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STANLIB Balanced Funds


“Balanced Investing in volatile markets”




                       November 2010
Agenda

● Balanced Investing in volatile markets



● Portfolio Activity


● Stock Focus

    ● ArcelorMittal Investment Case



● Portfolio Performance


● Investment Environment & Outlook into 2011



2
Balanced Investing in volatile markets
Balanced funds offer risk diversification during periods of market volatility

●   A global balanced portfolio solution provides investors with exposure to a number of asset classes,
    domestic and foreign, that are positively and negatively correlated. This diversification of assets
    provides investors with the comfort that their exposure to risk is contained without unduly compromising
    return

●   The key to a successful global balanced solution is to combine asset allocation expertise at the portfolio
    construction level along with stock selection skills at the individual asset class sub-level

●   The STANLIB Balanced Franchise is responsible for asset allocation decisions. However, the underlying
    asset classes within each balanced portfolio are managed by specialists in their field

●   Asset allocation views have both a strategic and a tactical component. The strategic component is
    long-term and is based largely on macro-economic forecasts and how the different asset classes will
    perform under various conditions

●   The tactical component is shorter-term and is based on the realisation that asset prices may dislocate
    from their fundamentals, allowing opportunities to be exploited

●   Once the asset allocation views have been formulated, the underlying asset classes are then managed by
    the relevant specialist. This collective outcome captures the all the extensive expertise available at
    STANLIB




4
Balanced mandates provide diversification without unduly compromising return

 1990       1991       1992       1993      1994       1995      1996       1997        1998        1999        2000       2001        2002      2003       2004      2005      2006        2007      2008         2009


                                                                 Global                 Global                 SA Listed    Global     SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed           SA Listed     Global
SA Cash     SA Equity SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds                 SA Bonds               SA Equity                                                                   SA Equity                          SA Equity
                                                                 Equity                 Equity                   Prop       Bonds        Prop      Prop      Prop      Prop                Prop        Bonds
  21%          31%      28%       55%       23%      30%                      29%                     61%                                                                         41%                                32%
                                                                  46%                    51%                     28%         61%         20%       41%       41%       50%                 27%          45%


             Global    Global                          Global    Global      Global                SA Listed    Global      Global                                               Global
SA Bonds                          Balanced Balanced                                     Global                                         SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity                SA Equity SA Bonds Balanced
             Equity    Bonds                           Equity    Bonds       Equity                  Prop       Bonds       Equity                                               Equity
  16%                               46%      13%                                       Bonds 37%                                         16%      18%       25%       47%                      19%      17%      17%
              27%       18%                             25%       35%         22%                    56%         27%         32%                                                  33%


 Global                            Global              Global               SA Listed
            Balanced SA Cash                SA Cash              SA Cash              SA Cash Balanced SA Bonds SA Equity SA Cash                SA Equity Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced        SA Cash     SA Listed
 Bonds                             Equity              Bonds                  Prop
              26%      16%                    11%                  16%                  18%     47%      19%       29%      12%                     16%      18%      33%      30%      13%             12%       Prop 14%
  12%                               36%                 23%                   21%


             Global                          Global                                                 Global                                                            Global    SA Listed             SA Listed
Balanced              Balanced SA Bonds               Balanced Balanced     SA Cash    SA Bonds                SA Cash Balanced Balanced Balanced SA Bonds                                  SA Cash               SA Cash
             Bonds                           Equity                                                 Equity                                                            Equity      Prop                  Prop
   0%                    7%      32%                    16%      14%          17%         5%                     11%     28%       -6%     14%      15%                                       9%                    9%
              24%                             11%                                                    31%                                                               23%        28%                    -4%


                       Global      Global    Global                          Global                             Global                                                           Global      Global                Global
SA Equity   SA Cash                                   SA Cash   SA Equity              SA Listed SA Bonds                  SA Bonds SA Equity - SA Cash    SA Cash   SA Bonds                         Balanced
                       Equity      Bonds     Bonds                           Bonds                              Equity                                                           Bonds       Bonds                 Equity
   -5%        19%                                       15%        10%                  Prop 4%    29%                       18%        9%        12%        8%        11%                               -7%
                         6%         24%        5%                              8%                                 7%                                                              18%          7%                    2%


SA Listed                    SA Listed          SA Listed                                                                               Global    Global    Global                           Global    Global
          SA Bonds SA Equity           SA Bonds           SA Bonds Balanced Balanced SA Cash                   Balanced SA Cash                                      SA Cash    SA Cash                           SA Bonds
  Prop                         Prop               Prop                                                                                  Bonds     Equity    Equity                           Equity    Equity
            14%       -2%                 -9%                7%       7%       2%      16%                        7%      10%                                          7%         7%                                 -1%
  -11%                         18%                13%                                                                                    -17%       3%       -2%                               7%       -18%


 Global     SA Listed SA Listed             SA Listed           SA Listed                           Global                 SA Listed    Global    Global    Global    Global                                       Global
                                  SA Cash             SA Equity           SA Equity SA Equity                  SA Equity                                                        SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity
 Equity       Prop      Prop                  Prop                Prop                              Bonds                    Prop       Equity    Bonds     Bonds     Bonds                                        Bonds
                                    13%                  8%                  -4%      -10%                        0%                                                               5%       4%      -23%
  -17%         2%        -3%                  -10%                -10%                               -1%                      8%         -43%      -13%      -7%        7%                                          -16%




            5
Various asset classes used to reduce the impact of market volatility


                                                         Current Exposure
Domestic listed equity                                          
Domestic listed property                                        
Domestic bonds - government and corporate (credit)              
Domestic cash                                                   
Global listed equity                                            
Global listed property                                          
Global bonds - government and corporate (credit)                
Global cash                                                     
Derivatives                                                     



6
Asset allocation meeting: Decisions informed by in-house specialists

                     Fixed Income           Equities
     Economics                                          Property
                        (Global)            (Global)




      Balanced Team asset                                          Balanced Team asset
       allocation review                                            allocation outcome
         and decisions                                               applied across all
                                                                         mandates

        SA Equity Sector
            Review
                                                                                  Best
                                                         Strategic             Investment
                                                         Mandates                 View
        RESI                INDI              FINI                              Mandates



 7
                                   Quarterly Meetings
Global Best Investment View Mandate:
maximum & minimum asset allocations over last 3 years

      Asset Class                Max                Min


      SA Equities                69                 54.2

      SA Listed Property         5.4                1.9

      SA Bonds                   18.4               2.4

      SA Cash                    15                 2.2

      Global Equity              15.9               0.9

      Global Bonds               7.1                0.0

      Global Cash                8.9                0.0




 8
Current asset allocation (%)
                The Balanced Fund                              The Balanced Cautious Fund


                      Fund       BM                          Asset          Fund      BM
     Asset
                     Weight     Weight                       Class         Weight    Weight
     Class                                                                 Current
                     Current



     SA Equities      58.9          60   Total Equity        SA Equities    29.4       25     Total Equity
                                         Exposure is 73.4%                                    Exposure is 39.6%
     SA                                                      SA
     Property          3.6          0                        Property       4.9        5



     SA Bonds          6.1          25                       SA Bonds       10.4       15


     SA Cash          16.7          0                        SA Cash        41.9       45


     Global                                                  Global
                      14.4          9                                       10.2       4
     Equity                                                  Equity

     Global                                                  Global
                        0           6                                       3.9        6
     Bonds                                                   Bonds




 9
Portfolio Activity
Market performance as at 30 September 2010 (%):


 Local (Rand)                             3 Month   1 Year   3 Year

 Equities: SWIX                            14.3      21.8     4.2

 Listed Property: SAPY                     13.7      30.8     10.9

 Bonds: ALBI                                8.0      15.3     10.1

 Cash: STEFI Comp Index                     1.7      7.2      9.6

 Global (US Dollar)

 Equity: MSCI World Index                  13.8      6.8      -8.3

 Bonds: Barclays Global Aggregate Index     7.3      6.1      7.4




 11
Portfolio activity: global assets
     Switched bonds into equities as bond yields dropped

                             Comparison of S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield
             18

             16

             14

             12                                                                                                                           Asset Class %   30 June   30 Sep
yield (%)




             10

              8                                                                                                                           Global Equity    70.9     100.0
              6

              4                                                                                                                           Global Bonds     29.1      0.0
              2

              0                                                                                                                           Global
                                                                                                                                                            0.0      0.0
                                                                                                                                          Cash
                  Jan-60


                           Jan-64


                                    Jan-68


                                             Jan-72


                                                       Jan-76


                                                                Jan-80


                                                                         Jan-84


                                                                                  Jan-88


                                                                                             Jan-92


                                                                                                      Jan-96


                                                                                                               Jan-00


                                                                                                                        Jan-04


                                                                                                                                 Jan-08
                                                  10-Year Treasury Billl                   S&P 500 Dividend Yield




            12
Changes in US mutual fund assets




 13
Global equity portfolio regional and sector exposures

             Regional Exposure vs MSCI World as at                             Sector Positioning vs MSCI World as at
                      30 September 2010                                                 30 September 2010


Emerging Markets                                                 Technology


           Cash
                                                                 Consumers


   Asia ex Japan
                                                                 Industrials

          Japan

                                                                       Cash
  North America


                                                                   Services
 United Kingdom



    Europe ex UK                                                  Financials



               -10%   -5%   0%   5%    10%   15%     20%   25%             -20%   -15%   -10%    -5%    0%      5%      10%   15%




   14
Portfolio activity: SA assets

                                                                                  Asset
                                                                                              30 June   30 Sep
● Increased the duration of the bonds to a neutral ALBI                           Class %

      ● Bought the long end (greater than 12 years) of the curve by switching

        short dated bonds                                                         SA Equity    69.7      69.3



● Reduced exposure to bonds as yields dropped
                                                                                  SA Prop       4.2      4.2
      ● Continued foreign demand for bonds

      ● Improving inflation data increased the possibility of further rate cuts
                                                                                  SA Bonds     11.0      7.0


● Proceeds from bonds into cash – favorable risk adjusted return
                                                                                  SA Cash      15.1      19.4


● Marginal buyers of equity – remain overweight




 15
Current equity sector allocation (%)

            Technology

           Health Care             6.1

       Consumer Goods                    8.0

             Industrials                 8.2

              Oil & Gas                  8.2

  Telecommunications                                12.9

      Consumer Services                              13.5

         Basic Materials                                        19.6

              Financials                                               23.5

                           0   5               10          15   20       25




 16
Biggest over-weights and under-weights versus the SWIX

Top 5 Overweight                 Fund Weight %    Benchmark Weight %

Investec Ltd                          4.2                1.0
Sasol                                 8.2                5.4
Woolworths Holdings                   3.6                0.8
ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd        3.4                0.7
Massmart Holdings                     3.8                1.1



Top 5 Underweight                Fund Weight %    Benchmark Weight %

Naspers                                -                 3.7
Anglo Platinum                         -                 2.5
Shoprite                               -                 1.9
Remgro                                 -                 1.9
Standard Bank Group                   3.3                4.8



 17
ArcelorMittal Investment Case

“Fundamentals are attractive – sentiment not so”
Key considerations

  ● Buy was executed after agreement, facilitated by the DTI, was reached with Kumba

  ● This agreement stabilised iron ore input costs and sustainability of Saldanha Steel

  ● Correlated to SA economic recovery and GDFI
       The certainties                                   The uncertainties
       ●   Steel economics                               ●   Kumba iron ore dispute

       ●   Prices                                        ●   ICT acquisition

       ●   Volumes                                       ●   BEE deal

       ●   Costs                                         ●   ZISCO acquisition

       ●   Cash flow adequacy                            ●   Competition Commission fines

       ●   Valuations




 19
Recent share price history
                                        Kumba
 13000
                                     dispute over
                                     Sishen Mine

 12000



 11000

                                                     Reintroduced
 10000                                                 stock into
                                                    portfolio at 2%
                                                      overweight
                         Portfolio
                          holding
  9000                  reduced to
                           zero.


  8000



  7000




  20
SA steel volumes



  •     Volumes and capacity utilisation are recovering

                                                                              Transportation   Automotive
1800                                                                 100%           2%             6%
1600                                                                 90%
                                                                            Pipe and tube                      Construction
                                                                     80%         14%                               25%
1400
                                                                     70%
1200
                                                                     60%     Packaging
1000                                                                            6%                                 Converters
                                                                     50%     Machinery                                9%
 800                                                                             8%
                                                                     40%
 600                                                                         Furniture and
                                                                     30%      appliances         Service centres
 400                                                                 20%           2%
                                                                                                       21%
 200                                                                 10%    Energy, mining
                                                                            and chemicals
  0                                                                  0%          7%




            Export sales   Domestic sales   Domestic sales % total




   21
Operating margin recovery

      45%

      40%

      35%

      30%

      25%

      20%

      15%

      10%

      5%

      0%

      -5%

  -10%




 22
Attractive valuation


                                  2500
8.0

7.0
                                  2000
6.0

5.0                               1500

4.0
                                  1000
3.0

2.0
                                  500
1.0

0.0                                 0




           EV / EBITDA (CY2010)          EV / ton (US$)




      23
Financial forecasts

                      2009a   2010e   2011e   2012e

       EPS            -88.9    815    1180    1760

       EPS growth %           1017     45     49.2

       PE             -93.4   10.2      7      4.7

       DPS              0      300     400     600

       DPS growth %                    33      50

       DY %             0      3.6     4.8     7.2

       NAV cps        5180    5100    5300    5500

       FreeCFps        730     795    1250    1836

       RoE %          -1.4    12.4    17.8    21.1




  24
Uncertainties

  ●   Kumba iron ore dispute
       ●   Referred to arbitration

       ●   Worst case scenario priced-in, substantial upside potential

  ●   ICT acquisition & BEE deal
       ●   Previously announced structure under review

       ●   Subject to mining rights clarification

       ●   Alternatives could emerge

       ●   Risk to fair value muted

  ●   ZISCO bid
       ●   Long-term synergies marketing and raw material sourcing

  ●   Competition Commission fines
       ●   ACL is co-operating fully

       ●   Partially provided for and cash on hand



 25
Portfolio Performance
Latest performance -30 September 2010 (%)



                                  6 month   1 Year   5 Year



      Balanced Fund                 4.8      16.4     11.5

      Peer Group Quartile           1st      1st      2nd


      Balanced Cautious Fund        4.7      12.1     na


      Peer Group Quartile           2nd      1st      na




 27
Quartile Performance – It’s been a good year to date
Funds                                 3 Month     6 Month   YTD   1 Year   3 Year   5 Year

                                         Risk Profiled

STANLIB Conservative FoF               2nd           1st    1st    1st      2nd      2nd

STANLIB Moderately Conservative FoF     1st          1st    1st    1st      4th      1st

STANLIB Moderate FoF                    1st          1st    1st    1st      3rd      3rd

STANLIB Moderately Aggressive FoF       1st          1st    1st    1st      4th      3rd

STANLIB Aggressive FoF                  1st          2nd    1st    1st      4th      3rd

                                              Balanced

STANLIB Balanced Cautious               1st          2nd    1st    1st       -        -

STANLIB Balanced                        1st          1st    1st    1st      4th      3rd




 28
Investment Environment
          &
   Outlook into 2011
Investment environment – what we said at the start of the year

Global Outlook
● Sustained economic recovery from a deep recession 

● Synchronised global growth 

● Continued monetary and fiscal policy stimulus

● Sustained global liquidity 

SA Outlook
●        Economic recovery to gain momentum, saw moderate GDP acceleration in Q3 2009
●        Export volumes to continue to rise 
●        Inflation contained within the target range 
●        Rates to remain on hold well into 2010
●        Supportive Rand factors to continue until at least June 2010



    30
Key global macro themes for 2011

● Fed continues with liquidity programme for most of 2011, but starts to ease-up
     towards year-end leading to a sell-off in global bonds. Fiscal austerity programmes to
     continue

● Some re-balancing of global capital flows, investors looking for under-valued assets in
     developed markets. Emerging market currencies weaken, but not collapse

● Longer-term growth differential between emerging and developed economies
     becomes more entrenched despite the re-balancing of global flows

● M&A activity increases more noticeably in 2011, helped by the low cost of capital

● Commodity prices supported by supply constraints and solid demand from emerging
     economies.




31
Fixed income flows into emerging market funds




 32
Emerging market equity’s weight in MSCI All Countries Index
   %, weight in index
       15
       14
       13
       12
       11
       10
        9
        8
        7
        6
        5
        4
        3
        2
        1
        0
            1995

                   1996

                          1997

                                 1998

                                        1999

                                               2000

                                                      2001

                                                             2002

                                                                    2003

                                                                           2004

                                                                                  2005

                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                              2009

                                                                                                                     2010
  33
Key SA macro themes for 2011

 ● SA consumer activity set to improve in 2011, helped by real wage increases and growth
      in consumer credit

 ● Inflation and interest rates expected to drift sideways for most of 2011, but concerns
      about food inflation on the rise.

 ● Fixed investment spending expected to remain subdued for most of 2011 except for
      some public sector projects. A pick-up in private sector investment is a theme for 2012

 ● SA policy debate remains a focus, including nationalisation, inflation targeting, Rand
      strength, land claims, NHI. Don’t except much actual change

 ● Rand remains well supported over the coming months, but the factors supporting the
      Rand should slowly dissipate in 2011




 34
SA growth in consumer spending vs disposable income
%, q/q
       13
       12
       11          Disposable Income
       10
        9
        8
        7                                                            Consumer spending
        6
        5
        4
        3
        2
        1
        0
       -1
       -2
       -3
       -4
       -5
       -6
       -7
       -8
            2002



                    2003



                             2004



                                       2005



                                              2006



                                                      2007



                                                              2008



                                                                          2009



                                                                                   2010



                                                                                          2011
                             Debt servicing costs at historical lows
  35
SA consumer credit
R billion, month-on-month, 3-month moving average
      17
      16
      15
      14
      13
      12
      11
      10
       9
       8
       7
       6
       5
       4
       3
       2
       1
       0
      -1
      -2
           2006            2007                2008   2009   2010




 36
Growth in private sector fixed investment spending vs prime interest rates
 %y/y
                                                                                                                %
        20                                                                                                 5
        18
        16                                                                                                 7
                    Private sector investment (lhs)
        14
                                                                                                           9
        12
        10                                                                                                 11
         8
         6                                                                                                 13
         4
                                                                                                           15
         2
         0                                                                                                 17
        -2
        -4                                                                                                 19
        -6
        -8
                                                          Prime interest rates (rhs)                       21
       -10                                                                                                 23
       -12
       -14                                                                                                 25
             1998


                    1999


                              2000


                                     2001


                                            2002


                                                   2003


                                                          2004


                                                                 2005


                                                                        2006


                                                                               2007


                                                                                      2008


                                                                                             2009


                                                                                                    2010
                           Current level of interest rates should result in
  37                             more investment spending into 2012
SA fixed investment spending by institutional group
Index Q1 2003 = 100
       480
                                                         Public corporations
       440

       400

       360

       320

       280

       240
                                                           General government
       200

       160
                                                              Private sector
       120

        80
             2003




                      2004




                             2005




                                    2006




                                           2007




                                                  2008




                                                                 2009




                                                                               2010
 38
Portfolio positioning summary
                                                                           Portfolio
• Equities remain our preferred asset class                  Asset Class   Weight %
                                                                                       Benchmark
                                                                                        Weight %
                                                                           Current
      •   Notably global equities
                                                             SA Equities     58.9         60


• We have down-weight bonds                                  SA Property     3.6           0

      •   Bearish on global bonds
                                                             SA Bonds        6.1          25


• Retained SA listed property as a fixed interest proxy –    SA Cash         16.7          0
 distribution growth and stable bond yields
                                                             Global
                                                                             14.4          9
                                                             Equities

• 12 month cash return of 6.4% favorable relative to bonds   Global
                                                                             0.0           6
                                                             Bonds




 39
Thank You
Legal Notice

Information and Content
The information and content (collectively 'information') provided herein are provided by STANLIB Asset Management (“STANLIBAM”) as
general information for information purposes only. STANLIB does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any information or
particular investment source. Any information herein is not intended nor does it constitute financial, tax, legal, investment, or other
advice. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should consult a qualified Financial Adviser. Nothing
contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or offer by STANLIBAM.

Copyright
The information provided herein are the possession of STANLIBAM and are protected by copyright and intellectual property laws. The
information may not be reproduced or distributed without the explicit consent of STANLIBAM.

Disclaimer
STANLIB has taken care to ensure that all information provided herein is true and accurate. STANLIB will therefore not be held responsible
for any inaccuracies in the information herein. STANLIBAM shall not be responsible and disclaims all loss, liability or expense of any nature
whatsoever which may be attributable (directly, indirectly or consequentially) to the use of the information provided.

STANLIB Asset Management Limited
Registration No: 1969/002753/06. A Financial Services Provider licensed under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of
2002. FSP license No: 719.




41

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Stanib balance fund_q3_2010

  • 1. STANLIB Balanced Funds “Balanced Investing in volatile markets” November 2010
  • 2. Agenda ● Balanced Investing in volatile markets ● Portfolio Activity ● Stock Focus ● ArcelorMittal Investment Case ● Portfolio Performance ● Investment Environment & Outlook into 2011 2
  • 3. Balanced Investing in volatile markets
  • 4. Balanced funds offer risk diversification during periods of market volatility ● A global balanced portfolio solution provides investors with exposure to a number of asset classes, domestic and foreign, that are positively and negatively correlated. This diversification of assets provides investors with the comfort that their exposure to risk is contained without unduly compromising return ● The key to a successful global balanced solution is to combine asset allocation expertise at the portfolio construction level along with stock selection skills at the individual asset class sub-level ● The STANLIB Balanced Franchise is responsible for asset allocation decisions. However, the underlying asset classes within each balanced portfolio are managed by specialists in their field ● Asset allocation views have both a strategic and a tactical component. The strategic component is long-term and is based largely on macro-economic forecasts and how the different asset classes will perform under various conditions ● The tactical component is shorter-term and is based on the realisation that asset prices may dislocate from their fundamentals, allowing opportunities to be exploited ● Once the asset allocation views have been formulated, the underlying asset classes are then managed by the relevant specialist. This collective outcome captures the all the extensive expertise available at STANLIB 4
  • 5. Balanced mandates provide diversification without unduly compromising return 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Global Global SA Listed Global SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global SA Cash SA Equity SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity Equity Equity Prop Bonds Prop Prop Prop Prop Prop Bonds 21% 31% 28% 55% 23% 30% 29% 61% 41% 32% 46% 51% 28% 61% 20% 41% 41% 50% 27% 45% Global Global Global Global Global SA Listed Global Global Global SA Bonds Balanced Balanced Global SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds Balanced Equity Bonds Equity Bonds Equity Prop Bonds Equity Equity 16% 46% 13% Bonds 37% 16% 18% 25% 47% 19% 17% 17% 27% 18% 25% 35% 22% 56% 27% 32% 33% Global Global Global SA Listed Balanced SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash Balanced SA Bonds SA Equity SA Cash SA Equity Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced SA Cash SA Listed Bonds Equity Bonds Prop 26% 16% 11% 16% 18% 47% 19% 29% 12% 16% 18% 33% 30% 13% 12% Prop 14% 12% 36% 23% 21% Global Global Global Global SA Listed SA Listed Balanced Balanced SA Bonds Balanced Balanced SA Cash SA Bonds SA Cash Balanced Balanced Balanced SA Bonds SA Cash SA Cash Bonds Equity Equity Equity Prop Prop 0% 7% 32% 16% 14% 17% 5% 11% 28% -6% 14% 15% 9% 9% 24% 11% 31% 23% 28% -4% Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global SA Equity SA Cash SA Cash SA Equity SA Listed SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity - SA Cash SA Cash SA Bonds Balanced Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Equity Bonds Bonds Equity -5% 19% 15% 10% Prop 4% 29% 18% 9% 12% 8% 11% -7% 6% 24% 5% 8% 7% 18% 7% 2% SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global Global Global Global Global SA Bonds SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds Balanced Balanced SA Cash Balanced SA Cash SA Cash SA Cash SA Bonds Prop Prop Prop Bonds Equity Equity Equity Equity 14% -2% -9% 7% 7% 2% 16% 7% 10% 7% 7% -1% -11% 18% 13% -17% 3% -2% 7% -18% Global SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed SA Listed Global SA Listed Global Global Global Global Global SA Cash SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Equity SA Bonds SA Bonds SA Equity Equity Prop Prop Prop Prop Bonds Prop Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds 13% 8% -4% -10% 0% 5% 4% -23% -17% 2% -3% -10% -10% -1% 8% -43% -13% -7% 7% -16% 5
  • 6. Various asset classes used to reduce the impact of market volatility Current Exposure Domestic listed equity  Domestic listed property  Domestic bonds - government and corporate (credit)  Domestic cash  Global listed equity  Global listed property  Global bonds - government and corporate (credit)  Global cash  Derivatives  6
  • 7. Asset allocation meeting: Decisions informed by in-house specialists Fixed Income Equities Economics Property (Global) (Global) Balanced Team asset Balanced Team asset allocation review allocation outcome and decisions applied across all mandates SA Equity Sector Review Best Strategic Investment Mandates View RESI INDI FINI Mandates 7 Quarterly Meetings
  • 8. Global Best Investment View Mandate: maximum & minimum asset allocations over last 3 years Asset Class Max Min SA Equities 69 54.2 SA Listed Property 5.4 1.9 SA Bonds 18.4 2.4 SA Cash 15 2.2 Global Equity 15.9 0.9 Global Bonds 7.1 0.0 Global Cash 8.9 0.0 8
  • 9. Current asset allocation (%) The Balanced Fund The Balanced Cautious Fund Fund BM Asset Fund BM Asset Weight Weight Class Weight Weight Class Current Current SA Equities 58.9 60 Total Equity SA Equities 29.4 25 Total Equity Exposure is 73.4% Exposure is 39.6% SA SA Property 3.6 0 Property 4.9 5 SA Bonds 6.1 25 SA Bonds 10.4 15 SA Cash 16.7 0 SA Cash 41.9 45 Global Global 14.4 9 10.2 4 Equity Equity Global Global 0 6 3.9 6 Bonds Bonds 9
  • 11. Market performance as at 30 September 2010 (%): Local (Rand) 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year Equities: SWIX 14.3 21.8 4.2 Listed Property: SAPY 13.7 30.8 10.9 Bonds: ALBI 8.0 15.3 10.1 Cash: STEFI Comp Index 1.7 7.2 9.6 Global (US Dollar) Equity: MSCI World Index 13.8 6.8 -8.3 Bonds: Barclays Global Aggregate Index 7.3 6.1 7.4 11
  • 12. Portfolio activity: global assets Switched bonds into equities as bond yields dropped Comparison of S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield 18 16 14 12 Asset Class % 30 June 30 Sep yield (%) 10 8 Global Equity 70.9 100.0 6 4 Global Bonds 29.1 0.0 2 0 Global 0.0 0.0 Cash Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 10-Year Treasury Billl S&P 500 Dividend Yield 12
  • 13. Changes in US mutual fund assets 13
  • 14. Global equity portfolio regional and sector exposures Regional Exposure vs MSCI World as at Sector Positioning vs MSCI World as at 30 September 2010 30 September 2010 Emerging Markets Technology Cash Consumers Asia ex Japan Industrials Japan Cash North America Services United Kingdom Europe ex UK Financials -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 14
  • 15. Portfolio activity: SA assets Asset 30 June 30 Sep ● Increased the duration of the bonds to a neutral ALBI Class % ● Bought the long end (greater than 12 years) of the curve by switching short dated bonds SA Equity 69.7 69.3 ● Reduced exposure to bonds as yields dropped SA Prop 4.2 4.2 ● Continued foreign demand for bonds ● Improving inflation data increased the possibility of further rate cuts SA Bonds 11.0 7.0 ● Proceeds from bonds into cash – favorable risk adjusted return SA Cash 15.1 19.4 ● Marginal buyers of equity – remain overweight 15
  • 16. Current equity sector allocation (%) Technology Health Care 6.1 Consumer Goods 8.0 Industrials 8.2 Oil & Gas 8.2 Telecommunications 12.9 Consumer Services 13.5 Basic Materials 19.6 Financials 23.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 16
  • 17. Biggest over-weights and under-weights versus the SWIX Top 5 Overweight Fund Weight % Benchmark Weight % Investec Ltd 4.2 1.0 Sasol 8.2 5.4 Woolworths Holdings 3.6 0.8 ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd 3.4 0.7 Massmart Holdings 3.8 1.1 Top 5 Underweight Fund Weight % Benchmark Weight % Naspers - 3.7 Anglo Platinum - 2.5 Shoprite - 1.9 Remgro - 1.9 Standard Bank Group 3.3 4.8 17
  • 18. ArcelorMittal Investment Case “Fundamentals are attractive – sentiment not so”
  • 19. Key considerations ● Buy was executed after agreement, facilitated by the DTI, was reached with Kumba ● This agreement stabilised iron ore input costs and sustainability of Saldanha Steel ● Correlated to SA economic recovery and GDFI The certainties The uncertainties ● Steel economics ● Kumba iron ore dispute ● Prices ● ICT acquisition ● Volumes ● BEE deal ● Costs ● ZISCO acquisition ● Cash flow adequacy ● Competition Commission fines ● Valuations 19
  • 20. Recent share price history Kumba 13000 dispute over Sishen Mine 12000 11000 Reintroduced 10000 stock into portfolio at 2% overweight Portfolio holding 9000 reduced to zero. 8000 7000 20
  • 21. SA steel volumes • Volumes and capacity utilisation are recovering Transportation Automotive 1800 100% 2% 6% 1600 90% Pipe and tube Construction 80% 14% 25% 1400 70% 1200 60% Packaging 1000 6% Converters 50% Machinery 9% 800 8% 40% 600 Furniture and 30% appliances Service centres 400 20% 2% 21% 200 10% Energy, mining and chemicals 0 0% 7% Export sales Domestic sales Domestic sales % total 21
  • 22. Operating margin recovery 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 22
  • 23. Attractive valuation 2500 8.0 7.0 2000 6.0 5.0 1500 4.0 1000 3.0 2.0 500 1.0 0.0 0 EV / EBITDA (CY2010) EV / ton (US$) 23
  • 24. Financial forecasts 2009a 2010e 2011e 2012e EPS -88.9 815 1180 1760 EPS growth % 1017 45 49.2 PE -93.4 10.2 7 4.7 DPS 0 300 400 600 DPS growth % 33 50 DY % 0 3.6 4.8 7.2 NAV cps 5180 5100 5300 5500 FreeCFps 730 795 1250 1836 RoE % -1.4 12.4 17.8 21.1 24
  • 25. Uncertainties ● Kumba iron ore dispute ● Referred to arbitration ● Worst case scenario priced-in, substantial upside potential ● ICT acquisition & BEE deal ● Previously announced structure under review ● Subject to mining rights clarification ● Alternatives could emerge ● Risk to fair value muted ● ZISCO bid ● Long-term synergies marketing and raw material sourcing ● Competition Commission fines ● ACL is co-operating fully ● Partially provided for and cash on hand 25
  • 27. Latest performance -30 September 2010 (%) 6 month 1 Year 5 Year Balanced Fund 4.8 16.4 11.5 Peer Group Quartile 1st 1st 2nd Balanced Cautious Fund 4.7 12.1 na Peer Group Quartile 2nd 1st na 27
  • 28. Quartile Performance – It’s been a good year to date Funds 3 Month 6 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Risk Profiled STANLIB Conservative FoF 2nd 1st 1st 1st 2nd 2nd STANLIB Moderately Conservative FoF 1st 1st 1st 1st 4th 1st STANLIB Moderate FoF 1st 1st 1st 1st 3rd 3rd STANLIB Moderately Aggressive FoF 1st 1st 1st 1st 4th 3rd STANLIB Aggressive FoF 1st 2nd 1st 1st 4th 3rd Balanced STANLIB Balanced Cautious 1st 2nd 1st 1st - - STANLIB Balanced 1st 1st 1st 1st 4th 3rd 28
  • 29. Investment Environment & Outlook into 2011
  • 30. Investment environment – what we said at the start of the year Global Outlook ● Sustained economic recovery from a deep recession  ● Synchronised global growth  ● Continued monetary and fiscal policy stimulus ● Sustained global liquidity  SA Outlook ● Economic recovery to gain momentum, saw moderate GDP acceleration in Q3 2009 ● Export volumes to continue to rise  ● Inflation contained within the target range  ● Rates to remain on hold well into 2010 ● Supportive Rand factors to continue until at least June 2010 30
  • 31. Key global macro themes for 2011 ● Fed continues with liquidity programme for most of 2011, but starts to ease-up towards year-end leading to a sell-off in global bonds. Fiscal austerity programmes to continue ● Some re-balancing of global capital flows, investors looking for under-valued assets in developed markets. Emerging market currencies weaken, but not collapse ● Longer-term growth differential between emerging and developed economies becomes more entrenched despite the re-balancing of global flows ● M&A activity increases more noticeably in 2011, helped by the low cost of capital ● Commodity prices supported by supply constraints and solid demand from emerging economies. 31
  • 32. Fixed income flows into emerging market funds 32
  • 33. Emerging market equity’s weight in MSCI All Countries Index %, weight in index 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 33
  • 34. Key SA macro themes for 2011 ● SA consumer activity set to improve in 2011, helped by real wage increases and growth in consumer credit ● Inflation and interest rates expected to drift sideways for most of 2011, but concerns about food inflation on the rise. ● Fixed investment spending expected to remain subdued for most of 2011 except for some public sector projects. A pick-up in private sector investment is a theme for 2012 ● SA policy debate remains a focus, including nationalisation, inflation targeting, Rand strength, land claims, NHI. Don’t except much actual change ● Rand remains well supported over the coming months, but the factors supporting the Rand should slowly dissipate in 2011 34
  • 35. SA growth in consumer spending vs disposable income %, q/q 13 12 11 Disposable Income 10 9 8 7 Consumer spending 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Debt servicing costs at historical lows 35
  • 36. SA consumer credit R billion, month-on-month, 3-month moving average 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 36
  • 37. Growth in private sector fixed investment spending vs prime interest rates %y/y % 20 5 18 16 7 Private sector investment (lhs) 14 9 12 10 11 8 6 13 4 15 2 0 17 -2 -4 19 -6 -8 Prime interest rates (rhs) 21 -10 23 -12 -14 25 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Current level of interest rates should result in 37 more investment spending into 2012
  • 38. SA fixed investment spending by institutional group Index Q1 2003 = 100 480 Public corporations 440 400 360 320 280 240 General government 200 160 Private sector 120 80 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 38
  • 39. Portfolio positioning summary Portfolio • Equities remain our preferred asset class Asset Class Weight % Benchmark Weight % Current • Notably global equities SA Equities 58.9 60 • We have down-weight bonds SA Property 3.6 0 • Bearish on global bonds SA Bonds 6.1 25 • Retained SA listed property as a fixed interest proxy – SA Cash 16.7 0 distribution growth and stable bond yields Global 14.4 9 Equities • 12 month cash return of 6.4% favorable relative to bonds Global 0.0 6 Bonds 39
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