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Ontario Wine - Insight Conference, March 1 2016

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Wonderfully received presentation in Ontario on the outlook for the wine sector

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Ontario Wine - Insight Conference, March 1 2016

  1. 1. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario, March 1, 2016 A presentation for the Ontario Insight Conference March 1, 2016 Wine Business Institute Wine Sector Outlook
  2. 2. Damien Wilson The challenges on the horizon that the wine sector faces @WineBusProf
  3. 3. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Theme 1: Baby Boomers and Wine…
  4. 4. American Route To Market Hourglass… 1995 2016 ~1,800 Wineries ~3,000 Distributors 9,461 Wineries* ~700 Distributors
  5. 5. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Theme 2: From Introduction to Enthusiasm
  6. 6. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THOSE WINE- LOVING BABY BOOMERS… Theme 1: Baby Boomers and Wine
  7. 7. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference The difference in branded, premium wine From Silicon Valley Bank 2015 Boomers number more than 3x Millenials in highest price categories
  8. 8. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference The Outlook in Wine Consumption SVB STATE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY 2016
  9. 9. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference What we know about wine consumers AN ILLUSTRATION OF HOW CONSUMERS COME INTO THE CATEGORY
  10. 10. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference From the OIV WINE CONSUMPTION OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS IN BILLION LITRES Boomers coming of age window Xers coming of age window
  11. 11. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Millennials’ Coming of Age Window From Euromonitor 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Market Size at Retail Selling Prices in Billion US$, 2014 value World +15% Western Europe -15% N.America & Asia +50%
  12. 12. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference The Unknown… KNOWING THAT WINE PREFERENCE CORRELATES WITH LIMINALITY… Millennials coming of age window
  13. 13. IN A MARKET RELYING ON WINES OF A LOCATION… Evidence Submission #2
  14. 14. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference In France: decline. No other way to explain it From France AgriMer ~45Million ~31Million
  15. 15. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference But an even bigger problem is pending… From France AgriMer
  16. 16. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference In case you missed it… • Awareness of French wine>Bordeaux>Every AOC • Regions with salience attract a price premium - From Combris (1997) to Schamel (2006), to Oczkowski (2010) and numerous others • Tellingly, there’s a premium from generic to specific but loss of awareness brings pricing discounts through loss of potential sales (Gillespie 2005) • Specifically, AOCs in France have doubled since the 1970s • So, as the prestige of French wine has increased, no mechanism existed to bring new drinkers to category
  17. 17. HOW ABOUT ONTARIO? Evidence Submission 3
  18. 18. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Beginners choose yes/no wine… Novices on the left, the enthusiast on the right….
  19. 19. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario, March 1, 2016 Use evidence more than emotion • Alex my Nemesis 1. Wine Making gets the attention. Deal with it. 2. Make sure they know your value  • VQA Riesling outsells PG more than 2 to 1 • But consumers otherwise don’t gravitate to Riesling • Don’t assume your customers understand. Find out • Measure your brand’s character Just because you want it to be that way…. Own Image
  20. 20. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Brand Character Measuring Character: How you behave when no-one is watching BRAND CHARACTER: How consumer’s behave when you’re not watching
  21. 21. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario, March 1, 2016 Research has found… • Sales rely on two things: 1. That consumers are aware of your wine, and 2. That your wine is available where they like to purchase • Millenials are growing, and they like wine • But they are influenced differently to previous generations • Know how they perceive you • The journey from Novice to Expert provides the answer to the riddle behind sustained growth in the wine sector How the boffins are trying to make your job easier Image found at : http://goo.gl/V92k5N
  22. 22. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario, March 1, 2016 For my details, photograph the QR code • Getting growth back will rely on understanding transition from wines of style, then variety, then….? • Enthusiasts love the minutae of wine trivia, but non-wine enthusiasts just want a wine that’s not bad! • With tomorrow’s market witnessing the end of boomer dominance, wine needs to embrace the transition process from novice to enthusiast, and encourage transit through that process IMAGE TAKEN FROM: HTTPS://GOO.GL/CTVLF4
  23. 23. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario, March 1, 2016 Growing the Ontario wine market… • Trading-up (only) is a false economy • Refresh the market with new consumers. Constantly • We suspect that every time a wine consumer is irritated by a wine snob, a kitten dies. • Please think of the kittens when encouraging more consumers to drink wine from Ontario IMAGE TAKEN FROM: HTTPS://GOO.GL/NM942G
  24. 24. Damien Wilson/Insight Ontario Conference Thank you! DAMIEN WILSON - @WineBusProf
  • rekaharos

    Mar. 8, 2016

Wonderfully received presentation in Ontario on the outlook for the wine sector

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