2. Systems Thinking
for Water Sustainability:
Approaches for a
Climate-Changed World
Kathy Freas, Ph. D.
One Water Leadership Summit 24 September 2013

3. This Afternoon
• A few thoughts about systems
• How systems approaches are applicable to water sustainability
and climate change
• A couple of examples of how systems approaches are being
applied to enhance water and other resources sustainability in
the face of climate change
3

4. 4
If you manage resources for sustainability,
you manage a system

12. How are systems thinking and water sustainability linked?
ASCE: Civil Engineers in Sustainable Development:
—Promote multidisciplinary, whole system, integrated
and multi-objective goals in all phases of project
planning, design, construction, operations, and
decommissioning.

13. 13
Why is a systems approach so important now?

14. Climate change increases
uncertainty,
reduces resilience, and
threatens sustainability
for virtually all systems

15. Test and
monitor
Reassess
results and
changing
conditions
Identify
components
of the system
ID how they
are inter-
related
ID how they
are currently
affected by
climate
2
ID plausible
futures
Determine
how climate
is projected
to change
for the
system
Use best
practices
and tools
3
ID how
climate
change will
affect
climate-
sensitive
system
components
and
interactions
4
Identify
adaptation
options,
develop
portfolios,
prioritize
“Implement
adaptation
options”
5 6
A Systems Approach for Water Sustainability in the Face of Climate
Identify the
scale of
system in
question
Frame the
sustainability
challenge
and goals
Include
stakeholders
1
How do we do systems planning in the face of a changing
climate?

16. Systems Planning Enhances
Water Sustainability in a Climate-Changed World
• Climate Change and Population Growth Effects
on NYC Sewer and Wastewater Systems
NYCDEP
• Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study
US Bureau of Reclamation
16

17. 17
Scope of the Study
NYCDEP Population and Climate Change
• Consistent with NYC’s integrated climate
change and sustainability planning
• Define baseline and future conditions
• Analyze vulnerability, initially for
• Hunts Point WWTP
• Flushing Bay Watershed
• Identify and assess adaptation options
• Work with City and stakeholders to develop
citywide framework for adaptation

18. Two Future Climate Change Scenarios
• Central Estimate: midpoint of future
climate projections based on City 2009
report
• Precautionary Estimate: a plausible, yet
rare estimate of change — useful for
undertaking sensitivity analyses and
examining impact at locations where
rainfall increases might cause major
problemsNew York City Panel on Climate Change:
Climate Risk Information. Feb. 2009.

19. Plausible, Yet Rare … Hurricane Sandy
• Precautionary Estimate: Hurricane Sandy — that “plausible, yet
rare event--where extremes might cause major problems”
19
29th October 2012
• Storm surge approximately 14 feet above mean low water
• Losses estimated at $19 billion
• 1.6 billion gallons of partially or untreated sewage leaked into waterways
NYCDEP extended the assessment to include all watersheds, pump
stations and WWTPs and develop adaptations and cost for a system-wide
Adaptation Plan

20. Systems Analyses Include All Flood Pathways
and Equipment Inventory

21. Systems Assessment Results in City-wide Adaptation Plan
• Evaluation of specific climate risks for pilot watershed
and WW facilities for two plausible climate scenarios
• Plus Hurricane Sandy
• Plus evaluations of specific climate risks for all,
watersheds, pump stations and WWTPs
• Plus cost evaluations
...Leading to a System-wide Adaptation Plan

22. Systems Thinking for Sustainable Basin Management
A systems approach for the climate-changed future
of the Colorado River Basin
NPS Photograph

23. Reclamation and Stakeholders Partner for Basin Solutions
• 40 million people affected by
Colorado River System
(M&I, agriculture, hydropower,
Native American tribes and
communities, ecosystems,
recreation)
• Rapidly growing, semi-arid to
arid region – 14 years of drought
• WaterSmart — UCR and LCR
work with 7 States
• Increasing uncertainty —
climate risk creates water supply
and demand imbalances

24. Develop
Uncertainty
Approach
Colorado River Basin Study Integrated Systems Thinking
for Sustainable Basin Management
Assess
Current and
Future
Supply for
M&I, Energy,
Ag, Tribes,
Ecosystems,
Recreation
PHASE 1
Water
Supply
Assessment
Assess
Current and
Future
Demand for
M&I, Energy,
Ag, Tribes,
Ecosystems,
Recreation
Develop
Reliability
Metrics
Develop,
Evaluate, and
Refine
Opportunities
Assess
System
Reliability
Implement,
Measure, and
Adapt for a
Sustainable CRB
PHASE 4
Opportunities
and Adaptive
Management
PHASE 3
Systems
Performance
Measures
PHASE 2
Water
Demand
Assessment
Develop
Plausible
Future
Scenarios
Integrated Stakeholder Engagement
2010 Plan of Action: Sustainable Supplies through 2060

25. Study included assessment of multiple plausible scenarios and
climate projections
25
Precipitation
Change(%Δ)
2025 2055 2080
Temperature
Change(ΔC)
2025 2055 2080
2.50
20552025 2080

26. Bottom Line: Gap in Projected Supply and Demand

27. Options to Address Future Water Sustainability and Reduce
Supply-Demand Gaps

28. “Next Steps” for CRBS
• Options further categorized
• Municipal and Industrial Conservation and Reuse
• Agriculture Conservation and Water Transfers
• Environmental Flows and Recreational Flows
• Each category of options has an associated Work Group
comprising Reclamation, States, Tribes, and other stakeholders
that will review, prioritize, and look for opportunities to implement
options that support long-term sustainable resources (water,
energy, ecosystems, recreation and agriculture) for the Colorado
River Basin
• For the whole story please visit:
www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/ 28

29. Summary: Systems Thinking Can Enhance Water Sustainability in
the Face of Climate Change
• Includes and integrates system stakeholder
• Identifies appropriate system scale, interconnections, and
system sustainability goals
• Identifies and describes future uncertainties and plausible
climate change scenarios and effects on the system
• Identifies measures for sustainable system function
• Develops alternative solutions sets to achieve the goals and
measures
• Assesses ability of alternatives to meet goals and measures
• Enhances and integrates the value of sustainability measures
that apply to component projects of the system
29