Global Environment Outlook 5 - GEO5 PNUMA 2012

1. Environment for the future we want

2. First published by the United Nations Environment Programme in 2012
Copyright 2012, United Nations Environment Programme
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3. Environment for the future we want

6. Acknowledgements
This fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5) assessment Amir El-Sammak, Tom P. Evans, C. Max Finlayson,
report is a product of the strong dedication and extraordinary Erica Brown Gaddis, Nesreen Ghaddar, Keisha Garcia,
investment of numerous individuals, whose knowledge, Paul Roger Glennie, Yi Huang, Carol A. Hunsberger, Maria Ivanova,
expertise and insight helped shape this important body of Jill Jäger, Peter N. King, Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna, Bernice Lee,
work. UNEP acknowledges the contributions made by many Marc A. Levy, Lailai Li, Clever Mafuta, Ruben Mnatsakanian,
governments, individuals and institutions to the preparation and Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere, Alexandra C. Morel,
publication of this report. A full list of names of individuals and Begum Ozkaynak, Neeyati Patel, Renat Perelet, Laszlo Pinter,
institutions involved in the assessment process is included from Pierre Portas, Walter Rast, Asha Singh, Detlef P. van Vuuren,
pages 498–504. Special thanks are extended to: Roy Victor Watkinson and Joanna Noelia Kamiche Zegarra.
High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel Scientific Peer-Reviewers (Coordinated by
the Earth System Science Partnership)
Rajender Ahlawat, Hussein A. Al-Gunied, Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani,
Wahid Al-Shuely, Burcu Bursali, Mantang Cai, Sandra De Carlo, Keigo Akimoto, Mahmoud Ali, Erik Ansink, Masroor Ellahi Babar,
Jorge Laguna Celis, Guilherme da Costa, Raouf Dabbas, David Barkin, Janos Bogardi, Philippe Bourdeau, Josep Canadell,
Martijin Dadema, Idunn Eidheim, Prudence Galega, Nilkanth Ghosh, Graciela Ana Canziani, Andrea Birgit Chavez Michaelesen,
Rosario Gomez, Xia Guang, Han Huiskamp, Jos Lubbers, Kevin Cheung, Antonio Cruzado, S≈hobhakar Dhakal, Serigne Faye,
John Michael Matuszak, Samira Nateche, Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc, Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Emma Archer van Garderen,
Van Tai Nguyen, Jose Rafael Almonte Perdomo, Amadou Thierno Gaye, Mark O. Gessner, Evgeny Gordov,
Majid Shafie-Pour-Motlagh, Jiang Wei, Albert Williams and Dagmar Haase, Itsuki Handoh, Nick Harvey, Lars Hein,
Daniel Ziegerer. Gerhard J. Herndl, Shu-Li Huang, Falk Huettmann, Ada Ignaciuk,
Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Louise Jackson, Sharad Jain, Ian Jenkinson,
Science and Policy Advisory Board Rainer Krug, Nelson Lourenco, Angela M. Maharaj, Miyuki Nagashima,
Daiju Narita, Isabelle Niang, Patrick Nunn, Jay O’Keeffe,
Joseph Alcamo, Asma Ali Abahussain, Pinhas Alpert, Jean-Pierre Ometto, Ursula Oswald Spring, Claudia Pahl-Wostl,
Torkil Jonch Clausen, Ahmed Djoghlaf, Susanne Droege, Nirmalie Pallewatta, Henrique M. Pereira, Erika Pires Ramos,
Kejun Jiang, Nicholas King, Filipo Lansigan, Anne Larigauderie, Germán Poveda, Francesc Prenafeta, Seema Purushothaman,
Jacqueline McGlade, Luisa T. Molina, Toral Patel-Weynand, Dork Sahagian, Galia Selaya, Mika Sillanpaa, Maria Siwek, Erika Techera,
Nicolas Perritaz, Carlos A. Quesada, Emilio Lèbre La Rovere, Holm Tiessen, Klement Tockner, Aysun Uyar, Tracy Van Holt,
Chirapol Sintunawa, Sandra Torrusio, George Varughese and Stefano Vignudelli, Hassan Virji, Angela Wagener and Hong Yang.
Robert Watson.
Outreach Group
Data and Indicators Working Group
Adel Farid Abdel-Kader, Robert Barnes, Matthew Billot,
Asma Ali Abahussain, Ezgi Akpinar-Ferrand, Sandra de Carlo, Peter Browne, Bryan Coll, Richard Crompton, Ivica Cvetanovski,
Barbara Clark, Volodymyr Demkine, Alexander Gorobets, Salif Diop, Marie Daher, Silvia Giada, Peter Gilruth,
Eszter Horvath, Koffi Kouadio, Murari Lal, Samwiri Musisi-Nkambwe, Elisabeth Guilbaud-Cox, Suzanne Howard, Alexander Juras,
Ambinistoa Lucie Noasilalaonomenjanahary, Toral Patel-Weynand, Satwant Kaur, Fatoumata Keita-Ouane, Fanina Kodre-Alexander,
Muhammad Munir Sheikh, Ashbindu Singh, Anil Kumar Thanappan, Alejandro Laguna, Thor-Jürgen Greve Løberg, Graciela Metternicht,
Susan Tumwebaze, Héctor Tuy and Jaap van Woerden. Amos Muema, Nicole Lettington, Michael Logan, Angele Luh,
Kelvin Memia, Waiganjo Njoroge, Nick Nuttall, Neeyati Patel,
Coordinating Lead Authors Audrey Ringler, Stuart Roberts, Andrea Salinas, Ashbindu Singh,
Janet Fernandez Skaalvik, Anna Stabrawa, Mia Turner,
May Antoniette Ajero, Dolors Armenteras, Jane Barr, Frank Turyatunga, Isabelle Valentiny, Ronald Witt, Jinhua Zhang,
Ricardo Barra, Ivar Baste, James Dobrowolski, Nicolai Dronin, Laetitia Zobel and Shereen Zorba.
vi Acknowledgements

7. GEO-5 Funding
The Governments of Canada, Norway, Republic of Korea, the provided the necessary funding for the production of GEO-5 and
Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the Gwangju Metropolitan subsequent outreach activities. Contributions were also provided
City, Republic of Korea, together with the UNEP Environment Fund, by GRID-Arendal and the Development Bank of Latin America.
Global Environment Outlook 5
GEO-5 Core Team: Matthew Billot (Head of GEO Unit), Ludgarde Coppens, Volodymyr Demkine, Salif Diop, Peter Gilruth,
Jason Jabbour, Josephine Nyokabi Mwangi, Fatoumata Keita-Ouane, Brigitte Ohanga, Nalini Sharma
Regional Coordinating Team: Adel Farid Abdel-Kader, Fouad Abousamra, Silvia Giada, Graciela Metternicht, Charles Sebukeera,
Ashbindu Singh, Anna Stabrawa, Frank Turyatunga, Jaap van Woerden, Ronald Witt, Jinhua Zhang
Production Coordination: Jason Jabbour
Production Support: Sarah Abdelrahim, Sylvia Adams, Joana Akrofi, Joseph Alcamo, Chris Ambala, Liana Archaia-Atanasova,
Suzanne Bech, Charles Davies, Tessa Goverse, Loise Kinuthia, Fanina Kodre, Sunday Leonard, Kelvin Memia, Monika G. MacDevette,
Patrick M’mayi, Edwin Mwanyika, Trang Nguyen, Thierry De Oliveira, Audrey Ringler, Tunnie Srisakulchairak, Erick Litswa,
Mick Wilson, Shereen Zorba
UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC): Mari Bieri, Satu Glaser, Maxwell Gomera, Abisha Mapendembe,
Alison M. Rosser, Jörn Scharlemann, Matt J. Walpole
Global Resources Information Database Centre, Norway (GRID-Arendal): Björn Alfthan, John Crump, Lawrence Hislop,
Tiina Kurvits, Thor-Jürgen Greve Løberg, Clever Mafuta, Riccardo Pravettoni, Peter Prokosch, Petter Sevaldsen, Janet Fernandez Skaalvik
GEO-5 E-peer-review System: Herb Caudill, Shane Kunkle
Data Support: Andrea de Bono, Dominique del Pietro, Stefan Schwarzer, Jaap van Woerden
Maps and Graphics: Riccardo Pravettoni (GRID-Arendal), UNEP/GRID-Geneva, Mattias Turini, Nieves López Izquierdo, Audrey Ringler
Editorial Team: Bart Ullstein, Helen de Mattos, Christine Hawkins, Catherine P. McMullen, Jason Jabbour, Jörn Scharlemann
Design and Layout: GRID-Arendal, Ali Cherri
Editorial and Outreach Coordination: Neeyati Patel
Acknowledgements vii

8. Contents
Acknowledgements vi
Foreword xvi
Preface xvii
Introduction xviii
Part 1: State and Trends of the Environment 1
Drivers 3
Atmosphere 31
Land 65
Water 97
Biodiversity 133
Chemicals and Waste 167
An Earth System Perspective 193
Review of Data Needs 215
Part 2: Policy Options 231
Africa 233
Asia and the Pacific 259
Europe 289
Latin America and the Caribbean 317
North America 349
West Asia 373
Regional Summary 399
Part 3: Global Responses 417
Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation 419
Global Responses 457
The GEO-5 Process 489
Acronyms and Abbreviations 493
Contributors 498
Glossary 505
Index 520
viii Contents

9. Figures
Chapter 1: Drivers Chapter 3: Land
The demographic transition........................................................7 Area in use for cropland and pasture in 2009, by region,
Urban population, 1950–2050...................................................8 and global change between 1960 and 2010..........................68
Change in population density, 1990–2005.................................9 Area harvested in 2010 and the change between 2001
Change in economic output, 1990–2005..................................10 and 2010, selected crops......................................................70
A simple interpretation of the environmental Kuznets curve.........12 Average food supply in 2007 and the change between
Change in meat supply by region, 1960–2007..........................13 1998 and 2007, by region.....................................................71
Growth in population, GDP, trade and CO2 emissions, Change in forest area by region, 1990–2010.............................72
1990–2008..........................................................................19 Global extent of drylands and human-induced dryland
The transfer of CO2 emissions between developed and degradation..........................................................................74
developing countries, 1990–2010........................................21 UNCCD operational objectives and achievements, 2010............75
The great acceleration after the Second World War....................22 Changes in Arctic vegetation, 1982–2005.................................77
Urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta, China, 1990–2009......78
Chapter 2: Atmosphere Distribution of the urban population of developing countries,
Impacts of and links between selected substances emitted by city size ...........................................................................78
to the atmosphere................................................................33 Food security and environmental goals for agriculture by 2050......80
Trends in temperature change and atmospheric CO2 Projected changes in sub-Saharan African crop yields due
concentrations, 1850–2010..................................................37 to climate change, 2050.......................................................81
Temperature change over the 20th century................................37 Change in global population and in meat, fish and
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent in winter and autumn, seafood supplies, 1992–2007..............................................82
1979–2010..........................................................................38 Clear-cut deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon,
Figure 2.5 Trends in African and South and West Asian 1988–2011.......................................................................83
rainfall, May-September, 1960-1998.....................................38 Area under cultivation for selected crops in humid tropical
Figure 2.6 Trends in fossil fuel emissions, calculated and countries, 1960–2010..........................................................84
IPCC scenarios, 1990–2015..................................................39
Figure 2.7 The emissions gap....................................................40 Chapter 4: Water
Figure 2.8 Regional trends in sulphur dioxide emissions, Annual average water scarcity in major river basins,
1850–2050..........................................................................42 1996–2005........................................................................102
Areas at risk and timeframe for acidification damage in Asia........43 Current and projected water withdrawals by sector,
Regional trends in emissions of nitrogen oxides and 2000–2050........................................................................103
ammonia, 1850–2050 .........................................................45 Global annual groundwater depletion, 2000...........................104
Trends in nitrogen deposition to protected areas, 2000–2030......46 Annual global and regional water footprint, 1996–2005..........105
National ambient air quality standards and WHO guidelines Global irrigation efficiencies, 2000.........................................106
for PM10..............................................................................48 Virtual water imports, exports and flows around the world,
Urban PM10 trends in selected regions and cities, 1993–2009 .....48 1996–2005........................................................................106
Sources of ozone over polluted regions of the northern People affected by and damages associated with floods
hemisphere, 1850 and 2000.................................................49 and droughts, 1980–2010..................................................107
Regional changes in concentrations of surface ozone, Global density of medium to large dams.................................108
1960–2000..........................................................................50 Estimated risk of arsenic in drinking water, based on
Projected changes in surface ozone concentrations over hydrogeological conditions.................................................109
polluted regions of the northern hemisphere, 2000–2050.....51 Faecal coliform concentrations in rivers near major cities –
Consumption of ozone-depleting substances, 1986–2009........52 an indicator of waterborne pathogens, 1990–2011 .................110
Reduction of ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere, Population without access to improved sanitation
1994–2009..........................................................................52 compared to MDG target, 1990–2015.................................111
Antarctic ozone hole extent, 1980–2010..................................52 World hypoxic and eutrophic coastal areas, 2010....................112
The World Avoided modelled UV index, 1975, 2020 and 2065......53 Trends in organochlorine contamination in selected
Leaded petrol phase-out, 2002 and 2011.................................55 deep-sea fish species, 1995–2005.....................................113
Petrol and blood lead levels in Sweden following the Threats to water security with and without infrastructure
phase-out of lead in petrol, 1976–2004................................56 investment, 2000 ..............................................................115
Blood lead levels in the United States following the Population without access to improved drinking water,
phase-out of lead in petrol, 1976–2008................................56 1990–2015.......................................................................... 116
Projected effects of measures to reduce CO2, methane and black Cholera cases by region, 1989–2009......................................117
carbon emissions in relation to a reference scenario..............59 CO2 concentrations and ocean acidification in the
Atmospheric brown cloud over part of South Asia......................60 North Pacific, 1960–2010...................................................120
Contents ix

10. Thermal power and hydropower plant locations and water Recent flood events in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region..........202
stress levels in five countries of South and South East Asia.......121 Forest fires in Canada, 1920-1999..........................................205
Progress in the development and implementation of World shale gas basins identified by the US Energy
integrated water management plans....................................122 Information Agency.............................................................205
Map of 18 regional seas and 64 large marine The ecological footprint and biocapacity of regions, 2002..........206
ecosystems, 2011..............................................................124 Global material extraction, 1900–2005..................................207
International river basins, 2000..............................................125 Conceptual description of planetary boundaries where
Freshwater conflict by type of issue, 1948–1999 and the boundary is set to avoid the crossing of a critical
2000–2008........................................................................126 threshold in an Earth System process..................................208
Transition phases...................................................................209
Chapter 5: Biodiversity
Major threats to vertebrates listed as critically endangered, Chapter 8: Review of Data Needs
endangered or vulnerable on the IUCN Red List....................139 Example of a country snapshot on environment statistics,
Biodiversity indicator trends ..................................................141 from Uganda.......................................................................226
Numbers of vertebrates globally threatened by National environment statistics programmes and thematic
overexploitation, 2010........................................................142 coverage, 2007...................................................................228
Trends in the state of global fishery stocks, 1950–2006..........142
The ecological footprint, 1961–2007......................................144 Chapter 9: Africa
Living Planet Index, 1970–2007.............................................145 Exposure and vulnerability to floods in sub-Saharan Africa,
Red List Indices of species survival for all species of birds, 1980–2010........................................................................235
mammals, amphibians and corals, 1980–2010 ..................145 Food insecurity in selected Southern African cities,
Relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem services 2008–2009........................................................................235
and human well-being........................................................146 Selected strategies from the policy options for strengthening
Red List Indices of species survival for birds and mammals key components of capacity................................................254
used for food and medicine, 1988–2008............................147
Distribution and conservation status of medicinal plant Chapter 10: Asia and the Pacific
species assessed for the IUCN Red List, by region, 2009.......... 147 Selected climate change policies............................................266
Commitments to manage alien invasive species, Selected biodiversity policies.................................................269
1970–2010........................................................................151 Selected freshwater policies...................................................272
Extent of nationally designated protected areas, Selected chemical and waste policies.....................................276
1990–2010 .......................................................................152 Selected governance policies.................................................278
Proportion of each terrestrial ecoregion covered by
protected areas, 2011.........................................................153 Chapter 11: Europe
Language endangerment as a share of all languages, 2010.........155 Sectoral trends and projections for
The number and type of access and benefit-sharing EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions, 1990–2020....................295
measures, 2011.................................................................156 EU Emissions Trading System cap, 2005–2050.......................296
Scenarios of species change ..................................................158 Electricity capacity in the EU-27 from biomass, on-shore
wind and photovoltaic sources, 2005–2010........................297
Chapter 6: Chemicals and Waste Passenger cars and light-duty trucks meeting
Transmission of national reports by Parties to the Basel Euro standards...................................................................299
Convention, 1999–2009.....................................................173 Euro-based standards and their adoption in Asia,
Chemical sales by country, 2009............................................174 1995–2018........................................................................300
Life-cycle analysis of chemicals .............................................176 European sulphur dioxide emission reductions,
PCBs in beached plastics........................................................177 1980–2004........................................................................301
DDT levels in humans, 1960–2008.........................................179 Complex links between objectives and actors involved
Trends in two PCBs from air monitoring data at two sites in managing the Tisza Basin................................................303
in the northern hemisphere, 1995–2005.............................179 Agricultural use of nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P) and
potassium (K) in Denmark, 1960–2007...............................304
Chapter 7: An Earth System Perspective Varying water tariff structures in selected European
Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations...........................195 countries...............................................................................305
Examples of regime shifts resulting from different drivers Moving up the waste hierarchy...............................................306
and feedbacks....................................................................198 A life-cycle approach to resource efficiency.............................306
Observed change in annual mean surface air temperature, Trends in municipal solid waste treatment in the EU,
1960–2009........................................................................199 1995–2008...........................................................................307
x Contents

11. Sites designated under the Habitats Directive and Population and income projections in the scenario
the Birds Directive, 1995–2009..........................................309 literature, 2000–2050 .......................................................427
Conservation status of EU habitats and species, 2008.............310 Emissions and temperature scenarios.....................................429
European forest area and status, by region, 2010....................311 Scenarios for sulphur emissions ............................................429
An example of primary energy use and annual change
Chapter 12: Latin America and the Caribbean in CO2 emissions in sustainable world scenarios..................431
The core constituents of environmental governance................320 Food consumption and child undernourishment under
A governance framework for large marine ecosystems.............323 different scenarios..............................................................433
Population with access to improved sources of drinking water......326 Trends in land use, 1970–2050..............................................433
Population with access to improved sanitation........................327 Water withdrawals under different scenarios, 2000–2050.........436
Estimated population density in Latin America and the Water withdrawals under conventional world and
Caribbean, 2010 ................................................................328 sustainable world scenarios, 2005–2050............................437
Common ground for sustainability..........................................339 Water stress under current conditions and for 2050 under
conventional and sustainable world scenarios ....................438
Chapter 13: North America Changes in the extent of forest up to 2050 in different
The Great Lakes Basin............................................................363 global scenarios, and estimated rates of species loss .........439
Proposed renewable energy zones, potential transmission Options for reducing biodiversity loss by 2050........................440
expansion and the growth of wind power in Texas................368 Marine catches with and without a reduction in fishing
effort, by region, 1950–2050..............................................441
Chapter 14: West Asia
Priorities for action in West Asia.............................................376 Chapter 17: Global Responses
Domestic water supply and sanitation in West Asia, Growth in ratification of environmental treaties,
1990–2015........................................................................377 1971–2011........................................................................464
Primary energy consumption in West Asia, 2004–2008...........385 The Environment Fund, 1973–2009........................................466
Reclaimed land in Bahrain, 1963–2008..................................392 GEF portfolio and co-financing allocations by focal area,
1991–2010........................................................................468
Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation OECD countries’ aid commitments to UNCCD, CBD and
Conventional world and sustainable world scenarios.............422 UNFCCC, 1998–2009 .........................................................469
Layers of transformation.........................................................423 Scenarios projecting the impacts of environmental risks
Twin challenge.......................................................................424 on human development, 1980–2050..................................470
Contents xi

12. Tables
Chapter 1: Drivers Mutually reinforcing outcomes through effective
Demographic data, 2011............................................................6 implementation of selected policy options.........................238
International migration, 1950–2100...........................................8 Estimated numbers of low-income households likely
to benefit from payment for ecosystem services in
Chapter 2: Atmosphere developing countries within the next two decades..............243
Atmospheric issues affecting achievement of the Selected regional approaches.................................................244
Millennium Development Goals...........................................34
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related Chapter 10: Asia and the Pacific
to atmospheric issues..........................................................35 Policies selected for analysis..................................................265
Concentrations of greenhouse gases, 2005, 2009 and 2010.......38 Transferability of priority policies in Asia and the Pacific............282
Global burden of disease due to particulate air pollution...........47
Progress towards goals.............................................................61 Chapter 11: Europe
Country groupings used in various environment-related
Chapter 3: Land reporting and policy initiatives in Europe............................292
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related Selected themes, goals and policy options and examples
to land................................................................................73 of success.........................................................................294
Plantation area in 2010 and the increase between 2000
and 2010, by region ............................................................73 Chapter 12: Latin America and the Caribbean
Estimates of global wetland area..............................................76 Environmental governance case studies..................................321
Timber and fibre consumption, 2002 and 2008.........................85 Water case studies.................................................................324
Progress towards goals.............................................................89 Biodiversity case studies........................................................330
Land case studies in Latin America and the Caribbean............335
Chapter 4: Water Climate change case studies...................................................338
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes Links and co-benefits across selected policies........................342
related to water.................................................................101
Observed and projected impacts of climate change on Chapter 13: North America
key hydrological variables..................................................118 Priority themes and related global goals.................................351
Progress towards goals...........................................................127
Chapter 14: West Asia
Chapter 5: Biodiversity Energy savings and peak-power reductions in Kuwait..............388
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes Renewable energy targets for selected countries.....................390
related to biodiversity........................................................138
Progress towards goals...........................................................159 Chapter 15: Regional Summary
Priority themes by region........................................................401
Chapter 6: Chemicals and Waste
Selected internationally agreed goals related to Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation
chemicals and waste.........................................................172 Goals and targets on the road to 2050....................................426
Quantities of obsolete pesticides...........................................181 Selected indicators for the conventional and sustainable
Global inventory of radioactive waste, 2004............................182 world scenarios.................................................................434
Progress towards goals ..........................................................187 Overview of the gap between the conventional and sustainable
world scenarios and important measures to close the gap.......442
Chapter 8: Review of Data Needs Threshold 21 scenario results for key indicators......................443
Environmental Data Explorer: data providers...........................219
Selected regional initiatives and priorities for Chapter 17: Global Responses
environmental information.................................................225 Core elements of the UN system-wide environmental
response regime................................................................462
Chapter 9: Africa Financial resources available to selected global
Regionally selected policy goals.............................................236 multilateral environmental agreements, 2010....................467
xii Contents

13. Boxes
Chapter 1: Drivers Chapter 5: Biodiversity
Facilitating the demographic transition through Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 and the Aichi
education................................................................................... 7 Biodiversity Targets ...........................................................136
Expressing prosperity beyond GDP..........................................11 Biodiversity vision: a world in harmony with nature.................139
Greenhouse gas emissions and international trade...................21 Global Biodiversity Outlook....................................................140
Information and communication technologies: The ecological footprint: an indicator of the pressures
a vicious cycle?...................................................................24 on biodiversity..................................................................144
Conclusions of driver-centred thinking......................................26 Genetic modification .............................................................150
Examples of community management.....................................154
Chapter 2: Atmosphere
Climate change........................................................................36 Chapter 6: Chemicals and Waste
Sulphur pollution.....................................................................41 Multilateral environmental agreements and the sound
Atmospheric nitrogen pollution................................................43 management of chemicals.................................................171
Particulate matter....................................................................46 Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI) (WSSD 2002)
Tropospheric ozone..................................................................49 Paragraph 23.....................................................................173
Stratospheric ozone.................................................................51 Waste in the OECD .................................................................175
Lead in petrol...........................................................................54 Waste generated on board ship..............................................178
Complementary actions to limit near-term climate change Human health, the environment and persistent
and improve air quality........................................................59 organic pollutants .............................................................178
Atmospheric brown clouds.......................................................60 Funding: an ongoing challenge ..............................................186
Chapter 3: Land Chapter 7: An Earth System Perspective
Eradicating hunger...................................................................68 Examples of Earth System interactions influenced by
Forests.....................................................................................71 human activities................................................................196
Restoring wetlands along the Mississippi..................................79 Regime shifts ........................................................................198
The Mau Forests complex, Kenya..............................................79 Antarctic biodiversity.............................................................200
Brazil’s forest policy and soy moratorium..................................83 The ecological footprint .........................................................206
Palm oil expansion and rainforest destruction in Indonesia.........84 Innovative response to a crisis................................................210
Sustainable dryland management............................................88 The transition to improved governance of the
Great Barrier Reef..............................................................210
Chapter 4: Water
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation Paragraph 26c..............100 Chapter 8: Review of Data Needs
Water scarcity........................................................................102 The three principal data gaps on drivers of global
Water demand.......................................................................103 environmental change.......................................................217
Water-use efficiency...............................................................105 Glacier monitoring in the Himalayas........................................222
Extreme events......................................................................107
Dams and river fragmentation................................................108 Chapter 9: Africa
Groundwater contamination...................................................109 The Sangha Tri-National Landscape........................................239
Pathogenic contamination......................................................110 Collaborative water management: Organization for the
Nutrient pollution and eutrophication.....................................111 Development of the Senegal River Basin.............................239
Marine litter...........................................................................112 A network of managers in the Mediterranean...........................240
Toxic chemicals......................................................................113 Successful pollution management in the Western
Ballast water and invasive species..........................................114 Indian Ocean.....................................................................242
Water security........................................................................114 The Ambatovy Business and Biodiversity Offsets
Access to improved water.......................................................115 Programme (BBOP), Madagascar .......................................242
Water-related diseases...........................................................116 Mozambique: A pilot project in the voluntary carbon market......243
Diarrhoea in children in Africa.................................................117 Action and commitment at regional and national levels...........245
Climate change impacts on human security.............................118 Sustainable land management in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia.......245
Sea level rise.........................................................................119 The land rights challenge in Mozambique...............................246
Ocean acidification................................................................119 Recognizing a human right to water can promote
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill...............................................121 fairer access .....................................................................247
The impacts of drought on hydropower production..................122 Butterfly farming in Arabuko Forest Reserve............................248
Integrated water management................................................122 Mapping landscapes in souther Cameroon.............................249
Competition and conflict .......................................................125 Rainwater harvesting in Ethiopia............................................249
Contents xiii

14. Enhancing traditional water harvesting practices in Payment for ecosystem services (PES) in support of
Burkina Faso.....................................................................250 existing policies................................................................332
Mangrove restoration in Mauritius..........................................251 Key facts about land conditions in Latin America and
Social learning and knowledge in community-based the Caribbean....................................................................333
adaptation strategies.........................................................252 Key facts on land degradation in Latin America and
Managing acid mine drainage in the Olifants catchment............252 the Caribbean....................................................................336
Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in
Chapter 10: Asia and the Pacific the Caribbean....................................................................337
Selected climate change goal: United Nations Framework Brazil’s Bolsa Verde................................................................340
Convention on Climate Change Article 3 Paragraphs 1–3........262 Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean.............................341
Selected biodiversity goal: Convention on Biological
Diversity Article 1...............................................................263 Chapter 13: North America
Selected freshwater goal: Johannesburg Plan of The Quebec and British Columbia carbon taxes.......................354
Implementation Paragraph 26c..........................................263 Ontario: a comprehensive approach to energy........................355
Selected goal for chemicals and waste: Johannesburg Plan Maryland’s Smart Growth programme: financial incentives
of Implementation Paragraphs 22 and 23...........................264 and planning.....................................................................361
Selected governance goal: Johannesburg Declaration Canadian land-use reserves in Ontario and British
on Sustainable Development Paragraph 5..........................264 Columbia: command and control........................................361
Removing fossil fuel subsidies in Asia and the Pacific.............267 Protection and management of the Great Lakes Basin.......................363
Adaptation policies in the Maldives .......................................268 Texas: a rapid expansion of wind energy.................................368
Pacific islands: locally managed marine areas ........................269
Promoting sustainable use of biodiversity: payment for Chapter 14: West Asia
ecosystem services in China and Viet Nam.........................271 Yemen’s integrated water resources management plan.............379
Uzbekistan: improving the capacity of existing reservoirs Leak detection and repair of the distribution system
in Central Asia...................................................................273 in Bahrain.........................................................................380
The Yellow River, China: balancing environmental and Irrigation management in Saudi Arabia...................................381
human needs through quotas and pricing reform ...............274 Protection and rehabilitation of rangelands in Syria................383
Phase-out of ozone-depleting substances in India...................275 Sustainable agricultural development in Bahrain...................... 383
Ship breaking in South Asia: implementing a new Integrated agricultural management in Al-Karak, Jordan..........385
international environmental agreement..............................277 Energy conservation in buildings in Kuwait.............................387
Low-carbon green growth in the Republic of Korea Solar water heaters in Jordan and the Occupied
and China..........................................................................278 Palestinian Territories........................................................389
Participation in the management of natural resources Coastal and Area Management Programme (CAMP)
in India and Nepal.............................................................279 in Lebanon........................................................................392
Marawah Biosphere Reserve, Abu Dhabi, United
Chapter 11: Europe Arab Emirates ...................................................................393
Greenhouse gas reduction pledges for the post-2012 period.......295 Fish stock enhancement in Bahrain.........................................394
The German Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff scheme..............298 The Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the
Transferring innovative climate insurance schemes ................298 Environment (CAMRE)........................................................395
Stockholm’s air quality management policies in a
low-emission zone.............................................................302 Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation
Integrated Tisza River Basin Management Plan........................303 A possible vision of the world on a path towards
Nitrogen accounting in Denmark ............................................304 sustainability in 2050........................................................425
Water metering in Armenia ....................................................305 Integrated simulation of the 2050 targets for climate,
Extended producer responsibility...........................................306 food and land....................................................................434
Ukraine’s national ecological network ....................................310 The sustainable world scenario for water withdrawals.............437
Conserving high nature-value farmland in Portugal..................311 Integrated global analysis of sustainability scenarios..............443
India’s National Watershed Development Project for
Chapter 12: Latin America and the Caribbean Rainfed Areas (NDWPRA) – adaptive governance
Environmental governance.....................................................320 and policy-making at the sub-national level........................450
Levels of governance in Latin America and the Caribbean........320
Threats to biodiversity in Latin America and the Caribbean........329 Chapter 17: Global Responses
Key features of the ecosystem approach to biodiversity Diffusion of policy tools worldwide – the case of strategic
management.....................................................................331 environmental assessment................................................465
xiv Contents

15. Identifying financial flows for environmental response............466 Technology Mechanism at the UNFCCC....................................476
International aid for the environment......................................468 Response option 4: Supporting technological innovation
Response option 1: Framing environmental goals in the and development..............................................................477
context of sustainable development and monitoring Response option 5: Strengthening rights-based approaches
outcomes..........................................................................471 and access to environmental justice...................................479
Response option 2: Enhancing the effectiveness of Social learning ......................................................................480
global institutions.............................................................473 Cities and climate action........................................................481
Response option 3: Investing in enhanced capacities Response option 6: Deepening and broadening
for addressing environmental change ................................475 stakeholder engagement...................................................482
Contents xv

16. Foreword
Anyone wishing to understand the pace and scale of
environmental change will find UNEP’s flagship assessment
report – Global Environment Outlook-5: Environment for the
future we want – compelling reading. Equally, anyone seeking
a paradigm shift that can bring us closer to a truly sustainable
world will find this latest edition of the GEO series rich in
opportunities and policy options.
GEO-5 is designed to be the most comprehensive, impartial and
in-depth assessment of its kind. It reflects the collective body
of recent scientific knowledge, drawing on the work of leading
experts, partner institutions and the vast body of research
undertaken within and beyond the United Nations system.
The launch of GEO-5 coincides with the final stages of preparation
for the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), taking
place two decades after the Rio Earth Summit that set the agenda for
contemporary thinking about sustainable development. The report
underlines the reasons why world leaders need to show decisive
leadership in Rio and beyond. It highlights the state, trends and
trajectories of the planet and its people, and showcases more than
100 initiatives, projects and policies from across the globe that are
pioneering positive environmental change.
In a world with a growing population, glaring inequality
and a precarious environmental base, it is imperative that
Governments collaborate to balance the economic, social and BAN Ki-moon
environmental strands of sustainable development. GEO-5
highlights not just the perils of delaying action, but the options Secretary General of the United Nations
that exist to transform sustainable development from theory United Nations Headquarters, New York
to reality. I commend GEO-5 to all who wish to invest in this
generational opportunity to create the future we want. May 2012
xvi Foreword

17. Preface
Since the days of the ancient Egyptians, Greeks and Chinese,
through the Islamic Golden Age and the Renaissance,
philosophers and scientists have sought to make sense of the
forces and processes of the natural world and humanity’s place
within them. In the past half century or so, this endeavour has
accelerated as concerns over the impacts of industrialization
have emerged and more recently been fuelled by a growing
realization that people – once marginal influencers of
environmental change – are now its principal drivers, from
biodiversity loss to climate change.
The Global Environment Outlook: Environment for the future we
want (GEO-5) is part of this broad sweep of history, and is a major
contribution to the public understanding of the way ecosystems
and the atmosphere are responding to patterns of unprecedented
consumption and production – patterns taking place on a planet of
7 billion people, rising to more than 9 billion by 2050. Its findings
on the state of the planet, globally and regionally, are unsurprisingly
sobering and cause for profound concern – they should serve as
a reminder to world leaders and delegates attending the Rio+20
Summit in June as to why they are there.
Bridging the science-policy interface remains problematic – themes for Rio+20. The summit is about taking stock and
translating the findings of science into environmental law and renewing commitments, but it is also about the integration of
policy making has been a challenge stretching back through Rio scientific findings in evidence-based policy making and the
1992 to the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment re-engagement of society in endeavours to move the world on
of 1972. Encouragingly, a growing scientific understanding and to a sustainable path.
technological progress have not fallen on deaf ears; they have
inspired a myriad of treaties and agreements covering such When nations take stock of sustainable development 20 years
issues as the trade in endangered species, the protection of the after the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, the limited achievements and
ozone layer, climate change, biodiversity loss and the banning of endemic knowledge divide between North and South should be
persistent organic pollutants. high on the agenda.
GEO-5 adds new dimensions to the discourse through its In summary, science must underpin policy making, but as five
assessment of progress towards meeting internationally agreed GEO assessments and reports have shown, it is not enough.
goals and identifying gaps in their achievement. Out of 90 goals Realizing and implementing science-based policies is where the
and objectives assessed, significant progress could only be shown real gap resides, and this can be bridged not by more satellite
for four. Of equal concern, progress could not be appraised for 14 observations, field monitoring, computations and scenario
goals and objectives simply because data were lacking. modeling but by courage, decisiveness and political leadership
that matches the reality that GEO-5 confirms.
Another GEO-5 innovation is that it highlights a regional selection
of more than a hundred policies and transformational actions
that have been tried and tested successfully in countries and
communities around the world. These policy options give decision
makers tools that could be adapted to their own settings.
Achim Steiner
Such policy options are part of a broad sweep of emerging work
termed the Green Economy, which in the context of sustainable United Nations Under-Secretary General and Executive Director
development and poverty eradication is one of the two major United Nations Environment Programme
Preface xvii

18. Introduction
THE EARTH SYSTEM CONTEXT scientific and conservation communities. As an initial step,
The Earth System provides the basis for all human societies the conference established UNEP to catalyse international
and their economic activities. People need clean air to breathe, and UN-wide environmental action. Twenty years on, the
safe water to drink, healthy food to eat, energy to produce and United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
transport goods, and natural resources that provide the raw in Rio de Janeiro approved Agenda 21, a blueprint for the
materials for all these services. However, the 7 billion humans introduction of sustainable development, a concept first
alive today are collectively exploiting the Earth’s resources at articulated as “satisfying the needs of the present generation
accelerating rates and intensities that surpass the capacity of its without compromising the chance for future generations to
systems to absorb wastes and neutralize the adverse effects on satisfy theirs” in the World Commission on Environment and
the environment. In fact, the depletion or degradation of several Development 1987 report Our Common Future. In the second
key resources has already constrained conventional development decade of the new century, Agenda 21 remains a vibrant and
in some parts of the world. relevant guide with many of its precepts yet to be applied,
particularly in regard to consumption.
Within the Earth System – which acts as a single, self-regulating
system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human The 2000 Millennium Summit, which brought world leaders
components – the effects of human activities can be detected together to discuss the role of the United Nations at the turn of
at a planetary scale (Chapter 7). These have led scientists to the 21st century, produced eight Millennium Development Goals
define a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, based on (MDGs) to make up for shortcomings that resulted from a focus
evidence that atmospheric, geological, hydrological, biological on economic objectives while international development stalled.
and other Earth System processes are being altered by human The MDGs address the integration of sustainable development
activity. The most readily recognized changes include a rise in principles into country policies and programmes and aim to
global temperatures and sea levels, and ocean acidification, all reverse the impoverishment of human and environmental
associated with the increase in emissions of greenhouse gases, resources, while setting time-bound targets and establishing
especially carbon dioxide and methane (Chapters 2 and 4). Other metrics. MDG 7, which specifically addresses the environment, set
human-induced changes include extensive deforestation and targets to make significant reductions in the rate of biodiversity
land clearance for agriculture and urbanization, causing species loss by 2010, to halve the proportion of the population without
extinctions as natural habitats are destroyed (Chapters 3 and 5). sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by
2015, and to achieve a significant improvement in the lives of at
While humans have long been aware of the effects of their least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020.
activities on the local environment, only in the last few
decades has it become apparent that these activities can As understanding has developed about the relationship between
cumulatively affect the global environment (Chapters 1–7). In human well-being and environmental change, so have the
the past, anthropogenic pressures on natural resources were attempts to make it relevant for policy makers. The dependence
less pervasive and the Earth’s atmosphere, land and water of social development and economic activity on environmental
could carry the load of human consumption and production. services and stability is increasingly understood. An economy
However, in the second half of the 20th century the effects of functions within a society, or within and between societies, using
many diverse local changes compounded at accelerating rates natural and human resources to produce marketable goods and
to produce global consequences. Globalization allows goods services. At the same time, societies survive and thrive within the
to be produced under circumstances that consumers would environment determined by the physical limits of atmosphere,
refuse to tolerate in their own community, and permits waste land, water, biodiversity and other material resources.
to be exported out of sight, enabling people to ignore both its
magnitude and its impacts. However, just as waste has – literally Interacting environmental, social and economic forces produce
– reached the ends of the Earth, environmental concerns have a complex system that has been the focus of substantial
become globalized as well (Chapter 1). research, but it is only in the last two decades that information
and communication technologies have enabled researchers
These threats to the Earth System have led the science to model and explore the intricate complexities of the whole
community and policy makers to work together more closely to Earth System.
meet the challenge in a sustainable and collaborative manner.
Insights gained from the ability to appreciate the power and
THE SCIENCE-POLICY CONTEXT nuance of Earth System complexities demand a new perception
At the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human of the responsibilities and accountabilities of nation states
Environment, 119 nations came together for the first time towards planetary stewardship (Chapter 16 and 17). This not
to discuss serious environmental concerns raised by the only requires the realization of environment and development
xviii Introduction

19. goals and targets but also the development of specific goals overarching socio-economic forces that exert varying degrees of
aimed at global sustainability, addressing the needs of the most influence, or pressures, on the environment. Chapter 1 identifies
vulnerable as well as the wants of the more powerful. and describes these major root causes of the environmental
challenges and provides some suggestions for policy
The elaboration of such goals requires scientifically credible interventions.
indicators and information to guide, track and report progress
(Chapter 8). Integrated environmental assessments are tools, within Using the drivers, pressures, state, impacts and responses
a broad and deep toolkit, that have been developed to meet this (DPSIR) analytical framework (Figure 1), the GEO-5 assessment
need. However, for the most part, policy developments and revisions presents the latest state and trends of the global environment
have failed to adequately incorporate assessment findings and under the themes of atmosphere, land, water, biodiversity
other scientific information into international policy priorities. and, for the first time in the GEO series, chemicals and waste
(Chapters 2–6).
BACKGROUND
The main goal of UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to The DPSIR framework is used to identify and evaluate the
keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and complex and multidimensional cause-and-effect relationships
trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the between society and the environment. The DPSIR framework
GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and used in GEO assessments is an extension of the pressure-state-
knowledge about the global environment; identified potential response model developed by the OECD and the European
policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The Environment Agency in the mid-1990s. Drivers such as population
assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, dynamics, economic demand and unsustainable consumption
have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by and production patterns are processes that lead to impacts on
turning the best available scientific knowledge into information the environment. These drivers often directly or indirectly result
relevant for decision makers. in environmental pressures including increased emissions of
pollutants and wastes and destructive resource extraction. Such
Previous GEO reports focused on an analysis of environmental pressures cause changes to the environment with concomitant
issues and the identification of responses, using an integrated impacts on both humans and ecosystems. The DPSIR analytical
approach that provided a comprehensive and multidisciplinary framework helps to identify these processes. Finally, it suggests
overview across different themes. This fifth Global Environment responses, which can take many forms at many scales from
Outlook (GEO-5) builds on previous reports, continuing to provide community action to international treaties, not only to the
analyses of the state, trends and outlook for, and responses to, underlying drivers, but also to the environmental pressures and
environmental change. But it also adds new dimensions through their impacts on ecosystems and human health.
its assessment of progress towards meeting internationally
agreed goals and identifying gaps in their achievement Chapters 2–6 evaluate whether a selection of internationally
(Chapters 2–6), on analysing promising response options that agreed environmental goals are being met for each of the
have emerged in the regions (Chapters 9–15), and presenting themes; Chapter 7 provides a synthesis of the thematic
potential responses for the international community (Chapters information from an Earth System perspective. Part 1 concludes
16–17). Furthermore, for the first time, GEO-5 suggests that there with a review of the need to strengthen the collection, analysis
should be a fundamental shift in the way environmental issues and interpretation of data relevant to tracking the state and
are analysed, with consideration given to the drivers of global trends of the environment as a fundamental requirement for
change, rather than merely to the pressures on the environment. further research, for monitoring and evaluation, for scientific
assessments, and for effective policy making (Chapter 8).
Details of the process followed by the UNEP Secretariat in
developing GEO-5, including the assemblage of more than Part 2 – Policy options from the regions
600 scientists guided by governmental, scientific and policy Part 2 of GEO-5, Chapters 9–14, presents an appraisal of policy
advisory bodies, is presented in the GEO-5 Process section. options from the regions that show potential for helping to speed
up the accomplishment of internationally agreed goals. This was
STRUCTURE requested by UNEP’s Governing Council and provides readers
The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three wishing to implement successful policies with promising avenues
distinct but linked parts. for exploration.
Part 1 – State and trends of the global environment To direct the policy appraisal, multi-stakeholder consultations
To explore today’s rapidly changing socio-economic conditions, were undertaken in each region to identify priority environmental
Chapter 1 examines the drivers of environmental change – the challenges and related internationally agreed goals.
Introduction xix

20. Following a screening exercise, policies or policy clusters that either possible to apply a consistent appraisal methodology due to
demonstrated a record of success with respect to their associated the multi-faceted and non-quantifiable elements of some of
goals or featured innovative characteristics combined with the internationally agreed goals and the multi-dimensional and
promising initial results were retained and analysed in further cross-cutting nature of the co-benefits and trade-offs of the
detail. The policy appraisal was based on literature review, policies. Consistency of approach was also hampered by a lack
documented case studies and expert opinion. It was not always of underlying data and indicators.
Figure 1 The GEO-5 DPSIR conceptual framework
Global
Regional
Local
HUMAN SOCIETY
Drivers (d) Impacts (i):
Material, human and social capital Change in human well-being
broadly defined as human freedoms of
choice and actions, to achieve, inter alia:
Human development
• Security
• Demographics • Basic material needs
• Economic processes (consumption, • Good health
production, markets and trade) • Good social relations
• Scientific and technological innovation Responses (r)
which may result in human development
• Distribution pattern processes (inter- or poverty, inequity and human
Formal and informal adaptation to,
and intra-generational) vulnerability
and mitigation of, environmental change
• Cultural, social, political and
(including restoration) by altering human
institutional processes (including
activity and development patterns within Demographic, social (institutional)
production and service sectors)
and between the D, P and I boxes through and material factors determining
inter alia: science and technology, policy, human well-being
law and institutions.
Environmental factors determining
human well-being
Pressures (p)
• Ecological services such as provisioning
Human interventions in the
environment services (consumptive use), cultural
• Land use services (non-consumptive use),
• Resource extraction regulating services and supporting
• External inputs (fertilizers, chemicals, ENVIRONMENT services (indirect use)
irrigation) • Non-ecosystem natural resources such
• Emissions (pollutants and waste) as hydrocarbons, minerals and
• Modification and movement of renewable energy
organisms • Stress, inter alia diseases, pests,
State and trends (s)
radiation and hazards
Natural capital:
atmosphere, land, water and
biosphere
Natural processes:
• Solar radiation
• Volcanoes Environmental impacts and change
• Earthquakes • Climate change and depletion of the
stratospheric ozone layer
• Biodiversity change
• Pollution, degradation and/or
depletion of air, water, minerals
and land (including desertification)
Source: 2012 United Nations Environment Programme DEWA/ GRID-Geneva
xx Introduction

21. The appraisal explored the benefits of the policies and the enabling integrated sustainable world scenario is included in the analysis
conditions that facilitated their adoption or success. Other to examine the extent and complexity of policy changes needed to
characteristics that were analysed include the monitoring and achieve the vision for 2050 (Chapter 16).
tracking of environmental, economic or social outcomes; cross-
cutting effects on other priority themes and internationally agreed Chapters 16 and 17 review the state of knowledge of how public
goals; and the potential for their application in new contexts. institutions, the private sector and civil society could generate
effective and efficient responses to environmental change. While
Each region identified policy responses that were effective and many responses at national and regional levels have successfully
potentially suitable for replication and/or adoption in other put societies on trajectories that are beginning to address some of
countries. Some highly promising approaches featured in the these challenges, the analysis confirms that global environmental
regional chapters are worthy of closer analysis and possible change cannot be addressed successfully by any single approach.
testing by governments.
GEO-5 concludes by identifying action to undertake at the global
The regional summary at the end of Part 2 (Chapter 15) presents level, combined with relevant national applications where
an overview of the priority environmental challenges selected appropriate, to enable the adoption of truly transformative
by the regions; a discussion on commonalities, challenges, and policies – as well as the legal, institutional and policy frameworks
opportunities; and a summary of the policy options. required to make them successful. GEO-5 will provide the reader
not only with an understanding of the complexity of the threats
Part 3 – Opportunities for a global response humanity faces, but possible policy solutions and transformative
The final part of GEO-5 begins with an analysis of the type of actions pathways to a sustainable future.
required to reach a sustainable world. It first reviews existing
environmental treaties and internationally agreed goals to construct The GEO-5 process contributes to UNEP’s Mission of providing
a possible vision for 2050 with specific goals and targets. Next, leadership and encouraging partnership in caring for the
existing scenario studies are reviewed in the context of two possible environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and
categories: conventional world scenarios that depict possible peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising
development if present trends continue and, second, global that of future generations. To facilitate its development the Earth
scenarios that aim to achieve a sustainable world. The analysis that was divided into regions which largely reflect the concerns and
follows identifies a range of measures that could enable the world remits of the six UNEP’s Regional Offices, and allowed them to
to reach the sustainable development targets identified by GEO-5. provide regional support to the working teams preparing GEO-5.
Achieving these targets, however, requires radical departure from A full breakdown of the regions, sub-regions and their respective
current trends. To account for the interactions of policies across nation states can be found on the Environmental Data Explorer
sectors in the dense and interlinked system of global activities, an (formerly the GEO Data Portal), at www.unep.org/geo/data
Figure 2 UNEP regions
Europe
North
America
Asia and
the Pacific
West
Latin America Asia
and the Africa
Caribbean
Source: 2012 United Nations Environment Programme DEWA/GRID-Geneva
Introduction xxi

23. Part 1: State and Trends of the
Environment
Chapter 1:
Drivers
Chapter 2:
Atmosphere
Chapter 3:
Land
Chapter 4:
Water
Chapter 5:
Biodiversity
Chapter 6:
Chemicals and Waste
Chapter 7:
An Earth System Perspective
Chapter 8:
Review of Data Needs

24. “As we watch the sun go down, evening after evening, through the smog across
the poisoned waters of our native Earth, we must ask ourselves seriously
whether we really wish some future universal historian on another planet to say
about us: ‘With all their genius and with all their skill, they ran out of foresight
and air and food and water and ideas’”
U Thant, UN Secretary General, addressing 7th Session of the General Assembly,
New York, 1970

25. C H A P T E R
1
Drivers
© samxmeg/iStock
Coordinating lead authors: Marc A. Levy and Alexandra C. Morel
Lead authors: Susana B. Adamo, Jane Barr, Catherine P. McMullen, Thomas Dietz,
David López-Carr and Eugene A. Rosa
Contributing authors: Alec Crawford, Elizabeth R. Desombre, Matthew Gluschankoff,
Konstadinos Goulias, Jason Jabbour, Yeonjoo Kim, David Laborde Debucquet,
Ana Rosa Moreno, Siwa Msangi, Matthew Paterson, Batimaa Punsalmaa, Ray Tomalty
and Craig Townsend
Principal scientific reviewer: Shobhakar Dhakal
Chapter coordinator: Jason Jabbour
Drivers 3

26. Main Messages
The scale, spread and rate of change of global action. Three-quarters of the agricultural land in the
drivers are without precedent. Burgeoning United States is dedicated to just eight commodity
populations and growing economies are pushing crops: maize, wheat, cotton, soybeans, rice, barley,
environmental systems to destabilizing limits. The oats and sorghum. This dominance is reinforced by
idea that the perturbation of a complex ecological a set of interlocking structural constraints including
system can trigger sudden feedbacks is not new: high levels of producer subsidies, dietary preferences,
significant scientific research has explored thresholds and a large industrialized food processing
and tipping points that the planetary system may economy. For example, of the top 20 sources of
face if humanity does not control carbon emissions. industrial pollution in the United States, eight are
Understanding feedbacks from the perspective slaughterhouses, but even with well-understood
of drivers reveals that many of them interact in environmental and health problems associated with
unpredictable ways. Generally, the rates of change in this food system, its highly entrenched nature makes
these drivers are not monitored or managed, and so it it extremely difficult to modify.
is not possible to predict or even perceive dangerous
thresholds as they approach. Critically, the bulk of Although reducing the drivers of environmental
research has been on understanding the effects of change directly may appear politically difficult, it
drivers on ecosystems, not on the effects of changed is possible to accomplish some environmental co-
ecosystems on the drivers – the feedback loop. benefits by targeting more expedient objectives,
such as international goals on human well-being.
Patterns of globalization – links between trade, Education is recognized as a basic human right,
finance, technology and communication – have made included in the Universal Declaration of Human
it possible for trends in drivers to generate intense Rights. Achieving universal primary education is
pressures in concentrated parts of the world very Goal 2 of the Millennium Development Goals, and it
quickly. There has been a rapid rise in the production is linked to the improvement of gender equality and
of biomass-based fuels for transport – from maize, women’s empowerment. Together with access to
sugar cane, palm oil and rapeseed. In the early years reproductive health, education is a key determinant
of the 21st century, biodiesel became more widely of fertility levels. Greater investment in education
available, with production growing at around 60 per has been correlated with declining fertility, rising
cent per year, reaching nearly 13 million tonnes of incomes and increasing longevity, and also with an
oil equivalent in 2009. However, recent information educated citizenry able to express concern about
raises concerns about the direct environmental environmental matters.
and social consequences of large-scale biofuel
production. These complex issues include, but are Surveillance and monitoring get results. Even where
not limited to, land clearance and conversion, the policy responses are not immediately possible,
introduction of potentially invasive species, the awareness of the importance of drivers can justify
overuse of water, effects on the global food market, increased efforts at surveillance and monitoring.
and the purchase or leasing of land by foreign Many of the most important drivers identified in
investors to produce food and biofuels, typically in this chapter are currently not subject to systematic
developing and sometimes semi-arid countries. monitoring, their impacts even less so. The evidence,
then, is compelling for the need to enhance the
Drivers typically have high inertia and path understanding and monitoring of drivers and their
dependencies, which can act as barriers to effective links with the environment.
4 Part 1: State and Trends
4 Part 1: State and Trends