This document summarizes the STANLIB Balanced Fund's investment in ArcelorMittal South Africa. Key points include:
- The fundamentals of ArcelorMittal's steel business are attractive but sentiment is negative due to uncertainties.
- An agreement was reached to stabilize iron ore costs, important for the sustainability of ArcelorMittal's Saldanha Steel plant.
- Volumes and margins have recovered as the SA economy recovers. However, risks remain around iron ore supply, BEE deals, and fines.
- Valuations are attractive at current share prices based on forecasts for earnings growth and strong free cash flow generation in coming years.
4. Balanced funds offer risk diversification during periods of market volatility
● A global balanced portfolio solution provides investors with exposure to a number of asset classes,
domestic and foreign, that are positively and negatively correlated. This diversification of assets
provides investors with the comfort that their exposure to risk is contained without unduly compromising
return
● The key to a successful global balanced solution is to combine asset allocation expertise at the portfolio
construction level along with stock selection skills at the individual asset class sub-level
● The STANLIB Balanced Franchise is responsible for asset allocation decisions. However, the underlying
asset classes within each balanced portfolio are managed by specialists in their field
● Asset allocation views have both a strategic and a tactical component. The strategic component is
long-term and is based largely on macro-economic forecasts and how the different asset classes will
perform under various conditions
● The tactical component is shorter-term and is based on the realisation that asset prices may dislocate
from their fundamentals, allowing opportunities to be exploited
● Once the asset allocation views have been formulated, the underlying asset classes are then managed by
the relevant specialist. This collective outcome captures the all the extensive expertise available at
STANLIB
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5. Balanced mandates provide diversification without unduly compromising return
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Global Global SA Listed Global SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global
SA Cash SA Equity SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity
Equity Equity Prop Bonds Prop Prop Prop Prop Prop Bonds
21% 31% 28% 55% 23% 30% 29% 61% 41% 32%
46% 51% 28% 61% 20% 41% 41% 50% 27% 45%
Global Global Global Global Global SA Listed Global Global Global
SA Bonds Balanced Balanced Global SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds Balanced
Equity Bonds Equity Bonds Equity Prop Bonds Equity Equity
16% 46% 13% Bonds 37% 16% 18% 25% 47% 19% 17% 17%
27% 18% 25% 35% 22% 56% 27% 32% 33%
Global Global Global SA Listed
Balanced SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash Balanced SA Bonds SA Equity SA Cash SA Equity Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced SA Cash SA Listed
Bonds Equity Bonds Prop
26% 16% 11% 16% 18% 47% 19% 29% 12% 16% 18% 33% 30% 13% 12% Prop 14%
12% 36% 23% 21%
Global Global Global Global SA Listed SA Listed
Balanced Balanced SA Bonds Balanced Balanced SA Cash SA Bonds SA Cash Balanced Balanced Balanced SA Bonds SA Cash SA Cash
Bonds Equity Equity Equity Prop Prop
0% 7% 32% 16% 14% 17% 5% 11% 28% -6% 14% 15% 9% 9%
24% 11% 31% 23% 28% -4%
Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global
SA Equity SA Cash SA Cash SA Equity SA Listed SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity - SA Cash SA Cash SA Bonds Balanced
Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Equity Bonds Bonds Equity
-5% 19% 15% 10% Prop 4% 29% 18% 9% 12% 8% 11% -7%
6% 24% 5% 8% 7% 18% 7% 2%
SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global Global Global Global Global
SA Bonds SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds Balanced Balanced SA Cash Balanced SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash SA Bonds
Prop Prop Prop Bonds Equity Equity Equity Equity
14% -2% -9% 7% 7% 2% 16% 7% 10% 7% 7% -1%
-11% 18% 13% -17% 3% -2% 7% -18%
Global SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global SA Listed Global Global Global Global Global
SA Cash SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity
Equity Prop Prop Prop Prop Bonds Prop Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
13% 8% -4% -10% 0% 5% 4% -23%
-17% 2% -3% -10% -10% -1% 8% -43% -13% -7% 7% -16%
5
6. Various asset classes used to reduce the impact of market volatility
Current Exposure
Domestic listed equity
Domestic listed property
Domestic bonds - government and corporate (credit)
Domestic cash
Global listed equity
Global listed property
Global bonds - government and corporate (credit)
Global cash
Derivatives
6
7. Asset allocation meeting: Decisions informed by in-house specialists
Fixed Income Equities
Economics Property
(Global) (Global)
Balanced Team asset Balanced Team asset
allocation review allocation outcome
and decisions applied across all
mandates
SA Equity Sector
Review
Best
Strategic Investment
Mandates View
RESI INDI FINI Mandates
7
Quarterly Meetings
8. Global Best Investment View Mandate:
maximum & minimum asset allocations over last 3 years
Asset Class Max Min
SA Equities 69 54.2
SA Listed Property 5.4 1.9
SA Bonds 18.4 2.4
SA Cash 15 2.2
Global Equity 15.9 0.9
Global Bonds 7.1 0.0
Global Cash 8.9 0.0
8
9. Current asset allocation (%)
The Balanced Fund The Balanced Cautious Fund
Fund BM Asset Fund BM
Asset
Weight Weight Class Weight Weight
Class Current
Current
SA Equities 58.9 60 Total Equity SA Equities 29.4 25 Total Equity
Exposure is 73.4% Exposure is 39.6%
SA SA
Property 3.6 0 Property 4.9 5
SA Bonds 6.1 25 SA Bonds 10.4 15
SA Cash 16.7 0 SA Cash 41.9 45
Global Global
14.4 9 10.2 4
Equity Equity
Global Global
0 6 3.9 6
Bonds Bonds
9
11. Market performance as at 30 September 2010 (%):
Local (Rand) 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year
Equities: SWIX 14.3 21.8 4.2
Listed Property: SAPY 13.7 30.8 10.9
Bonds: ALBI 8.0 15.3 10.1
Cash: STEFI Comp Index 1.7 7.2 9.6
Global (US Dollar)
Equity: MSCI World Index 13.8 6.8 -8.3
Bonds: Barclays Global Aggregate Index 7.3 6.1 7.4
11
12. Portfolio activity: global assets
Switched bonds into equities as bond yields dropped
Comparison of S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield
18
16
14
12 Asset Class % 30 June 30 Sep
yield (%)
10
8 Global Equity 70.9 100.0
6
4 Global Bonds 29.1 0.0
2
0 Global
0.0 0.0
Cash
Jan-60
Jan-64
Jan-68
Jan-72
Jan-76
Jan-80
Jan-84
Jan-88
Jan-92
Jan-96
Jan-00
Jan-04
Jan-08
10-Year Treasury Billl S&P 500 Dividend Yield
12
14. Global equity portfolio regional and sector exposures
Regional Exposure vs MSCI World as at Sector Positioning vs MSCI World as at
30 September 2010 30 September 2010
Emerging Markets Technology
Cash
Consumers
Asia ex Japan
Industrials
Japan
Cash
North America
Services
United Kingdom
Europe ex UK Financials
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
14
15. Portfolio activity: SA assets
Asset
30 June 30 Sep
● Increased the duration of the bonds to a neutral ALBI Class %
● Bought the long end (greater than 12 years) of the curve by switching
short dated bonds SA Equity 69.7 69.3
● Reduced exposure to bonds as yields dropped
SA Prop 4.2 4.2
● Continued foreign demand for bonds
● Improving inflation data increased the possibility of further rate cuts
SA Bonds 11.0 7.0
● Proceeds from bonds into cash – favorable risk adjusted return
SA Cash 15.1 19.4
● Marginal buyers of equity – remain overweight
15
16. Current equity sector allocation (%)
Technology
Health Care 6.1
Consumer Goods 8.0
Industrials 8.2
Oil & Gas 8.2
Telecommunications 12.9
Consumer Services 13.5
Basic Materials 19.6
Financials 23.5
0 5 10 15 20 25
16
17. Biggest over-weights and under-weights versus the SWIX
Top 5 Overweight Fund Weight % Benchmark Weight %
Investec Ltd 4.2 1.0
Sasol 8.2 5.4
Woolworths Holdings 3.6 0.8
ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd 3.4 0.7
Massmart Holdings 3.8 1.1
Top 5 Underweight Fund Weight % Benchmark Weight %
Naspers - 3.7
Anglo Platinum - 2.5
Shoprite - 1.9
Remgro - 1.9
Standard Bank Group 3.3 4.8
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19. Key considerations
● Buy was executed after agreement, facilitated by the DTI, was reached with Kumba
● This agreement stabilised iron ore input costs and sustainability of Saldanha Steel
● Correlated to SA economic recovery and GDFI
The certainties The uncertainties
● Steel economics ● Kumba iron ore dispute
● Prices ● ICT acquisition
● Volumes ● BEE deal
● Costs ● ZISCO acquisition
● Cash flow adequacy ● Competition Commission fines
● Valuations
19
20. Recent share price history
Kumba
13000
dispute over
Sishen Mine
12000
11000
Reintroduced
10000 stock into
portfolio at 2%
overweight
Portfolio
holding
9000 reduced to
zero.
8000
7000
20
21. SA steel volumes
• Volumes and capacity utilisation are recovering
Transportation Automotive
1800 100% 2% 6%
1600 90%
Pipe and tube Construction
80% 14% 25%
1400
70%
1200
60% Packaging
1000 6% Converters
50% Machinery 9%
800 8%
40%
600 Furniture and
30% appliances Service centres
400 20% 2%
21%
200 10% Energy, mining
and chemicals
0 0% 7%
Export sales Domestic sales Domestic sales % total
21
25. Uncertainties
● Kumba iron ore dispute
● Referred to arbitration
● Worst case scenario priced-in, substantial upside potential
● ICT acquisition & BEE deal
● Previously announced structure under review
● Subject to mining rights clarification
● Alternatives could emerge
● Risk to fair value muted
● ZISCO bid
● Long-term synergies marketing and raw material sourcing
● Competition Commission fines
● ACL is co-operating fully
● Partially provided for and cash on hand
25
27. Latest performance -30 September 2010 (%)
6 month 1 Year 5 Year
Balanced Fund 4.8 16.4 11.5
Peer Group Quartile 1st 1st 2nd
Balanced Cautious Fund 4.7 12.1 na
Peer Group Quartile 2nd 1st na
27
30. Investment environment – what we said at the start of the year
Global Outlook
● Sustained economic recovery from a deep recession
● Synchronised global growth
● Continued monetary and fiscal policy stimulus
● Sustained global liquidity
SA Outlook
● Economic recovery to gain momentum, saw moderate GDP acceleration in Q3 2009
● Export volumes to continue to rise
● Inflation contained within the target range
● Rates to remain on hold well into 2010
● Supportive Rand factors to continue until at least June 2010
30
31. Key global macro themes for 2011
● Fed continues with liquidity programme for most of 2011, but starts to ease-up
towards year-end leading to a sell-off in global bonds. Fiscal austerity programmes to
continue
● Some re-balancing of global capital flows, investors looking for under-valued assets in
developed markets. Emerging market currencies weaken, but not collapse
● Longer-term growth differential between emerging and developed economies
becomes more entrenched despite the re-balancing of global flows
● M&A activity increases more noticeably in 2011, helped by the low cost of capital
● Commodity prices supported by supply constraints and solid demand from emerging
economies.
31
33. Emerging market equity’s weight in MSCI All Countries Index
%, weight in index
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
33
34. Key SA macro themes for 2011
● SA consumer activity set to improve in 2011, helped by real wage increases and growth
in consumer credit
● Inflation and interest rates expected to drift sideways for most of 2011, but concerns
about food inflation on the rise.
● Fixed investment spending expected to remain subdued for most of 2011 except for
some public sector projects. A pick-up in private sector investment is a theme for 2012
● SA policy debate remains a focus, including nationalisation, inflation targeting, Rand
strength, land claims, NHI. Don’t except much actual change
● Rand remains well supported over the coming months, but the factors supporting the
Rand should slowly dissipate in 2011
34
35. SA growth in consumer spending vs disposable income
%, q/q
13
12
11 Disposable Income
10
9
8
7 Consumer spending
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Debt servicing costs at historical lows
35
37. Growth in private sector fixed investment spending vs prime interest rates
%y/y
%
20 5
18
16 7
Private sector investment (lhs)
14
9
12
10 11
8
6 13
4
15
2
0 17
-2
-4 19
-6
-8
Prime interest rates (rhs) 21
-10 23
-12
-14 25
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Current level of interest rates should result in
37 more investment spending into 2012
38. SA fixed investment spending by institutional group
Index Q1 2003 = 100
480
Public corporations
440
400
360
320
280
240
General government
200
160
Private sector
120
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
38
39. Portfolio positioning summary
Portfolio
• Equities remain our preferred asset class Asset Class Weight %
Benchmark
Weight %
Current
• Notably global equities
SA Equities 58.9 60
• We have down-weight bonds SA Property 3.6 0
• Bearish on global bonds
SA Bonds 6.1 25
• Retained SA listed property as a fixed interest proxy – SA Cash 16.7 0
distribution growth and stable bond yields
Global
14.4 9
Equities
• 12 month cash return of 6.4% favorable relative to bonds Global
0.0 6
Bonds
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Information and Content
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whatsoever which may be attributable (directly, indirectly or consequentially) to the use of the information provided.
STANLIB Asset Management Limited
Registration No: 1969/002753/06. A Financial Services Provider licensed under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of
2002. FSP license No: 719.
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