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Microfinance An emerging asset class? By Erol Alaluf, Carol Rodrigues, Cagri Ilhan University of Toronto Nov. 24, 2009
 
A solution to end poverty? Or An emerging asset class?
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is Microfinance? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who are microfinance clients? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How poor are these people?
Why do poor people need financial services? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Brief History of Microfinance ,[object Object],[object Object]
How does Microfinance work? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Major centers of Microfinance
Regional distribution of MFIs Source: Microbanking Bulletin #18 Region Number of MFIs % of total Countries with the most in the region Africa 69 14% Ghana (13); Ethiopia (12)‏ Asia 117 24% Philippines (37); India (32)‏ ECA 98 20% Bosnia (13); Russia (11)‏ LAC 179 37% Peru (37); Ecuador (20); Bolivia (17)‏ MENA 24 5% Morocco (7); Egypt (6)‏
Regional distribution of MFIs
What kind of projects is microcredit used for? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Investing in microfinance
MFIs vs. Banks vs. NGOs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RISKS: the returns and risks vary depending on the investment vehicle, and the MFIs in which the fund invests. 1- Foreign Exchange Risk 2- Risk Assessment Problem 3- Default risk 4- Volatility
Risks: FX risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risks: Difficulties in risk assessment ,[object Object],[object Object]
Risks: Default ,[object Object],[object Object]
Risks: Volatility The volatility of MFI returns are lower than commercial banks in those markets because MFI funds are invested in the informal sector, so they don’t take macro-economic shocks in those countries on the chin as the banks do
Pension Funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pension funds -  Concerns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Attributes of an attractive investment offer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How MFIs are financed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenues Yield on gross portfolio, real (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 23.6 23.0 22.2 Africa 22.6 22.2 21.5 Asia 18.3 19.5 18.5 ECA 23.1 21.9 19.6 LAC 26.3 25.2 25.1 MENA 25.5 23.3 25.5
Overall Financial Performance Return on assets (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 1.0 1.6 1.5 Africa (1.2)‏ (0.8)‏ (0.6)‏ Asia 0.9 1.2 0.6 ECA 1.4 1.7 1.1 LAC 1.5 2.3 2.1 MENA 2.6 2.4 2.0
Overall Financial Performance II Return on equity (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 4.4 6.9 7.3 Africa (4.9)‏ (1.5)‏ (0.5)‏ Asia 4.4 6.8 5.0 ECA 4.4 6.3 6.2 LAC 5.9 8.9 9.3 MENA 5.8 4.9 7.9
Loans outstanding Average outstanding balance (USD) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 474 515 643 Africa 174 241 325 Asia 120 139 164 ECA 1,127 1,404 1,931 LAC 642 684 848 MENA 241 264 345
Risk and Liquidity Loan loss rate (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 0.9 0.9 1.0 Africa 1.4 1.7 1.5 Asia 0.6 0.7 0.9 ECA 0.4 0.5 0.3 LAC 1.2 1.3 1.7 MENA 0.3 0.2 0.5
Looking forward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expansion of MFIs Total Assets (MM USD) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 6.67  9.06 13.72 Africa 5.46 7.6 11.06 Asia 5.32 8.35 11.76 ECA 7.08 10.39 20.59 LAC 8.15 10.2 15.32 MENA 6.84 9.28 12.44
Expansion of MFIs
Mobile money ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Kiva
Retail investing vs. commercial investing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Grant money  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Presentation on Microfinance

  • 1. Microfinance An emerging asset class? By Erol Alaluf, Carol Rodrigues, Cagri Ilhan University of Toronto Nov. 24, 2009
  • 2.  
  • 3. A solution to end poverty? Or An emerging asset class?
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. How poor are these people?
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Major centers of Microfinance
  • 12. Regional distribution of MFIs Source: Microbanking Bulletin #18 Region Number of MFIs % of total Countries with the most in the region Africa 69 14% Ghana (13); Ethiopia (12)‏ Asia 117 24% Philippines (37); India (32)‏ ECA 98 20% Bosnia (13); Russia (11)‏ LAC 179 37% Peru (37); Ecuador (20); Bolivia (17)‏ MENA 24 5% Morocco (7); Egypt (6)‏
  • 14.
  • 16.
  • 17. RISKS: the returns and risks vary depending on the investment vehicle, and the MFIs in which the fund invests. 1- Foreign Exchange Risk 2- Risk Assessment Problem 3- Default risk 4- Volatility
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Risks: Volatility The volatility of MFI returns are lower than commercial banks in those markets because MFI funds are invested in the informal sector, so they don’t take macro-economic shocks in those countries on the chin as the banks do
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Revenues Yield on gross portfolio, real (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 23.6 23.0 22.2 Africa 22.6 22.2 21.5 Asia 18.3 19.5 18.5 ECA 23.1 21.9 19.6 LAC 26.3 25.2 25.1 MENA 25.5 23.3 25.5
  • 27. Overall Financial Performance Return on assets (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 1.0 1.6 1.5 Africa (1.2)‏ (0.8)‏ (0.6)‏ Asia 0.9 1.2 0.6 ECA 1.4 1.7 1.1 LAC 1.5 2.3 2.1 MENA 2.6 2.4 2.0
  • 28. Overall Financial Performance II Return on equity (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 4.4 6.9 7.3 Africa (4.9)‏ (1.5)‏ (0.5)‏ Asia 4.4 6.8 5.0 ECA 4.4 6.3 6.2 LAC 5.9 8.9 9.3 MENA 5.8 4.9 7.9
  • 29. Loans outstanding Average outstanding balance (USD) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 474 515 643 Africa 174 241 325 Asia 120 139 164 ECA 1,127 1,404 1,931 LAC 642 684 848 MENA 241 264 345
  • 30. Risk and Liquidity Loan loss rate (%) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 0.9 0.9 1.0 Africa 1.4 1.7 1.5 Asia 0.6 0.7 0.9 ECA 0.4 0.5 0.3 LAC 1.2 1.3 1.7 MENA 0.3 0.2 0.5
  • 31.
  • 32. Expansion of MFIs Total Assets (MM USD) - Median Values 2005 2006 2007 All 6.67  9.06 13.72 Africa 5.46 7.6 11.06 Asia 5.32 8.35 11.76 ECA 7.08 10.39 20.59 LAC 8.15 10.2 15.32 MENA 6.84 9.28 12.44
  • 34.
  • 35. Kiva
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.

Editor's Notes

  1. The answer is both!
  2. Presenter: Erol
  3. How they live with less than 2 dollars a day.
  4. Presenter: Cagri Out of 487 MFIs surveyed in 2007 by the Microbanking Bulletin
  5. Presenter: Either Erol or Carol
  6. Yields much higher because of higher perceived risk of default - un-collateraliized Interest rates also high to cover transaction costs
  7. As compared to a return on equity of 0% as of latest data in the US Savings and Loan industry
  8. However, each individual loan very small as % of total loan portfolio. Also, very little correlated with each other and with the wider macro-economy.
  9. Actual default rates are very low
  10. Presenter: Carol
  11. Presenter: Carol; Individuals   registered with mobile payment system can get funds transferred to their account via a secure text message. The phone can also be used to make payments to merchants’ accounts in the same way.
  12. - Hard for retail investors to access diversified funds - can be leveraged up to 2.5 times