Presentation by Alberto Assis dos Reis, CEMIG, at the Delft-FEWS International User Days 2020, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2020. Thursday, 5 November 2020.
Balasore Best It Company|| Top 10 IT Company || Balasore Software company Odisha
DSD-INT 2020 Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower generation in Brazil
1. Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting
for hydropower generation in Brazil
Alberto Assis dos Reis
Chief Hydrology Engineer
Delft-FEWS User Days November 5th
2. Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower
generation in Brazil
Flow forecast for more than 160 HPP in Brazil
3 sources of uncertainty
1. The observed precipitation
2. The precipitation forecast
3. The hydrological modeling
• The spot market energy price
• Long-term energy trading strategies
3. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG
Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower
generation in Brazil
1. The observed precipitation uncertainty
• Combine two sources (TRMM-MERGE and CPC)
weighted by the individual uncertainty
E
4. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG
Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower
generation in Brazil
2. The forecast precipitation uncertainty
• Ensemble of models
• Bias correction using Quantile Mapping method
• Seamless forecast
5. Strategies to deal with the uncertainty at FEWS CEMIG
Dealing with uncertainties in flow forecasting for hydropower
generation in Brazil
3. The hydrological modeling uncertainty
• Dressing forecast technique – to correct the
calibration systematic bias
• Data assimilation – output error correction
method