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The Essential Director Update_Steven Shepherd

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The Essential Director Update_Steven Shepherd

  1. 1. Economic update Australian Institute of Company Directors The Essential Director Update: 13 Steven Shepherd Senior Economic Advisor Grant Thornton Australia © 2013 Grant Thornton Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Global economic trends Annual GDP growth rates (December quarter on December quarter) 12 10 8 6 Only 4 OECD economies never entered a GFC-induced recession including Australia (also China and India). 2010 2011 2012 4 2013 (f) 2 0 Australia Canada Germany -2 New Zealand © 2013 Grant Thornton Australia Ltd. All rights reserved. UK USA China India Euro area G7 Total OECD
  3. 3. Confidence trends across the Australian economy Corporate sector (ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey: June 2013 - NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2013) • Business confidence weakened across the economy (June 2013) • NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2013 Survey rose to highest in nearly three and a half years SME sector (Sensis Business Index: survey of 1,800 SME's across Australia in September 2013) • SME business confidence fell further during September • Lack of work is the biggest barrier to taking on new employees Consumers (Westpac/Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment: survey of 1,200 consumers in October 2013) • Consumer sentiment fell back somewhat in October, after a 4.6% jump in September • The survey was conducted around one month after Federal Election – still 9.2% above 12 months ago © 2013 Grant Thornton Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. US unemployment rate and quantitative easing 12.0 QE1: December 2008 - June 2010 QE2: November 2010 - June 2011 November 2010: FED - $600B program through to 2Q 2011 10.0 QE3: From September 2012 September 2012: FED - $85B a month 19 June 2013 - QE U/R target 7% - INF: 2% - GDP: 2.3%2.6% % November 2008: FED announces a program of $800B 6.0 4.0 Unemployment rate © 2013 Grant Thornton Australia Ltd. All rights reserved. 2… 2… 2… 2… 0.0 2… 2.0 2… 8.0
  5. 5. Key economic projections • The Australian dollar is 90 cents against the US$ (±5%) – expected to ease over the medium term • RBA Cash Rate – 2.5% – it is believed this will be cut by 25 basis points in next three months and will rise again in 2014 • Australian economy – currently at 2.6% growth and projected growth in 2014/15 is 3% • USA Economy – QE3 = >10% of US Money Supply (M2 - growth accelerating) – US GDP will rise from 2.5% during 2014 – US federal funds discount rate will rise from (effective) 0.08% in 2014 • Chinese Economy – GDP growth to >7.5% in 2013 (China Central Bank) – industrial activity >10% which shows robust growth © 2013 Grant Thornton Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.

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