A presentation held in Nordic Innovation House Palo Alto by Johannes Koponen and Aleksi Neuvonen in the seminar Backcasting Transformation: Smart + Sustainable Cities in 2040.
8. 2016 2040
How can we avoid
undesirable futures?
How should we harness potential
of technological and social
innovations for making desirable
futures to happen?
What impact should these goals
and visions have on our lifestyles
and expectations on the future?
Desirable
Futures
Possible
Futures
9. 1. Disruptive technological opportunities are shaping
cities radically
2. Yet even more important is how cities tackle
wicked problems: become carbon neutral,
decrease resource consumption, avoid congestion
and alleviate segregation
3. This requires combination of top-down and bottom-
up solutions
4. Human experience matters.
Changing cities: 4 takeaways
12. ”We thought that the old recipes
of Nokia would work also in the
new world. /-/ Nokia looked at
the sales of past months when
we should have taken a look at
what is happening in 2020.”
Jorma Ollila
13. “Right to security,
right to health,
right to learning.
All these three
change
fundamentally.”
Risto Siilasmaa,
Chairman of the Board, Nokia
14. Foresight is about alternatives
•We do foresight to imagine visions of
otherness
(alternative futures).
•If no such representations exist, there
would be no actions, just reactions.“Man
acts, not ‘because…’ but ‘in order
to…’” (von Jhering 1914).
15. WHY WE DO SCENARIOS?
• Scenarios help decision making by revealing possible futures.
Present
Image of future #1
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Possible Futures
Image of future #2
Image of future #3
• Scenarios show a logical chain of events that demonstrate how
future events are linked
18. Present
Image of future #1
Image of future #2
Image of future #3
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
FORECASTING VIEW
Scenarios
Scenarios
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
EMISSIONS
-40% GLOBALLY
Image of future #1
Image of future #2
Image of future #3
Present
BACKCASTING VIEW
19. Forecasting
• Causality and determinism
• Dominant trends
• Need to adapt and survive
Backcasting
• Causality and intentions
• Desirable futures
• Need to guide transformation
FORECASTING VIEW
25. 1. We need to think long term (over 10 years)
2. Business and cities need positive goals
to create positive change and flourish
3. Backcasting helps to navigate beyond and
with disruptive changes
Positive futures
and Backcasting:
3 takeaways
27. – A NOVEL WAY TO DEVELOP CITIES
#smartcity #urban #transformation #renewal #foresight #cocreation #testing
#smartups #services #energy #retrofitting #startup #walkability #nordic
NORDIC CITIES BEYOND
DIGITAL DISRUPTION
28. Home delivery
Smart
offices
Ride sharing
Low-
carbon
food
Urban farming
Shared spaces
Smart metering
Pop up stores
Mobility-as-a-
service
Sharing economy
Street food
Repair
services
Smart home
Gamification
Geolocating
Property
management
Crowd funding
P2P commerce
Neigborhood
apps
Co-working
spaces
Fab lab
Free
floating
vehicle
services
Connected
vehicles
Crowd
sourced
logistics
Cargo bikes
E-bikes
Personal data
services
Microwork
Turnkey
energy
solutions
Heating-as-a-
service
Solarenergy-as-
a-service
Social
cooking
Super
small
homes
Co-working
homes
SMART
MOBILITY
SMART
BUILDING
SMART
PRODUCTION
33. 2035 20402030202520202015
LANDSCAPE
LEVEL
AUSTERITY
MINDSET NEW WORLD ORDER
OF SOLIDARITY
RENEWABLES
BOOM GREEN
GROWTH
HIGH TRUST ON
NATION STATES
GREEN
JOBS
GLOBAL PRICE ON
EMISSIONS
SEARCH FOR
New Growth
CIRCULAR
ECONOMY
GLOBAL EMISSIONS
HAVE DECREASED
BY 50%
REGIME LEVEL
CLEANTECH IS DEFINED
AS THE FOCUS OF HIGHER
EDUCATION
STRICT ENERGY EFFICIENCY
STANDARDS ARE SET
FOR HOMES
NEW
CLIMATE
TREATY LAHTI ADJUSTS ITS
POLICY TO THE NEW
CLIMATE TREATY
ENERGY SOLUTIONS BY
SMARTUPS ARE BOUGHT
BY LARGE CORPORATIONS
SMART HOME SOLUTIONS
EXPERIENCE A BOOM
SUPERMARKETS
ARE TURNED INTO
HIGHLY AUTOMATED
STORAGE SPACES
RIDESHARING BECOMES PART
OF THE REGIONAL/NATIONAL
TRANSPORT SYSTEMLAHTI ENERGIA TAKES
A LEADING ROLE IN SOLAR
ENERGY PRODUCTION
LAHTI CARRIES OUT
MAJOR RETROFITTING AND
REFURBISHING PROJECTS
THE TRAMLINE IS
TAKEN INTO USE
LAHTI IS A VITAL
AND ATTRACTIVE
CARBON NEUTRAL
CITY
Global Deal in Lahti
NICHE LEVEL
LAHTI RECEIVES EU
INVESTMENT/FUNDING
FOR NEW CONSUMER
CLEANTECH CENTRE
SOLAR PANELS ARE INSTALLED
ON THE ROOFTOPS OF THE CITY
CENTRE.
TOGETHER WITH OTHER CITIES, LAHTI
REGIONAL TRANSPORT LAUNCHES A
MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE APPLICATION
FIRST SUPERMARKET CHAIN
STARTS CROWDSOURCED
HOME DELIVERY WITH A
RIDESHARING START-UP
A LAHTI-BASED RESEARCH
CENTRE BECOMES KNOWN
AS AN INTERNATIONALLY
LEADING TESTBED FOR
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
2025 2030 2035 20402020
35. Home delivery
Smart
offices
Ride sharing
Low-
carbon
food
Urban farming
Shared spaces
Smart metering
Pop up stores
Mobility-as-a-
service
Sharing economy
Street food
Repair
services
Smart home
Gamification
Geolocating
Property
management
Crowd funding
P2P commerce
Neigborhood
apps
Co-working
spaces
Fab lab
Free
floating
vehicle
services
Connected
vehicles
Crowd
sourced
logistics
Cargo bikes
E-bikes
Personal data
services
Microwork
Turnkey
energy
solutions
Heating-as-a-
service
Solarenergy-as-
a-service
Social
cooking
Super
small
homes
Co-working
homes
SMART
MOBILITY
SMART
BUILDING
SMART
PRODUCTION
40. Two groups in the main hall, one in the second floor,
one in the meeting room.
Each of the 4 groups divides into 3 subgroups during
the first task:
•mobility
•energy
•lifestyles
Divide into four groups
41. 2040 Mobility
Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. Describe a typical daily trip she travels.
What is the biggest change in mobility compared to this day?
2040 Energy
Describe the energy production and use in Palo Alto in two pie charts. What is the biggest
change in energy use and production by 2040?
2040 Lifestyles
Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. What does she do daily (at work, home,
etc.). What is the biggest change in lifestyles by 2040?
Goal: -95% GHG emissions in Palo Alto 2040
10 minutes to answer in subgroups
42. Combine your subgroup ideas to the whole group.
Write your ideas in post-its and attach them to the
timeline poster.
What is Palo Alto all about in 2040?
43. Assuming the requirements of your future timeline
around 2040, what should happen already around
2026?
Attach post-its to the posters.
What can happen already by 2026?
44. Assuming the progress between 2026-2026, what
should start happening already now?
Attach post-its to the posters.
What should start already now?
5 minutes to answer individually
45. Let’s compare scenarios
Based on scenario what would be the single
most important investment, shift in regulation or
other change to promote now?
46. CO-CREATIONAL FUTURES PROCESS
Exploration
Execution
Expertise & Empathy
WE AIM FOR
METHODS
TO DO IT
Delphi
Desktop
research
Futures table
and states
Expert
interviews
Scenario
writing
Backcasting
Policy
recommen
dations
Presenting
the scenarios
Business
models
Visualization
applyanalyzetestspeculateideate
scan
environmentunderstand