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Mayo
2040

Dealing with information overload


John Breslin
www.johnbreslin.com
About me
Lecturer at NUI Galway
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
School of Engineering and Informatics
Researcher at DERI
• World’s largest Semantic Web research institute
• Leader of the Unit for Social Software
Set up a games forum in ’98
(16;58) (dev) “why not do www.boards.ie and just
slowly build a site of general stuff”
Co-founder of boards.ie
Ireland’s largest
discussion forum site
2.25 million visitors/month   150000



Irish people seeking          112500



information, or just            75000



chatting about sports, TV,       37500



politics, finance, whatever              0

                                  2005-11-15
                                           2007-01-11
                                                     2008-03-08
                                                                  2009-05-04

Majority shareholder: Daft                                                     2010-06-30
Founder of New Tech Post

newtechpost.com
Galway-based publisher
of stories focused on
emerging, cutting-edge,
innovative technologies
Partners: Irish Innovation
Center (San Jose)
Investor in StreamGlider
Next generation newsreader for tablets
Partners: Nova Spivack and Bill McDaniel
Predictions from the past
Mark Twain, “From the
London Times of 1904”, 1898
 ...and he now took the fancy that he would like to have the telelectroscope and divert
 his mind with it. He had his wish. The connection was made with the international
 telephone-station, and day by day, and night by night, he called up one corner of
 the globe after another, and looked upon its life, and studied its strange
 sights, and spoke with its people, and realized that by grace of this marvelous
 instrument he was almost as free as the birds of the air, although a prisoner under lock
 and bars.
 He seldom spoke to me, and I never interrupted him when he was absorbed in his
 amusement. I sat in his parlor and read and smoked, and the nights were very quiet
 and reposefully sociable, and I found them pleasant. Now and then I would hear him
 say, "Give me Yedo"; next, "Give me Hong Kong"; next, "Give me Melbourne." And I
 smoked on, and read in comfort, while he wandered about the remote
 underworld, where the sun was shining in the sky, and the people were at their
 daily work. Sometimes the talk that came from those far regions through the
 microphone attachment interested me, and I listened.
Arthur C. Clarke, “BBC
Horizon”, 1964
I am thinking of the incredible breakthrough which has been made possible by
developments in communications, particularly the transistor and - above all - the
communication satellite. These things will make possible a world in which we can be in
instant contact with each other, wherever we may be; where we can contact our
friends everywhere on earth even if we do not know their actual physical
location. It will be possible, in that age, perhaps only 50 years from now, for a man to
conduct his business from Tahiti or Bali just as well as he could from London. In fact, if
it proved worthwhile, almost any executive skill, any administrative skill, even many
physical skills could be made independent of distance.
I am perfectly serious when I suggest that one day we may have brain surgeons in
Edinburgh operating in patients in New Zealand. When that time comes, the whole
world would have shrunk to a point and the traditional role of a city as the
meeting place for man would have ceased to make any sense. In fact, men will
no longer commute, they will communicate. They won’t have to travel distance any
more; they’d only travel for pleasure.
Where are we now?
250 million
New people on
Facebook last year
(800 million in total)
30 billion
Pieces of content
shared on Facebook
every month
100 million
New accounts on
Twitter in 2010 (200
million in total)
25 billion
Tweets sent on
Twitter in 2010 (but
now over 250 million
tweets are sent daily)
And lots of
other social
media sites
Blogs, microblogs,
wikis, social
bookmarking,
curated news, etc.
Floating in a social ocean...
But there are so many islands to visit, and too
much stuff is being created to keep up with it all
Social media impacts news
The web has moved beyond text documents:
bite-size videos, real-time feedback and sharing
Parallel move to mobile web
With a new focus on context, geo-location, and
integrated communications
Social media on your mobile
Who, what, when, where
Augmented reality
See what’s going on around you (and your
phone): landmarks, news, tweets, properties
We’ve come a long way...
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic” - Arthur C. Clarke
The near future
Cutting
edge EC
research
Six “Future and
Emerging Tech” pilots
that will pitch for full
status in mid-2012
1. RoboCom
• Companions to improve citizen’s quality of life
• Soft bodies; perceptual and emotive capability
2. IT Future
of Medicine
Using analytical and
clinical data from a
patient to create an
individualised model
3. Human
Brain Project
Building computer
models to simulate
the actual workings of
the brain
4. Guardian Angels
Zero-power devices to assist with health care,
environment, emotional response, rehabilitation
5. Graphene
Replacing silicon in
circuits to not only
improve performance
but create new apps
6. FuturICT
An observatory for studying the way our living
planet works in a social dimension
And beyond
What the future will look like

 Digital technologies will
 be woven throughout
 our daily lives to a level
 where they are another
 essential service, just
 as electricity or clean
 water are today
IDC, “Digital Universe
Study”, 2010
 A study on the amount of digital information created
 and replicated in the world
 75% of our digital world is a copy (25% is unique)
 2010: 1.2 zettabytes (1.2 trillion gigabytes)
   A stack of DVDs stretching to the moon and back
 2020: 35 zettabytes (35 trillion gigabytes)
   A stack of DVDs reaching halfway to Mars
Researchers are creating systems
to help us to find the info we need
 New search and discovery tools
 Ways to add structure to unstructured content,
 including images, audio and video content
   Requires metadata (data about data), Semantic Web
 New information management tools
   Prioritisation, classification, automatic deletion
 Better methods for trust, privacy, accountability
Finding meaning in masses
of data

Big data analytics
Data mining
Visualisation
Networked knowledge
Storage capacities
 Latest memory storage drives can hold 2-3 terabytes
 Every 15 years, capacity increases roughly by 1000
 Paul Reber (Northwestern University) estimated the storage of a
 human brain to be around 2500 terabytes in a 2010 Scientific
 American piece
   Other estimates vary this up or down by a factor of 1000
   Would require 1000 x 2.5 terabyte drives to store a brain
 Not unreasonable to imagine we could store a brain’s capacity on
 a ‘memory’ drive by 2025
Processing capacities

Estimates for the brain are that it can carry out
anywhere from 1016 flops (floating point operations per
second) to 1019 flops
Current supercomputers operate at 2.5 x 1015 flops
Using Moore’s Law, we may have supercomputers
capable of human brain simulation by 2025 (1019 flops)
  By 2040, this grows to 5 x 1022 flops (= 5000 people)
The brain is more than just storage
and processing: consciousness
 Interesting article on
 this topic in today’s
 Guardian newspaper
   http://bit.ly/
   brainappleyard
 Review of “The Brain is
 Wider than the Sky” by
 Bryan Appleyard
Ray Kurzweil, “By 2040 you will be able
to upload your brain...”, The
Independent, 2009
 In 2040, by his
 estimation, we will be
 able to upload the
 human brain to a
 computer, capturing “a
 person's entire
 personality, memory,
 skills and history”!
 (And upload to brains?)
Voice-controlled holo access
Today’s web will feel like a messy second-hand bookshop when
compared to the orderly library of our personalised digital universe
Interested in more?
 Georgia Tech FutureMedia Outlook
    http://www.futuremediaga.com/
 New Media Consortium Horizon
 Report
    http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2011-
    Horizon-Report.pdf
 New Tech Post
    http://newtechpost.com/
 Slides from this talk
    http://www.slideshare.net/
    Cloud

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Dealing with Information Overload

  • 1. Mayo 2040 Dealing with information overload John Breslin www.johnbreslin.com
  • 3. Lecturer at NUI Galway Electrical and Electronic Engineering School of Engineering and Informatics
  • 4. Researcher at DERI • World’s largest Semantic Web research institute • Leader of the Unit for Social Software
  • 5. Set up a games forum in ’98 (16;58) (dev) “why not do www.boards.ie and just slowly build a site of general stuff”
  • 6. Co-founder of boards.ie Ireland’s largest discussion forum site 2.25 million visitors/month 150000 Irish people seeking 112500 information, or just 75000 chatting about sports, TV, 37500 politics, finance, whatever 0 2005-11-15 2007-01-11 2008-03-08 2009-05-04 Majority shareholder: Daft 2010-06-30
  • 7. Founder of New Tech Post newtechpost.com Galway-based publisher of stories focused on emerging, cutting-edge, innovative technologies Partners: Irish Innovation Center (San Jose)
  • 8. Investor in StreamGlider Next generation newsreader for tablets Partners: Nova Spivack and Bill McDaniel
  • 10. Mark Twain, “From the London Times of 1904”, 1898 ...and he now took the fancy that he would like to have the telelectroscope and divert his mind with it. He had his wish. The connection was made with the international telephone-station, and day by day, and night by night, he called up one corner of the globe after another, and looked upon its life, and studied its strange sights, and spoke with its people, and realized that by grace of this marvelous instrument he was almost as free as the birds of the air, although a prisoner under lock and bars. He seldom spoke to me, and I never interrupted him when he was absorbed in his amusement. I sat in his parlor and read and smoked, and the nights were very quiet and reposefully sociable, and I found them pleasant. Now and then I would hear him say, "Give me Yedo"; next, "Give me Hong Kong"; next, "Give me Melbourne." And I smoked on, and read in comfort, while he wandered about the remote underworld, where the sun was shining in the sky, and the people were at their daily work. Sometimes the talk that came from those far regions through the microphone attachment interested me, and I listened.
  • 11. Arthur C. Clarke, “BBC Horizon”, 1964 I am thinking of the incredible breakthrough which has been made possible by developments in communications, particularly the transistor and - above all - the communication satellite. These things will make possible a world in which we can be in instant contact with each other, wherever we may be; where we can contact our friends everywhere on earth even if we do not know their actual physical location. It will be possible, in that age, perhaps only 50 years from now, for a man to conduct his business from Tahiti or Bali just as well as he could from London. In fact, if it proved worthwhile, almost any executive skill, any administrative skill, even many physical skills could be made independent of distance. I am perfectly serious when I suggest that one day we may have brain surgeons in Edinburgh operating in patients in New Zealand. When that time comes, the whole world would have shrunk to a point and the traditional role of a city as the meeting place for man would have ceased to make any sense. In fact, men will no longer commute, they will communicate. They won’t have to travel distance any more; they’d only travel for pleasure.
  • 12. Where are we now?
  • 13. 250 million New people on Facebook last year (800 million in total)
  • 14. 30 billion Pieces of content shared on Facebook every month
  • 15. 100 million New accounts on Twitter in 2010 (200 million in total)
  • 16. 25 billion Tweets sent on Twitter in 2010 (but now over 250 million tweets are sent daily)
  • 17. And lots of other social media sites Blogs, microblogs, wikis, social bookmarking, curated news, etc.
  • 18. Floating in a social ocean... But there are so many islands to visit, and too much stuff is being created to keep up with it all
  • 19. Social media impacts news The web has moved beyond text documents: bite-size videos, real-time feedback and sharing
  • 20. Parallel move to mobile web With a new focus on context, geo-location, and integrated communications
  • 21. Social media on your mobile Who, what, when, where
  • 22. Augmented reality See what’s going on around you (and your phone): landmarks, news, tweets, properties
  • 23. We’ve come a long way... “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” - Arthur C. Clarke
  • 25. Cutting edge EC research Six “Future and Emerging Tech” pilots that will pitch for full status in mid-2012
  • 26. 1. RoboCom • Companions to improve citizen’s quality of life • Soft bodies; perceptual and emotive capability
  • 27. 2. IT Future of Medicine Using analytical and clinical data from a patient to create an individualised model
  • 28. 3. Human Brain Project Building computer models to simulate the actual workings of the brain
  • 29. 4. Guardian Angels Zero-power devices to assist with health care, environment, emotional response, rehabilitation
  • 30. 5. Graphene Replacing silicon in circuits to not only improve performance but create new apps
  • 31. 6. FuturICT An observatory for studying the way our living planet works in a social dimension
  • 33. What the future will look like Digital technologies will be woven throughout our daily lives to a level where they are another essential service, just as electricity or clean water are today
  • 34. IDC, “Digital Universe Study”, 2010 A study on the amount of digital information created and replicated in the world 75% of our digital world is a copy (25% is unique) 2010: 1.2 zettabytes (1.2 trillion gigabytes) A stack of DVDs stretching to the moon and back 2020: 35 zettabytes (35 trillion gigabytes) A stack of DVDs reaching halfway to Mars
  • 35. Researchers are creating systems to help us to find the info we need New search and discovery tools Ways to add structure to unstructured content, including images, audio and video content Requires metadata (data about data), Semantic Web New information management tools Prioritisation, classification, automatic deletion Better methods for trust, privacy, accountability
  • 36. Finding meaning in masses of data Big data analytics Data mining Visualisation Networked knowledge
  • 37. Storage capacities Latest memory storage drives can hold 2-3 terabytes Every 15 years, capacity increases roughly by 1000 Paul Reber (Northwestern University) estimated the storage of a human brain to be around 2500 terabytes in a 2010 Scientific American piece Other estimates vary this up or down by a factor of 1000 Would require 1000 x 2.5 terabyte drives to store a brain Not unreasonable to imagine we could store a brain’s capacity on a ‘memory’ drive by 2025
  • 38. Processing capacities Estimates for the brain are that it can carry out anywhere from 1016 flops (floating point operations per second) to 1019 flops Current supercomputers operate at 2.5 x 1015 flops Using Moore’s Law, we may have supercomputers capable of human brain simulation by 2025 (1019 flops) By 2040, this grows to 5 x 1022 flops (= 5000 people)
  • 39. The brain is more than just storage and processing: consciousness Interesting article on this topic in today’s Guardian newspaper http://bit.ly/ brainappleyard Review of “The Brain is Wider than the Sky” by Bryan Appleyard
  • 40. Ray Kurzweil, “By 2040 you will be able to upload your brain...”, The Independent, 2009 In 2040, by his estimation, we will be able to upload the human brain to a computer, capturing “a person's entire personality, memory, skills and history”! (And upload to brains?)
  • 41. Voice-controlled holo access Today’s web will feel like a messy second-hand bookshop when compared to the orderly library of our personalised digital universe
  • 42. Interested in more? Georgia Tech FutureMedia Outlook http://www.futuremediaga.com/ New Media Consortium Horizon Report http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2011- Horizon-Report.pdf New Tech Post http://newtechpost.com/ Slides from this talk http://www.slideshare.net/ Cloud