive structures based usually on a participatory system.
 “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by
failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)
 “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared
economic growth with special focus on health, education and
communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence
between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)
29/12/2016
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 Resilience:
 A smart city is a highly internally connected facing
with a turbulent environment, that challenges its
resilience.
 Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic
properties of the system, and consequently its
resilience.
 E.g. Christchurch (NZ)
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26/01/2016
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New techniques arise
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Design thinking
(Stanford, Ecole
des Ponts)
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Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which
consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)
The frontier between production and consumption is
blurred more than in other cases of information economy
(McLuhan): the prosumer.
In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of
the innovation process (Von Hippel).
The power of these technical systems requires strong
political control to be both fully efficient and not
becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).
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Direct democracy has a strong record in the
management of cities and human communities as
complex systems
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 Schumpeterian economics correlates
synergies between activities, political
freedom and common weal.
 Traditional decision making system may
help modeling a resilient human system
e.g.: ongoing research project of
modeling an eco-efficient drinking water
network in Angola with the palaver tree.
33

Bad example: The Globalized city
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City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery
Incomesinequality
Low cost
immigrants
Low cost
immigrants
Old medium and
working class
Super riches
Connected upper class
Communautarism and lost of urban synergies
Urban
poors
Regional insurrection in
desindustrialized periphery

The political divide between globalized cities
and peripheries
29/12/2016
35

The false green cities
29/12/2016
36
Integrating imported
pollution, energy waste….
produced by a dysfunctional
ecosystem
Is the city really green?
The worst case: Paris socio-
ethnic greenwashing

The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore
37
The man-made mechanical
forest consists of 18 supertrees
that act as vertical gardens,
generating solar power, acting
as air venting ducts for nearby
conservatories, and collecting
rainwater. To generate
electricity, 11 of the supertrees
are fitted with solar photovoltaic
systems that convert sunlight
into energy, which provides
lighting and aids water
technology within the
conservatories below

Singapore vs. Norilsk
38
Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no
reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets,
no industry, no initial social capital…
Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation

New paradigms in public decision making
 Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large
scale
 Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision
process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state
 Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The
Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and
System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)
 « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems.
The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the
direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one
that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an
evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A
new Science of Cities » 2015
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A paradoxical research question:
Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should
not need a government?
 At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is
Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.
 At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed
spontaneously self organizing properties .
 Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long
term learning process: Cf. biomimicry
 A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good
institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to
challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and
bottom-up converge.
 We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences,
how they were born, how they died.
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40

Summary
Physics of city
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Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
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42
Training of actors,
Knowledge transfer
to SME
Smart Cities Pilot
Projects
Social capabilities
improvement
System modeling
and integration
capacities
Investments and
reference
realizations
Territories
development
Technology
transfer
Absorptive
capacities
Organic
development
R&D
Actions Realizations Strategic assets
Autopoeisis

Business model transition
43
Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities
Transition scenario
Smartization of
monocities
Investments
Foreign
Investments
+
Increasing returns of smart
cities
Virtuous reinforcement

Merci!
29/12/2016 44
44
Thank you!
Спасибо

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