Dan Neumann presented on cognitive biases and strategies to overcome them. He discussed several biases like anchoring, optimism bias, and availability bias. He explained how these biases can negatively impact decision making. Neumann provided mitigation strategies for each bias like considering alternative explanations, researching thoroughly, and getting outside opinions. The presentation emphasized being aware of cognitive biases as the first step towards debiasing thinking and decision making processes.

1. P re s e n t e d b y
Improve Your Team
Explore Cognitive Bias
Dan Neumann
AgileDC 2016

2. Your
Greatest
Tool
https://www.flickr.com/photos/learningissocial/

3. Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more
information, feel free to contact me.
• agilethought.com
• dan.neumann@agilethought.com
• linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann
• @DanRNeumann
• slideshare.net/DanRNeumann
• 574-514-3285
• neumanagementllc.com/blog/

4. Imagine…

5. Anchoring
•Over-Weight the First
Information
•Make Decisions while
Anchored
•Especially a problem
under pressure
https://www.flickr.com/photos/chris_cardew/
•Planning Poker
•Silent Writing
•Start with “Why”
•Sleep on it
More Reasearch on Anchoring:
http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~gbc/fragile.pdf

6. Two Categories
6
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias

7. Imagine…

8. Optimism Bias
Generally believe ourselves to be less prone to
certain events.
8

9. Optimism Bias and
Selective Updating
Representative of Group 1:
Learns the actual chance is 50%
9
“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality”
Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
Representative of Group 2:
Learns the actual chance is 10%
Believes chance of cancer is 30%
New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%

10. 10
“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality”
Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
It’s
Biological

11. Combat: Make The Processing
More Complex
“Beyond Budgeting”
•Estimate
•Budget
•Expected outcome
11
For more, look up videos by Bjarte Bogsnes

12. Debiasing: Multiple Explanation
1. “Consider the Opposite”
2. Consider any Alternative
3. Alternative Plausibility
12
http://bit.ly/MultipleExplanation

13. Related to Planning Fallacy
Planning Fallacy: We underestimate future tasks.
Address Planning Fallacy with Reference Class
Forecasting
http://bit.ly/IntuitivePrediction
“Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures”
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky

14. Availability Bias
•We judge how important (or how likely)
something is by how easy it is to think of an
example
•In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally
charged examples stick.
14

15. Combating Availability Bias
•Research
•Beware the most recent/memorable
•Personas
•Experiments
15

16. Two Categories
16
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias
Anchoring
Optimism
Availability

17. Illusory Superiority
The “Above Average” Bias
17
Image: http://bit.ly/20qozUI
For More on Driver Perception: http://bit.ly/GoodDrivers

18. Attribution Bias
18
My Your
Success
Failure
*Not true of all cultures
Innate Abilities Circumstances
Bad Luck Incompetence

19. Dunning-Kruger Effect
19
Unskilled Highly Skilled
Self-
Assessment
Side-Effect
Overestimated Underestimated
Overconfidence
Frustration
with Others

20. Moderating Ego Bias
Create Safety
“Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly
believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what
they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources
available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm Kerth
Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review

21. Moderating Ego Bias
•Model Getting Feedback
•Evaluate the work, not the individual
•Bring Data
•Broaden your perspective

22. In-Group/Out-Group Bias
• Positive characters
ascribed to their own
group
• Negative characteristics
ascribed to other groups
• Especially when
competing for resources!
22
Mitigation Strategies:
• Get a broader definition of
“my group”
• Address the resource
scarcity

23. Choice-Supportive Bias
•Highlight positive
attributes of our
selection
•Downplay positive
attributes of
alternatives
23
Mitigation Strategies:
•Regular Reviews
•Engage with
outsiders

24. Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside
Bias”)
•Seek information that
supports our beliefs or
hypotheses
•Co-opt Ambiguity
24
Mitigation Strategies:
•Additional Opinions
•Seek to disprove
•“Yes, and…”

25. Social Desirability Bias
•Over-report “good” behavior
•Underreport “bad”
25

26. Hawthorne Effect
People tend to behave
differently when they
are being observed.
26
Use it for Advantage:
•Video during meetings
•Sprint Reviews

28. https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrsdkrebs/

29. Agony by wallsdontlie
Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk

30. What about the bias against
creativity?
• Beware Uncertainty!
• Promotes negative attitudes toward creativity
• Makes creativity hard to recognize
• 95% made explicit statements about supporting Creativity
• Experiment showed high correlation to words like “Vomit” “Poison”
and “Agony”
30
Mueller, Jennifer S.; Melwani, Shimul; and Goncalo, Jack A., "The Bias Against Creativity: Why People Desire But Reject
Creative
Ideas" (2011). Articles & Chapters. Paper 450.
http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/articles/450

31. 31
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RsbmjNLQkc

32. We discussed:
Anchoring
Optimism Bias
Availability Bias
Illusory Superiority
Attribution Bias
Dunning-Kruger Effect
In-Group/Out-Group
Choice-Supportive
Confirmation
Social Desirability
Hawthorne Effect
Bias Against Creativity
32

33. Summary of Strategies
• Show your cards all at once:
• Planning Poker
• Silent Writing
• Start with “Why”
• Sleep on it
• Make the issue more complex
(e.g., Beyond Budgeting)
• Multiple Explanation
• Reference Class Forecasting
• Research
• Experiments
• Personas
• Create Safety
• Model Getting Feedback
• Bring Data
• Evaluate the work, not the
individual
• Broaden your perspective
• Broaden the definition of “My
Group"
• Address the sense of resource
scarcity
• Review your choices.
• Include outsiders
• Create additional options
• Yes, And
• Take advantage of Hawthorne
Effect
• Reduce Uncertainty to allow for
Creativity

34. Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more
information, feel free to contact me.
• agilethought.com
• dan.neumann@agilethought.com
• linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann
• @DanRNeumann
• slideshare.net/DanRNeumann
• 574-514-3285
• neumanagementllc.com/blog/

35. Blind Spot Bias
Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less biased than
the average American
When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of others, but
fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment
35

36. Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more
information, feel free to contact me.
• agilethought.com
• dan.neumann@agilethought.com
• linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann
• @DanRNeumann
• slideshare.net/DanRNeumann
• 574-514-3285
• neumanagementllc.com/blog/