SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 70
Download to read offline
Market update and current views
Presentation to The Senate Group
Peter Kempen
November 2015
Coronation’s positioning
2
Markets have bifurcated
• JSE: R100 invested in
RESI 3 years ago now worth R82
FINDI 3 years ago now R182
• Global Equities: USD100 invested in
MSCI World 5 years ago is now worth $163
MSCI GEM 5 years ago is now worth $91
The big miners have been carried out
• Rand share price declines between 58.1% (Glencore) and 98.5% (Lonmin) since peak
Rampant USD, especially against EM & commodity currencies
• Our GEM fund lost 20% over the past 12 months on BRL & RUB currency movement alone
Our performance
• SA Multi-asset
Comfortably first quartile 3 years plus, around average shorter periods
• SA Equity
Comfortably above average 2 years plus, behind average shorter periods because roughly 20% in miners
Top 20 < Equity by ±3% p.a. given difference in concentration levels
• Global
Opps Equity FoF above average all periods
Directly managed funds lagging shorter term because of ± 30% of equity in EM
Performance
3
Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
RateofReturn(%)
ASISA SA Equity General
Coronation Top 20 A Coronation Equity R ALSI Top 40
4
Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
RateofReturn(%)
ASISA MA High Equity Sector
Coronation Balanced Plus A Balanced Plus Composite Index
5
Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
RateofReturn(%)
ASISA SA MA Low Equity
Coronation Balanced Defensive A STeFI 3m + 3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - 1 year rolling alpha
6
Short-term alpha is lumpy
A successful track record comes with testing years
Selling inflated rand-hedge stocks
Buying depressed interest
rate sensitive stocks
As at 30 September 2015
Selling overvalued commodity
and construction shares
Selling inflated
domestic stocks &
buying cheap global
JSE listed stocks
Selling overvalued
defensive domestics &
buying depressed
commodity stocks
7
Alpha over meaningful periods
It’s over the long term that we measure results
As at 30 September 2015
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - long term alpha
5 year alpha 10 year alpha
Domestic Equity Funds
Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015.
Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Coronation Equity R
SIM General Equity R
Prudential Equity A
Coronation Top 20 A
Foord Equity R
Prudential Dividend Maximiser A
PSG Equity A
Allan Gray Equity A
STANLIB Equity R
Investec Value R
Investec Equity R
Nedgroup Inv Rainmaker A
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Multi Asset High Equity Funds
Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015.
Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Coronation Balanced Plus A
Foord Balanced R
Rezco Value Trend A
Allan Gray Balanced A
Investec Opportunity R
Prudential Balanced A
PSG Balanced A
STANLIB Balanced B1
SIM Balanced R
Nedgroup Inv Managed R
Investec Managed R
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Global macro economic environment
US the only major economy ready to start hiking interest rates
• Although we do not expect a sharp cycle the improving economy no longer warrants zero interest rates
• The big medium term (historical) reason for EM falling out of favour… remember the taper tantrum?
Chinese stock market volatility must not be seen as a predictor of the economy
• But the economy has slowed and a hard landing remains the greatest global macro worry
• Fears about China is the proximate cause for August’s return of volatility
• Policy has become more stimulatory as the economic slowdown continues
Greece got to the edge of the cliff but not quite over it
• Caused initial spike in volatility and eventual Grexit remains a possibility
• No-one cares for now as the can has been kicked down the road
Expect to hear about Greece again in 2017…
• Deflation still the ECB’s major focus... no interest rate hikes on the horizon here
Commodity prices fall further
• Commodity producer currencies very weak
Unsynchronized growth
11
12
US: Recovery in employment means rates will start
rising
Source: I-net
13
China slowing more
14
China: more evidence of slowdown
15
Tumbling commodities
Source: I-net
16
GEM currencies very weak vs. USD
CNY devaluation in context - Other EM & Commodity
currencies hammered
17
Future of emerging markets
19
EMs are caught in a macro driven storm
• Concerns over Chinese growth combined with Fed
hike expectations and a strong USD
• There has been a collapse in EM since the Chinese
stock market started declining with an acceleration
since the renminbi was devalued by ±3%
• Many commodities and EM currencies are at levels
not seen since the ‘90’s
• Capital outflows from EM are now being compared to
those of the GFC
Surge in EM outflows hits share prices and currencies
…yet life continues to go on for the companies in which we invest, their long
term prospects are attractive and valuations are very low
20
Not a fair illustration of the opportunities available in emerging markets
MSCI GEM Index
21
Large MSCI GEM index holdings mostly are/have:
• Below average businesses – banks, energy, tech hardware
• Significant state ownership / state regulation
• Poor stewards of capital
• Cyclical earnings
An investment in these companies does NOT represent the opportunity set in EM
If you invest in poor businesses, expect poor long term returns
Right now:
• Global macroeconomic environment is uncertain and looks especially poor in EMs
• Expect volatility to continue but in EMs you can find…
• Great businesses
At attractive valuations
With powerful long term structural drivers
That make great long term investments
And can’t be captured in the DM space
Think beyond the index
Russian Food Retail: the long-term opportunity
22
Top 5 grocery retailers in
Russia are 20% of market
(vs. 60-70% in established
markets)
Where else can you get growth like this?
• Exceptional businesses
• Great management teams
• Experienced crises like this before and thrived
• At attractive valuations
Russia Food Retail
368 610
1 014
1 500
1 893
2 194
2 568
3 204
4 002
5 006
6 046
7 200
8 344
9 694
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
12 500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F2015
Magnit Convenience Store Base
23
Brazilian Private Education – why invest?
24
Government target
not very aggressive
33% target
DL centres exclusively
private sector run
Private sector has taken
90% of new campus
students over this period
Powerful incentive to study
further given uptick in
lifetime earning potential
Tertiary education
almost non-existent
outside the wealthy
Loan growth 1.3 – 3.0x nominal GDP for close to 20 years now
• But still under-banked by most metrics
Indian Banks
25
26
Mortgages and retail loans still very small in the mix
Indian Banks
27
Public sector banks losing market share to private sector
Indian Banks
28
Several businesses in many industries rapidly capturing the market
Large investible universe spread across:
• Search
• eCommerce
• Online travel
• Mobile Value Added Services
• Gaming
• Video
• Classified advertising
• Recruitment
• Property
• General portals
China Internet Stocks
29
Online shopping already larger than USA and still growing fast
China Internet Stocks – JD.com / Alibaba
30
The “Google” of China
China Internet Stocks - Baidu
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Baidu - number of advertisers
31
It is normal to second guess allocation to an asset class when it has underperformed so
significantly BUT
A long term specific allocation to GEM is still appropriate
Global equity managers are generally structurally underweight GEM
• Where global managers do invest in GEM it tends to be a narrow universe of the biggest, most liquid
names in the asset class
Industry structural drivers that are common in GEM are simply not present in DM
All asset class returns may be lower going forward
Cannot afford to miss out on long term return opportunities where they are available
Why invest directly in GEM?
32
GEM Fund upside (weighted average) and PE
0.0%
22.5%
45.0%
67.5%
90.0%
112.5%
0.0
4.5
9.0
13.5
18.0
22.5
11-Oct-10
11-Nov-10
14-Dec-10
17-Jan-11
15-Feb-11
22-Mar-11
26-Apr-11
30-May-11
4-Jul-11
8-Aug-11
12-Sept-11
17-Oct-11
21-Nov-11
3-Jan-12
6-Feb-12
12-Mar-12
16-Apr-12
21-May-12
25-Jun-12
30-Jul-12
3-Sept-12
8-Oct-12
13-Nov-12
14-Dec-12
22-Jan-13
25-Feb-13
2-Apr-13
6-May-13
6-Jun-13
8-Jul-13
12-Aug-13
16-Sept-13
17-Oct-13
18-Nov-13
20-Dec-13
3-Feb-14
10-Mar-14
14-Apr-14
19-May-14
23-Jun-14
28-Jul-14
1-Sept-14
6-Oct-14
10-Nov-14
15-Dec-14
26-Jan-15
2-Mar-15
7-Apr-15
11-May-15
17-Jun-15
20-Jul-15
Ave P/E (left)
Ave Upside (right)
33
GEM share of world GDP is up from 35% in 1993 to 50% today
FX reserves in EM were half of DM in 2000, they are now double that of DM
There has been (and will continue to be) improvement in economic situations
• E.g. Brazil Debt/GDP is half what it was in 2002
Foreign direct investment into GEM has increased 10 fold from 2005 to 2014
• This is 30% faster than in DM
While EM companies represented 5% of the Fortune Global 500 from 1980 to 2000, they are now
26%
Set backs currently experienced resulting from rising US rates, shrinking commodity demand and a
slowing global economy are normal and have been witnessed in most economies over time
GEM has survived two massive crises in the recent past: Asian crisis of 1998 and the GFC of 2008
and come out of each stronger
GEM will learn from this crisis and emerge stronger, and increasingly relevant
GEM will remain relevant
Source - http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/31/what-future-for-emerging-markets/
34
SA vs. GEM
• GEM is a very different investment set from SA
• SA has also provided great long term returns despite volatility
DM vs. EM valuations
• Upside to fair value on most stocks in our GEM coverage list far exceeds that in DM
“Hot money” is fleeing EMs
• These investors were never making long term allocations
• “Smart money” should not be influenced by the actions of “quick money”
Market performance vs. economic performance & company performance
• Dislocation between company performance and macroeconomic environment
• Recessions are often good for businesses over the long term
Weaker players exit => reduces excess capacity
Market share increases for the remainder
• Stock markets move out of sync with economic performance
Don’t disinvest when (macro) times are tough
Don’t invest only when times are good
A long term, through the cycle allocation is appropriate
Size of allocation depends on valuations, which are very attractive today
Some final points to consider
SA macro concerns
36
Low commodity prices and sluggish growth in trading partners undermining exports
Reserve Bank intent on normalizing interest rates but in the weak economy a very mild cycle
anticipated
Lower oil has taken some pressure off inflation
Combination of rising interest rates and a sluggish economy not good for already highly
rated domestic equities
Global environment a headwind, but we have added to our woes by scoring own goals:
• Eskom – big blow to confidence and growth
• The visa debacle
• Poor fiscal discipline
• Corruption and wasteful spending at SOE’s
Downward commodity cycle and own goals
37
Eskom
38
The visa debacle
39
Undisciplined government spending
Source: Prescient Securities
(data from WEO database and the NT Budget Review)
40
Sorry saga at the SOE’s
SA equities
42
Our exposure to domestic equities is low across all balanced funds on valuation grounds
Massive divergence continues
• Resources has sold off dramatically
• Bid for SAB at very high multiple
Corporate action in the platinum sector encouraging
Banks relatively attractive
More SA companies looking to expand off-shore
• Mediclinic, Truworths, Foschini, Brait, Woolworths, Steinhoff among the more recent movers
JSE listed global stocks such as Naspers, Richemont, MTN, Steinhoff and British American
Tobacco continues to offer the SA investor much needed geographic diversification and
offers reasonable value
SA Equities
43
ALSI surprisingly resilient
Source: I-net
44
But resources hammered
Source: I-net
Company
30-Jun-08 31-Jul-15 Price
movePrice Price
Anglo American 548.00 159.87 -71%
Exxaro 144.45 74.91 -48%
Impala 309.00 45.51 -85%
SAB 178.05 661.48 272%
Truworths 22.95 85.55 273%
Bidvest 98.38 307.90 213%
AVI 12.95 79.80 516%
Mr Price 15.00 252.20 1581%
Spar 49.50 197.87 300%
Relative performance
Resources versus industrials
Source: I-Net
45
46
Relative performance
Resources vs. FINDI
Source: I-Net
Commodities & the miners
JSE classification shows basic materials as 28% in Top 20 and 23% in Equity
9% / 6% is Mondi which is anything but a typical resource company
19% / 17% in ‘traditional’ resource companies
On a look through basis roughly half of this is SA based mines and the rest is outside of SA
Predominantly exposed to diversified miners and Platinum
Lower risk commodities with less ‘China’ risk
Exposure to the miners
48
Setting the scene
Supercycle and aftermath
Up 900%
-75%
Source: I-Net Bridge
49
50
Chinese consumption of raw materials
Source: www.visualcapitalist.com
51
The current outlook for commodity demand is weak across the board
• Weakness in China, the major engine of demand growth
• Rest of the world struggling too
• Longer term threats of electric vehicles and renewable energy gaining traction
Most commodities are in oversupply (still growing or not closing quickly enough)
• Barriers to exit is likely to keep supply in the market for longer than expected
• Last supercycle projects still being delivered
• Governments often support loss-making industries to protect jobs
Earnings have already collapsed and at spot prices most commodity companies are under
increasing pressure and earnings and cash flows will be low
Despite this, we believe the valuations of the mining companies are attractive enough to
warrant a reasonable position in our funds
• We prefer commodities where supply growth will be more muted in the long-term
Platinum, copper, diamonds
• We prefer companies with high quality, low cost, long life assets
Impala and Northam
Anglo American
Sasol
Resources sector view
52
Earnings are low and heading lower
Price-to-earnings
ratios
Historic Spot Normal
I-net Coronation estimate Coronation estimate
Anglo American 51.1 1427 5.3
Exxaro 6.7 9.2 5.2
Impala 115.4 Neg 3.1
BHP Billiton 15.6 34.9 11.9
Glencore 21.3 137 4.4
Northam -15.4 Neg 3.8
Amplats 22.6 Neg 6.0
Sasol 8.7 11.2 8.2
… but long-term valuation looks compelling
53
Returns and valuations at multi decade lows
From already low levels we have seen further severe weakness
Since June Rand basket down 15%
Significant implications for miners
Collapse in PGM prices
54
Source: I-net
55
45% of industry production unable to cover cash costs
70% of industry production unable to cover cash costs + sustaining capex
Only mines viable at these prices are
• Amplat’s open pit Mogalakwena (needs more capex)
• Zimbabwe – comes with its own specific set of challenges (ownership, taxes) etc.
Logical response: cut loss making production
Seen some of this already:
• Amplats: 400k oz. at Rustenburg and Union
• Lonmin: 100k oz.
Barriers to exit in the industry are high:
• Reducing labour incredibly difficult
• Overheads spread over a smaller production base increasing unit costs
Consequences are severe
56
General commodity sell-off
Concerns about areas of China slowdown specific to
PGMs
• Platinum: jewellery demand
• Palladium: auto sales
Anti-diesel lobby in Europe
Concerns about growth in recycling
Concerns about changes in drivetrain technology:
• Battery electric vehicles
Concerns about changes in vehicle ownership
patterns and replacement cycle:
• UBER
• Ride-sharing
What is causing the rout?
57
SA and Zimbabwe have 55% of global supply of PGMs
Autocats absorb 45% of Platinum and 80% of Palladium... tightening emission controls a
positive
30% of Platinum goes into jewellery
• Predominantly China where increasing wealth levels and rise of middle income consumer are long term
drivers
PGMs less dependent on China than most base metals
PGMs have some attractive fundamental drivers
58
Trading on PE’s of 5-6x normal earnings
Trading at discount to replacement cost:
• Cost to build 1 vertical shaft + concentrator on Western Bushveld: R11 - R13bn
• The majors operate many shaft complexes
• Yet trade at market caps way below the cost to replicate their infrastructure:
Lonmin: R3bn
Northam: R17bn
Implats: R30bn
Compelling valuation
59
Bonds
• Excessively low and even negative bond yields for low risk sovereigns offer no value
• Domestic bonds offer relatively far better value
• Corporate debt preferred to government debt
Equities
• Global (fairly valued) preferred to domestic (expensive)
• Within global equities EM’s certainly cheaper but with clearly higher risk
Property
• On a bottom-up view we find some value in selected counters but in general the very low bond yields
have pushed global property yields too low
• Domestic property has likewise run hard but in a low yield world and relative to very pricey equities
offers reasonable value
Current asset allocation view
Return expectations
61
Expected asset class returns
as at 31 July 2015
Last 10 years
(ZAR)
10 year forecast
(ZAR)
Local equity 17.2% 7 – 10%
Global equity 14.1% 10 – 13%
Local property 20.4% 7 - 10%
Local bonds 8.2% 6 – 9%
Global bonds 10.5% 5 - 7%
Cash 7.5% 6 – 8%
Inflation 6.2% 6% +
Asset allocation is the most important decision you make in investments
Above table shows importance of alpha generation in achieving targeted return
Big difference
between rear-view
mirror and
windscreen
23
Alpha much more valuable in lower return environment
Increase in purchasing power over n years at different real return rates
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the
exponential function”
- Albert A. Bartlett
Real return: 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 10%
n = 10 years 0.05 X 0.15 X 0.26 X 0.38 X 0.52 X 1.46 X
n = 30 years 0.15 X 0.52 X 1.01 X 1.65 X 2.48 X 13.95 X
Outlook and conclusion
64
Commodities near the end of the down cycle as evidenced by many loss making producers
GEM currencies (tougher to call) have experienced a big cycle already
• There could be even more pain, but its difficult to argue the pain has just started
Developed world stocks trade around fair value
GEM stock markets have had a deep down cycle, now offering far more upside than downside
SA stock market has held up quite well. Many high quality stocks trading at very high multiples
in a low growth economy. Downside risk not to be ignored
The lower return world we have warned about repeatedly is here
Most upside can be found in bombed out cyclical sectors, but uncertainty around global and
domestic growth limits our appetite for these stocks
Investment outlook
Where are we in the cycle?
Sticking to our knitting…
65
“Investment risk resides most where it is
least perceived, and vice versa. When
everyone believes something is risky, the
unwillingness to buy usually reduces its
price to the point where it is not risky at
all. Broadly negative opinion can make it
the least risky thing, since all optimism
has been driven from the price… When
everyone believes something embodies
no risk, they usually bid it up to the point
where it’s enormously risky. As no risk is
feared, no reward for risk bearing is
demanded or provided. That can make
the thing that is most esteemed the
riskiest”
- Howard Marks, Oaktree
The content of this presentation and any information provided may be of a general nature and may not be based on any analysis of the investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the potential investor/client. As a result, there may be limitations as to the appropriateness of any
information given. It is therefore recommended that the potential investor/client first obtain the appropriate legal, tax, investment or other professional
advice and formulate an appropriate investment strategy that would suit the risk profile of the potential investor/client prior to acting upon such information
and to consider whether any recommendation is appropriate considering the potential investor’s/client’s own objectives and particular needs. Coronation
Asset Management (Pty) Ltd is not acting, does not purport to act and is not authorised to act in any way as an advisor. Any opinions, statements or
information contained herein may change and are expressed in good faith. Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd does not undertake to advise any
person if such opinions, statements or information should change or become inaccurate. The value of the investments may go down as well as up and
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Coronation Fund Managers Ltd is a full member of the Association for Savings and
Investment SA (ASISA). Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider (FSP 548).
Disclaimer
67
FAIS requirements
CORONATION ASSET MANAGEMENT (PTY) LTD
Registration No. 1993/002807/07
Herein after referred to as ‘Coronation’
INFORMATION IN TERMS OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISORY AND INTERMEDIARY SERVICES ACT
Coronation is a licensed Category II and Category IIA Financial Services Provider in terms of section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002 (licence number 548).
Coronation is not authorised to provide advice in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002. Coronation has been authorised to render discretionary intermediary
services.
Coronation is authorised to provide financial services for the following financial products:
Long-Term Insurance : Category C; Pension Funds Benefits (excluding retail pension benefits); Securities and Instruments : Shares; Securities and Instruments : Money market instruments;
Securities and Instruments : Debentures and securitised debt; Securities and Instruments : Warrants, certificates and other instruments; Securities and Instruments : Bonds; Securities and
Instruments : Derivative instruments; Participatory interests in Collective Investment Schemes; Short Term Deposits; Long Term Deposits
Coronation is a licensed Hedge Fund Financial Services Provider.
The following exemptions are applicable to the licence:
Exemption of investment managers and linked investment services providers and their related functionaries from fit and proper requirements (Board Notice 97 of 2003).
Exemption of financial services providers as regards to representatives (Board Notice 95 of 2003).
The following employees have been appointed as Key Individuals and/or Authorised Representatives:
Key individuals
Anton Pillay; Karl Leinberger; Kirshni Totaram; Neville Chester; John Snalam; Louis Stassen; Llewellyn Smith
Authorised representatives
Adrian van Pallander; Hendrik Groenewald; Alistair Lea; Karl Leinberger; Pieter Hundersmarck; Anton de Goede; Kirshni Totaram; Pranay Chagan; Kyle Wales; Quinton Ivan; Charles de Kock;
Sarah-Jane Morley (married Alexander); Dirk Kotze; Sean Morris; Duane Cable; Mark le Roux; Louis Stassen; Neill Young; Siphamandla Shozi; Gavin Joubert; Neville Chester; Stephen Peirce;
Godwill Chahwahwa; Pallavi Ambekar; Suhail Suleman; Peter Leger; Tracy Burton; Nishan Maharaj; Nomathibana Matshoba; Nicholas Hops (supervised); Brian Thomas; Steve Janson; Mauro
Longano (supervised); Harry Moolman (supervised); Alex Dearman (supervised); Gus Robertson
All Key Individuals and Representatives meet the fit and proper requirements as set out in the Board Notices to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002.
Coronation holds professional indemnity and fidelity insurance cover as stipulated in the General Code of Conduct and Board Notices to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37,
2002.
Any information disclosed to any of Coronation’s Authorised Representatives in their professional capacity will be treated as confidential unless written consent is obtained to disclose such
information, or the disclosure of such information is required in the public interest or under a particular law.
The appointed Compliance Officers are:
Jamie Rowland Mark Barratt Stephan Kemp
Tel: 021 680 2809 021 680 2099 021 680 7703
Fax: 021 680 2859 021 680 2199 021 680 7753
Cell: 082 434 4622 072 595 5277 082 351 2401
E-mail: jrowland@coronation.co.za mbarratt@coronation.co.za skemp@coronation.co.za
Coronation’s Conflicts of Interest Management Policy, in terms of General Code of Conduct Regulations issued in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002, is
available on Coronation’s website, www.coronation.com, or on request from the Compliance Officer.
All complaints are taken seriously and Coronation’s aim is to ensure that all complaints are investigated and addressed in a timely and fair manner.
To lodge a complaint, please contact either your Fund Manager or one of the compliance officer’s listed above.
68
Thank you

More Related Content

What's hot

Grindrod de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015
Grindrod  de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015Grindrod  de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015
Grindrod de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...netwealthInvest
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...netwealthInvest
 

What's hot (20)

Anchor presentation
Anchor presentationAnchor presentation
Anchor presentation
 
Grindrod de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015
Grindrod  de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015Grindrod  de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015
Grindrod de-risking retirement payers and growers may 2015
 
BCI Senate Group presentation
BCI Senate Group presentationBCI Senate Group presentation
BCI Senate Group presentation
 
Prudential
PrudentialPrudential
Prudential
 
Aylett Fund Managers
Aylett Fund ManagersAylett Fund Managers
Aylett Fund Managers
 
Senate presentation june 2015
Senate presentation june 2015Senate presentation june 2015
Senate presentation june 2015
 
Old mutual - Senate Group presentation Nov 2015
Old mutual - Senate Group presentation Nov 2015Old mutual - Senate Group presentation Nov 2015
Old mutual - Senate Group presentation Nov 2015
 
PSG Asset management
PSG Asset managementPSG Asset management
PSG Asset management
 
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab finalElement, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
 
Investec, Senate group
Investec, Senate groupInvestec, Senate group
Investec, Senate group
 
Ashburton Investments rmb
Ashburton Investments rmbAshburton Investments rmb
Ashburton Investments rmb
 
Prescient
PrescientPrescient
Prescient
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...
 
Investec Senate Group Presentation
Investec Senate Group Presentation Investec Senate Group Presentation
Investec Senate Group Presentation
 
Fairtree 14 march 2018
Fairtree 14 march 2018Fairtree 14 march 2018
Fairtree 14 march 2018
 
Anchor fixed income
Anchor fixed incomeAnchor fixed income
Anchor fixed income
 
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
 
Itransact investor - 2015
Itransact   investor - 2015Itransact   investor - 2015
Itransact investor - 2015
 
Truffle Asset Management
Truffle Asset ManagementTruffle Asset Management
Truffle Asset Management
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Why you should consider investing o...
 

Viewers also liked (11)

Agile senate group 5 november 2015
Agile senate group 5 november 2015Agile senate group 5 november 2015
Agile senate group 5 november 2015
 
Momentum - Senate Group presentation
Momentum - Senate Group presentationMomentum - Senate Group presentation
Momentum - Senate Group presentation
 
Liberty Nov 2015
Liberty Nov 2015Liberty Nov 2015
Liberty Nov 2015
 
Investec Nov 2015
Investec Nov 2015Investec Nov 2015
Investec Nov 2015
 
Sanlam - Senate Group Nov 2015
Sanlam - Senate Group Nov 2015Sanlam - Senate Group Nov 2015
Sanlam - Senate Group Nov 2015
 
Grindrod Asset Management Simulation Tool
Grindrod Asset Management Simulation ToolGrindrod Asset Management Simulation Tool
Grindrod Asset Management Simulation Tool
 
Momentum Myriad
Momentum Myriad Momentum Myriad
Momentum Myriad
 
Sanlam sickness benefit and income protection presentation
Sanlam sickness benefit and income protection presentationSanlam sickness benefit and income protection presentation
Sanlam sickness benefit and income protection presentation
 
Old mutual Senate Group presentation
Old mutual Senate Group presentationOld mutual Senate Group presentation
Old mutual Senate Group presentation
 
Juris Tax presentation
Juris Tax presentationJuris Tax presentation
Juris Tax presentation
 
Fairtree Senate Group presentation
Fairtree Senate Group presentationFairtree Senate Group presentation
Fairtree Senate Group presentation
 

Similar to Coronation - Senate Group Nov 2015

Introduction to the stock market
Introduction to the stock marketIntroduction to the stock market
Introduction to the stock marketgutic
 
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)University of New South Wales
 
The Equity Observer - November 2015
The Equity Observer - November 2015The Equity Observer - November 2015
The Equity Observer - November 2015Eric J. Weigel
 
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysis
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental AnalysisMutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysis
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysistechkaush
 
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-WignallOECD_NAEC
 
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFAxis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFNiharikakaushik5
 
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africa
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South AfricaPresentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africa
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africabizsouthafrica
 
Market outlook review and strategy
Market outlook review and strategyMarket outlook review and strategy
Market outlook review and strategyVijayGaba2
 
Bentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateBentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateMichael Kennedy
 
Economic Implications: Market Forecasts
Economic Implications: Market ForecastsEconomic Implications: Market Forecasts
Economic Implications: Market ForecastsNICSA
 
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas Lilladher
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas LilladherIndia Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas Lilladher
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas LilladherIndiaNotes.com
 
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013advisorshares
 
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 eng
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 engBsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 eng
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 engLong Tran
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...netwealthInvest
 
Income oppsfund (3)
Income oppsfund (3)Income oppsfund (3)
Income oppsfund (3)MaggieSOG
 
Portfolio management sessions 1&2
Portfolio management sessions 1&2Portfolio management sessions 1&2
Portfolio management sessions 1&2Aakash Kulkarni
 
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsAsset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsKevin Cheng, CFA
 

Similar to Coronation - Senate Group Nov 2015 (20)

April 2020
April 2020April 2020
April 2020
 
Introduction to the stock market
Introduction to the stock marketIntroduction to the stock market
Introduction to the stock market
 
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)
Citibank Global Market Challenge 2020 (Top 3 in UNSW)
 
The Equity Observer - November 2015
The Equity Observer - November 2015The Equity Observer - November 2015
The Equity Observer - November 2015
 
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysis
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental AnalysisMutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysis
Mutual fund industry - An Intercontinental Analysis
 
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-Wignall
 
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 UpdateAdroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
 
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDFAxis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
Axis Business Cycles Fund- NFO PPT.PDF
 
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africa
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South AfricaPresentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africa
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africa
 
Market outlook review and strategy
Market outlook review and strategyMarket outlook review and strategy
Market outlook review and strategy
 
Bentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateBentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit update
 
Economic Implications: Market Forecasts
Economic Implications: Market ForecastsEconomic Implications: Market Forecasts
Economic Implications: Market Forecasts
 
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas Lilladher
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas LilladherIndia Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas Lilladher
India Strategy: All eyes on growth - Prabhudas Lilladher
 
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013
Weekly chartbook 8.23.2013
 
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 eng
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 engBsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 eng
Bsc vietnam outlook 2Q 2016 eng
 
Economic & Investment Update - March 2016
Economic & Investment Update - March 2016Economic & Investment Update - March 2016
Economic & Investment Update - March 2016
 
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Building investment portfolios for ...
 
Income oppsfund (3)
Income oppsfund (3)Income oppsfund (3)
Income oppsfund (3)
 
Portfolio management sessions 1&2
Portfolio management sessions 1&2Portfolio management sessions 1&2
Portfolio management sessions 1&2
 
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsAsset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
 

More from Senate Group Financial Advisors

Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann Gunter
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann GunterAbsa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann Gunter
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann GunterSenate Group Financial Advisors
 

More from Senate Group Financial Advisors (20)

Old Mutual, Senate Group
Old Mutual, Senate Group   Old Mutual, Senate Group
Old Mutual, Senate Group
 
Old mutual, Senate group
Old mutual, Senate group  Old mutual, Senate group
Old mutual, Senate group
 
Momentum, Senate group
Momentum, Senate groupMomentum, Senate group
Momentum, Senate group
 
Investec, Senate Group
Investec, Senate GroupInvestec, Senate Group
Investec, Senate Group
 
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by ABSA stockbrokers and po...
 
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann Gunter
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann GunterAbsa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann Gunter
Absa bank, Senate group conference - presentation by Johann Gunter
 
Ultima
UltimaUltima
Ultima
 
Old Mutual optimising the value of advice
Old Mutual optimising the value of adviceOld Mutual optimising the value of advice
Old Mutual optimising the value of advice
 
Clientele - estate preservation plan Senate Group
Clientele - estate preservation plan Senate GroupClientele - estate preservation plan Senate Group
Clientele - estate preservation plan Senate Group
 
Absa Linked Investments
Absa Linked InvestmentsAbsa Linked Investments
Absa Linked Investments
 
Old Mutual: Greenlight presentation
Old Mutual: Greenlight presentationOld Mutual: Greenlight presentation
Old Mutual: Greenlight presentation
 
Old Mutual Rewards: Registration process updated
Old Mutual Rewards: Registration process updatedOld Mutual Rewards: Registration process updated
Old Mutual Rewards: Registration process updated
 
Old Mutual: Greenlight unmatched heart stroke
Old Mutual: Greenlight unmatched heart strokeOld Mutual: Greenlight unmatched heart stroke
Old Mutual: Greenlight unmatched heart stroke
 
Old Mutual: Greenlight
Old Mutual: GreenlightOld Mutual: Greenlight
Old Mutual: Greenlight
 
Old Mutual: Earnings multiples
Old Mutual: Earnings multiplesOld Mutual: Earnings multiples
Old Mutual: Earnings multiples
 
Why Incompass.
Why Incompass.Why Incompass.
Why Incompass.
 
Incompass: Formal emigration guide
Incompass: Formal emigration guideIncompass: Formal emigration guide
Incompass: Formal emigration guide
 
Methodical Investment Management
Methodical Investment ManagementMethodical Investment Management
Methodical Investment Management
 
Senate conference Agenda March 18
Senate conference Agenda March 18Senate conference Agenda March 18
Senate conference Agenda March 18
 
Denker Capital
Denker CapitalDenker Capital
Denker Capital
 

Recently uploaded

Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfProbe Gold
 
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024Probe Gold
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024CollectiveMining1
 
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR Presentation
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR PresentationMandalay Resources 2024 April IR Presentation
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR PresentationMandalayResources
 
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...USDAReapgrants.com
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024CollectiveMining1
 
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd
 
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdf
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdfslideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdf
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdfsansanir
 
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdf
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdfthe 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdf
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdfFrancenel
 
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdf
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdfQ1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdf
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdfProbe Gold
 
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfProbe Gold
 

Recently uploaded (12)

Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
 
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024
Q1 Probe Gold Quarterly Update- April 2024
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - April 2024
 
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR Presentation
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR PresentationMandalay Resources 2024 April IR Presentation
Mandalay Resources 2024 April IR Presentation
 
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...
Leveraging USDA Rural Development Grants for Community Growth and Sustainabil...
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation | April 2024
 
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, April 10, 2024
 
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdf
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdfslideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdf
slideshare_2404_presentation materials_en.pdf
 
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdf
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdfthe 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdf
the 25 most beautiful words for a loving and lasting relationship.pdf
 
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdf
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdfQ1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdf
Q1 Quarterly Update - April 16, 2024.pdf
 
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe April 2024.pdf
 
Korea District Heating Corporation 071320 Algorithm Investment Report
Korea District Heating Corporation 071320 Algorithm Investment ReportKorea District Heating Corporation 071320 Algorithm Investment Report
Korea District Heating Corporation 071320 Algorithm Investment Report
 

Coronation - Senate Group Nov 2015

  • 1. Market update and current views Presentation to The Senate Group Peter Kempen November 2015
  • 3. 2 Markets have bifurcated • JSE: R100 invested in RESI 3 years ago now worth R82 FINDI 3 years ago now R182 • Global Equities: USD100 invested in MSCI World 5 years ago is now worth $163 MSCI GEM 5 years ago is now worth $91 The big miners have been carried out • Rand share price declines between 58.1% (Glencore) and 98.5% (Lonmin) since peak Rampant USD, especially against EM & commodity currencies • Our GEM fund lost 20% over the past 12 months on BRL & RUB currency movement alone Our performance • SA Multi-asset Comfortably first quartile 3 years plus, around average shorter periods • SA Equity Comfortably above average 2 years plus, behind average shorter periods because roughly 20% in miners Top 20 < Equity by ±3% p.a. given difference in concentration levels • Global Opps Equity FoF above average all periods Directly managed funds lagging shorter term because of ± 30% of equity in EM Performance
  • 4. 3 Performance Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year RateofReturn(%) ASISA SA Equity General Coronation Top 20 A Coronation Equity R ALSI Top 40
  • 5. 4 Performance Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year RateofReturn(%) ASISA MA High Equity Sector Coronation Balanced Plus A Balanced Plus Composite Index
  • 6. 5 Performance Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year RateofReturn(%) ASISA SA MA Low Equity Coronation Balanced Defensive A STeFI 3m + 3%
  • 7. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - 1 year rolling alpha 6 Short-term alpha is lumpy A successful track record comes with testing years Selling inflated rand-hedge stocks Buying depressed interest rate sensitive stocks As at 30 September 2015 Selling overvalued commodity and construction shares Selling inflated domestic stocks & buying cheap global JSE listed stocks Selling overvalued defensive domestics & buying depressed commodity stocks
  • 8. 7 Alpha over meaningful periods It’s over the long term that we measure results As at 30 September 2015 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - long term alpha 5 year alpha 10 year alpha
  • 9. Domestic Equity Funds Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015. Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Coronation Equity R SIM General Equity R Prudential Equity A Coronation Top 20 A Foord Equity R Prudential Dividend Maximiser A PSG Equity A Allan Gray Equity A STANLIB Equity R Investec Value R Investec Equity R Nedgroup Inv Rainmaker A 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
  • 10. Multi Asset High Equity Funds Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015. Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Coronation Balanced Plus A Foord Balanced R Rezco Value Trend A Allan Gray Balanced A Investec Opportunity R Prudential Balanced A PSG Balanced A STANLIB Balanced B1 SIM Balanced R Nedgroup Inv Managed R Investec Managed R 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
  • 11. Global macro economic environment
  • 12. US the only major economy ready to start hiking interest rates • Although we do not expect a sharp cycle the improving economy no longer warrants zero interest rates • The big medium term (historical) reason for EM falling out of favour… remember the taper tantrum? Chinese stock market volatility must not be seen as a predictor of the economy • But the economy has slowed and a hard landing remains the greatest global macro worry • Fears about China is the proximate cause for August’s return of volatility • Policy has become more stimulatory as the economic slowdown continues Greece got to the edge of the cliff but not quite over it • Caused initial spike in volatility and eventual Grexit remains a possibility • No-one cares for now as the can has been kicked down the road Expect to hear about Greece again in 2017… • Deflation still the ECB’s major focus... no interest rate hikes on the horizon here Commodity prices fall further • Commodity producer currencies very weak Unsynchronized growth 11
  • 13. 12 US: Recovery in employment means rates will start rising Source: I-net
  • 15. 14 China: more evidence of slowdown
  • 17. 16 GEM currencies very weak vs. USD
  • 18. CNY devaluation in context - Other EM & Commodity currencies hammered 17
  • 20. 19 EMs are caught in a macro driven storm • Concerns over Chinese growth combined with Fed hike expectations and a strong USD • There has been a collapse in EM since the Chinese stock market started declining with an acceleration since the renminbi was devalued by ±3% • Many commodities and EM currencies are at levels not seen since the ‘90’s • Capital outflows from EM are now being compared to those of the GFC Surge in EM outflows hits share prices and currencies …yet life continues to go on for the companies in which we invest, their long term prospects are attractive and valuations are very low
  • 21. 20 Not a fair illustration of the opportunities available in emerging markets MSCI GEM Index
  • 22. 21 Large MSCI GEM index holdings mostly are/have: • Below average businesses – banks, energy, tech hardware • Significant state ownership / state regulation • Poor stewards of capital • Cyclical earnings An investment in these companies does NOT represent the opportunity set in EM If you invest in poor businesses, expect poor long term returns Right now: • Global macroeconomic environment is uncertain and looks especially poor in EMs • Expect volatility to continue but in EMs you can find… • Great businesses At attractive valuations With powerful long term structural drivers That make great long term investments And can’t be captured in the DM space Think beyond the index
  • 23. Russian Food Retail: the long-term opportunity 22 Top 5 grocery retailers in Russia are 20% of market (vs. 60-70% in established markets)
  • 24. Where else can you get growth like this? • Exceptional businesses • Great management teams • Experienced crises like this before and thrived • At attractive valuations Russia Food Retail 368 610 1 014 1 500 1 893 2 194 2 568 3 204 4 002 5 006 6 046 7 200 8 344 9 694 0 2 500 5 000 7 500 10 000 12 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F2015 Magnit Convenience Store Base 23
  • 25. Brazilian Private Education – why invest? 24 Government target not very aggressive 33% target DL centres exclusively private sector run Private sector has taken 90% of new campus students over this period Powerful incentive to study further given uptick in lifetime earning potential Tertiary education almost non-existent outside the wealthy
  • 26. Loan growth 1.3 – 3.0x nominal GDP for close to 20 years now • But still under-banked by most metrics Indian Banks 25
  • 27. 26 Mortgages and retail loans still very small in the mix Indian Banks
  • 28. 27 Public sector banks losing market share to private sector Indian Banks
  • 29. 28 Several businesses in many industries rapidly capturing the market Large investible universe spread across: • Search • eCommerce • Online travel • Mobile Value Added Services • Gaming • Video • Classified advertising • Recruitment • Property • General portals China Internet Stocks
  • 30. 29 Online shopping already larger than USA and still growing fast China Internet Stocks – JD.com / Alibaba
  • 31. 30 The “Google” of China China Internet Stocks - Baidu 0 250 000 500 000 750 000 1 000 000 1 250 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baidu - number of advertisers
  • 32. 31 It is normal to second guess allocation to an asset class when it has underperformed so significantly BUT A long term specific allocation to GEM is still appropriate Global equity managers are generally structurally underweight GEM • Where global managers do invest in GEM it tends to be a narrow universe of the biggest, most liquid names in the asset class Industry structural drivers that are common in GEM are simply not present in DM All asset class returns may be lower going forward Cannot afford to miss out on long term return opportunities where they are available Why invest directly in GEM?
  • 33. 32 GEM Fund upside (weighted average) and PE 0.0% 22.5% 45.0% 67.5% 90.0% 112.5% 0.0 4.5 9.0 13.5 18.0 22.5 11-Oct-10 11-Nov-10 14-Dec-10 17-Jan-11 15-Feb-11 22-Mar-11 26-Apr-11 30-May-11 4-Jul-11 8-Aug-11 12-Sept-11 17-Oct-11 21-Nov-11 3-Jan-12 6-Feb-12 12-Mar-12 16-Apr-12 21-May-12 25-Jun-12 30-Jul-12 3-Sept-12 8-Oct-12 13-Nov-12 14-Dec-12 22-Jan-13 25-Feb-13 2-Apr-13 6-May-13 6-Jun-13 8-Jul-13 12-Aug-13 16-Sept-13 17-Oct-13 18-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3-Feb-14 10-Mar-14 14-Apr-14 19-May-14 23-Jun-14 28-Jul-14 1-Sept-14 6-Oct-14 10-Nov-14 15-Dec-14 26-Jan-15 2-Mar-15 7-Apr-15 11-May-15 17-Jun-15 20-Jul-15 Ave P/E (left) Ave Upside (right)
  • 34. 33 GEM share of world GDP is up from 35% in 1993 to 50% today FX reserves in EM were half of DM in 2000, they are now double that of DM There has been (and will continue to be) improvement in economic situations • E.g. Brazil Debt/GDP is half what it was in 2002 Foreign direct investment into GEM has increased 10 fold from 2005 to 2014 • This is 30% faster than in DM While EM companies represented 5% of the Fortune Global 500 from 1980 to 2000, they are now 26% Set backs currently experienced resulting from rising US rates, shrinking commodity demand and a slowing global economy are normal and have been witnessed in most economies over time GEM has survived two massive crises in the recent past: Asian crisis of 1998 and the GFC of 2008 and come out of each stronger GEM will learn from this crisis and emerge stronger, and increasingly relevant GEM will remain relevant Source - http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/31/what-future-for-emerging-markets/
  • 35. 34 SA vs. GEM • GEM is a very different investment set from SA • SA has also provided great long term returns despite volatility DM vs. EM valuations • Upside to fair value on most stocks in our GEM coverage list far exceeds that in DM “Hot money” is fleeing EMs • These investors were never making long term allocations • “Smart money” should not be influenced by the actions of “quick money” Market performance vs. economic performance & company performance • Dislocation between company performance and macroeconomic environment • Recessions are often good for businesses over the long term Weaker players exit => reduces excess capacity Market share increases for the remainder • Stock markets move out of sync with economic performance Don’t disinvest when (macro) times are tough Don’t invest only when times are good A long term, through the cycle allocation is appropriate Size of allocation depends on valuations, which are very attractive today Some final points to consider
  • 37. 36 Low commodity prices and sluggish growth in trading partners undermining exports Reserve Bank intent on normalizing interest rates but in the weak economy a very mild cycle anticipated Lower oil has taken some pressure off inflation Combination of rising interest rates and a sluggish economy not good for already highly rated domestic equities Global environment a headwind, but we have added to our woes by scoring own goals: • Eskom – big blow to confidence and growth • The visa debacle • Poor fiscal discipline • Corruption and wasteful spending at SOE’s Downward commodity cycle and own goals
  • 40. 39 Undisciplined government spending Source: Prescient Securities (data from WEO database and the NT Budget Review)
  • 41. 40 Sorry saga at the SOE’s
  • 43. 42 Our exposure to domestic equities is low across all balanced funds on valuation grounds Massive divergence continues • Resources has sold off dramatically • Bid for SAB at very high multiple Corporate action in the platinum sector encouraging Banks relatively attractive More SA companies looking to expand off-shore • Mediclinic, Truworths, Foschini, Brait, Woolworths, Steinhoff among the more recent movers JSE listed global stocks such as Naspers, Richemont, MTN, Steinhoff and British American Tobacco continues to offer the SA investor much needed geographic diversification and offers reasonable value SA Equities
  • 46. Company 30-Jun-08 31-Jul-15 Price movePrice Price Anglo American 548.00 159.87 -71% Exxaro 144.45 74.91 -48% Impala 309.00 45.51 -85% SAB 178.05 661.48 272% Truworths 22.95 85.55 273% Bidvest 98.38 307.90 213% AVI 12.95 79.80 516% Mr Price 15.00 252.20 1581% Spar 49.50 197.87 300% Relative performance Resources versus industrials Source: I-Net 45
  • 49. JSE classification shows basic materials as 28% in Top 20 and 23% in Equity 9% / 6% is Mondi which is anything but a typical resource company 19% / 17% in ‘traditional’ resource companies On a look through basis roughly half of this is SA based mines and the rest is outside of SA Predominantly exposed to diversified miners and Platinum Lower risk commodities with less ‘China’ risk Exposure to the miners 48
  • 50. Setting the scene Supercycle and aftermath Up 900% -75% Source: I-Net Bridge 49
  • 51. 50 Chinese consumption of raw materials Source: www.visualcapitalist.com
  • 52. 51 The current outlook for commodity demand is weak across the board • Weakness in China, the major engine of demand growth • Rest of the world struggling too • Longer term threats of electric vehicles and renewable energy gaining traction Most commodities are in oversupply (still growing or not closing quickly enough) • Barriers to exit is likely to keep supply in the market for longer than expected • Last supercycle projects still being delivered • Governments often support loss-making industries to protect jobs Earnings have already collapsed and at spot prices most commodity companies are under increasing pressure and earnings and cash flows will be low Despite this, we believe the valuations of the mining companies are attractive enough to warrant a reasonable position in our funds • We prefer commodities where supply growth will be more muted in the long-term Platinum, copper, diamonds • We prefer companies with high quality, low cost, long life assets Impala and Northam Anglo American Sasol Resources sector view
  • 53. 52 Earnings are low and heading lower Price-to-earnings ratios Historic Spot Normal I-net Coronation estimate Coronation estimate Anglo American 51.1 1427 5.3 Exxaro 6.7 9.2 5.2 Impala 115.4 Neg 3.1 BHP Billiton 15.6 34.9 11.9 Glencore 21.3 137 4.4 Northam -15.4 Neg 3.8 Amplats 22.6 Neg 6.0 Sasol 8.7 11.2 8.2 … but long-term valuation looks compelling
  • 54. 53 Returns and valuations at multi decade lows
  • 55. From already low levels we have seen further severe weakness Since June Rand basket down 15% Significant implications for miners Collapse in PGM prices 54 Source: I-net
  • 56. 55 45% of industry production unable to cover cash costs 70% of industry production unable to cover cash costs + sustaining capex Only mines viable at these prices are • Amplat’s open pit Mogalakwena (needs more capex) • Zimbabwe – comes with its own specific set of challenges (ownership, taxes) etc. Logical response: cut loss making production Seen some of this already: • Amplats: 400k oz. at Rustenburg and Union • Lonmin: 100k oz. Barriers to exit in the industry are high: • Reducing labour incredibly difficult • Overheads spread over a smaller production base increasing unit costs Consequences are severe
  • 57. 56 General commodity sell-off Concerns about areas of China slowdown specific to PGMs • Platinum: jewellery demand • Palladium: auto sales Anti-diesel lobby in Europe Concerns about growth in recycling Concerns about changes in drivetrain technology: • Battery electric vehicles Concerns about changes in vehicle ownership patterns and replacement cycle: • UBER • Ride-sharing What is causing the rout?
  • 58. 57 SA and Zimbabwe have 55% of global supply of PGMs Autocats absorb 45% of Platinum and 80% of Palladium... tightening emission controls a positive 30% of Platinum goes into jewellery • Predominantly China where increasing wealth levels and rise of middle income consumer are long term drivers PGMs less dependent on China than most base metals PGMs have some attractive fundamental drivers
  • 59. 58 Trading on PE’s of 5-6x normal earnings Trading at discount to replacement cost: • Cost to build 1 vertical shaft + concentrator on Western Bushveld: R11 - R13bn • The majors operate many shaft complexes • Yet trade at market caps way below the cost to replicate their infrastructure: Lonmin: R3bn Northam: R17bn Implats: R30bn Compelling valuation
  • 60. 59 Bonds • Excessively low and even negative bond yields for low risk sovereigns offer no value • Domestic bonds offer relatively far better value • Corporate debt preferred to government debt Equities • Global (fairly valued) preferred to domestic (expensive) • Within global equities EM’s certainly cheaper but with clearly higher risk Property • On a bottom-up view we find some value in selected counters but in general the very low bond yields have pushed global property yields too low • Domestic property has likewise run hard but in a low yield world and relative to very pricey equities offers reasonable value Current asset allocation view
  • 62. 61 Expected asset class returns as at 31 July 2015 Last 10 years (ZAR) 10 year forecast (ZAR) Local equity 17.2% 7 – 10% Global equity 14.1% 10 – 13% Local property 20.4% 7 - 10% Local bonds 8.2% 6 – 9% Global bonds 10.5% 5 - 7% Cash 7.5% 6 – 8% Inflation 6.2% 6% + Asset allocation is the most important decision you make in investments Above table shows importance of alpha generation in achieving targeted return Big difference between rear-view mirror and windscreen
  • 63. 23 Alpha much more valuable in lower return environment Increase in purchasing power over n years at different real return rates “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function” - Albert A. Bartlett Real return: 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 10% n = 10 years 0.05 X 0.15 X 0.26 X 0.38 X 0.52 X 1.46 X n = 30 years 0.15 X 0.52 X 1.01 X 1.65 X 2.48 X 13.95 X
  • 65. 64 Commodities near the end of the down cycle as evidenced by many loss making producers GEM currencies (tougher to call) have experienced a big cycle already • There could be even more pain, but its difficult to argue the pain has just started Developed world stocks trade around fair value GEM stock markets have had a deep down cycle, now offering far more upside than downside SA stock market has held up quite well. Many high quality stocks trading at very high multiples in a low growth economy. Downside risk not to be ignored The lower return world we have warned about repeatedly is here Most upside can be found in bombed out cyclical sectors, but uncertainty around global and domestic growth limits our appetite for these stocks Investment outlook Where are we in the cycle?
  • 66. Sticking to our knitting… 65 “Investment risk resides most where it is least perceived, and vice versa. When everyone believes something is risky, the unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it is not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven from the price… When everyone believes something embodies no risk, they usually bid it up to the point where it’s enormously risky. As no risk is feared, no reward for risk bearing is demanded or provided. That can make the thing that is most esteemed the riskiest” - Howard Marks, Oaktree
  • 67.
  • 68. The content of this presentation and any information provided may be of a general nature and may not be based on any analysis of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the potential investor/client. As a result, there may be limitations as to the appropriateness of any information given. It is therefore recommended that the potential investor/client first obtain the appropriate legal, tax, investment or other professional advice and formulate an appropriate investment strategy that would suit the risk profile of the potential investor/client prior to acting upon such information and to consider whether any recommendation is appropriate considering the potential investor’s/client’s own objectives and particular needs. Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd is not acting, does not purport to act and is not authorised to act in any way as an advisor. Any opinions, statements or information contained herein may change and are expressed in good faith. Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd does not undertake to advise any person if such opinions, statements or information should change or become inaccurate. The value of the investments may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Coronation Fund Managers Ltd is a full member of the Association for Savings and Investment SA (ASISA). Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider (FSP 548). Disclaimer 67
  • 69. FAIS requirements CORONATION ASSET MANAGEMENT (PTY) LTD Registration No. 1993/002807/07 Herein after referred to as ‘Coronation’ INFORMATION IN TERMS OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISORY AND INTERMEDIARY SERVICES ACT Coronation is a licensed Category II and Category IIA Financial Services Provider in terms of section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002 (licence number 548). Coronation is not authorised to provide advice in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002. Coronation has been authorised to render discretionary intermediary services. Coronation is authorised to provide financial services for the following financial products: Long-Term Insurance : Category C; Pension Funds Benefits (excluding retail pension benefits); Securities and Instruments : Shares; Securities and Instruments : Money market instruments; Securities and Instruments : Debentures and securitised debt; Securities and Instruments : Warrants, certificates and other instruments; Securities and Instruments : Bonds; Securities and Instruments : Derivative instruments; Participatory interests in Collective Investment Schemes; Short Term Deposits; Long Term Deposits Coronation is a licensed Hedge Fund Financial Services Provider. The following exemptions are applicable to the licence: Exemption of investment managers and linked investment services providers and their related functionaries from fit and proper requirements (Board Notice 97 of 2003). Exemption of financial services providers as regards to representatives (Board Notice 95 of 2003). The following employees have been appointed as Key Individuals and/or Authorised Representatives: Key individuals Anton Pillay; Karl Leinberger; Kirshni Totaram; Neville Chester; John Snalam; Louis Stassen; Llewellyn Smith Authorised representatives Adrian van Pallander; Hendrik Groenewald; Alistair Lea; Karl Leinberger; Pieter Hundersmarck; Anton de Goede; Kirshni Totaram; Pranay Chagan; Kyle Wales; Quinton Ivan; Charles de Kock; Sarah-Jane Morley (married Alexander); Dirk Kotze; Sean Morris; Duane Cable; Mark le Roux; Louis Stassen; Neill Young; Siphamandla Shozi; Gavin Joubert; Neville Chester; Stephen Peirce; Godwill Chahwahwa; Pallavi Ambekar; Suhail Suleman; Peter Leger; Tracy Burton; Nishan Maharaj; Nomathibana Matshoba; Nicholas Hops (supervised); Brian Thomas; Steve Janson; Mauro Longano (supervised); Harry Moolman (supervised); Alex Dearman (supervised); Gus Robertson All Key Individuals and Representatives meet the fit and proper requirements as set out in the Board Notices to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002. Coronation holds professional indemnity and fidelity insurance cover as stipulated in the General Code of Conduct and Board Notices to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37, 2002. Any information disclosed to any of Coronation’s Authorised Representatives in their professional capacity will be treated as confidential unless written consent is obtained to disclose such information, or the disclosure of such information is required in the public interest or under a particular law. The appointed Compliance Officers are: Jamie Rowland Mark Barratt Stephan Kemp Tel: 021 680 2809 021 680 2099 021 680 7703 Fax: 021 680 2859 021 680 2199 021 680 7753 Cell: 082 434 4622 072 595 5277 082 351 2401 E-mail: jrowland@coronation.co.za mbarratt@coronation.co.za skemp@coronation.co.za Coronation’s Conflicts of Interest Management Policy, in terms of General Code of Conduct Regulations issued in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002, is available on Coronation’s website, www.coronation.com, or on request from the Compliance Officer. All complaints are taken seriously and Coronation’s aim is to ensure that all complaints are investigated and addressed in a timely and fair manner. To lodge a complaint, please contact either your Fund Manager or one of the compliance officer’s listed above. 68