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DSD-INT 2020 Radar rainfall nowcasting techniques for operational water management

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Presentation by Ruben Imhoff, Deltares, at the Delft-FEWS International User Days 2020, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2020. Monday, 2 November 2020.

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DSD-INT 2020 Radar rainfall nowcasting techniques for operational water management

  1. 1. Radar rainfall nowcasting techniques for operational water management An opportunity for your operational systems? RUBEN IMHOFF1,2 THANKS TO: CLAUDIA BRAUER 1, AART OVEREEM 1,3, HIDDE LEIJNSE3, KLAAS-JAN VAN HEERINGEN 2, ALBRECHT WEERTS1,2 & REMKO UIJLENHOET1 1 W A G E N I N G E N U N I V E R S I T Y - 2 D E L T A R E S - 3 R O Y A L N E T H E R L A N D S M E T E O R O L O G I C A L I N S T I T U T E ( K N M I )
  2. 2. A short introduction to nowcasting Aangepaste versie van : Germann et al., J. Atmos. Sc., 2006
  3. 3. An example nowcast for the Netherlands Reference Rainymotion DenseRotation
  4. 4. Zooming in on a catchment Example for the area around catchment the Regge (957 km2 - east of the Netherlands)
  5. 5. Some conclusions: based on a large sample analysis of nowcasting techniques for 1,533 events Skill was found to depend on: 1) Event type and duration: Increasing for longer events, skilfull lead times range from 25 min (1-h events) to 116 min (24-h) 2) Season: Decreasing skill towards summer 3) Location: Increasing in the downwind direction 4) Catchment size: Increasing with larger catchment size Average absolute error per season
  6. 6. Current work: hydrological analysis of the 1533 events using Delft-FEWS Reference pySTEPS deterministic (S-PROG) pySTEPS probabilistic +15 hours ahead Dwarsdiep (Noorderzijlvest)
  7. 7. Do you want to know more? Join the break-out session on radar rainfall estimation and nowcasting tools (today 17:05 – 18:00)! • From reflectivity to rainfall rate • Pre- and post-processing of radar images • Nowcasting • Usage in Delft-FEWS Ruben.Imhoff@deltares.nl

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