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The brain is
fundamentally a
lazy piece of
meat.
“Gregory Berns
Fake Graph #1BrainDevelopment
Time – Lots of It
Fake Graph #2Information
Time
Two Fake GraphsBrainvs.Info
Time
It’s not
information
overload, it’s
filter failure.
Clay Shirkey
“
Multitasking is
the ability to screw
everything up
simultaneously.
Jeremy Clarkson
“
M
1
U
2
L
3
T
4
I
5
T
6
A
7
S
8
I
10
K
9
G
12
N
11
I
13
S
14
M
15
Y
16
T
17
H
18
I
19
C
20
A
21
L
22
2xas long to finish a single task
Up to 50%more errors
Overall: 40%drop in productivity
Brain fatigue
1REST 2EAT
3MOVE 4PLAN
5CHEAT
There can be as much
value in the blink of an eye
as in months of
rational analysis.
Malcolm Gladwell
“
A bat and ball cost
$1.10.
The bat costs $1
more than the ball.
How much does the
ball cost?
Linda is 31 years old, single,
outspoken, and very bright. She
majored in philosophy. As a
student, she was deeply concerned
with issues of discrimination and
social justice, and also participated
in antiwar demonstrations.
Bank Teller
Feminist
Bank
Teller
Tornados
Lightning
Accidents
Asthma
Botulism
Diabetes
vs.
Box A Box B
50 Yellow Balls
50 Green Balls
? Yellow Balls
? Green Balls
But there are also
unknown unknowns. There
are things we don't know
we don't know.“Donald Rumsfeld
1Surface temperature of the sun?
2The year of Alexander the Great’s
birth?
3Area of the Asian continent?
From Software Estimation by Steve McConnell (Microsoft Press, 2006)
and is © 2006 Steve McConnell. All rights reserved.
The average expert
was roughly as accurate
as a dart-throwing
chimpanzee.“Philip Tetlock
How old was Gandhi
when he died?
33.9
27.4 48.6
33.9
27.4 48.6
55.5
Actor-observer bias | Ambiguity effect | Anchoring | Anthropic bias | Attentional bias | Av
heuristic | Bandwagon effect | Beneffectance | Bias blind spot | Choice-supportive bias
Clustering illusion | Confabulation | Confirmation bias | Congruence bias | Conjunction
Consistency bias | Contrast effect | Cryptomnesia | Déformation professionnelle | Dunn
Kruger effect | Egocentric bias | Endowment effect | Exposure-suspicion bias | Extreme
| False consensus effect | Focusing effect | Forer effect | Framing | Frequency illusion |
Fundamental attribution error | Gambler's fallacy | Halo effect | Herd instinct | Hindsight
Hostile media effect | Hyperbolic discounting | Illusion of asymmetric insight | Illusion of
Illusion of transparency | Illusory correlation | Impact bias | Information bias | Ingroup b
Irrational escalation | Just-world phenomenon | Lake Wobegon effect | Loss aversion |
fallacy | Mere exposure effect | Modesty bias | Neglect of prior base rates effect | Negle
probability | Notational bias | Obsequiousness bias | Observer-expectancy effect | Omis
bias | Optimism bias | Outcome bias | Outgroup homogeneity bias | Overconfidence eff
Planning fallacy | Positive outcome bias | Post-purchase rationalization | Primacy effec
Projection bias | Pseudocertainty effect | Reactance | Recency effect | Reminiscence b
Rosy retrospection | Selective memory | Selective perception | Self-fulfilling prophecy |
serving bias | Status quo bias | Subadditivity effect | Suggestibility | Survivorship bias |
ustification | Telescoping effect | Texas sharpshooter fallacy | Trait ascription bias | Ultim
Douglas Hofstadter
Hofstadter's Law: It
always takes longer than
you expect, even when
you take into account
Hofstadter's Law.
“
We can be blind to
the obvious, and we are
also blind to our
blindness.
“Daniel Kahneman
1SLOW DOWN 2WBS IT
3GO OUTSIDE 4PRE-MORTEM
5BE SAD 6REMEMBER
Memory is
fiction… not just
a replaying, but
a re-writing.
“Daniel Levitin
Rest
Tired
Awake
Dream
Snore
Bed
Eat
Slumber
Sound
Comfort
Pillow
Wake
Night
Rest
Sleep
Aardvark
Night
Never memorize
something that you
can look up.“Albert Einstein
“Piers Steel
Motivation =
Expectancy x Value
Impulsiveness x Delay
Work expands
so as to fill the time
available for its
completion.
“Cyril Parkinson
1EXTERNALIZE 2BREAKDOWN
3WORST 1ST 4PUBLIC
5OBSTACLES 6FOCUS
The best way to
reduce stress in your
life is to stop
screwing up.
“Roy Baumeister
Blog, slides, references:
www.carsonpierce.com
carson@carsonpierce.com
@carsonpierce

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