Ranking/labelling/clustering MIP scoreboard

1. MIP Unit meeting, 17th October 2014
SAFEBOOK 2014 exercise
by Dario Buono, Julien Bollati

2. Outline
• Safebook exercise
• Timetable
• Preliminary results
• State of play of benchmarking

3. Aims
• Safebook results will be used for:
• Internal use: SA footnotes, MIP metadata
references, MIP statistics explained
• Ranking/labelling/clustering MIP scoreboard per
each headline/MS

4. Closed
Task Name Duration Resource Initials Start Finish Milestone
% Work
Complete
Preparation of DM document 10 days DB 15 March 2014 27 March 2014 No 100%
DM endorsement 12 days DB 14 April 2014 29 April 2014 Yes 100%
Internal review of MIP Quality
Safebook template questions
30 days DB,IJ,MIP QT 30 April 2014 10 June 2014 No 100%
Presentation to MIP TF 1 day DB,IJ 23 May 2014 23 May 2014 Yes 100%
Peer review of questions by MIP
Steering Group
16 days MIP SG 11 June 2014 02 July 2014 No 100%
Presentation to MIP SG 1 day DB,IJ 24 June 2014 24 June 2014 No 100%
Setting of IPM version 8 days DB 09 July 2014 18 July 2014 Yes 100%
Reading of available inventories and
quality reports
85 days MIP QT 12 May 2014 September 2014 No 100%
Re-run for the 28 EU * 11 headlines 15 days MIP QT 27 August 2014
16 September
2014
No 90%
Preliminary results to be sent to MIP
SG for benchmarking
5 days MIP QT 17 September 30 September NO 100%
Benchmarking exercise 6 days MIP QT,MIP SG 30 September 2014 08 October 2014 No 100%

5. Ongoing and future steps
Task Name Duration Resource Initials Start Finish
Mileston
e
% Work
Complete
Benchmarking exercise 6 days MIP QT,MIP SG 30 September 2014 08 October 2014 No 90%
Director debriefing 1 day DB, JB, IJ 17 October 2014 17 October 2014 No 50%
Preparation of draft text for SA 5 days MIP QT 13 October 2014 20 October 2014 Yes 0%
Identification of Countries to be
visited
5 days AC 1st week of November No 0%
Footnotes for the SA 3 days MIP QT 03 November 2014 05 November 2014 No 0%
Country visits (joint with EDP?) 15 days ?? 01 December 2014 19 December 2014 No 0%
DMES debriefing 1 day PP 10 December 2014 10 December 2014 No 0%
DM debriefing 1 day PP 15 December 2014 15 December 2014 No 0%

6. Main dimensions
• Based on the lecture of all metadata and other
information the analysis focuses on :
• Footnotes + proposed text
• Quality improvements with respect to the previous
year
• Clustering by MIP headlines
• Focus on medium term (10 years)

7. SAFEBOOK
Current
account
balance -
% of GDP
Net
internatio
nal
investmen
t position
Real
Effective
Exchange
Rate
Share of
world
exports
Nominal
unit labour
cost index
House
Price
Index
deflated
Private
credit flow
Private
debt
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Unemploy
ment rate
Total
financial
sector
liabilities
Thresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%
BE No No No No No No No No No No
BG No No No No No No No No No No
CZ No No No No No No No No No No
DK No No No No No No No No No No
DE No No No No No No No No No No
EE No No No No No No No No No No
IE No No No No No No No No No No
EL No No No No No No No No No No
ES No No No No No No No No No No
FR No No No No Yes No No No yes No
HR Yes Yes No No No No No No No No
IT No No No No No No No No No No
CY No No No No No No No No No No
LV No No No Yes No Yes Yes No No No
LT No No No No No No No No No No
LU No No No No No No No No No Yes
HU No No No No No No No No No No
MT No No No No No No No No No No
NL No No No No No No No No No No
AT No No No No Yes No No No No No
PL No No No No Yes No No No No No
PT No No No No No No No No No No
RO No No No No Yes No No No No No
SI No No No No No No No No No No
SK No No No No No No No No No No
FI No No No No No No No No No No
SE No No No No No No No No No No
UK No No No No No No No No No No
Preliminary results

8. Proposed footnotes
• MIP team has identified so far 11 footnotes for the
Statistical Annex
 4 footnotes for the House Price Index
 footnotes in 3 domains for Latvia
• Dissemination team will liaise with domain managers to
decide which footnotes to retain and which information
should be used for metadata and which data should be
flagged

9. EDP vs Safebook
EDP Risk Assessment Safebook
Focus Risk Fit for purpose
(safeness = 1 - risk)
Score 0-10 0-100%
Indicators Debt + Deficit (aggregated) 11
Perspective Producer perspective User perspective
Sources Missions, expertise of desk
officers, data, inventories and
other metadata, other information
Knowledge, data, metadata,
quality reports and inventories
Respondents Desk officers MIP team
Benchmarking Management Directorate D Domain managers
ECFIN-ECB ?
Briefing to DG of Eurostat Briefing to Director of D
Usage EC internal use only
(work planning)
Eurostat internal use
(work planning)

10. Fit for purposes assessment
• On the basis of the score assigned to the
different questions and their relative impact
factor a Safebook index [0-100%] was calculated
for all indicators and Member States.
Legend
Safe >75%
Risk under control 75%<x<50%
Risk out of control <50%
Legend
Safe >95%
Risk under control 85%<x<95%
Potential risk 70%<x<85%
Risk out of control <70%
Initial clustering Final clustering (consistent with EDP)

11. SAFEBOOK
Current
account
balance -
% of GDP
Net
internatio
nal
investmen
t position
Real
Effective
Exchange
Rate
Share of
world
exports
Nominal
unit labour
cost index
House
Price
Index
deflated
Private
credit flow
Private
debt
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Unemploy
ment rate
Total
financial
sector
liabilities
Thresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%
BE 77% 68% 77% 68% 89% 60% 60% 36% 98% 64%
BG 73% 74% 74% 59% 55% 70% 72% 65% 98% 43%
CZ 81% 76% 83% 71% 66% 81% 81% 68% 98% 71%
DK 77% 77% 73% 96% 92% 76% 76% 70% 98% 79%
DE 79% 73% 89% 71% 77% 81% 81% 68% 97% 68%
EE 85% 79% 86% 77% 68% 63% 63% 77% 94% 59%
IE 82% 73% 75% 76% 92% 67% 67% 57% 98% 65%
EL 79% 76% 76% 37% 39% 58% 58% 65% 96% 48%
ES 84% 81% 87% 76% 71% 88% 88% 44% 96% 71%
FR 77% 72% 77% 71% 67% 59% 59% 71% 91% 64%
HR 61% 61% 65% 58% 86% 59% 59% 31% 94% 16%
IT 77% 73% 79% 90% 91% 63% 63% 50% 96% 66%
CY 76% 77% 82% 72% 66% 56% 56% 68% 96% 48%
LV 83% 81% 85% 68% 67% 51% 51% 65% 98% 71%
LT 76% 74% 85% 74% 73% 77% 77% 60% 96% 73%
LU 80% 75% 79% 68% 84% 38% 38% 56% 98% 48%
HU 79% 76% 78% 68% 61% 81% 81% 70% 98% 71%
MT 76% 77% 80% 76% 87% 64% 64% 77% 98% 67%
NL 82% 75% 80% 92% 87% 67% 67% 77% 98% 73%
AT 86% 81% 87% 67% 46% 83% 83% 52% 97% 66%
PL 67% 68% 74% 62% 50% 54% 54% 76% 98% 71%
PT 82% 79% 86% 66% 92% 74% 74% 54% 96% 71%
RO 81% 74% 83% 62% 36% 71% 71% 48% 94% 62%
SI 80% 79% 79% 71% 90% 53% 53% 84% 98% 66%
SK 71% 67% 77% 76% 72% 56% 56% 68% 98% 66%
FI 79% 78% 76% 91% 91% 76% 76% 83% 97% 78%
SE 79% 72% 83% 89% 87% 51% 51% 77% 97% 64%
UK 75% 70% 70% 82% 92% 60% 60% 76% 96% 66%
SAFEBOOK
Current
account
balance -
% of GDP
Net
internatio
nal
investmen
t position
Real
Effective
Exchange
Rate
Share of
world
exports
Nominal
unit labour
cost index
House
Price
Index
deflated
Private
credit flow
Private
debt
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Unemploy
ment rate
Total
financial
sector
liabilities
Thresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%
BE 86% 68% 77% 68% 89% 60% 60% 72% 98% 64%
BG 73% 74% 74% 59% 55% 70% 72% 73% 98% 43%
CZ 81% 76% 83% 71% 66% 81% 81% 74% 98% 71%
DK 77% 77% 73% 96% 92% 76% 76% 78% 98% 79%
DE 79% 73% 89% 71% 77% 81% 81% 92% 97% 68%
EE 85% 79% 86% 77% 68% 63% 63% 73% 97% 59%
IE 82% 73% 75% 76% 92% 67% 67% 79% 98% 65%
EL 79% 76% 76% 37% 39% 58% 58% 68% 98% 48%
ES 84% 81% 87% 76% 71% 88% 88% 76% 98% 71%
FR 77% 72% 77% 71% 67% 59% 59% 87% 91% 64%
HR 61% 61% 65% 58% 86% 59% 59% 37% 97% 16%
IT 77% 73% 79% 90% 91% 63% 63% 74% 96% 66%
CY 76% 77% 82% 72% 66% 56% 56% 74% 98% 48%
LV 83% 81% 85% 68% 67% 51% 51% 74% 98% 71%
LT 76% 74% 85% 74% 73% 77% 77% 82% 98% 73%
LU 80% 75% 79% 68% 84% 38% 38% 62% 98% 48%
HU 79% 76% 78% 68% 61% 81% 81% 77% 98% 71%
MT 76% 77% 80% 76% 87% 64% 64% 92% 98% 67%
NL 82% 75% 80% 92% 87% 67% 67% 92% 98% 73%
AT 86% 81% 87% 67% 46% 83% 83% 70% 97% 66%
PL 67% 68% 74% 62% 50% 54% 54% 76% 98% 71%
PT 82% 79% 86% 66% 92% 74% 74% 73% 96% 71%
RO 81% 74% 83% 62% 36% 71% 71% 72% 94% 62%
SI 80% 79% 79% 71% 90% 53% 53% 90% 98% 66%
SK 71% 67% 77% 76% 72% 56% 56% 74% 98% 66%
FI 79% 78% 76% 91% 91% 76% 76% 92% 97% 78%
SE 79% 72% 83% 89% 87% 51% 51% 92% 97% 64%
UK 75% 70% 70% 82% 92% 60% 60% 90% 98% 66%
Legend
Safe >75%
Risk under control 75%<x<50%
Risk out of control <50%
Legend
Safe >95%
Risk under control 85%<x<95%
Potential risk 70%<x<85%
Risk out of control <70%
Initial clustering Final clustering
(consistent with EDP)

13. GGD Benchmarking
EDP Risk Assessment
Scores
Scores are aggregated to debt
and deficit.
MIP assesses debt only
Linear
combination
Before
benchmarking
After
benchmarking
SAFEBOOK
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Thresholds 60%
HR 37%
LU 62%
EL 68%
AT 70%
RO 72%
BE 72%
EE 73%
BG 73%
PT 73%
CZ 74%
IT 74%
CY 74%
LV 74%
SK 74%
ES 76%
PL 76%
HU 77%
DK 78%
IE 79%
LT 82%
FR 87%
SI 90%
UK 90%
DE 92%
MT 92%
NL 92%
FI 92%
SE 92%
SAFEBOOK
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Thresholds 60%
HR 31%
BE 36%
ES 44%
RO 48%
IT 50%
AT 52%
PT 54%
LU 56%
IE 57%
LT 60%
BG 65%
EL 65%
LV 65%
DE 68%
CZ 68%
CY 68%
SK 68%
HU 70%
DK 70%
FR 71%
PL 76%
UK 76%
EE 77%
MT 77%
NL 77%
SE 77%
FI 83%
SI 84%

14. SAFEBOOK
Current
account
balance -
% of GDP
Net
internatio
nal
investmen
t position
Real
Effective
Exchange
Rate
Share of
world
exports
Nominal
unit labour
cost index
House
Price
Index
deflated
Private
credit flow
Private
debt
General
governme
nt gross
debt (EDP)
Unemploy
ment rate
Total
financial
sector
liabilities
Thresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%
BE No No No No No No No No No No
BG No No No No No No No No No No
CZ No No No No No No No No No No
DK No No No No No No No No No No
DE No No No No No No No No No No
EE No No No No No No No No No No
IE No No No No No No No No No No
EL No No No No No No No No No No
ES No No No No No No No No No No
FR No No No No Yes No No No yes No
HR Yes Yes No No No No No No No No
IT No No No No No No No No No No
CY No No No No No No No No No No
LV No No No Yes No Yes Yes No No No
LT No No No No No No No No No No
LU No No No No No No No No No Yes
HU No No No No No No No No No No
MT No No No No No No No No No No
NL No No No No No No No No No No
AT No No No No Yes No No No No No
PL No No No No Yes No No No No No
PT No No No No No No No No No No
RO No No No No Yes No No No No No
SI No No No No No No No No No No
SK No No No No No No No No No No
FI No No No No No No No No No No
SE No No No No No No No No No No
UK No No No No No No No No No No

15. Questions?