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Sensitivity Analysis - 3 Improvements To Your Manual Approach

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Enhanced software method to performing quantitative risk analysis with tangible outputs that can be used to assist decision making e.g. Cost Benefit Analysis + other benefits when using Safran Risk

Sensitivity Analysis - 3 Improvements To Your Manual Approach

  1. 1. Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion 3 Improvements To Your Manual Approaches
  2. 2. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 2 Safran Risk’s Enhanced Method 1. Automated - Faster & Eliminates Human Error 2. Unbiased Data Sets (1) - Retains memory of original random iterations 3. Unbiased Data Sets (2) - Auto-Removes risks in appropriate sequence
  3. 3. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 3 Traditional Monte-Carlo Output Limitations • Cumulative S-curve with all risks included • No feel for which risks ‘drive’ the output (& by how much) • Tornado diagrams imply rank order via correlation coefficient • Not a tangible (or intuitive) unit of time / cost
  4. 4. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 4 Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Single Pass • Select desired confidence level e.g. p80
  5. 5. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 5 Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Single Pass • Select desired confidence level e.g. p80 • Revisits the existing 1,000s of samples • Removes one risk at a time • Measures the delta • Quickly compares “apples with apples” Not one set of random iterations compared against another random set (which would be the case if performing manually)
  6. 6. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 6 Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Multi-Pass 1. Uses the single- pass method to initially establish the rank order of risks 2. Removes the top risk & runs another 1,000 simulations 3. Measures the delta 4. Repeats steps above until all desired risks have been re-calculated (Enhances output accuracy by removing dominant risks that may have masked impact of smaller risks)
  7. 7. Bonus Benefit © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020 7 • Pre-emptively select schedule activities or milestones to enrich your conversation with decision- makers & • Reward those who invested their time & effort to help create your model with valuable insights via automated Sensitivity Analysis!
  8. 8. Want to know more? Please get in touch for a trial license https://www.safran.com/risk-free-trial Or join us at our next online interactive learning session https://www.safran.com/training/safran-risk-learning-session
  • StephenHunt

    Apr. 7, 2020

Enhanced software method to performing quantitative risk analysis with tangible outputs that can be used to assist decision making e.g. Cost Benefit Analysis + other benefits when using Safran Risk

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